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© OECD/IEA 2013
The world energy scene today
Some long-held tenets of the energy sector are being rewritten
Countries are switching roles: importers are becoming exporters…
… and exporters are among the major sources of growing demand
New supply options reshape patterns of trade
But long-term solutions to global challenges remain scarce
Renewed focus on energy efficiency, but CO2 emissions continue to rise
Fossil-fuel subsidies increased to $544 billion in 2012
1.3 billion people lack electricity, 2.6 billion lack clean cooking facilities
Energy prices add to the pressure on policymakers
Sustained period of high oil prices without parallel in market history
Large, persistent regional price differences for gas & electricity
© OECD/IEA 2013
The engine of energy demand growth moves to South Asia
Primary energy demand, 2035 (Mtoe)
China is the main driver of increasing energy demand in the current decade, but India takes over in the 2020s as the principal source of growth
4%
65%
10%
8%
8% 5%
OECD
Non-OECD Asia
Middle East
Africa
Latin America
Eurasia
Share of global growth 2012-2035
480
Brazil 1 540
India
1 000 Southeast
Asia
4 060
China
1 030
Africa
2 240 United States 440
Japan
1 710
Europe 1 370
Eurasia
1 050 Middle East
© OECD/IEA 2013
A mix that is slow to change
Growth in total primary energy demand
Today's share of fossil fuels in the global mix, at 82%, is the same as it was 25 years ago; the strong rise of renewables only reduces this to around 75% in 2035
500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000
Nuclear
Oil
Renewables
Coal
Gas
Mtoe
1987-2011
2011-2035
the strong rise of renewables only reduces this to around 75% in 2035
© OECD/IEA 2013
Non-OECD
OECD
Emissions off track in the run-up to the 2015 climate summit in France
Cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions
Non-OECD countries account for a rising share of emissions, although 2035 per capita levels are only half of OECD
200
400
600
800 Gt
1900 -1929
1930 -1959
1960 -1989
1990 -2012
2013 -2035
OECD
Non-OECD
Total emissions 1900-2035
51%
49%
© OECD/IEA 2013
China becomes the largest consumer of oil by 2030, as OECD oil use drops; demand is concentrated in transport, where diesel use surges by 5.5 mb/d, & petrochemicals
China becomes the largest consumer of oil by 2030, as OECD oil use drops;
Oil demand by region sector
Oil use grows, but in a narrowing set of markets
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
2012 2035
mb/d
China
India
Middle East
Other
Transport Petrochemicals Other sectors
OECD
Diesel
Gasoline
Other
80
85
90
95
100
105
2012 2035
mb/d
Transport Petrochemicals Other sectors
Diesel
Gasoline
Other
, & petrochemicals
© OECD/IEA 2013
More oil bypassing the refining system and new capacity in growing non-OECD markets piles pressure on existing refiners, especially in Europe
Oil demand Oil processed by refineries
New refinery capacity China
India
Middle East
Other
Turbulent times for the refining sector
Refinery capacity and operation
More oil bypassing the refining system
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
2012 2035
mb/d Oil bypassing refineries
Existing spare & excess
capacity
Spare & excess
capacity
with 10 mb/d at risk of closure by 2035
70
65
© OECD/IEA 2013
Two chapters to the oil production story
Contributions to global oil production growth
The United States (light tight oil) & Brazil (deepwater) step up until the mid-2020s,
Middle East
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 mb/d
2013-2025
Brazil
Rest of the world
Oil sands, extra-heavy oil, coal/gas-to-liquids, & other
Light tight oil
Conventional:
Unconventional:
2013-2025
2025-2035
but the Middle East is critical to the longer-term oil outlook
© OECD/IEA 2013
Brazil cuts a distinctive profile
Brazil oil production
Complex deepwater projects see Brazil joining the top ranks of global oil producers,
while the domestic power mix remains one of the least carbon-intensive in the world
1
2
3
4
5
6
2012 2025 2035
Other
Deepwater
mb/d Oil production:
Other renewables
Bioenergy
Hydropower
Nuclear
Fossil fuels
Electricity generation:
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Brazil World
Electricity mix by fuel, 2035
© OECD/IEA 2013
GW
Capacity to change?
Power generation capacity additions and retirements, 2013-2035
China & India together build almost 40% of the world’s new capacity; 60% of capacity additions in the OECD replace retired plants
400 600 800 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 000 200
United States
European Union
Japan
China
India
Middle East
Retirements
Additions Net additions
© OECD/IEA 2013
300
600
900
1 200
1 500
1 800
2 100 TWh
India
Latin America
Africa
ASEAN
Hydro
Other renewables
Wind
Solar PV
China
Hydro
Other renewables
Wind
Solar PV
Renewables power up around the world
Growth in electricity generation from renewable sources, 2011-2035
European Union
United States
Japan
Europe, Japan and United States
China India, Latin America, ASEAN and Africa
Hydro
Other renewables
Wind
Solar PV
The expansion of non-hydro renewables depends on subsidies;
additions of wind & solar have implications for power market design & costs
© OECD/IEA 2013
Renewables subsidies increased to $101 billion in 2012, more than half of which are in the European Union; renewables subsidies are set to more than double by 2035.
$101 billion
Renewables subsidies increased to $101 billion in 2012,
Renewable-energy subsidies by region in 2012
Increasing subsidies for increasing renewables
European Union
United States
China
India
Rest of the world
57%
21%
7%
13%
2%
renewables subsidies are set to more than double by 2035
© OECD/IEA 2013
3×
4×
5×
2003
Regional differences in natural gas prices narrow from today’s very high levels but remain large through to 2035; electricity price differentials also persist electricity price differentials also persist
2013 2035
Reduction from 2013
Who has the energy to compete?
Ratio of industrial energy prices relative to the United States
United States
2×
Japan European Union
China
Electricity Natural gas
2003
Japan European Union
China
© OECD/IEA 2013
Energy-intensive industries need to count their costs
Share of energy in total production costs for selected industries
Energy-intensive sectors worldwide account for around one-fifth of industrial value added, one-quarter of industrial employment and 70% of industrial energy use.
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Glass
Pulp & paper
Iron & steel
Cement
Aluminium
Fertilisers
Petrochemicals
© OECD/IEA 2013
An energy boost to the economy?
Share of global export market for energy-intensive goods
The US, together with key emerging economies, increases its export market share for energy-intensive goods, while the EU and Japan see a sharp decline
Today 36% 10% 7% 7% 3% 2%
European Union
United States China India Middle East
Japan
-3%
-10%
+3%
+2% +2% +1%
while the EU and Japan see a sharp decline
© OECD/IEA 2013
LNG from the United States can shake up gas markets
Indicative economics of LNG export from the US Gulf Coast (at current prices)
New LNG supplies accelerate movement towards a more interconnected global market, but high costs of transport between regions mean no single global gas price
Average import price
Liquefaction, shipping & regasification
United States price 3
6
9
12
15
18
To Asia
$/MBtu
3
6
9
12
To Europe
$/MBtu
but high costs of transport between regions mean no single global gas price
© OECD/IEA 2013
Orientation for a fast-changing energy world
China, then India, drive the growing dominance of Asia in global energy demand & trade
Technology is opening up new oil resources, but the Middle East remains central to the longer-term outlook
Regional price gaps & concerns over competitiveness are here to stay, but there are ways to react – with efficiency first in line
The transition to a more efficient, low-carbon energy sector is more difficult in tough economic times, but no less urgent