Wittmer/Lichtensteiger, ETH Zurich/Eawag SwitzerlandSustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06 Development of Resource Use Intensity

Wittmer/Lichtensteiger, ETH Zurich/Eawag SwitzerlandSustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06

Development of Resource Use Intensity

A Retrospective Approach to Draft Scenarios

Dominic WittmerThomas Lichtensteiger

ETH Zurich – Swiss Federal Institute of Technologyand

Eawag – Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology


Observation:historical transfer of mineral resources

– extraction out of geosphere– accumulation in anthroposphere

Findings on “urban deposits”:• knowledge about is limited and random• lack of methods for their exploration –

especially the trace elements

Motivation

Projected consequence: today anthropogenic stocks are

the raw materials of tomorrow


COPPERCharacteristics:• plasticity• electr. conductivity• therm. conductivity• warm colour• alloyability• recyclability

MotivationObservation:historical transfer of mineral resources

– extraction out of geosphere– accumulation in anthroposphere

Projected consequence: today anthropogenic stocks are

the raw materials of tomorrow

Findings on “urban deposits”:• knowledge about is limited and random• lack of methods for their exploration –

especially the trace elements


SUBSTANCE FLOW ANALYSIS

characterising

RECORDING

growth curves

DYNAMIC MODELLING(SFA)

scenarios

SURVEY OF THE STOCKS

Methodical Procedure


demandfor products

demandfor products

Driving and driven – Perception of the Metabolism

FLOWS STOCKSNEEDS

consequence

consequence

stock-drivenapproach

flow-drivenapproach


2000Flows andS tocks

system boundary switzerland

anorg. resources(incl. deposits)

trade infrastructure

buildings

soils andaquatic systems

supply

copper

secondary copper to production and trade

secondary copper to deposit

abrasion of overhead wire

runoff ofroofs

ImportsGoodssemi-finished goodsscrap

Exportsgoodssemi-finished goodsscrap

productionwaste managementdeconstruction

mobiles

mobileProdukte

installedlines

installedproducts

uninstalledproducts

uninstalledproducts

disusedproducts

productionwaste

abrasion of vehicle brakes

System Analysis: Regional copper management


Survey of the Stocks: Buildings


AR – Application Ranges PG – Product Groups

Power systems • Power cables

Telecommunication systems • Telecommunication cables

Water systems • Water pipes• Fittings• Raw armatures

Heating systems • Heating pipes• Fittings• Raw armatures

Roofs • Roofing• Cladding of dormer windows• Gutters and down pipes• Lightning conductors

Structuring the Copper Stock in BuildingsRelevant Application Ranges and affiliated Product Groups


Definition and determination of key sizes (per product group):

• installation density

• specific mass

• copper concentration

• frequency of products

• frequency of the material (Cu)

Survey of the Stocks: Buildings


Utilisation types & age classes

main stock referencing parameter („density“)

substance massper functional unit

frequencies

Buildings ID(reference area) specific mass cCu fM fP

Infrastructure NDA or NDEW specific mass - fM -

Movables - (-) specific mass cCu - fP

partial stock withinthe building stock

• 4 utilisation types

• 4 age classes (per quarter)

• 14 product groups

yr of construction/renovation

ARK-buildingOFB

1901-1925 1926-1950 1951-1975 1976-2000

ARK-buildingMFB

ARK-buildingSB

ARK-buildingPB

Mi,EFH=

Mi,MFH=

Mi,PRG=

Mi,DLG=

NEFH ·

NMFH ·

NPRG ·

NDLG ·

mi,MFH

mi,PRG

mi,DLG

mi,EFH


SB6 MFB

12

PRB6

OFB8

roofs (32)

sanitary systems (9)

OFB2.5

PRB1

SB1.5

MFB4

heating systems (13)

OFB5

MFB6

SB2

PRB<1

power systems (24)

PRB6

OFB3

MFB6SB

9

OFB: one-family buildingsMFB: multi-family buildingsSB: service buildingsPRB: production buildings

Copper Stocks in Buildings per Application Rangegiven in [kg/capita] rounded, divided into the four utilisation types, 2000


transformers5 kg/capita

overhead power wires 9 kg/capita

cables74 kg/capita

telecommunicationnetwork

16 kg/capita

traffic 2 kg/capita

electricitynetwork

88 kg/capita

Copper Stocks in Infrastructure per Application Rangegiven in [kg/capita], 2000


Copper stock development shown by the example of one-family buildings

Elektroinsta

llatio

n

Telekommunika

tion

Heizungsin

stalla

tion

Sanitärin

stalla

tion

Bedachung/A

bdeckung

Dachentw

ässerung

Dachgaupen

Blitzableite

r III

IIIIV

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

product groups

copper stock[in 1000 t]

I

II

III

IV

Quartale25 a


steel

copper

syntheticmaterial

composed

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1962 1972 1982 1992 2002

time

inst

alla

tio

n s

har

e [%

]

Source: expert interviews (SELM 2002) and technical literature.

resultsStock Development

Temporal Variability of the Frequency of Copper (fM)Example: heating pipes in panel heating, given in [%] market share

cuprothermco

pp

er


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Foreign Trade ofCopper Goods

[1'000 t/a]

0

20'000

40'000

60'000

80'000

100'000

120'000

140'000

160'000

180'000Inhabitants

[1'000]

Population

Imports

Exports

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Per-CapitaNet Imports of Copper Goods[kg/(capita*a)]

Historical foreign trade statisticsData used for calibration of dynamic model

Net Addition to Stock, 20th century(incl. landfill)• rising from 1 to >10 kg/capita*a• now decoupling ?


2000

1950

1925

1975

1900

original system: 56 system variables, 45 system parameters

1900

2000

1950

Switzerland, 1900

Copperper capita (1900)stocks kgstock increase/flows

kg/year

trade+ production

trade+ production

Switzerland, 1950


kg/year

Switzerland, 2000


kg/year

trade+ production

environmental compartments

dismantling +waste treatment

movables

infrastructure

buildings

inorg. resources(incl. landfill)

trade+ production



movables

infrastructure

buildings


trade+ production



movables

infrastructure

buildings


rejects fromproduction

secondary copper to landfill

imports(goods, semi-finished products,scrap)

exports(goods, semi-finished products,scrap)

secondary copper for trade + production

movable products

installedlines

installedcomponents

runoff fromroofs

uninstalled components

abrasion of contact wires

disusedproductis

abrasion of vehicle breaks





movable products

installedlines

installedcomponents

runoff fromroofs



disusedproductis






movable products

installedlines

installedcomponents

runoff fromroofs



disusedproductis




Copper Household of Switzerland, 2000Results of the dynamic modelling


1900

2000

1950

Switzerland, 1900


kg/year

trade+ production

trade+ production

Switzerland, 1950


kg/year

Switzerland, 2000


kg/year

trade+ production



movables

infrastructure

buildings


trade+ production



movables

infrastructure

buildings


trade+ production



movables

infrastructure

buildings







movable products

installedlines

installedcomponents

runoff fromroofs



disusedproductis






movable products

installedlines

installedcomponents

runoff fromroofs



disusedproductis






movable products

installedlines

installedcomponents

runoff fromroofs



disusedproductis




1900

2000

1950

Switzerland, 1900


kg/year

trade+ production

trade+ production

Switzerland, 1950


kg/year

Switzerland, 2000


kg/year

trade+ production



movables

infrastructure

buildings


trade+ production



movables

infrastructure

buildings


trade+ production



movables

infrastructure

buildings







movable products

installedlines

installedcomponents

runoff fromroofs



disusedproductis






movable products

installedlines

installedcomponents

runoff fromroofs



disusedproductis






movable products

installedlines

installedcomponents

runoff fromroofs



disusedproductis




results of the dynamic modelling:snapshots in the20th century 1900

1950

resultsSystem

2000 1950 1900

Movables +0.6 +0.2 +0.1

Infrastructure +0.6 +1.0 +0.8

Buildings +1.1 +0.6 +0.2

Total +2.3 +1.8 +1.1

Net Addition to Stock, per (capita*a)

Copper Household of Switzerland

2000

Movables +0.6

Infrastructure +0.6

Buildings +1.1

Total +2.3


Influence of Building Conversion on the Copper HouseholdScenario: production buildings (PB) → multi-family buildings (MFB)

discussionScenario (I)

318'000 t 351'000 t

261118

PB GFARA

675252

414134

MFB GFARA

gross floor area (GFA)roofage area (RA)

given in [106 m2]

„Conversion“

(PB + MFB)

roofs

sanitary systems

heating systems

telecomm.systems

power systems

0

100

200

300

400

"Status quo"

Szenario Ia

stock [1'000 t]

-15kt


discussionScenario(I)

25

31

47

7

45

76

0

20

40

60

80

roofs heating+watersystems

elec.+telec.systems

stock change

[1'000 t] inputoutput

pipes andraw armatures

cablessheets

Copper Household of Switzerland, 2000Scenario: induced stock changes and flows, respectively


Growth Curves of the Stocksgiven in [kg/capita]

discussionDynamic Model

linear-logistic

stocks in buildings (total)

inorganic resources, incl. deposits environmental compartments


Fluss[kg/(capita*a)]

“use loss”

flow

Consequences

100 %

“self supply”

• self supply will about double within next 100yrs• „use losses“ to landfill will generally correlate with stock size• avg. life time: immovabels 40±20 a, movables 14±7a

prolongation (violet) 60±20 a, movables 20±7ashortening (turqois) 30±10 a, movables 10±7a

Fluss[kg/(capita*a)]

30-50%


N.B.: Stocks in landfills not considered for „Stockholm“ and „Schweden“, grey area for US. Sources: USA (Zeltner et al. 1999); Stockholm (Sörme et al. 2001); Schweden (Landner und Lindeström 1998); Cape Town (van Beers und Graedel 2003); Welt 2000; (Lichtensteiger 2002); Welt 1950 (Henstock 1996).

Comparison of Total Copper Stock for Selected Regions

50

14

290

50

170

140

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Welt, 1950

Welt, 2000

Cape Town (South Africa ), 2000

Sweden, 1999

Stockholm, 1995

USA, 1990

stocks[kg/capita]

CH


0 20 40 60 80

Cape Town

Stockholm

Schweiz

copper stock [kg/capita]

Roof

Sanitary systems

Heating systems

Telecommunication systems

Power systems

Regional Comparison of Copper Stock in Buildings


• “Urban exploration” by combination of SFA, survey of stocks and retrospective modelling

• Methodical results indicate that stock-driven approach are adequate for understanding and forecasts of long-living goods

• Application of the exploration method on other substances

• Drafts for a Zinc model are planned with methodical emphasis on comparison between elements and countries

Outlook

Conclusions


Dominic WittmerThomas Lichtensteiger

ETH Zurich – Swiss Federal Institute of Technologyand

Eawag – Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology

Contact address:Dominic Wittmer [email protected] Holding AG, SwitzerlandDivision of Environmental Geology, Contaminated Sites and Waste Deposits

Development of Resource Use Intensity

A Retrospective Approach to Draft Scenarios

Documents

Wittmer/Lichtensteiger, ETH Zurich/Eawag SwitzerlandSustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06 Development of Resource Use Intensity