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Wisconsin is Open for Business
November 8, 2013
On the Other On the Other HandHand
Wisconsin Economic
Association
1
Dennis WintersChief, Office of Economic Advisors
Department of Workforce DevelopmentNovember 8, 2013
On the Other HandOn the Other Hand
Wisconsin Economics Association
Wisconsin is Open for Business
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Average Real GDP Growth First 9 Quarters of Recovery
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0Pe
rcent
2
ECONOMIC RECOVERYHOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES
Wisconsin is Open for Business
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Association
Average Real GDP Growth First 9 Quarters of Recovery
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0Pe
rcent
9.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1949 1954 1958 1960 1970 1975 1980 1982 1991 2001 2009
Real GDP Growth Sixteen Quarters into Recovery
33
ECONOMIC RECOVERYHOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES
Wisconsin is Open for Business
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JOBS RECOVERYHOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES
Wisconsin is Open for Business
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GDP = C + I + G + (I-M)
Wisconsin is Open for Business
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RECESSION COMPARISONSLAGGING ACROSS ALL INDICATORS
19.421.4
26.7 27.5
38.3
14.1
5.3 6.3
0.5
15.1
3.1
-1.7-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
GDP Consumption Investment Exports Imports Government
Percent change
Average '60 - '012007 Recession
Source: William Testa, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
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It is difficult to increase consumptionwhen you:
1. have stagnant income,2. are losing wealth,3. paying down debt,4. increasing savings,5. and are paying more for food and gas.
Wisconsin is Open for Business
November 8, 2013
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Wisconsin Economic
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REAL ESTATE EQUITYGETTING A NICE REBOUND
Wisconsin is Open for Business
November 8, 2013
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SECURITIES’ APPRECIATIONIS GETTING US BACK OVER THE HUMP
Wisconsin is Open for Business
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MANAGING RISK WHERE IS THE INCENTIVE TO EXPAND
Wisconsin is Open for Business
November 8, 2013
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135.0
140.0
145.0
150.0
155.0
160.0
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
Actual
100 / Mo.
200 / Mo.
300 / Mo.
Thousands5.5%
6.5%
7.5%
8.5%
9.5%Q1 ‘15
Q1 ‘17
Unemployment rates assume a participation rate of 63.5%
JOBS GROWTH SCENARIOSCONTRAINTS ON ECONOMY
Source: William Testa, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Wisconsin is Open for Business
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WISCONSIN JOBS ARE SHOWING A STEADY CLIMB
Wisconsin is Open for Business
November 8, 2013
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WISCONSIN MANUFACTURING JOBS ARE ALSO ON THE UPTICK
Wisconsin is Open for Business
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1414
WISCONSIN JOBS RECOVERYVERSUS PREVIOUS CYCLES
y = 0.0009x - 0.0822
-7.0%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
Perc
ent
Job
Lose
s S
ince
Rec
essi
on D
ecla
rati
on
Number of Months Since Recession Declaration
Wisconsin: QCEW Total Employment Change in the Last Three Recessions(QCEW data seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Census X12 program)
1990s recession2001 recession2007-2009 recession2010-Linear (2010-)
Estimated breach: July 2015
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AGE COHORTSTREATED DIFFERENTLY
Source: OEA, BLS
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Annual Average Unemployment Rate by Age - Wisconsin Total, 16+ Total, 16 to 19 yearsTotal, 20 to 24 years Total, 25 to 34 yearsTotal, 35 to 44 years Total, 45 to 54 yearsTotal, 55 to 64 years Total, 65 years and over
Wisconsin is Open for Business
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EDUCATION AND EMPLOYMENT STEADIER WORK
Wisconsin is Open for Business
November 8, 2013
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NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONSHAVE RECOVERED VALUE
Wisconsin is Open for Business
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OVERALL NON-CORPORATE PRIVATEBALANCE SHEET IMPROVING
Wisconsin is Open for Business
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FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEBTON THE OTHER HAND
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SWAPPING SECURITIES FOR CASH
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21Source: Federal Reserve Board, Data Download Program
-$500
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
Ja
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eb
-08
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ep
-08
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-11
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t-11
Reserves of Depository Institutions(billions of dollars)
Required Reserves
Total reserves
EXTENDING CREDITBANKS ARE RETICENT TO LEND FUNDS
Wisconsin is Open for Business
November 8, 2013
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Association
STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENTSHAVE LARGELY RECOVERED
Wisconsin is Open for Business
November 8, 2013
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STATE AND LOCAL SPENDING ON A NEW TRAJECTORY
Wisconsin is Open for Business
November 8, 2013
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He said,
She said.
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November 8, 2013
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HE SAID,HEY BABE, LOOK THE ECONOMY IS GROWING NICELY
Wisconsin is Open for Business
November 8, 2013
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SHE SAID,WE STILL HAVE A WAYS TO GO, DEAR
Wisconsin is Open for Business
November 8, 2013
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HE SAIDLOOK HONEY, HOUSING MARKET IS UP NICELY
Wisconsin is Open for Business
November 8, 2013
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SHE SAIDSWEETHEART, WE’RE NEVER GETTING BACK THERE
Wisconsin is Open for Business
November 8, 2013
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HE SAID,SUGAR, JOBS ARE CLIMBING
thou
sand
s
Wisconsin is Open for Business
November 8, 2013
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SHE SAID,DARLING, DON’T PISS OFF YOUR BOSS
Wisconsin is Open for Business
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HE SAID, LOVE, THEY’RE JACKING UP WAGES EVERYWHERE
• The minimum wage will increase in 10 states on January 1, 2013.
• Employers to be more generous with pay raises next year, CNNMoney.
• An improving job market is boosting wages, Herald and News.
• SHRM consensus is for an average budget increase of 3 percent.
• Hay Group says 3 percent salary increases in 2013.
Wisconsin is Open for Business
November 8, 2013
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SHE SAID, JIM, GET A GRIP
Wisconsin is Open for Business
November 8, 2013
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HE SAID, DREAMBOAT, WE’RE GONNA BE RICH
INCOME GROWTH(Q1:2010 – Q3:2012)
Source: BEA, OEA
Wisconsin is Open for Business
November 8, 2013
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SHE SAID,WILL YOU WAKE UP AND SMELL THE COFFEE
Wisconsin is Open for Business
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Who is in
demand?
Wisconsin is Open for Business
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*Job Openings includes both turnover and new jobs that are created.
MOST JOB OPENINGSBY OCCUPATION
Wisconsin is Open for Business
November 8, 2013
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MOST JOB OPENINGSON JOB CENTER OF WISCONSIN
Wisconsin is Open for Business
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MOST OFTEN HEARD POSITION CHALLENGESCHARACTERISTICS
OccupationAnnual % Growth
Growth Openings
Replacement Openings
Total Openings
Typical Entry Education
Median Wage
Heavy truck drivers 1.90 9,490 9,040 18,530 H.S. diploma $38,300
Welders 1.50 1,840 3,010 4,850 H.S. diploma $37,980
Customer service representatives
1.50 7,760 14,180 21,940 H.S. diploma $31,430
CNC machine operators 2.20 1,310 1,020 2,330 H.S. diploma $35,860
Maintenance workers, machinery
0.70 180 440 620 H.S. diploma $39,460
CNC machine operators 2.20 1,310 1,020 2,330 H.S. diploma $35,860
Nursing aides 1.50 6,300 4,900 11,200 Postsecondary $25,020
Registered nurses 2.20 13,780 10,450 24,230 Associate’s
degree$62,860
Mechanical engineers 0.70 470 2,010 2,480 Bachelor’s
degree$68,340
Food preparation and serving workers
2.30 15,360 17,140 32,500 < high school $17,910
Wisconsin is Open for Business
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WHAT TRAINING TO PURSUEFIVE MAKE ALL THREE LISTS
Make all three lists Total OpeningsTypical Entry
EducationMedian Wage
Food preparation 32,500 < high school $17,910
Customer service 21,940 H.S. diploma $31,430
Registered nurses 24,230 AD/BS $62,860
Heavy truck drivers 18,530 H.S. diploma $38,300
Health care aides 11,200 Postsecondary $25,020
Make two lists
Welders 4,850 H.S. diploma $37,980
Material Movers 38,900 H.S. diploma $23,590
Retail sales 69,030 < high school $20,570
Wisconsin is Open for Business
November 8, 2013
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Questions ?
Wisconsin is Open for Business
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Dennis Winters
Phone: 608-267-3262
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.dwd.wisconsin.gov
OEA website: www.dwd.wisconsin.gov/oea
CONTACT INFORMATION