WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004 · WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004 4 11.2 59.1 204,000 4,907,000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 illicit drugs (opiates , cocaine, amphetamines) tobacco million DALYs lost 0 1,000,000

WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004

1

WORLD DRUG WORLD DRUG REPORTREPORT

20042004

presented by

Thomas Pietschmann

UNODC, Research and Analysis Section


2

OVERVIEW:

ALL DRUGS

CONSUMPTION


3

180

144.1

24.214 13.5

185

146.2

29.68.3 13.3 15.2 9.24.5 9.2

4.7%

3.7%

0.7%

0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%

0

40

80

120

160

200

All dru

gs

Canna

bisAm

phet

amin

es

Ecsta

sy

Cocain

e

Opia

tes

Heroin

mill

ion

peop

le

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

annu

al p

reva

lenc

e in

% o

f pop

ulat

ion

age

15-6

4

Drug us ers in the late 1990s (WDR 2000)

Drug us ers 2001-2003 (WDR 2004)

Estimates of annual prevalence of drug use at the global level in the late 1990s and in 2001-2003


4

11.2

59.1

204,000

4,907,000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

illic it drugs (opiates ,cocaine, amphetamines )

tobaccom

illio

n D

AL

Ys

lost

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

sub

stan

ce a

bu

se r

elat

ed d

eath

s

Dis ability adjus ted life-years los t (left s cale)

Subs tance abus e related deaths (right s cale)

Substance abuse related deaths and Disability Adjusted Life-Years (DALYs) lost

Extent of illicit drug and tobacco use, 2001-2003 (or latest year available)

* Population age 15 and above

58

185 (4.2%*)

1270 (29%*)

0

500

1000

1500

illicit drugs tobacco

mill

ion

peop

le

tobaccoother illicit drugsopiates, cocaine, amphetamines


5

Changes in drug use as perceived by national experts, 1992-2002

0

1

2

3

4

9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1 0 2

Dru

g A

buse

Tre

nd In

dex

Cannabis consumption trend:

(Drug Abuse Trend Index)

0

1

2

3

4

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

Dru

g Ab

use

Tren

d In

dex

ATS consumption trend:

(Drug Abuse Trend Index)

0

10

20

30

40

50

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

(net

-) n

umbe

r of c

ount

ries

Cocaine use trend: Number of countries reporting increases less number of

countries reporting declining levels of cocaine use

Heroin abuse trend: Number of countries reporting increases less number of

countries reporting declining levels of abuse

0

10

20

30

40

50

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

(net

-) n

umbe

r of c

ount

ries


6

Drug abuse trends in 2001 and 2002: Number of countries reporting increases less number of countries reporting declines

46

28

17 17 16 15 1412

86

4 3 2 2 1 1 0

(1)

3836

30

14

21

25

2118

2219

5 53 2 1

3 4

0

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50

Canna

bis he

rbCoc

aine

- typEcs

tasy

Benzo

diaze

pines

Canna

bis res

inAll o

piates

Crack c

ocain

eHero

inAmph

etamine

Metham

pheta

mineKha

tOpiu

mMorp

hine

Barbitu

rates

GHB

LSD

Other h

alluc

inoge

nsMeth

aqua

lone

Net results 2002 Net results 2001


7

Main problem drugs (as reflected in treatment demand), 1998-2002 (or latest year available)


8

Other7%

ATS8%

Cocaine3%

Opiates72%

Cannabis10%

Other10%

ATS10%

Cocaine4%

Opiates61%

Cannabis15%

EUROPE

Main problem drugs as reflected in treatment demand

1995-1998 (WDR 2000) 1998-2002 (WDR 2004)

Sources: UNODC, Annual Reports Questionnaire Data; Council of Europe (Pompidou Group).

Unweighted average of treatment demand of 30 European countries

Unweighted average of treatment demand of 33 Asian countries


9

USA - treatment admissions (excl. alcohol) by primary substance of abuse, 1992-2002

42.4%

22.5%

30.8%28.9%

26.4%

14.7%

3.5%

11.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002% o

f all

adm

issi

ons

(exc

l. al

coho

l)

Cocaine

Opiates

Marijuana

ATS

NORTH AMERICA – MAIN MARKET

Source: SAMHSA, Treatment Episode Dataset (TEDS), National Admissions to Substance Abuse Treatment Services, May 2004.


10


11


12

OVERVIEW:

ALL DRUGS

TRAFFICKING


13

Global seizures in weight equivalents, 2000-2002


14

Importance of EU-25 for global drug seizures (2002) 68% 66%

21% 18%13%

3%7.3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Canna

bis res

in

Ecstasy

Heroin

Ampheta

mines

Cocain

eCan

nabis h

erb

Popula

tion

prop

ortio

n

Importance of NAFTA (USA, Mexico, Canada) for global drug seizures (2002)

58%

32%

12% 7% 6% 6.8%0.1%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%

Canna

b is herb

Cocaine

Ecstasy

Amphetamine

s

HeroinCan

nab is re

sinPopula

tion

prop

ortio

n

Patterns of main consumer markets (as reflected in seizure data)


15Source: UNODC, Annual Reports Questionnaire Data/ DELTA.

Trendaverage annual change in seizures, 1992-2002

2.2%

2.5%

4.9%

6.2%

6.9%

7.0%

7.4%

9.3%

10.1%

19.0%

20.4%

27.1%

-19.6%

-20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0%

LSD*

Methaqualone

Cocaine

Cannabis resin

Opium

Cannabis plant

Heroin

Cannabis herb

Coca leaf

Morphine

Amphetamines

Depressants

Ecstasy*

* seizues in units

10-year trend: 1992-2002 (global level)


16

OPIUM / HEROIN


17

-6%

-40%

168,600180,200

142,100

222,000237,800

281,600

-29%


18

-23%

-65%

-53%

Development of opium poppy cultivation in South-East Asia, 1990-2003

210,400

128,600 123,100

96,300

74,200

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

hect

ares

Myanmar Lao PDR Thailand Vietnam Trend

158,300

-23%

-53%

-65%


19

76% of global

17% of global

3% of global

Global production in 2003:

4765 metric tons of opium (equivalent to 477 mt of

heroin)


20

Evolution of Afghan opium poppy cultivation since 2000

20002000 82,000 ha82,000 ha

20012001 8,000 ha8,000 ha

20022002 74,000 ha74,000 ha

20032003 80,000 ha 80,000 ha (+ 8%)(+ 8%)


21

Global illicit opium production, 1980-2003

4765

1600

44904690

57605620

3760

1460

1040

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

600019

8019

8119

8219

8319

8419

8519

8619

8719

8819

8919

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

03

met

ric to

ns

+6%

-17%


22

510**

4770 (rounded )

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1907/08 2003

opiu

m p

rodu

ctio

n in

met

ric to

ns

Illicit opium productionLicit opium production

Tot a l: 5280 t ons (rounde d)

Tot a l: 30,000 t ons* (rounde d)

Opium production in 1907/1908* and 2003 (excl. poppy straw)

* Licit opium production in 1907/08: China: 22,200 tons, India 5,100 tons, Indochina 1200 tons, Persia 600 tons, Turkey 560 tons;

** Official forecast of licit production for 2003 by INCB; illicit production: UNODC/ICMP survey reports.

Sources: International Opium Commission, Shanghai 1909, INCB, 2003 Narcotic Drugs, New York 2004, UNODC/ICMP narcotic crops survey reports 2003/2004.

- 80%


23


24

Heroin:

EU-15: 1.21 million or 0.48%

EU-25: 1.41 million or 0.46%


25

Heroin:

EU-15: 1.21 million or 0.48%

EU-25: 1.41 million or 0.46%

EUROPE: 2.75 mio or 0.51%

Opiates:



26

(10)

0

10

20

30

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

increasing lessdecliningtrends

increasing lessstable ordecliningtrends

Heroin abuse trend: No. of countries reporting increases less No. of countries

reporting declining / stable levels of heroin abuse


27

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

*20

02*

Num

ber

* preliminary results

0

1

2

3

4

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

drug

abu

se tr

end

inde

x

… stabilization/decline of heroin abuse in Western Europe …

Source: UNODC, ARQ. Sources: EMCDDA, Data Library and UNODC, ARQ.

Heroin consumption trend in Western Europe –

based on national experts perceptions

Acute drug related death in the EU-15, 1985-2002

(mostly related to abuse of heroin)

-18.5%


28

… heroin shortage in Australia and its consequencesA us tra lia

he ro in a bus e : a nnua l pre v a le nc e

0.2%

0.4%

0.8%

0.2%

0 .0 %

0 .2 %

0 .4 %

0 .6 %

0 .8 %

1.0 %

199 3 19 9 5 19 9 8 2 0 0 1

Source: AIHW, Statistics on Drug Use in Australia 2002.

Australia: Rate of opiate overdose deaths among Australians aged 15-44 years, per million inhabitants

Crime trends in New South-Wales, Australia, July 1999-Dec. 2002

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

Jul-99 Jul-00 Jul-01 Jul-02

Bur

glar

ry c

ases

0

400

800

1200

1600

Rob

bery

cas

es

Burglary cases Robbery cases

heroin shortage

Source: Source: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, NSW Recorded Crime Statistics

Australia Proportion of adult males arrested in Parramatta (Sydney) and in other selected sites* across Australia testing positive for opiates

16%11%10%

46%

18%

30%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Q31999

Q4 Q12000

Q2 Q32000

Q4 Q12001

Q2 Q32001

Q4 Q12002

Q2 Q32002

Q4

perc

ent t

estin

g po

sitiv

e

Parramatta(Sydney)

4-sitesaverage*

* unw eighted average of quarterly results from 4 sites: Parramatta (New South Wales), Bankstow n (NSW), Perth (Western Australia) and Southport (Queensland)

heroin drought

Source: Drug Use Monitoring in Australia (DUMA)


29

COCA/COCAINE


30

56% of total cultivation- 16%

29% of total cultivation– 5%

15% of total cultivation

2002: 173,100 ha

2003: 153,800 ha

Change: - 11%


31

153,800

173,100

210,900

221,300220,600

190,800

-11%

-30%


32

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

heca

tre

Coca cultivation Spraying and manual (voluntary) eradication

Coca bush cultivation in Colombia

-16%

-47%163,000160,100

144,800

102,000

86,000

101,800

79,400

67,200

50,90044,700


33

1999200020012002

Putumayo – Caqueta: Decreasing

Guaviare - Meta: Decreasing

Norte de Santander - Bolivar: Decreasing

Nariño: Increasing

2003Colombia: Regional trends1999 - 2003

1999 21,000 ha2003 9,000 ha (- 57 %)

1999 40,000 ha2003 29,000 ha (- 27%)

1999 4,000 ha2003 17,600 ha (+345%)

1999 82,000 ha2003 14,800 ha (-82%)


34

Potential illicit cocaine production 1980-2003

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

met

ric to

ns

Lowest level of cocaine production

since 1989Cocaine production level in 2003

655

950-31%

-18%800

67%

9%

24%


35

31%

48%

13%


36

Cocaine:

EU-15: 2.9 million or 1.15%



37

0.2%(2000)Cocaine:





38

4.8%

of

-23%

-63%

of0

10

20

30

40

50

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

(net

-) n

umbe

r of c

ount

ries

Cocaine use trend: No. of countries reporting increases less No. of

countries reporting declining levels of cocaine use


39

Germany Annual prevalence of cocaine use among 18-59 year olds and

number of newly identified cocaine users

0.8%0.9%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.1%an

nual

pre

vale

nce

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

num

ber o

f new

ly re

gist

ered

us

ers

Annual prevalence

New users

Annua l pre va le nce 0.3% 0.8% 0.9%

Ne w use rs 567 684 832 1760 2438 2308 2467 2600 3234 4307 4251 3930 5,144 5691 5662 5327 4872.0 4933 4346

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990* 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

* Tentative estimate for Germany as a w hole (West-Germany, 12-39 years old: 0.4% in 1990).


40

AMPHETAMINE-TYPE STIMULANTS

(ATS)• METHAMPHETAMINE• AMPHETAMINE• ECSTASY


41

Trends in production / trafficking in ATS

Seizures of amphetamine-type stimulants 1980-2002

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

kilo

gram

equ

ival

ents

MDMA ('Ecstasy)', MDA, MDME and otherhallucinogens excl. LSD

Methamphetamine, amphetamine,methcathinone and other syntheticstimulants

Detection of clandestine laboratories at the global level, 1990-2002

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Num

ber o

f dis

man

tled

labo

rato

ries ATS Other

83% of dismantled laboratories

18%


42

Origin of methamphetamine in 2002

in South-East Asia:

• Myanmar

• China

• Philippines

in North America:

• USA

• Mexico

Origin of ecstasy in 2002

Main sources of ATS


43


44

Amphetamines




45

Amphetamines





46


47

Ecstasy:




48

Ecstasy:



EUROPE: 3 mio or 0.6%


49

Amphetamines consumption trends in 2001 and 2002

15%

53%

32%

37%

53%

21%

45%

34%

39%

50%

9%

11%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

decline

stable

increase

in % of countries reporting on specific ATS

2001 Amphetamine

2002 Amphetamine

2001Methamphetamine

2002Methamphetamine


50

… signs of stabilization/decline of amphetamines use in Western Europe


51

Global ecstasy consumption trends, 2001 (n = 56)

some increase

36%

stable25%

some decline

5%

large increase

29%

large decline

5%

Global ecstasy consumption trends, 2002 (n = 53)

large decline

4%

large increase

2%some

decline13%

stable34%

some increase

47%


52

CANNABIS


53

Tentative estimates of cannabis herb production and trends

32,000

Cannabis production: > 140 countries


54

Tentative estimate of cannabis resin production and main source countries

7,400 metric tons


55

66% 2001/02

23% 2001/02


56

68% in 2002


57

Cannabis:




58

Cannabis:





59

0

1

2

3

4

91 92 9 3 9 4 95 9 6 97 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1 02

Dru

g A

buse

Tre

nd In

dex

Cannabis consumption trend:Based on national experts’ perceptions


60

0.0%

0.3%

0.6%

0.9%

1.2%

1.5%

1.8%

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

Ann

ual p

reva

lenc

e am

ong

12th

gra

ders

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Inci

denc

e am

ong

the

gene

ral

popu

latio

n

Incidence of cannabis use among the general population age 12 and aboveAnnual prevalence of cannabis use among 12th gradersAnnual prevalence of all drug use among 12th graders Trend - incidence

NORTH AMERICA: Trends of incidence and prevalence of drug use in the USA, 1965-2003

Sources: NIDA, Monitoring the Future and SAMHSA, 2002 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, Sept. 2003.


61

Summary of data on extent and trends of the drug problem

• long-term decline in opiate production/consumption (80% less than at the beginning of 20th century); opium production in South-East Asia fell by more than 50% between 1990 and 2003. Consumption stable in Western Europe and North America; stabilization (or reduced increases) reported from C.I.S. countries in 2002; reductions reported from several South-East Asian countries and Australia. Main problem: opium production in Afghanistan; further increases expected for 2004;

• less than 5% of the youth & adult population use drugs (about ½% use heroin or cocaine, the two main problem drugs); close to 30% smoke tobacco;

• global cocaine production fell by 30% between 1999 and 2003, and by 18% between 2002 and 2003; mainly due to strengthened control efforts in Colombia; US student surveys show decline in cocaine use of 23% between 1999 and 2003 and more than 60% between 1985 and 2003; however, increases in South America and Europe; but peak in some West European countries may have been reached;• global cannabis production appears to have increased over the last decade and is now back to the levels of the late 1980s; UNODC’s Drug Abuse Trend Index showed an increase over the last decade and an acceleration of the upward trend over the 2000-2002 period. Trend data suggest ongoing increases in Europe, South America, Africa and in a number of countries in Asia. The market seems to have stabilized, in contrast, in North America, Oceania and some countries of South-East Asia; • global ATS production and consumption increased over the last decade. (Laboratory detections, seizures and UNODC’s Drug Abuse Trend Index point in this direction). Following massive increases of seizures in the 1990s, ATS seizures declined, however, over the 2000-2002 period. Increases in the use of ATS continued being reported from a number of countries in South-East Asia, but markets of Western Europe and North America remained largely stable in 2002. Ecstasy continued rising in several developing countries but stabilized in several West European countries and declined in the USA and Canada in 2002/2003.


62

POLICY

Governments are committed to the multilateral drug control system and its objectives

• the UNGASS objectives

Conceptual advances offer prospects of better results • balanced approach

• shared responsibility

• society-wide approach

• sustainable development context

• integrated approach (the drugs and crime nexus, the new crime conventions)

• dynamic approach (better understanding drug markets and drug epidemics)


63

WORLD DRUG WORLD DRUG REPORTREPORT

20042004

Documents

WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004 · WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004 4 11.2 59.1 204,000 4,907,000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 illicit drugs (opiates , cocaine, amphetamines) tobacco million DALYs lost 0 1,000,000