Working Papers Malcolm Hamilton Editor

The following papers from schools, institutes, and research centers may be of interest to readers. To obtain copies write directly to the issuing bodies, not to the publisher or the editors. If you would like your papers listed in future issues, send copies to the Librarian. JFK School of Government, 79 John F. Kenncdy St., Cambridge, M A 02 138.

American Enterprise AEI Studies Institute Labrie. Roger P.; Hutchins, John G.; and Peura. Edwin W.

1J.S. arms sales policy; Background and issues, 1982, 87 pp.

Atlantic Council of the Policy Papers United States Goodpaster, Andrew J.; Eilliott, Lloyd H.; Hovey, J . Allan, Jr.: and

Harned, Joseph W. Toward a consensus on military service. June 1982, 70 pp.

Australian National Centre for Economic Policy Research, Discussion Paperr University Gruen, F.H.

The tertiary education assistance scheme: A case study in the operation of the Australian welfare state, March 1982, 32 pp. The Giblin Memorial Lecture 1982, the welfare state debate: ccoriomic myths of the left and the right, May 1982, 38 pp.

Wart-, P.G., and Lloyd, P. J . Do Australian trade policies discriminate against less developed coun- tries? July 1982, 44 pp.

b a r d of Governors of the Division of Research and Sraristics. Financial Studies Secrion, Research Federal Reme System Papers in Banking and Financial Economics

Avcry, Robert B. Indirect screening and the equal credit opportunity act. revised October 1981, 25 pp. Credit scoring models with discriminant analysis and truncated sarn- ples, revised November 1981. 24 pp.

Journal of Policy Analysis and Management. Vol. 2 , KO. 3. 489-497 (1983) @ 1983 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Managcnient Published by John Wiley Q Sons, Inc. CCC 0276-8739l83/020489-09$01.90

490 Working Paptrs

I-- - Goldberg. Michael A.

The relevance of margin regulations, July 1982, 39 pp. Special Studies Papers Z.11

Resler, D. H.; Barth. J.R.; Swamy, P.A.; and Davis, W.D. Detecting and estimating changing economic relationships: The case of discount window borrowings, August 1982, 32 pp.

Reserve accounting regimes, bank behavior and monetary control: an empirical analysis, September 1982, 16 pp. Staff Studies

Canner, Glenn B. Redlining: Research and fcderal legislative response, October 1982,

Spindt. P.A., and Tarhan, V.

20 PP.

California Institute of Division of the Humaniries and Social Sciences, Social Sciences Working Technology Papers

Kiewiet, D.R. The rationality of candidates who challenge incumbents in congres- sional elections, July 1982. 22 pp.

Fiorina, Morris P. Group concentration and the delegation of legislative authority, August 1982,45 pp.

The constituency service basis of the personal vote for US. Representa- tives and British MPs. August 1982. 38 pp.

Tradable a i r pollution permits in the overall regulatory system: prob- lems of regulatory interactions, September 1982, 39 pp.

Cain, Bruce, E.: Ferejohn. John A.: and Fiorina, Morr is P.

Hahn. Robert W.. and Nol l , Roger G .

Federal Relem Bank of Department of Research, Working Papers Philodelphio Flannery, Mark J .

The social costs of unit banking restrictions, May 1982. 31 pp.

H m r d University Harvard lnsriture of Economic Research, Discussion Puper Series Aucrbach, Alan J .

Taxes, firm financial policy. and the cost of capital: an empirical analysis. August 1982. 53 pp.

A dynamic model of housing price determination, October 1982.29 pp.

Rural to urban migration in LCDs: A refativc deprivation approach, October 1982. 21 pp.

Migration, growth, distribution and welfare, October 1982, 1 I pp.

Engle, Robert F.; Lilien, David M.; and Watson, Mark W.

Stark, Oded

Stark, Oded, and Yitzhaki. Shlomo

John F. Kennedy School of Government, Di.~cussion Papers Klitgaard, Robert E.

On the emergence of public policy studies and prospects for compara- t ive work, May 1982. 19 pp.

The incoherence of ' I Limited Government." August 1982. 45 pp. Kelman. Steven

Working Papers 49 1

I

John F . Kennedy School of Government, Energy and Environmental Policy Center, Discussion Paper Series Lee, Henry

51 PP.

The costs and benefits of federal regulation of coal strip mining, August 1982.40 pp.

Natural gas decontrol: A northeast industrial perspective. October 1982, 150 pp.

Energy a t the state and local level: An evolving perspective, June 1982,

Kalt, Joseph P.

Kalt, Joseph P.; Lee, Henry; and I.eone, Robert

John F . Kennedy School of Government. Harvard Energy Security Program. Discussion Papers Devarajan, Shantayanan. and Hubbard, R.G.

Drawing down the strategic petroleum reserve: The case for selling futures contracts, June 1982, 31 pp.

Policy analysis with your hands tied: The disruption tariff under oil price controls. June 1982, 20 pp.

Hubbard, R.G.

Industrial Institute for Working Papers Economic and Social Carlsson, Bo

Research Industrial subsidies in Sweden: Macroeconomic effects and an interna- tional comparison, April 1982, 36 pp.

Electronics, economic growth, and employment revolution or evolution, June 1982,29 pp.

Payroll taxes and wage inflation: The Swedish experiences, June 1982, 29 PP.

Eliasson, Gunnar

Holmlund. Bertil

lnternotionul Institute for Collaborative Papers Applied Systems Analysis Ciaschini, Maurizio

Modem input-output models as simulation tools for policy making. September 1982, 39 pp.

Two global scenarios: The evolution of energy use and the economy to 2030. November 198 1, 75 pp.

Urbanization and development in the Third World, reprint June 1982,s articles

Chant, Verne C.

Rogers, Andrei, and Williamson, Jeffrey G.

Working Papers Rogers, Andrei. and Williams, Pamela

A framework for multistage demoeconomic modeling and projection, with a n illustrative application, July 1982, 61 pp.

An introduction to the ISP system for land use planning, August 1982, Roy, Geoffrey G., and Snickars, Folke

60 PP.

492 1 Working Papers

Intenrational institute for Strategic Studies (London)

Johns Hopkins University

London School of Economia and Political

Science

Adelphi Papers Winkler. Theodor H.

Arms control and the politics of European security, Autumn 1982,43 pp.

Department of Political Economy, Working Papers in Economics Goodman, Allen C., and Kawai. Masahiro

Rental housing demand: Evidence from I9 metropolitan areas, August 1982. 55 pp. Functional form and rental market analysis, October 1982, 29 pp.

Towards a n analytic population policy: On the rolc of international migration, October 1982, 36 pp.

Sirageldin, Ismail, and Kraly. Ellen P.

Centre for Labor Economics, Discitssion Papers Nissim. Joseph

An examination of the differential patterns in the cyclical behaviour of the employment. hours and wages of labour of different skill: British mechanical engineering, 1963- 1978, October 1982. 50 pp.

The proper measurement of government budget deficits: Comprehen- sive wealth accounting o r permanent income accounting for the public sector: Its implications for policy evaluation and design, October 1982, 62 PP.

Buiter. Willem H.

International Centre for Economics and Related Disciplines, Discussion Paper.s Horsley, Anthony

Mookherjee. Dilip Electricity pricing for large supply systems. 1982, 34 pp.

Optimal incentive schemes in multiagent situations, March 1982,58 pp.

Internutional Centre for Economics and Related Disciplines, International Studies Sugiyama. Shinya; Hunter, Janet: Lehmann, Jean Pierrc; Checkland, Olive; and Daniels, Gordon

Bakumatsu and Meiji: Studies in Japan’s economic and social history, February 1982, 89 pp.

The East Asian crisis, 1945-1951: the problem of China, Korea and Japan, June 1982, 73 pp.

Dingman. Roger: Hosoya, Chihiro; and Nish, Ian

Northwestern University Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics und Management Science, Discussion Papers Reichelstein, Stefan

McDonald, Robert L.. and Sicgel. Daniel R. Incentives in government contracts, March 1982. 17 pp.

Investment and the valuation of firms when there is an option to shut down, June 1982, 39 pp.

- Center for Urban Affairs and Policy Research, Working Papers Cook, Fay L.

A decision model to assess the utility of age as an eligibility category for policies and programs, 1982, 42 pp.

Cook, Fay I..; Tyler, Tom; Goetz, Edward G.; Gordon, Margaret T.: and Protess, David

Media and agenda setting: Effects on the public, interest group leaders, policy makers, and policy, October 1982, 31 pp.

The impact of hospital unionism, July 1981, 38 pp.

School enrollment, military enlistment. and the transition to work: Implications for the age pattern of employment, March 1982, 58 pp.

State of the art science and environmental decision making about acid rain, August 1982, 21 pp.

A critical appraisal of research 011 unions and collective bargaining, April 1982, 59 pp.

Heinz. Anne M. Risk and perceptions of justice. 1982, 32 pp.

Clarke, Susan E.; and Rich, Michael J . Urban public private partnership tor economic development: Assessing the UDA(; experience, 1982. 38 pp.

Juris, Hervcy A., and Maxey, Charles

Mare, Rober D.. and Winship, Christopher

Culhane, Paul J.: Armentano, Thomas V.; and Friesema. H.P.

Roomkin, Myron J., and Juris, Hervcy A.

Popdotion Council Center for Policy Studies, Working Papers Hollerbach, Paula E.

Fertility decision making processes: A critical essay, October 1982, 55 PP.

Rand Corporation Notes Bigelow, J .I 1.

Policy analysis of water management for the Netherlands; Vol . V, design of managerial strategies, May 1982, 351 pp.

Does migration increase wage rates? An analysis of alternative tech- niques for measuring wage gains t o migration. July 1982, 66 pp.

Housing allowances and administration efficiency, May 1982. 21 I pp.

An evaluation of alternative safety criteria for nuclear power plants, June 1982. 63 pp.

Housing allowance program administration: Findings from the supply experiment, May 1982, 103 pp.

Models for human exposure to air pollution. July 1982, 15 pp.

The evolution of armed forces enlisted personnel management policies: Executive summary, July 1982, 114 pp.

DaVanzo, Julie. and Hosek, James R.

Kingsley, G.T.. and Schlegel, Priscilla M.

Solomon, Kenneth A., and Nelson, Pamela F.

Kingsley. G.T.; Kirby, Sheila N.; and Rizor. W.E.

Duan. Naihua

Hayes, James H.

494

Quinlan. J.R. Inlerno: A cautious approach to uncertain inference, September 1982. 60 PP.

Rand Paper Series Lewis, Kevin N.

Nuclear weapons policy, planning and war objectives: toward a theater oriented deterrent strategy, March 1982, 28 pp.

The vulnerability of price stabilization schcmcs to speculative attack, revised May 1982, 68 pp.

Rvdcll. C.P.. and Neels. Kevin Rcwt control. undermaintenance. and housing deterioration, June 1982.

Salant, Stephen W.

1 0 pp.

Can implementation of computers be justified on cost effectiveness grounds?, June 1982, 10 pp.

Newhouse, Joseph P. Should medical care be free? cost sharing and health financing policy, June 1982, 15 pp.

1.ooking back on the housing assistance supply experiment. June 1982,

Shavelson. Richard J. , and Winklcr. John D.

Lowly, Ira S.

27 PP. Warc, Willis H.

Avionics software: Where are we?, September 1982. 16 pp. delcwn. Peter

Things fall apart; the center cannot hold: The crisis in govcrning, June 1982, 27 pp.

Woli . Charles. Jr . Management without a bottom line, January 1982, 16 pp.

Pascal. Anthony H. The post-municipal city, July 1982, 22 pp.

Rydrll. C.P., and Barnett, C.L. Price effects of housing allowances, July 1982. 26 pp.

Mitchell, Bridger M. Fourth International Conference: Future analysis. forecasting and plan- ning for telecommunications. energy and public utilities, August 1982. 6 PP.

liiformation policy; thoughts for the '80s. August 1982. 8 pp. Ware. Willis H .

Reports McDonnell, Lorraine M.. and McLaughlin. Milbrcy W.

Hillestad, Carol E.. and McDowelI. James L. F.Jucation policy and the role of the states. May 1982. 161 pp.

Mcasuring neighborhood change due to housing allowances, May 1982, 58 pp.

Mulford, John E.; McDowcll. James L.; Helbers. Lawrence: Murray, Michael P., and Yildiz, Ohran M.

llousing consumption in a housing allowance program. July 1982, 102 pp.

Working Papers 49 5

Coleman, Sinclair B. How housing evaluations affect participation in a housing allowance program, April 1982, 51 pp.

McCarthy, Kevin F., and Ronfeldt, David F. U.S. immigration policy and global interdependence, June 1982, 17 pp.

Butz, William P.; McCarthy, Kevin F.: Morrison, Peter A.; and Vaiana, Mary E.

Butz, William P.; Habicht, Jean Pierre; and DaVanzo, Julie Demographic challenges in America’s future, May 1982, 40 pp.

Policy and program implications from the Malaysian family life survey, June 1981, 15 pp.

Policy and program implications from the Malaysian family life survey, November 1981, 19 pp.

World natural gas supply projections for 1990, November 1981, 25 pp.

DaVanzo, Julie, and Butz, William P.

Yao, Dennis A.

Stanford University International Energy Program, Reports Manne, Alan S.; Nelson, Constance R.; So, Kut C.; and Weyant, John P.

CPM: A contingency planning model of the international oil market, July 1982, 164 pp.

A comparison of international energy projections, May 1982, 18 pp.

Oil stockpiles and import reductions: A dynamic programming ap- proach, August 1982, 32 pp.

Local public finance in developing countries: A directory of experts, July 1982, 57 pp.

Manne, Alan S.

Chao, Hung-po, and Manne, Alan S .

Miller, Barbara D., and Joseph, Richard M., Jr.

Syracuse University Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, Metropolitan Stydies Program, Occasional Papers Bahl, Roy; Schroeder, Larry; and Zorn, C.K.

Local government revenue and expenditure forecasting: New York City, August 1982, 62 pp.

Local government revenue and expenditure forecasting: Washington, DC, September 1981, 86 pp.

Local government revenue and expenditure forecasting: New Orleans, October 1981, 36 pp.

The optimal structurc of intergovernmental grants, February 1982, 33 PP.

45 PP.

Local government revenue forecasting: A guide with a n application to Memphis, Tennessee, May 1982, 73 pp.

Bahl, Roy; Schroeder, Larry; Share, Marla; and Hoffman, Anne

Schroeder. Larry; Madere, Lee; and Lomba, Jerome

A h , James

Bahl, Roy: Holland, Daniel; and Linn, Johannes Urban growth and local taxes in less developed countries, April 1982,

Zorn, C.K.

496

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Mercer. John Comparing the reform of metropolitan fragmentation, fiscal depend- ency, and political culture in Canada and the United States, September 1982, 28 pp.

U.S. Congressional C.B.O. Studies Budget Office Sheingold, Steven

Dislocated workers: Issues and federal options, July 1982, 56 pp.

Managing oil disruptions: Issues and policy options, September 1981, 64 PP.

Webre, Philip

Unimsite Catholique de Center for Opcration Research and Econometrics, Discussion Papers L w a i n Champsaur, Paul, and Melitz. Jacques

On the optimal choice of monetary policy instruments: A generalization, January 1982. 16 pp.

A politico-economic model of public utility pricing. March 1982. 15 pp.

Discount rates and shadow prices for public investment, June 1982, 18 PP.

Munk, Knud J .

Marchand, Maurice. and Pestieau, Pierre

University of British Department of’ Economics, Discussion Papers Columbia Blackorby. Charles, and Donaldson. David

Social criteria for evaluating population change, February 1982.70 pp.

Decentraliacd control of a socialist industry, February 1982. 23 pp.

Deferral, indexation. and averaging of taxes: Thoughts on the 1981 federal budget and future policy options. April 1982. 57 pp.

Donaldson. David. and Neary. Hugh

Kesselman, Jonathan R .

University of London Birkbeck ColleKe. Department of Economics, SSRC Programme in Quantita- rive and Comparative Macroeconomics. Discicssion Papers in Economics Fine, Ben

Multinational corporations, the British economy and the alternative economic strategy, January 1982, 40 pp.

Stabilization policy and the risk of illiquidity, March 1982, 34 pp.

The impact of economic reform on macroeconomics policy in Yugosla- via: Some econometric evidence. June 1982. 46 pp.

Snower, Dennis J .

Burkett, John P.

University of Washington Deparrment 01 Economics, Discussion Papers Mcndclsohn. Robert

Regulation and average revenue pricing, June 1982, 17 pp.

Graduate School of Public Affairs, Institute for Public Policy and Manage- ment, DiscusAion Papers Williams. Walter

Strangers and brothers: The dilemma of organizing and staffing thc American Presidency. April 1982, 82 pp.

Workiug Papers 497 L __ - Gradzcate School of Public Aflbirs. Institute for Public Policy and Munage- ment, Public Policy Papers Weatherley, Richard: Narver, Betty J.: and Elmore, Richard F.

School closures in Seattle: The politics and management of decline. June 1981, 37 pp.

Reagan and the machinery of government issue: The first six months. August 1982, 55 pp.

Analyzing the impact of decline: School closures in Seattle, May 1982, 42 PP.

Williams, Walter

Brown, Patricia R.. and Elmore, Richard F.

Washington University Department of Economics, Working Papers Meyer, Laurence, and Webstcr, Charles, Jr .

On the rcal effectsof imprecise monetary control, revised January 1982. 26 PP.

Agenda controlling committees and policy making by default, revised January 1982, 16 pp.

Institutionalizing majority rule: A social choice theory with policy implications. February 1982. 1 I pp.

Denzau, Arthur, and Mackay, Robert

Shepsle, Kenneth A.. and Weingast. Barry R.

Institute for Urban and Regionul Studies, Working Papers Leven, Charles L.

Tobin. Gary A.. and Anderson, Barry D. Regional shifts and metropolitan reversal in the US.. June 1981.22 pp.

Will urban revitalization help the central cities schools?, November 1981, 31 pp.

Leven. Charles L. Housing the poor and conserving neighborhoods; a strategic critique of US. policy, June 1980. 17 pp.

Leven. Charles L. Reversing metropolitan concentration as an economic issue. August 1982, 27 pp.

Deudney. Daniel Space: The high frontier in perspective, August 1982. 72 pp.