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Workshop on Population Projections. 29 October-2 November 2012 Pretoria, South Africa. Session 1: Introduction. Introduction to the workshop. The need for and the utility of population projections Population projections for Africa: Background and challenges. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Workshop on Population Projections
29 October-2 November 2012Pretoria, South Africa
Session 1: Introduction
• Introduction to the workshop.• The need for and the utility of population
projections• Population projections for Africa: Background
and challenges.• Getting ready: Software, data, internet
Introduction to the workshop.Agenda of the workshop• The workshop has 10 Sessions, most of which are presentations combined with
hands-on exercises and interaction with the trainers and among participants. There will be time for participants to work on projects and exercises. There will be an evaluation of the workshop by participants at the last day of the workshop.1. Session 1: Introduction2. Session 2: Establishing the Base Population3. Session 3: Background and First Steps4. Session 4: Projecting the levels of mortality, fertility and migration5. Session 5: Projecting the age patterns of mortality, fertility and
migration6. Session 6: Introduction to Population Projections7. Session 7: Population projections for national populations8. Session 8: Population projections for sub-national, sectoral or small
populations9. Session 10: Final Matters
The need for and the utility of population projections
• The future is unknowable…Why population projection?
• Who needs/uses population Projections?• Producers of population projections
The future is unknowable…Why population projection?
Planning for people’s needs• Planning for education
• Planning for health system: Doctors, nurses, hospital beds
• Planning for old age: aging
• Planning for employment: demographic dividend
• Planning for infrastructure: Roads, Airports,
• Planning for housing: urbanization
But: We know some basic demographic trends
Demographic processes are long-term• Lasting impact of past and current changes
• Momentum
No equilibrium yet• There are profound changes going on in all countries of the
world
Demographic transition as guiding principle• Countries move from high fertility and mortality to low
fertility and mortality – still in progress in many developing countries
The demographic transition animated
1 %
2 %
3 %
4 %
0 %
Growth rate
Transformation of age structures:=> From pyramid to (almost) rectangle.=> From young populations to older populations
World Population Ageing
Transformation of survival:=> From early deaths to late deaths.
Changing survival
What population projections can reveal
Planning for Education
Nigeria
Population growth rate
Aging
Urbanization
Urbanization
Who needs, who uses population Projections?
Main users• Governments (ministries of education, health,
planning, etc)• Regional and local governments• Private sector (demand, supply)
Who needs, who uses Population Projections?
Major area
Base data Total with projections
Total without projections
Total 1990-1994
1995-2004
Africa 7 23 30 26 56
Asia 2 15 17 33 50
Europe 2 30 32 16 48
Latin America and the Caribbean
4 22 24 22 46
Northern America 0 4 4 1 5
NUMBER OF COUNTRIES THAT HAVE CONDUCTED NATIONAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS
Producers of population projections
• Governments: NSO, other national institutions• Regional organizations: EUROSTAT, CELADE
(UN Regional Commission)• International organizations: UNPD (WPP, WUP
biennially)• Others: Private Sector, international research
institutions (IIASA)
Population projections for Africa: Background and challenges
Challenges: • Slow fertility transitions• HIV/AIDS, neglected tropical diseases• Urbanization• Data
Slow fertility transitions
Population growth
Aging
Urbanization
Urbanization
Urbanization
Urbanization
Data
The good news• Censuses are regularly held in almost all
countries in the world.• The 2010 Round of Censuses has so far
enumerated 88% of the world’s population in 184 censuses (As of 1 August 2012)http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/sources/census/2010_PHC/censusclockmore.htm
Data
The bad news• Vital registration is still a problem in most
developing countries. • Not just a challenge for professional
statisticians, it is a challenge to human rights• The scandal of invisibility: Little progress since
the 1970s.
WHO region
Deaths Births
1965–
1974
1975–
1984
1985–
1994
1995–
2004
1965–
1974
1975–
1984
1985–
1994
1995–
2004
Africa 2 4 2 7 7 7 9 5
Americas 69 66 64 61 58 55 53 53
Eastern Mediterranean 17 21 15 1 21 25 17 42
Europe 62 61 92 86 95 94 93 92
South-East Asia 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Western Pacific 12 11 10 13 12 14 13 18
Total 27 25 28 26 33 31 28 30
Source: Mahapatra et al. 2007, table 2
Percentage of population living in countries with complete civil registration systems
Analysis: Vital registration
Surveys or Civil Registration?
Getting ready: Software, data, internet
• Software used in the workshop• Textbooks, manuals• Data sources• Additional tools and data
Software used in the workshop
– Projection software• RUPEX v. 1.46
• Spectrum 4.5
– Demographic analysis tools• MORTPAK v. 4.2.
• PASEX
– General software• Excel, Word, PowerPoint etc.
Textbooks, manuals
– Siegel, Swanson 2004
– Preston et al. 2000
– Arriaga (1994 and later)
– United Nations Manuals
– Software Manuals
US Census Bureau: Arriaga
Textbooks
Data sources
– National data
– United Nations data (UNSD, UNPD)
– Other
UN Data sources: UNPD
http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/index.htm
Additional tools and data
– Demographic software• PADIS
http://www.padis-int.org/index.php?c=main&a=view&id=130&lan=en
• Applied Demographic Toolbox• http://www.demog.berkeley.edu/~eddieh/toolbox.html
– Demographic data • Human Mortality Database [www.mortality.org]• Human Fertility Database [www.humanfertility.org/]• Human Life-Table Database [www.lifetable.de/]• INDEPTH [www.indepth-network.org/]