Ethnic Population Projections for the UK and Local Areas, 2011-2061:

New Results for the Fourth Demographic Transition

ESRC, Ref ES/L013878/1

Evaluation, Revision and Extension of Ethnic Population

Projections – NewETHPOP

Jan 2015 - May 2016

HEIF, University of Leeds

Helping governments and businesses understand the ethnic

transition and use information on future ethnic populations

May - Oct 2015

School of Geography FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT

Philip Rees1, Pia Wohland2, Stephen Clark1, Nik Lomax1, Paul Norman1

1University of Leeds, 2Hull-York Medical School

Presentation at the British Society for Population Studies, Annual Conference, Leeds, 7-9 September 2015, Session, Demographic projections: ethnicity & projections

Web: http://www.ethpop.org

What is the fourth demographic transition?

First demographic transition (Notestein 1945): mortality falls

followed by fertility decline, resulting in rapid population growth (World)

Second demographic transition (van der Kaa 1987): fertility falls

(permanently?) below replacement (Europe, some Asia, America,

Australasia)

Third demographic transition (Coleman 2006): when smaller birth

cohorts reach the labour market, the demand for labour rises, and is

filled by international migration. New ethnic communities are created

with large demographic potentials because young age structures

favour for family formation (North, West Europe, North America,

Australasia)

Fourth demographic transition (Frey 2014): the spatial distribution of

ethnic minorities (of immigrant origin) shifts from their initial places of

settlement (mainly large cities) to other parts of the country. Frey has

described the diffusion of racial groups in the United States as a

Diversity Explosion

The Third and Fourth demographic transitions can be termed

collectively the Ethnic transition.

Why is it important to project the UK’s

ethnic transition?

• To monitor ethnic disadvantage & discrimination

in the future

• To provide context for other studies and localities

• To monitor the health of ethnic group members in

the future

• To create short term projections so that ethnic

population data are current for budgets set two to

five years in advance

• To create longer term projections to assess the

education, health, care, pension and

consumption needs of ethnic groups

Projection Ethnic Groups

Spatial Zones Model Reports

TRENDEF 2001-2051

16

352 LADs (England),

Wales, Scotland and N Ireland

Bi-regional Cohort

Component

Rees et al. (2011, 2012)

UPTAPER 2001-2051

16

352 LADs (England),

Wales, Scotland and N Ireland

Bi-regional Cohort

Component (Migration

Model Variant)

Rees et al. (2011, 2012)

Ethnic population projections for local areas in the UK: ETHPOP set

Ethnic group

Census CD2011

ETHPOP MY2011

Diff %Diff

Pop (k) Pop (k) Pop (k) Percent

ALL 56,076 56,057 -19 -0.03

White 48,209 49,609 1,400 2.90

Black 1,865 1,521 -344 -18.44

Asian 4,214 3,469 -745 -17.66

Mixed 1,224 1,017 -207 -16.90

Other 564 440 -124 -21.92

Positive differences represent over-projection

Negative differences represent under-projection

Evaluation of ETHPOP end of decade ethnic group projections:

England & Wales over- & under-projection

Projection Ethnic Groups

Spatial Zones Model Reports

Policy Exchange 2011-2035

7

632 Westminster Parliamentary

Constituencies in GB

Extrapolation for population aged

18+

Rees and Clark (2014)

Clark Thesis 2011-2031

5 324 LADs (England)

Extrapolation for population aged

50+

Clark (2015)

GOfS 2001-2051

8

65 Primary Urban Areas + 4 Rest of Home Country

zones

Extrapolation for all age groups,

with attention to population ageing

Rees, Norman and Durham

(2015)

JRF Poverty and Ethnicity 2011-2022

9/12

9 Regions (England), Wales,

Scotland and N Ireland

Extrapolation and Linkage to Labour Force Projections,

ages 16-64

Owen et al. (2015)

Ethnic population projections for local areas in the UK: UPDATES

Projection Ethnic Groups

Spatial Zones Model Reports

BSPS 2011-2061

12

324 LADs (England),

Wales, Scotland and N

Ireland

Bi-regional Cohort

Component

This presentation

PRINCIPAL 2001-2011-

2061 12 389 LADs in UK

Multi-regional

Cohort Component

Forthcoming 2016

NEWETHPOP 2001-2011-

2061 12

389 LADs in UK

Multi-regional

Cohort Component

Forthcoming 2016

Ethnic population projections for local areas in the UK: NEWETHPOP

Results: BSPS Projection (Population in 1000s, %)

Group MY2001 MY2011 MY2031 MY2051 MY2061

WHITE 54,384 55,211 58,467 57,851 56,778

Per cent 92.0% 87.3% 79.9% 72.9% 69.7%

MIXED 687 1,260 2,258 3,405 3,978

ASIAN 2,627 4,333 8,626 13,159 15,373

BLACK 1,174 1,881 2,711 3,432 3,652

OTHER 238 592 1,075 1,529 1,718

ALL 59,111 63,278 73,137 79,375 81,500

BAME 4,726 8,066 14,670 21,525 24,721

Per cent 8.0% 12.7% 20.1% 27.1% 30.3%

Diff (vs TRENDEF)

WHITE -1,345 -1,325 -2,232

BAME 1,249 3,474 5,825

Diff (vs NPP2012)

ALL 1,758 2,141 1,829

Changes in the population of ethnic groups TRENDEF Projections (2001-Based)

BSPS Projections (2011-Based)

WBI = White: British, Irish, Gypsy, Irish Traveller WHO = White: Other White MIX = Mixed: Mixed/Multiple Ethnic Groups IND = Asian/Asian British: Indian PAK = Asian/Asian British: Pakistani BAN = Asian/Asian British: Bangladeshi CHI = Asian/Asian British: Chinese OAS = Asian/Asian British: Other Asian BLA = Black/Black British: African BLC = Black/Black British: Caribbean OBL = Black/Black British: Other Black OTH = Other Ethnic Group

The Chinese group are not plotted because the estimates and assumptions for Chinese emigration need revision

Changing Ethnic Composition of the UK Population

BSPS (2011-based)

TRENDEF (2001-based)

Changing Ethnic Diversity

of England’s Local

Populations

TRENDEF (2001-Based): MY 2011 Projection

TRENDEF (2001-Based): MY2051 Projection

BSPS (2011-Based: MY2011 Estimate (census based)

BSPS (2011-Based: MY2051 Projection

Changing White/BAME Composition of UK Local Populations

TRENDEF (2001-Based): MY 2011 Projection

BSPS (2011-Based: MY2011 Estimate (census based

TRENDEF (2001-Based): MY2051 Projection

BSPS (2011-Based: MY2051 Projection

International Migration Assumptions

The Independent, Sat 5 sept 2015, front page, Refugees marching from Budapest to the Austrian Border

Long Term Assumption, 590k

Long Term Assumption, 339k

NewETHPOP specification

Features (Old) ETHPOP NewETHPOP

Zones LADs in England + WA, SC, NI (355 zones)

LADs in UK (324 England, 22 Wales, 32 Scotland, 11 Northern Ireland = 389 zones) Now confident in handling LAD

scales throughout UK

Ethnic groups 16 (2001 Census) England 12 (2001-2011 Censuses) UK Reduction in groups necessary

for UK harmonization

Country of Birth Not used Born in UK, Born Outside UK Added to track the immigrant

effects in mortality and fertility

Time series of estimates 2001-2006 2001-2011-2014 Between 2 censuses and after

Special populations Not used Armed Forces, Prisoners and HE

Students

Ethnicity switching

Not used Matrix of switching probabilities

Model Bi-regional cohort-

component

Multi-regional cohort-component

Projections Assumptions

Principal Align assumptions to NPP2012 for each UK home country or Constrain outputs to a combination of NPP2012 and SNPP 2012

NewETHPOP Design our own assumption models for each component

Variants Model-based variants for international migration

Impact Scenarios Series of projections designed to measure the impact of component assumptions

Probabilistic

Using component uncertainties from time series and national panel of experts, develop probability distributions of outcomes (12 group UK model)

NEWETHPOP Projections strategy

Summary

We have updated our previous projection to a 2011 Census

base

Using new estimates and assumptions correct the over-

projection of the White population and under-projection of the

BAME population

The national ethnic transition (Third Demographic Transition)

happens faster than in our previous projection

Diversity spreads outwards (The Fourth Demographic

Transition) from core areas in 2011 but this diffusion is less

pronounced than in our 2001-based projections

Lots of further analysis to be done (e.g. of ageing), including

sensitivity testing to understand which changes in

assumptions led to which effects

References

Clark, Stephen (2015) Modelling the Impacts of Demographic Ageing on the Demand for Health Care Services. PhD submitted, University of Leeds. Frey, William (2014) Diversity Explosion: How New Racial Demographics are Remaking America. Brookings Institution Press, Washington DC. Rees P., Wohland P., Norman P. and Boden P. (2011) A local analysis of ethnic group population trends and projections for the UK. Journal of Population Research, 28(2-3): 149-184. Rees, P., Wohland, P., Norman, P. and Boden, P. (2012) Ethnic population projections for the UK, 2001-2051. Journal of Population Research, 29(1): 45-89. Rees, Philip and Stephen Clark (2014) The projection of ethnic group populations aged 18 and over for Westminster parliamentary constituencies in Great Britain for election years 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030 and 2035. A Report to the Policy Exchange, 10 Storey’s Gate, London SW1P 3AY Rees, Philip, Paul Norman and Helen Durham (2015) Working Paper 15: Urban Ethnic Disparities. Foresight Future of Cities Project, Government Office for Science.