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Social Media Before & During Sandy
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WISE GROCERY WEATHER EXPERTS PRESENT
The Weis Weather Scale
CREATED BYMeteorologists Ryan Breton, Faith Eherts, Bret Eilertson, Andrea Paparelli, Dan Rupp
Weis’ status among grocers:Focus study – Superstorm Sandy
Social Media Before & During Sandy
Did not stand out in advertising or social media. Did not stand out in terms of supply available.
D batteries, milk, bread, water ran out at the same time as other local stores
News of storm came from local media. Most Weis are a 24/7 operation, but several had to
close due to power outages. Estimated losses of over $125,000 per affected
store in perishables. Those that were renovated were able to
continue operations on safely located and efficient generators (few).renovations are still underway
Bolded bullets indicate points in which our analyses will improve the company.
Meteorology History Forecasting based on weather lore, farmers almanac,
and personal observations Instruments measured temperature, moisture, pressure,
and wind Observation based forecasting became prominent Radiosondes released every 12 hours Numerical weather prediction (Bjerknes and Richardson) 1940s team of meteorologists began to use modern
computers Eventually developed into super computers Satellite (Visible, Infrared imagery)
Forecasting HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) for short-
range forecasts MOS (Model Output Statistics) for 3 days in
advance GFS LAMP (Global Forecast System Local Aviation
MOS Program) for short term visibility, winds, lightning, cloud height and temperatures
ECMWF (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting) Known for its accuracy. Will be used for medium to long range forecasting
Forecasting HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) for short-range
forecasts Path & intensity of storms and cells
Example: July, 8, 2014 at 7pm
9-hour HRRR projection: Actual Doppler Radar:
What is a Weather Index?• Visual tool developed using various weather
variables and their impacts
• Organized in such a way that an individual can look at it and make snap decisions regarding various operation components – at both the corporate and store levels
• Weather index is applicable to all areas of the company’s operations
Timeframes and Their Data Sources Short Range
Between 6 and 24 hours: Designed to give specific information about weather that is occurring or imminent
Cold Season – mid-October to mid-April Warm Season – mid-April to mid-October Surface Data, Satellite/Radar, High-Resolution Computer
Models Medium Range
1-7 Days: Designed to give information about storm threats GFS (Global Forecast System), NAM (North American Model),
ECMWF (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting)
Long Range 1-3 weeks: Threats to produce, goods due to drought, freezes,
etc.nationwide
Data from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center
Update Availability
Short Range Active Weather Days – Especially
after threat has been identified in Medium Range Index
Medium Range Twice daily
Long Range Twice a week on Mondays and
Thursdays
All 3 Ranges Will UtilizeThe Same Color Code
Index Value and Color Weather Impact0 – None None
1 – Green Low2 – Yellow Moderate3 – Orange High
4 – Red Index Value & Color5 – Purple Extreme
Short-Range Index: COLD SEASON
Variable Value
Precipitation Amount
Precipitation Type
Average Visibility
Temperature Wind Speed
Rain Snow
0 0-0.1” 0” None Unrestricted >40 <5 mph1 0.1-0.75” <3” Rain 4-5 miles 30-40 5-15 mph2 0.75-1.5” 3-5” Rain & Snow 3-4 miles 20-30 15-25 mph3 1.5-3” 5-8” Rain, Snow, or
Sleet2-3 miles 10-20 25-35 mph
4 3-5” 8-12” Rain, Snow, Sleet or Freezing Rain
1-2 miles 0-10 35-45 mph
5 >5” >12” Combination of All
<1 mile <0 >45 mph
Index value = 0.5(Precipitation Amount) + 0.25(Precipitation Type) + 0.1(Visibility) + 0.1(Temperature) + 0.05(Wind Speed)
Short-Range Index: COLD SEASONIndex value = 0.5(Precipitation Amount) + 0.25(Precipitation Type) + 0.1(Visibility) + 0.1(Temperature) + 0.05(Wind Speed)
Scranton = 4.05 = 0.5(4) + 0.25(5) + 0.1(5) + 0.1(2) + 0.05(2)Philadelphia = 1.55 = 0.5(1) + 0.25(2) + 0.1(3) + 0.1(1) + 0.05(3)
Short-Range Index: WARM SEASONIndex value = 0.5(Precipitation Amount) + 0.25(SPC Convective
Outlook Category) + 0.15(Duration) + 0.05(Wind Speed) + 0.05(Temperature)
Variable Value
Amount of Rain
SPC Convective Outlook
Duration Wind Speed
Temperature
0 0-0.1” N/A N/A <5 mph 60-701 0.1-0.75” Marginal <1 hour 5-15 mph 70-802 0.75-1.5” Slight 1-3 hours 15-25 mph 80-853 1.5-3” Enhanced 3-6 hours 25-35 mph 85-904 3-5” Moderate 6-12 hours 35-45 mph 90-955 >5” High 12-24
hours>45 mph >95
Short-Range Index: WARM SEASONState College = 2.9 = 0.5(3) + 0.25(3) + 0.15(3) + 0.05(2) + 0.05(2)Philadelphia = 1.15 = 0.5(1) + 0.25(1) + 0.15(1) + 0.05(2) + 0.05(3)
Index value = 0.5(Precipitation Amount) + 0.25(SPC Convective Outlook Category) + 0.15(Duration) + 0.05(Wind Speed) +
0.05(Temperature)
Medium-Range IndexIndex value = 0.5(Precipitation Amount) + 0.15(Precipitation Type)
+ 0.15(Duration) + 0.1(Temperature) + 0.1(Wind Speed)
Variable Value
Precipitation Type of Precipitation
Duration Temperature Wind SpeedRain Snow
Warm Season
Cold Season
0 T – 0.25”
T –1” N/A <3 hours N/A N/A Light & Var.
1 0.25 - 5”
1 - 3” Rain 3-6 hours 60-70 >40 <15 mph
2 0.75 - 1.5”
3 - 5” Rain & Snow
6-18 hours 70-80 30-40 15-25 mph
3 1.5 - 3” 6-10” Rain & Sleet
18-36 hours
80-90 20-30 25-35 mph
4 3 - 5” 10-12”+
Rain & Freezing Rain
36-48 hours
90-95 10-20 35-45 mph
5 >5” >12 ” All Frozen Precipitation
>48 hours >95 <10 >45 mph
Medium-Range IndexIndex value = 0.5(Precipitation Amount) + 0.15(Precipitation Type)
+ 0.15(Duration) + 0.1(Temperature) + 0.1(Wind Speed)
State College = 3.85 = 0.5(4) + 0.15(5) + 0.15(2) + 0.1(4) + 0.1(1)Philadelphia = 2.1= 0.5(2) + 0.15(2) + 0.15(2) + 0.1(4) + 0.1(1)
Long-Range IndexIndex value = 0.5(Precipitation Departure) + 0.3(Duration) +
0.2(Temperature)
Variable Value
Departure from Normal Precipitation
Duration TemperatureWarm Season
Cold Season
0 N/A N/A N/A N/A1 Normal 7-10 days 60-70 >402 Slightly
Above/Below10-12 days 70-80 30-40
3 Moderately Above/Below
12-14 days 80-90 20-30
4 Highly Above/Below
2-3 weeks 90-95 10-20
5 Severely Above/Below
3+ weeks >95 <10
Long-Range Index
New York State = 1 = 0.5(1) + 0.3(1) + 0.2(1)Southern California = 3.3 = 0.5(3) + 0.3(4) + 0.2(3)
Index value = 0.5(Precipitation Departure) + 0.3(Duration) + 0.2(Temperature)
How Will You Receive the Index Via e-mail Developed App available for
Apple and Android DevicesPassword ProtectedPush Notifications