Working Papers Malcolm Hamilton Editor

The following papers from schools, institutes, and research centers may be of interest to readers. To obtain copies write directly to the issuing bodies, not to the publisher or the editors. If you would like your papers listed in future issues, send copies to the Librarian, JFK School of Government, 79 John F. Kennedy St., Cambridge, MA 02138.

BOARD OF Working Papers GOVERNORS OF THE Stockton, David J., and Glassman, James E.

FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

An evaluation of the forecast performance of alternative models of inflation. July 1985, 30 pp.

BROOKINGS Brookings dialogues on Public Policy INSTITUTION Peters, B. Guy et al.

The unfinished agenda for civil service reform. Implications of the Grace Commission Report. 1985, 142 pp.

CAT0 INSTITUTE Policy Analyses Lee, William E.

The First Amendment versus municipal regulation of cable tele- vision. August 1984, 22 pp.

Meehan, Mary The Federal Election Commission. A case for abolition. October 1984, 19 pp.

The United States and the Persian Gulf. January 1985, 25 pp.

The last dinosaur. The U.S. Postal Service. February 1985,21 pp.

Richman, Sheldon L.

Bovard, James

DiLorenzo, Thomas J.

Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, Vol. 5 , No. 3, 657-664 (1986) 8 1986 b the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management PublisheBby John Wiley & Sons, Inc. CCC 0276-8739/86/020657-08$04.00

658 Working Papers

The myth of government job creation. February 1985, 25 pp.

An agenda for the economic summit. April 1985, 34 pp.

What is the 1985 farm problem? July 1985, 17 pp.

Bartlett, Bruce

Bullock, Bruce

EAST-WEST CENTER Resource Systems Institute. Working Papers (HONOLULU) Smith, Kirk R.

Biomass combustion and indoor air pollution. The bright and dark sides of small is beautiful. December 1984, 35 pp.

FEDERAL RESERVE Working Papers BANK OF Inman, Robert P.

PHILADELPHIA Does deductability influence local taxation? May 1985,44 pp.

HARVARD UNIVERSIN Center for Information Policy Research. Incidental Papers Spero, Jean Edelman

International trade and the information revolution. April 1985, 17 PP-

Center for Information Policy Research. Publications Rowell, William F.

Arms control verification. A guide to policy issues for the 1980s. April 1985, one volume.

Center for Population Studies. Migration and Development Program. Discussion Papers Katz, Eliakim, and Stark, Oded

The proposed immigration reform in the United States. Its im- pact on the employment of illegal aliens by the firm. June 1985, 21 PP.

Harvard University Institute for International Development. Develop- ment Discussion Papers McGinn, Noel; Barra, Nancy; and Harris, Christopher

Recent experiences in the coordination of education, employ- ment and technology in Latin American and the Caribbean. May 1985,42 pp.

A multisectoral growth model for Argentina. June 1985, 88 pp. Visintini, Alfred0 Aldo

Harvard Institute of Economic Research. Discussion Papers Bulow, Jeremy I., and Summers, Lawrence

A theory of dual labor markets with application to industrial

Working Papers 659

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policy, discrimination and Keynesian unemployment. July 1985, 49 PP.

Public policy implications of declining old age mortality. June 1985, 53 pp.

Crowding out or crowding in? Evidence on debt-equity substi- tutability. April 1985, 29 pp.

Poterba, James M. and Summers, Lawrence H.

Friedman, Benjamin M.

John F . Kennedy School of Government. Discussion Papers Rodrik, Dani

Disequilibrium exchange rates as industrial policy. September 1985, 50 pp.

Stock, James H. Nonparametric policy analysis. July 1985, 47 pp.

Omen, Gary R. What's new about the new media? May 1985, 61 pp.

Neipp, Joachim, and Zeckhauser, Richard Persistence in the choice of health plans. May 1985, 46 pp.

John F . Kennedy School of Government. Energy and Environmental Policy Center. Discussion Papers Hogan, William W.

Energy demand and the outlook for electricity. August 1985, 21 PP.

Recent assessments on the health effects of airborne particles and their consideration in standard setting. June 1985, 42 pp.

Ozkaynak, Haluk and Spengler, John D.

INTERNATIONAL Research Reports INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED Stoto, Michael A.

SYSTEMS ANALYSIS (LAXENBURG)

The accuracy of population projections. July 1984, 8 pp. (Re- printed from the Journal of the American Statistical Association, Volume 78, 1983.)

INTERNATIONAL Adelphi Papers

STRATEGIC STUDIES 1985, 56 pp. INSTITUTE FOR New technology and Western security policy, Part 11. Summer

(LONDON) Builder, Carl H. The prospects and implications of non-nuclear means for strate- gic conflict. Summer 1985, 35 pp.

NATIONAL BUREAU OF Working Papers ECONOMIC RESEARCH Gertler, Paul J.

Subsidies, quality, and regulation in the nursing home industry. August 1985,29 pp.

660 Working Papers

Edwards, Sebastian The pricing of bonds and bank loans in international markets: An empirical analysis of developing countries’ foreign borrow- ing. August 1985,40 pp.

The economics of reproduction-related health care. August 1985, 47 PP.

Huizinga, John and Mishkin, Frederic S . Monetary policy regime shifts and the unusual behavior of real interest rates. August 1985, 38 pp.

Allen, Steven G. and Clark, Robert L. Unions, pension wealth, and age-compensation profiles. August 1985,40 pp.

Dickens, William T.; Wholey, Douglas R.; and Robinson, James C. Bargaining unit, union, industry, and locational correlates of union support in certification and decertification elections. July 1985,34 pp.

Are imports to blame?: Attribution of injury under the 1974 Trade Act. June 1985,27 pp.

Wages in the federal and private sectors. June 1985, 47 pp.

Is the strong dollar sustainable? June 1985, 48 pp.

The efficiency gains from social security benefit-tax linkage. June 1985,41 pp.

Public debt and U.S. saving; A new test of the neutrality hypoth- esis. June 1985, 39 pp.

Country risk, foreign borrowing and the social discount rate in an open developing economy. June 1985,37 pp.

Union maids: Unions and the female workforce. June 1985, 46 PP.

How do public sector wages and unemployment respond to eco- nomic conditions? June 1985,41 pp.

Who escapes? The relation of church-going and other back- ground factors in the socio-economic performance of black male youths from inner-city poverty tracts. June 1985, 36 pp.

Predation through regulation: The wage and profit impacts of OSHA and EPA. July 1985,27 pp.

Prizes and incentives in elimination tournaments. June 1985, 46 PP.

Fuchs, Victor R. and Perreault, Leslie

Pindyck, Robert S . , and Rotemberg, Julio J.

Venti, Steven F.

Krugman, Paul R.

Auerbach, Alan J., and Kotlikoff, Laurence J.

Boskin, Michael J., and Kotlikoff, Laurence J.

Edwards, Sebastian

Freeman, Richard B., and Leonard, Jonathan S.

Freeman, Richard B.

Freeman, Richard B.

Bartel, Ann P. and Thomas, Lacy Glenn

Rosen, Sherwin

Tauchen, Helen V.; Witte, Ann D.; and Long, Sharon K. Domestic violence: A non-random affair. July 1985, 37 pp.

Working Papers 66 1

NEW YORK C.V. S tan Center for Applied Economics. Economic Research Reports UNIVERSITY

Dagsvik, John; Jovanovic, Boyan; and Shephard, Andrea A foundation for three popular assumptions in job-matching models. April 1985, 31 pp.

RAND CORPORATION Note Series McArthur, David; Klahr, Philip; and Narain, Sanjai

Kane, Robert L., and Kane, Rosalie The ROSS language manual. September 1985,49 pp.

A will and a way: What Americans can learn about long-term care from Canada. August 1985,295 pp.

The Chinese electronics industry in transition. May 1985, 86 pp.

Possible health effects of increased exposure to ultraviolet radia- tion. July 1985, 70 pp.

Using computer-based technologies in organizations: A research prospectus. Institute for Interactive Information Environments. July 1985, 30 pp.

Pollack, Jonathan D.

Sloss, Elizabeth M., and Rose, Thanne P.

Bikson, T. K. et al.

Paper Series Fernandez, Judith C.

Direct investment in petroleum ventures in developing coun- tries: A review of risks and strategies. July 1985, 61 pp.

Walker, Warren E. The use of screening in policy analysis. June 1985, 28 pp.

Buchan, Glenn C. How relevant is nuclear strategy? A primer for heretics. Febru- ary 1985,44 pp.

Essays on economic policy and foreign policy. March 1985, 69 Wolf, Charles, Jr.

PP. Weiner. Milton G.

Analyzing alternative concepts for the defense of NATO. October 1984, 23 pp.

Report Series Rubenstein, Randi S . et al.

Measurement of physiologic health for children: Vision impair- ments. April 1985, 106 pp.

Production of neutral beams from negative ion beam systems in the USSR. December 1982, 107 pp.

Time-of-day electricity rates for the United States. Nov. 1983,

Wells, Nikita

Acton, Jan Paul et al.

38 PP.

662 Working Papers

Waite, Linda J., and Berryman, Sue E. Women in nontraditional occupations; Choice and turnover. March 1985, 85 pp.

A conceptual framework for analyzing terrorist groups. June 1985, 114 pp.

Gustafson, Thane Soviet negotiating strategy; The East-West gas pipeline deal, 1980-1984. Feb. 1985,45 pp.

The political and social capabilities of North and South Korea for the long-term military competition. January 1985, 47 pp.

The R&D process and technological innovation in the Chinese industrial system. May 1985, 12 pp.

Cordes, Bonnie; Jenkins, Brian M.; Kellen, Konrad; et al.

Sneider, Richard L.

Pollack, Jonathan D.

ROYAL INSTITUTE OF Chatham House Papers INTERNATIONAL Austin, Dennis

AFFAIRS (LONDON) South Africa, 1984. 1985,72 pp.

U.S. CONGRESS Congressional Budget Office. Special Studies Vertrees, James G. et al.

Diversity in crop farming: Its meaning for income-support pol- icy. May 1985, 52 pp.

Congressional Budget Office. Studies Pierrot, Lane and Kornfeld, Bob

Tactical combat forces of the United States Air Force: Issues and alternatives. April 1985, 79 pp.

Carol, Daniel, and Rubin, Kenneth Hazardous waste management: Recent changes and policy alter- natives. May 1985, 96 pp.

Williams, Roberton C., and Adams, Gina C. Reducing poverty among children. May 1985, 173 pp.

Webre, Philip Federal financial support for high-technology industries. June 1985,92 pp.

UNIVERSITY OF Department of Economics. Working Papers in Economics CALIFORNIA, SANTA Frech, H. E., I11

BARDARA Monopoly in health insurance: The economics of Kartell v. Blue Shield of Massachusetts. August 1985, 53 pp.

Tiebout bias and the demand for local public schooling. April 1985,33 pp.

Optimum insurance of natural hazards for people who don't want any. February 1985,41 pp.

Rubinfeld, D.; Shapiro, P.; and Roberts, J.

Marshall, John M.

UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN

UNIVERSITY OF STRATHCLYDE (SCOTLAND)

UNIVERSITY OF WESTERN ONTARIO

Working Papers 663

Institute of Public Policy Studies. Discussion Papers Deardorff, Alan V . , and Stern, Robert M.

Current issues in the U.S. trade policies. An overview. March 1985, 80 pp.

Jackson, John H. Multilateral and bilateral negotiating approaches for the con- duct of United States trade policies. February 1985, 47 pp.

Centre for the Study of Public Policy. Studies in Public Policy Rose, Richard

National pride: Cross-national surveys. 1985, 25 pp.

Department of Economics. Research Reports Greenwood, Jeremy and Kimbrough, Kent P.

Capital controls and fiscal policy in the world economy. July 1985, 35 pp.

UNIVERSITY OF Institute for Research on Poverty. Discussion Papers WISCONSIN-MADISON Danziger, Sheldon et al.

The effects of unemployment and policy changes on America’s poor. 1984,46 pp.

Comparative policy analysis; The programme approach. 1985, 24 PP.

The dynamics of poverty among the elderly; Income transitions at older stages of life. April 1985, 20 pp.

Rose, Richard

Holden, Karen; Burkhauser, Richard; and Myers, Daneil

URBAN INSTITUTE Changing Domestic Priorities. Discussion Papers Moon, Marilyn

Measuring changes in economic well-being, 1980-1984. July 1985, 45 pp.

Stone, Charles F. Tax cuts, deficits, and long term growth. August 1985, 32 pp.

Non Profit Sector Project. Papers Salamon, Lester M.

The nonprofit sector and the rise of third-party government: The scope, character, and consequences of government support of nonprofit organizations. May 1983,44 pp.

Kimmich, Madeleine H.; Gutowski, Michael; and Salamon, Lester M.

Child-serving nonprofit organizations in an era of government retrenchment. 1985, 118 pp.

WORLD BANK Staff Working Papers DaVanzo, Julie et al.

Quantitative studies of mortality decline in the developing world. May 1985, 122 pp.

Tax and contractual arrangements €or the exploitation of natu- Virmani, Arvind

664 Working Papers

ral resources. September 1985, 139 pp. Meyers, Kenneth

Brazil. Medium term policy analysis. September 1985, 102 pp. Anand, Sudhir, and Nalebuff, Barry

Issues in the appraisal of energy projects for oil-importing devel- oping countries. July 1985, 69 pp.

Serageldin, Ismail et al. Simulating flows of labor in the Middle East and North Africa. August 1985,43 pp.

WORLDWATCH Worldwatch Papers INSTITUTE Flavin, Christopher

World Oil: Coping with the dangers of success. July 1985,66 pp.

Energy productivity: Key to environmental protection and eco- nomic progress. January 1985, 62 pp.

Chandler, William U.

YALE UNIVERSITY Economic Growth Center. Discussion Papers Sah, Raaj Kumar.

Sah, Raaj Kumar, and Stiglitz, Joseph E.

What affects the level of honesty in an economy? June 1985, 24 PP.

Economics of committees. June 1985, 33 pp.

Yale School of Organization and Management. Series D: Economics of Organization Sah, Raaj Kumar, and Stiglitz, Joseph E.

The architecture of economic systems; hierarchies and polyar- chies. Rev., April 1985, 46 pp.