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■ Wisconsin economic summits
Wisconsin Economic Summits ■ 08.26.2010
Wisconsin’s economy and the state of state finances
Confronting reality
■ Wisconsin economic summits
■ WISTAX: teaching, informing . . . angering
■ State economy & competitive position
■ State finances: past, present, future
■ Elephants in the room: #1 and #2
Overview
■ Wisconsin economic summits
The state of Wisconsin’s economy
■ Wisconsin economic summits
Creating, losing jobs
US vs. WI nonfarm jobs (SA), Jan 00 = 100 (Mo’ly)
96.7
99.8
3.0
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
9.0
10.5
12.0
US - WI
US
WI
■ Wisconsin economic summits
Avg. Earnings/Worker & GDP/Worker (WI % < > US)
Productivity & wages
-3.8%-6.2%
-12.9%
-10.9%
-13.2%
-12.7%
-14.8%
-5.0%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Productivity:GDP/Worker
Avg. Earnings/Job
■ Wisconsin economic summits
Sector WI US WI USAll 9.1% 7.6% -3.0% 5.2%
Construction 6.6% 9.0% -14.8% -1.7%Manufact'g -2.4% -8.1% -5.4% -3.7%
All - Const'n 9.5% 7.4% -1.5% 6.0%All - Manuf'g 10.1% 8.4% -2.9% 5.6%
05-0901-05
Pct. Change in No’s of Private EstablishmentsThird Quarter of Ea. Yr. Shown (BLS)
Gaining, losing employers
> v
■ Wisconsin economic summits
Big picture: “Product Wisconsin”
1.93%
1.90% 1.86%
1.77%
2.08%
1.77%
1.87%
1.70%
2.10%
1.50%
1.75%
2.00%
2.25%
1963 1971 1979 1987 1995 2003
MN
WI
Wis. % of US GDP
■ Wisconsin economic summits
Strategic view: Wis. as ‘product’
-80
-40
0
40
80
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60
^ wyak
ny
vaca
de
tx
ma
IA
WI
MI
MN
ILms
scky
"Stars"
"Dogs"
ar|id
WI98
GDP % chg
GDP pc
■ Wisconsin economic summits
Competitive position? Energy costs
$16.85$15.74
$16.73
$20.16$23.83
$26.49
$9.27$10.75 $11.76
$0
$7
$14
$21
$28
85 90 00 04 05 06 07 08
$/mill. BTUs, avg. comm/res/mfg.
Nat’l gas
Electricity
US avgs. = $28.75 e, $9.18 ngWI electric > IA, MN; ~IL, MI
US
US
■ Wisconsin economic summits
Investments/workerWI $22.30
US 204
IL 75
IA 25
MI 62
MN 174
$0.57$3.47
$67.68
$20.33
$23.16
$24.53
$28.04
$22.30
$0
$25
$50
$75
90 95 00 04 05 06 07 08
. . . Entrepreneurial activity: VC/worker
■ Wisconsin economic summits
. . . Entrepreneurial activity: patents
Per one million population
187
248
387358
317
386
344
341
100
200
300
400
85 90 00 04 05 06 07 08
WI 341
US 303
IL 278
IA 215
MI 358
MN 550
■ Wisconsin economic summits
How Wisconsin Taxes Compare NationallyRevenues as Pct. of Pers’l Income; FY 08: US Census
Competitive position? Taxes
Revenue US
% Inc. % Inc. +/- US Rank Rk Chg. % Inc. Rank
Taxes 11.20 11.76 5.0% 13 Up 1 11.75 14
Property 3.45 4.26 23.5% 8 2 4.23 10Sales 2.56 2.20 -14.1% 33 0 2.24 33Tobacco 0.14 0.23 64.3% 12 12 0.16 24Ind. Income 2.56 3.20 25.0% 12 2 3.19 14Corp. Inc. 0.49 0.42 -14.3% 23 2 0.46 25Curr. Chgs. 3.15 3.22 2.2% 29 2 3.05 31
Own Rev's 16.37 16.71 2.1% 21 2 16.53 23Fed. Rev. 4.05 3.56 -12.1% 38 -1 3.60 37
Wis. Wis. '07
Future years ?
■ Wisconsin economic summits
The state of state finances
■ Wisconsin economic summits
State finances vs. others (NASBO)
■ Surpluses % spdg. 2008 2009 ▪ Wisc vs. avg. 1.0% vs. 8.60.7% vs. 4.7 ▪ States > WI 49 41 ▪ Memo: MN, IA in 2008 ~ 11.0%
■ Spending % inc. 20102011 ▪ Wisc. (pre-lapse) +5.3%+5.2 ▪ 50-state avg. -6.8% +3.8%
43 cut 22 < +2%■ 2010-11 tax increases ▪ Only five states > in raw amt. (inc. CA, NY) ▪ Income tax hikes: 1 of 12 in ’10 (6 cut), 1 of 3 in ’11 (7 cut) ▪ Tobacco: 1 of 17 in ’10, 1 of 7 in ’11 ▪ 6 states incr. corp. income tax ‘10 (12 cut); 3 in ’11 (9 cut)
■ Wisconsin economic summits
Wis. Fin. Stmts ($b), GAAP
Outsider’s view of results, ‘09 (GAAP)
-2.46
-2.42-2.28
-1.27
-0.83
-1.21
-2.24
-1.93
-2.15
-2.44 -2.50-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.098 00 02 04 06 08 10e
$2.71 billion
Other states?
■ Wisconsin economic summits
State finances: Current budget
55.99
26.27
62.19
26.67
0
20
40
60
GPR All-Funds
+1.5%
+11.1%
$b
2007-09
2007-09
< ?! >
2009-11
■ Wisconsin economic summits
State fiscal future: Structural issue
1,232
2,511
11 rev (+ 12)
■ Wisconsin economic summits
Future ‘recovery’ dividend? (Delusion?)
“ … the pace of the recovery is expected to slow and will not return to pre-recession levels until 2013 . . .” − DOR, 8.20.10
Projected growth in personal income
CY WI-May WI-Aug US-Aug’10 3.0% 2.5% 3.2%’11 4.6 4.4 4.7’12 4.4 4.3 4.8’13 4.4 4.1 4.8
Why this matters.
■ Wisconsin economic summits
Structural deficits + slow growth =
■ GPR tax revenues (2010-11) $12.88 billion
■ Pers. income growth ’11 (4.4%) ’12 (4.3%)
■ 12.88 x 5% = $644 million [?!]
■ Structural ‘deficit’ ~ $1.23 billion
■ Wisconsin economic summits
■ One-time money and tricks?Transportation? Injured patients comp?
Stimulus?Recycling, utility public benefits? Tax
credits?!
■ Spending cuts?Big five: corrections? UW/techs? School
aids?Shared revenues? Medicaid (see slide)?!
■ Revenue increases? Rhetorical vs. real changes■ Debt?■ Unmentioned, scary stuff?
Options overview
■ Wisconsin economic summits
395.9
1,084.9
854.8
776.4
546.6
735
464
217350
313
179
0
250
500
750
1,000
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Total
Family/BC
Other
Participants (000)
Medicaid:
’98: 1/13’08: 1/5
MA deficits, fed help?
Autopilot driving budget
■ Wisconsin economic summits
■ Enacted in February$1.14 billion (‘09-‘10-‘11)
■ Added taxes:$1.9 billion (‘09-’11)
■ Added fees: $240 million
■ Totals:Three-years: $3.0+ billion
Revenue increases?
■ Wisconsin economic summits
■ Corporate income e.g. combined reporting, throwback
■ Individual incomeTop rate up, cap. gains newsCredits, but small, odd ‘mix’
■ Tobacco (but . . .)■ Hospital, etc. taxes■ Sales: ‘iPod’
Low-hanging fruit picked
■ Wisconsin economic summits
State finances and politics
■ 3D control to at least 1R, perhaps 2R??
■ Split governance: the good and the bad
■ Issue approaches?─ K-12 education (kids/unions vs. tax relief)─ Medicaid─ Local aids─ Higher education─ Prisons─ Tax, budget policy
■ Wisconsin economic summits
164.7200.2
256.8
153.4
539.5
365.2
282.1
0
100
200
300
400
500
91 95 99 03 07
Correct'n s
MA (Fed+St)
*School Aids/Crs.
cpi
Does legislative make-up matter?
■ Wisconsin economic summits
Harder choices?
■ Compensation: health, retirement, med-arb.
■ Schools: consolidations? e-learning? pay for performance? grad. testing? charters? ‘choice’?
■ UW System? enrollment proj’s, retention probs, job availability, & market need, wage dynamics? hi. tuition/aid? tenure?
■ Local governments: aid/revenue trades?
consolidation/cooperat’n?
■ Reorganize, reconnect? e.g., co. human
services? tech. colleges? counties/towns?
■ Wisconsin economic summits
Nothing else matters with an elephant in the room.Or two elephants.
■ Wisconsin economic summits
Elephant #1: Electorate and elected
■ Public mood and politics:~70% state gov’t fair/poor job~60% state priorities: jobs/econ. + tax/spendno others >~10%
■ Political dysfunction: ▪ 10-15 years of fiscal denial (R and D)
▪ political careerism + leadership power + special interest allies
▪ protect status quo; major policy changes since 2000?
▪ Wisconsin leader?
■ Wisconsin economic summits
Elephant #2: CBO 7.27.2010
■ “. . . US government debt held by the public has grown rapidly—to the point that, compared with the total output of the economy, it is now higher than it has ever been except during . . . World War II.”
■ “. . . deficits will cause debt to rise to unsupportable levels.” ▪ crowding out of private savings/investment leading to “lower output and incomes” ▪ Rising interest costs forcing program cuts and inability “to respond to unexpected crises” ▪ Higher marginal tax rates “would discourage work and saving and further reduce output” ▪ “increase the probability of a sudden fiscal crisis . . . during which investors would lose confidence in the government’s ability to manage its budget . . .
■ Wisconsin economic summits*The alternative fiscal scenario deviates from CBO’s baseline projections, beginning in 2010, by incorporating some changes in policy that are widely expected to occur and that policymakers have regularly made in the past
Elephant #2: The big train wreck
CBOJune 09
US GDP
Federal Debt Held by the Public Under CBO’s Long-Term Budget Scenarios (Pct. GDP)
■ Wisconsin economic summits
Questions, quibbles, prayers?
The Wisconsin Taxpayers AllianceOur eighth decade of teaching and informing the press and public about how their government works, taxes, and spends.
Thank you for making our nonpartisan researchand citizen education possible.
www.wistax.org
■ Wisconsin economic summits
Wisconsin attitudes (proprietary poll)
■ Wis. right/wrong track? (7.10) — Total: 34% vs. 58% (wrong); reg. voter (32-60) — R: 21% vs. 71% Ind: 31% vs. 62% D: 50% vs. 40% Union HH: 32% vs. 60%
■ Economy will get: 38% better, 40% same, 19% worse
■ Top priority of gov/legislature: Jobs/econ: 39%; taxes/spdg: 19%; health OR ed: 11% each
■ State gov’t doing fair/poor job: 68% tot, R 80%, I 73%, D 54%, union HH 73%