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© OECD/IEA 2018
Prospects for Global Energy Markets and
Energy Sustainability
IEA
Dr. Fatih Birol
Executive Director, IEA
G20 Energy Ministerial – San Carlos de Bariloche, 15 June 2018
© OECD/IEA 2018
Global oil demand remains robust
Global oil demand is set to rise by 1.4 mb/d in 2019, with China and India accounting for almost half of the increase; petrochemical feedstocks are becoming increasingly important drivers of oil demand
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2
2005-2014
mb/d
2016 2017 2018 20192015
Growth in global oil demand
© OECD/IEA 2018
Industry & buildings have taken over from the power sector as the drivers of gas demand; China accounted for 30% of the increase in global gas demand in 2017
Growth in global gas demand
Natural gas – life in the fast lane
bcm
2000-2016average
2017
30
60
90
120 Industry, buildings & others
Power generation
© OECD/IEA 2018
Renewables accounted for almost half of the growth in electricity generation in 2017 and are set to meet a higher share of the growth going forward
Annual electricity generation growth by technology
Renewables growing rapidly in the power sector
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Renewables Other sources Renewables Other sources
Annual average (2000-16) 2017
Other sources
Hydro and other renewables
Wind
Solar PV
TWh
© OECD/IEA 2018
Wind & solar making strong inroads, but new challenges may emerge
Four phases of wind and solar integration
© OECD/IEA 2018
After remaining flat for 3 years, global CO2 emissions rose again in 2017, to an all-time high
Global energy-related CO2 emissions
After plateauing for 3 years, global emissions are on the rise again
CO2 emissions
Increase in 2017
5
10
15
20
25
30
35Gt CO2
© OECD/IEA 2018
How are clean energy technologies progressing?
Power
Renewable power
Solar PV
Onshore wind
Offshore wind
Hydropower
Bioenergy
Geothermal
Concentrating solar
power
Ocean
Nuclear power
Natural gas-fired power
Coal-fired power
CCS in power
Industry
Cement
Chemicals
Steel
Aluminum
Pulp and paper
CCS in industry
Transport
Electric vehicles
International shipping
Fuel economy
Trucks
Transport biofuels
Aviation
Rail
Buildings
Building codes
Heating
Cooling
Lighting
Appliances &
equipment
Data centres and networks
IEA’s latest tracking of 38 clean-energy technologies reveals, 4 are on track, 23 have to improve & 11 are off track
© OECD/IEA 2018
Cooling is driving electricity demand growth
Share of world electricity demand growth to 2050
Space cooling
21%
Appliances
15%Heating
7%
Other buildings 15%
Industry 32% Other
10%
Today, 90% of households in the US & Japan have air conditioners versus 32% in developing Asia; Electricity demand for air conditioning could more than triple by 2050
© OECD/IEA 2018
LED lighting is on track, thanks to government policy & innovation
LEDs are on track to dominate residential lighting by around 2020; 3.3 billion LEDs were installed in 2017, underpinned by falling costs & government policy
Global residential lighting sales by type
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
LEDs Fluorescents Incandescents & other
© OECD/IEA 2018
Cost for CO2 capture and storage or utilisation in industry
CCUS is one of few solutions to cut emissions in industry; 450 Mt CO2 can be abated per year for under $40/t
Carbon capture, utilisation & storage is crucial for industry
0
50
100
150
200
Under $10 $10 - 20 $20 - 30 $30 - 40
MtCO2/yr
$ per tonne CO2 captured
© OECD/IEA 2018
Clean energy R&D investment is finally on the rise…
Investment in clean energy R&D rose in 2017, but more is needed
0
5
10
15
20
25
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E
North America Europe Asia and Oceania Rest of World
Total public spending on clean energy technology RD&D
Billion USD
© OECD/IEA 2018
China was a remarkable success story for electrification, bringing access to hundreds of millions in record time; India achieved electricity access for all its villages in 2018; today the challenge is concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa
Population without electricity access
Electrification success stories, but need to focus on sub-Saharan Africa
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
1985 2000 2017 2030
mill
ion
Rest of World
Sub-Saharan Africa
India
China
© OECD/IEA 2018
Conclusions
Global energy markets are undergoing fundamental changes, with major
implications for trade flows, investment, energy security & geopolitics
Faster energy-technology innovation can overcome sustainability challenges, while
spurring economic growth & improving energy security
Achieving universal access to electricity and clean cooking is imperative for global
economic growth, stability, health and gender equality
The IEA can help the G20 make well-founded energy decisions, by providing timely
data, rigorous analysis, an all-of-technology approach & real-world solutions