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*New Research Theme* Economics of Precision Medicine HEHTA is pleased to announce the launch of its eighth theme, The Economics of Precision Medicine, which will be led by Professor Neil Hawkins. Population health will be improved by identifying treatments that have favourable risk-benefit or cost-effectiveness ratios for individual patients 1 - by using the right treatment for the right patient at the right time. To complement the University of Glasgow’s focus on precision medicine, exemplified by the opening of the Stratified Medicine Scotland Innovation Centre (a £20m collaboration between Academia, industry and the NHS) HEHTA is introducing a new research theme entitled “Economics of Precision Medicine.” One of the challenges of precision medicine is to distinguish between chance variation and ‘real’ reproducible subgroup effects. Unreliable subgroup analysis may harm patients and waste scarce resources – not least through futile confirmatory trials. HEHTA is hosting an MRC funded research project that will address this challenge. We will investigate the use of fully Bayesian methods to increase the reliability of subgroup selection. We are also investigating the use of early stage health technology assessment to identify promising candidate precision medicine candidates in order to increase the productivity of clinical development. Finally, we will be investigating the implications of precision medicine for study design 2 and technology pricing 3 . To mark the introduction of this new theme, HEHTA is hosting an afternoon workshop, Improving the focus of Precision Medicine: the role of Health Technology Assessment (HTA), on 20th January 2017. The workshop will comprise a series of talks given by invited speakers. For further details please email [email protected]. HEHTA Newsletter Winter 2016 Welcome The Health Economics and Health Technology Assessment (HEHTA) team at Glasgow University are delighted to introduce their Winter newsletter. In this first externally circulated edition we introduce a number of exciting new developments including the launch of HEHTA’s new Research theme on the Economics of Precision Medicine, led by Professor Neil Hawkins. HEHTA are also pleased to announce the development of three new online CPD courses offered for the first time in September / October 2016. HEHTA’s joint seminar series with Glasgow Caledonian University (GhESS) has seen a very busy time of it with a number of recent speakers including Professor Philip Clarke from Melbourne University giving a historical perspective on the methodology of economic evaluation. In the last few months HEHTA has been promoting its headline-making research and engagement in public discussions and activities demonstrating the impact of health economic research on daily lives and health, of note HEHTA was selected to host a research station at the Glasgow Science Centre on the evening of 30th September 2016 during Explorathon ’16. We hope you enjoy reading this newsletter. For further details about HEHTA’s work or to contact us for more information please visit : www.gla.ac.uk/researchinstitutes/ healthwellbeing/research/hehta/ twitter.com/HEHTAGlasgow

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Page 1: Winter 2016 - University of Glasgow · PDF filemost recent event we welcomed Hareth Al-janabi from Birmingham University, who gave a seminar entitled ‘Including carers’ quality

*New Research Theme*Economics of Precision Medicine HEHTA is pleased to announce the launch of its eighth theme, The Economics of Precision Medicine, which will be led by Professor Neil Hawkins. Population health will be improved by identifying treatments that have favourable risk-benefit or cost-effectiveness ratios for individual patients1 - by using the right treatment for the right patient at the right time. To complement the University of Glasgow’s focus on precision medicine, exemplified by the opening of the Stratified Medicine Scotland Innovation Centre (a £20m collaboration between Academia, industry and the NHS) HEHTA is introducing a new research theme entitled “Economics of Precision Medicine.”

One of the challenges of precision medicine is to distinguish between chance variation and ‘real’ reproducible subgroup effects. Unreliable subgroup analysis may harm patients and waste scarce resources – not least through futile confirmatory trials. HEHTA is hosting an MRC funded research project that will address this challenge. We will investigate the use of fully Bayesian methods to increase the reliability of subgroup selection. We are also investigating the use of early stage health technology assessment to identify promising candidate precision medicine candidates in order to increase the productivity of clinical development. Finally, we will be investigating the implications of precision medicine for study design2 and technology pricing3.

To mark the introduction of this new theme, HEHTA is hosting an afternoon workshop, Improving the focus of Precision Medicine: the role of Health Technology Assessment (HTA), on 20th January 2017. The workshop will comprise a series of talks given by invited speakers. For further details please email [email protected].

HEHTA Newsletter Winter 2016

WelcomeThe Health Economics and Health Technology Assessment (HEHTA) team at Glasgow University are delighted to introduce their Winter newsletter.In this first externally circulated edition we introduce a number of exciting new developments including the launch of HEHTA’s new Research theme on the Economics of Precision Medicine, led by Professor Neil Hawkins. HEHTA are also pleased to announce the development of three new online CPD courses offered for the first time in September / October 2016. HEHTA’s joint seminar series with Glasgow Caledonian University (GhESS) has seen a very busy time of it with a number of recent speakers including Professor Philip Clarke from Melbourne University giving a historical perspective on the methodology of economic evaluation.

In the last few months HEHTA has been promoting its headline-making research and engagement in public discussions and activities demonstrating the impact of health economic research on daily lives and health, of note HEHTA was selected to host a research station at the Glasgow Science Centre on the evening of 30th September 2016 during Explorathon ’16.

We hope you enjoy reading this newsletter. For further details about HEHTA’s work or to contact us for more information please visit :

www.gla.ac.uk/researchinstitutes/healthwellbeing/research/hehta/

twitter.com/HEHTAGlasgow

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HEHTA’s public engagement activitiesEntitled ‘The Health Minister’s Dilemma’, HEHTA has been promoting its headline-making research and engagement in public discussions and activities demonstrating the impact of health economic research on daily lives and health.

ExplorathonHEHTA was selected to host a research station at Glasgow Science Centre on the evening of 30th September 2016 during Explorathon ’16. http://www.explorathon.co.uk/ The event was part of European Researchers’ Night, held simultaneously across Europe on the last Friday in September to celebrate research and researchers, and funded by the European Commission under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie actions programme.

Festival of Social SciencesPromoting our alcohol-focussed research, the team and collaborators from NHS Scotland (Mark Robinson and Matthis Heydtmann) set up stall in the Barras as part of the ESRC nationwide funded Festival of Social Science.

Watch this space for activities in 2017.

New CPD courses (online distance learning) • Statistical methods for HTA and evidence-based medicine 9 January – 24 March 2017

• Foundations of Decision analytic modelling 20 February – 24 March 2017

• Survival analysis for HTA 9 January – 10 February

• HTA in a global context 9 January – 24 March 2017

Three new courses started in September/October:

• Outcomes measurement and valuation for HTA

• HTA: Policy and Principles

• Qualitative research methods for HTA

For further details of all courses, see our website or contact our admin team at [email protected]

Glasgow health Economics Seminar Series (GhESS)HEHTA’s seminar series (which is run in conjunction with Glasgow Caledonian University) has seen a very busy few months. On 20th September we welcomed John Cairns from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who gave a presentation entitled ‘A novel method for collecting health state information from children.’ Professor Philip Clarke was our guest speaker on 23rd September, when he presented on ‘Economic Evaluation : a brief history.’ At the most recent event we welcomed Hareth Al-janabi from Birmingham University, who gave a seminar entitled ‘Including carers’ quality of life in economic evaluation.

Professor Andy Briggs chaired a seminar hosted by the Institute of Health & Wellbeing when Professor James Robinson presented on ‘Medical Innovation in an Era of Health Care Spending Constraints.’ Professor Robinson is Director of the Berkeley Center for Health Technology (BCHT) at the University of California at Berkeley. The talk focussed on the impact of reference pricing on consumer choices, employer spending, and health outcomes for inpatient and outpatient surgery, laboratory tests, diagnostic imaging, and pharmaceuticals.

Society for Medical Decision Making (SMDM) success for HEHTA PhD studentOne of HEHTA’s PhD students, Ciaran Kohli-Lynch, won a prestigious award for his poster presentation at SMDM’s 2016 North America meeting. Ciaran was awarded the Lee B Lusted student prize for outstanding presentation of research for his poster on ‘Signalling Demand: PCSK9 Inhibitors for Statin Intolerant Individuals’.

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ISPOR Asia-Pacific : 3-6 September, Singapore HEHTA was represented at ISPOR in Singapore by Jim Lewsey. As well as presenting a paper on ‘Development of an alcohol policy model that predicts life years, QALYs and health care costs accounting for alcohol use disorder identification test’, Jim welcomed many visitors to our stand at which there was much interest in our MSc in HTA course as well as our suite of online CPD courses.

HEPA Europe Manuela Deidda presented at the 12th Annual Meeting and 6th conference of HEPA Europe, which took place between the 28th and 30th September at Queen’s University Belfast. Manuela’s presentation was entitled ‘Reducing sedentary behaviour among older adults – the SITLESS Project health economic approaches to evaluating international sedentary behaviour interventions’. SITLESS is a Horizon 2020 project comprising 4 sites across Europe with the health Economics work-package led by Professor Emma McIntosh.

Conference newsEuHEA 2016 : 14-16 July, Hamburg

HEHTA hosts CONITEC visitors from Brazil

The Brazilian Public Health System has been undergoing major change in the last few years since the creation of the National Committee for Health Technology Incorporation (CONITEC). CONITEC defines the criteria and deadlines for technology incorporation in the public health system in Brazil. The Committee is responsible for advising the Brazilian Ministry of Health in the incorporation or disinvestment of health technologies into the health care system and development of clinical guidelines. HEHTA were delighted to host a group from CONITEC to discuss differences in HTA between the UK and Brazil.

Claudia Geue (Lecturer), Nicki Boyer (Research Assistant), Giorgio Ciminata (PhD student) and Nicola McMeekin (Research Assistant) attended the 11th EuHEA conference in Hamburg, Germany on 13 – 16 July 2016, hosted by the Hamburg Centre for Health Economics.

The theme of the conference was ‘Know the Ropes – Balancing Costs and Quality in Healthcare’, a nod to the maritime history of Hamburg.

The three plenary speakers included Mark Sculpher, Brigitte Dormont and Pedro Pita Barros, who all delivered stimulating speeches. With over 100 sessions included in the programme, covering a wide range of topics including outcome measures, HTA, finance, inequalities and methodology, the conference delegates were spoilt for choice.

HEHTA team members gave a total of four presentations and one poster presentation:

‘Can conceptual modelling methodology from other disciplines inform conceptual modelling methodology in economic evaluations of healthcare?’ Nicola McMeekin (poster presentation)‘Population health economic evaluation of the school-based Roots of Empathy programme in Northern Ireland’ Nicki Boyer

‘The inpatient and social care cost of atrial fibrillation in Scotland’ Giorgio Ciminata

‘Determinants of healthcare expenditure at the end of life for cancer patients in Scotland’ Claudia Geue

‘The Scottish Keep Well health check programme: an interrupted time series analysis’ Claudia Geue

There were also opportunities to socialise with other researchers in breaks and at the evening event which took place on the Cap San Diego, a museum ship docked in Hamburg’s harbour.

The Cap San Diego, Hamburg

Claudia, Giorgio, Nicki, Nicola

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ISPOR Europe Conference – Vienna

HEHTA Away Day

From priority-setting decisions to health impact: new explorations of a complex translation process

Members of the International Decision Support Initiative (iDSI), including HEHTA, organised a panel session on evaluating the impact of priority-setting decisions and health technology assessment at the International Society on Priorities in Health conference held in Birmingham 7-9th September. The panel aimed to illustrate the complex relationship between priority-setting processes, decisions and impact using a combination of case studies from individual priority-setting exercises, and conceptual overviews of systems within which HTA operates. Institutionalisation of HTA is moving forward in many countries making the journey towards universal health coverage. This has been bolstered by commitments at a global level, such as the World Health Assembly resolution in 2014 which recognised the role HTA and robust priority-setting processes can play in making fair resource allocation decisions and sustaining health systems’ performance. However, even in countries where HTA programmes are well-established, research identifying their outcomes and impact in terms of health gains is limited. Past evaluations and studies from the UK and international literature mainly focus on the effect HTA has on policy processes and decision-making, rather than outcomes. In the UK, recent evaluations of the NIHR’s HTA programme confirmed that impact on knowledge generation is more easily quantified than that on policy outputs or especially health gain. For countries with greater capacity constraints, how decision-making interacts with ‘context’ leading to health outcomes is even less explored and arguably of critical importance. Measuring health in terms of health gains necessarily requires implementation to be addressed; however, it is also evident that this is the least researched area of HTA. The session discussed the expected benefits of HTA for priority-setting, and what is needed to realise these benefits beyond the existence of evidence and policy will. The initial presentation was on HEHTA’s work developing a methodological approach for measuring the impact of HTA on the uptake of best practice. This method uses the outcome of net health benefits (NHBs) to compare the potential¬ population health benefit and realised population health. The approach involves the use both of economic decision models to quantify the magnitude of impact, and of theory-driven approaches to generate and test contextual explanations for a gap between expected and actual gains in population health. A second presentation by the Health Intervention and Technology Assessment Program in Thailand (HITAP) focused on case studies from specific priority-setting exercises which have estimated the extent of this gap. Finally, a presentation from Itad demonstrated how priority-setting initiatives can incorporate the factors affecting implementation and impact into reflections on their work. Itad have developed indicators to describe key enabling and constraining aspects of the policy environment which are used for ongoing learning and monitoring of iDSI’s country-level and international activities. For more information on iDSI: http://www.idsihealth.org/ For more information on the Priorities 2016 conference: http://www.birmingham.ac.uk/generic/priorities-conference-2016/index.aspx

Several members of HEHTA attended the ISPOR conference in Vienna, and Jim had the chance to catch up with one of our MSc HTA students, Rodrigo Martins de Almeida (pictured below).

On 14th September the team enjoyed a fun-filled afternoon at the Riddle Room and Escape Room, following a morning strategising our plans for the upcoming academic year.

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Staff Profile Willings Botha

Tell us about some of the research you’re working on at the moment:

I am working on my PhD research which is concerned with the development of a broader economic evaluative space for a public health intervention. In order to carry out an empirical analysis, I am using the Woods In and Around Town (WIAT) project in Scotland, which is an environmental improvement intervention for mental well-being.

Given that the outcomes of a public health intervention can be broad

consisting health and non-health related outcomes, as such, they do not fit into the traditionally used and favoured appraisal framework of quality adjusted life years (QALYs), my research explores the use of an integrated approach.

What is the most challenging aspect of your work?

The most challenging aspect of my work has been the complexity of the case study that I am using for empirical analysis. There are so many interrelated aspects that require detailed analysis. However, this is not unique to my study. Public health interventions are generally considered complex, hence the challenge in undertaking their economic evaluations. Perhaps, that’s why there is a PhD in it.

What attracted you to the field of Health Economics and HTA?

It was when I was studying for my recent postgraduate qualification that interest in Health Economics and HTA developed. I wanted to apply my knowledge in business modelling and economics to health, hence my dissertation was on ‘sustainable e-health business models for the Sub-Saharan region’.

Where would you most like to visit?

I have travelled to many countries but have never been to the US. This is where I would most like to visit.

What are your hobbies?

I like walking and visiting natural environments. Partly because of my PhD which looks at the benefits of nature on our well-being. On a sunny day, I like listening to music, danceable music.

What do you like to do in your spare time?

I spend time with my family. A good outdoor walk if the weather is good or just chill at home while roasting chicken wings.

What is a book you think everyone should read?

‘How the west was lost’ by Dambisa Moyo - It illustrates how developed countries have squandered their dominant position through flawed policies and how China has taken advantage of this to its favour. It is a very good read.

Staff News PhD success!

Staff Update

A big congratulations to Camilla who successfully defended her PhD at her viva subject to minor corrections on 25th August and to her supervisors, Prof. Emma McIntosh and Prof. Carol Tannahill (GCPH)!

Visiting affiliate member of staff

We were delighted to welcome Dr Carlos Wong, Research Assistant Professor of the Department of Family Medicine and Primary Care at the University of Hong Kong. Carlos received his PhD from the University of Hong Kong for his work on health-related quality of life of

colorectal cancer and economic evaluation of colorectal cancer screening. Prior to his PhD, He graduated with Bachelor and MPhil degrees from the Department of Mathematics at HK University of Science and Technology. His research interests are patient-reported outcome measurement including quality of life, and health services research, particularly retrospective administrative database research and cost-effectiveness analysis of health care interventions. He has published more than 90 articles in peer-reviewed journals in field of quality of life, health economics, evaluation of primary and secondary care interventions. He was recently appointed as a member of the editorial board of journal ‘The Patient - Patient-Centered Outcomes Research’.

Carlos spent two months with us, learning more about our research and teaching. During this time, he worked on two research projects, one which aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness analysis of renal replacement therapy among end-stage renal disease patients in Hong Kong; and a second which will explore whether there are ICER thresholds in the decision on accepting emerging health technology in Hong Kong.

September saw the departure of two members of staff. Zahid Quayyum had been with HEHTA for two years, working on a number of projects. Miranda Trevor joined HEHTA in 2014 as a trainee researcher, and has left to commence her medical studies at the University of Newcastle. We wish them both much success in their new positions!

Page 6: Winter 2016 - University of Glasgow · PDF filemost recent event we welcomed Hareth Al-janabi from Birmingham University, who gave a seminar entitled ‘Including carers’ quality

This summer Jennie decided to do something a little different with her holidays – she decided to go and work on a dairy farm for a week! The photos are to prove that she did indeed get stuck in and get her hands dirty. She was interested to learn more about organic farming and the organisation WWOOF (World Wide Opportunities on Organic Farms) provided a great opportunity to do so. She was impressed by the local farmers’ dedication to a cause they believed in, despite the reduction in revenue going organic has meant for them. Through the experience she learnt more about the seriousness of the organic cause, about the process of making cheese and she also managed to pick up some hand-milking skills!

Huge congratulations to Robert Heggie who completed the Mont Blanc marathon on 24 June!

WHOOF!

• ‘The impact of social care expenditure at the end of life: a novel linkage study in Scotland’ Claudia Geue, International Data Linkage Network, Swansea, 24-26.8.16.

• ‘Work plan for the Health Economics Work Package’ Claudia Geue, Moira Aitken, EC Horizon2020 PATHway Consortium meeting, Thessaloniki, Greece, 20-21.9.16.

• ‘From priority-setting decisions to health impact: new explorations of a complex translation process’ Eleanor Grieve, International Society on Priorities in Health conference, Birmingham, 7-9.9.16.

• ‘Development of an alcohol policy model that predicts life years, QALYs, and health care costs accounting for alcohol use disorder’ Jim Lewsey, ISPOR 7th Asia-Pacific Conference, Singapore, 5.9.16.

• ‘A cost-utility analysis of different antiviral medicine regimens in patients with chronic hepatitis c virus genotype 1 infection: an economic micro-simulation decision model’ Mohsen Rezaei, ISPOR 7th Asia-Pacific Conference, Singapore, 4.9.16.

• ‘NIHR CRSU – the National Institute for Health Research Complex Reviews Support Unit: supporting successful delivery of complex reviews’, Moira Aitken, poster presentation, Cochrane Colloquium, Grand Hilton, Seoul, Korea, 23-27.10.16.

• ‘Methods of Early Health Technology Assessment in Precision Medicine’, Janet Bouttell and Neil Hawkins, poster presentation, GMP Node Annual Symposium, Glasgow, 24.10.16.

• ‘Age, Period and Cohort (APC) effects in suicide in Scotland’, Janet Bouttell, Jim Lewsey, Jane Parkinson, Jon Minton, Gerry McCartney. Faculty of Public Health Conference, Dunblane Hydro Hotel, 27-28.10.16.

• ‘Signalling demand: PCSK9 Inhibitors for Statin Intolerant Individuals’, Ciaran Kohli-Lynch, poster presentation, SMDM North America, 23-26.10.16.

• ‘Prioritising Individuals for Preventive Statin Therapy: Beyond Ten-Year Risk’, Ciaran Kohli-Lynch, poster presentation, SMDM North America, 23-26.10.16.

• ‘How NICE appraisal supports the rational access to new and expensive medication’, Olivia Wu, 45th ESCP Symposium on Clinical Pharmacy jointly organised with NSF: “Clinical pharmacy tackling inequalities and access to health care”, Oslo, Norway, 5-7.10.16.

• ‘Statistical Methods for Pharmacoeconomics & Outcomes Research’, short course, Jim Lewsey, Gerd K Rosenkranz. ISPOR Europe, Vienna, Austria, 29.10.16.

• ‘Meta-Analysis & Systematic Literature Review’, short course, Olivia Wu, Neil Hawkins. ISPOR Europe, Vienna, Austria, 29.10.16.

• ‘Collecting Health-State Utility Estimates for Economic Models in Clinical Studies’, short course, Andrew Briggs, Sorrel Wolowacz, Andrew J. Lloyd, Lynda Doward. ISPOR Europe, Vienna, Austria, 29.10.16.

• ‘Development of Conceptual Models’, short course, Neil Hawkins, Elisabeth Fenwick, Paul Tappenden, Beth Woods, Mark S. Roberts. ISPOR Europe, Vienna, Austria, 29.10.16.

• ‘Understanding Survival Modeling with Application to HTA’, short course, Andrew Briggs, Christopher Parker, Andrew Davies. ISPOR Europe, Vienna, Austria, 30.10.16.

• ‘Introduction to the Economic Analysis of Diagnostics’, short course, Andrew Briggs, John E Schneider. ISPOR Europe, Vienna, Austria, 30.10.16.

• ‘Health Economics in End of Life Care’, Claudia Geue, ICAMs – Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, 3.11.16.

• ‘The prescribing, inpatient, outpatient and social care costs associated with atrial fibrillation in Scotland’, Giorgio Ciminata, UK Stroke Forum, Liverpool, 28-30.11.16.

Presentations

Page 7: Winter 2016 - University of Glasgow · PDF filemost recent event we welcomed Hareth Al-janabi from Birmingham University, who gave a seminar entitled ‘Including carers’ quality

Publications Becker, U., Briggs, A. H., Moreno, S. G., Ray, J. A., Ngo, P., and Samanta, K. (2016) Cost-effectiveness model for chemoimmunotherapy options in patients with previously untreated chronic lymphocytic leukemia unsuitable for full-dose fludarabine-based therapy. Value in Health, 19(4), pp. 374-382. (doi:10.1016/j.jval.2015.12.018) (PMID:27325329)

Bouttell, J., Lewsey, J., Geue, C., Antony, G., Briggs, A., McCartney, G., Hutchinson, S., Graham, L., and Heydtmann, M. (2016) The SCottish alcoholic liver disease evaluation: a population-level matched cohort study of hospital-based costs, 1991-2011. PLoS ONE, 11(10), e0162980. (doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0162980) (PMID:27783619)

Boyd, K., Tappin, D. M., and Bauld, L. (2016) Cost-effectiveness of financial incentives for smoking cessation in pregnancy. Addiction, 111(6), pp. 115-117. (doi:10.1111/add.13374) (PMID:27157899)

Egan, M., Kearns, A., Katikireddi, S. V., Curl, A., Lawson, K., and Tannahill, C. (2016) Proportionate universalism in practice? A quasi-experimental study (GoWell) of a UK neighbourhood renewal programme’s impact on health inequalities. Social Science and Medicine, 152, pp. 41-49. (doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2016.01.026)

Hunter, R. F. et al. (2016) Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a physical activity loyalty scheme for behaviour change maintenance: a cluster randomised controlled trial. BMC Public Health, 16, 618. (doi:10.1186/s12889-016-3244-1) (PMCID:PMC4957294)

Keshavarz, K., Kebriaeezadeh, A., Alavian, S. M., Sari, A. A., Rezaei Hemami, M., Lotfi, F., Meshkini, A. H., Javanbakht, M., Keshvari, M., and Nikfar, S. (2016) A cost utility and cost effectiveness analysis of different oral antiviral medications in patients with HBeAg-Negative chronic hepatitis B in Iran: an economic microsimulation decision model. Hepatitas Monthly, 16(9), e37435. (doi:10.5812/hepatmon.37435)

McAuley, A., Bouttell, J., Barnsdale, L., Mackay, D., Lewsey, J., Hunter, C., and Robinson, M. (2016) Evaluating the impact of a national naloxone programme on ambulance attendance at overdose incidents: a controlled time series analysis. Addiction, (doi:10.1111/add.13602) (PMID:27614084) (Early Online Publication)

Mealing, S., Woods, B., Hawkins, N., Cowie, M. R., Plummer, C. J., Abraham, W. T., Beshai, J. F., Klein, H., and Sculpher, M. (2016) Cost-effectiveness of implantable cardiac devices in patients with systolic heart failure. Heart, (doi:10.1136/heartjnl-2015-308883) (PMID:27411837) (Early Online Publication)

Nahvijou, A., Daroudi, R., Tahmasebi, M., Hashemi, F. A., Rezaei Hemami, M., Sari, A. A., Marenani, A. B., and Zendehdel, K. (2016) Cost effectiveness of different cervical screening strategies in Islamic Republic of Iran: a middle-income country with a low incidence rate of cervical cancer. PLoS ONE, 11(6), e0156705. (doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0156705) (PMID:27276093) (PMCID:PMC4898767)

Parkinson, J., Minton, J., Lewsey, J., Bouttell, J., and McCartney, G. (2016) Recent cohort effects in suicide in Scotland: a legacy of the 1980s? Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 27485053. (doi:10.1136/jech-2016-207296) (Early Online Publication)

Städler, N., Shang, A., Bosch, F., Briggs, A., Goede, V., Berthier, A., Renaudin, C., and Leblond, V. (2016) A systematic review and network meta-analysis to evaluate the comparative efficacy of interventions for unfit patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia. Advances in Therapy, (doi:10.1007/s12325-016-0398-2) (PMID:27535291) (Early Online Publication)

Tabberer, M., Gonzalez-McQuire, S., Muellerova, H., Briggs, A., Rutten-van Molken, M., Chambers, M., and Lomas, D. A. (2016) Development of a conceptual model of disease progression for use in economic modeling of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Medical Decision Making, (doi:10.1177/0272989X16662009) (PMID:27486218) (Early Online Publication)

Tiffin, P. A., Mwandigha, L. M., Paton, L. W., Hesselgreaves, H., McLachlan, J. C., Finn, G. M., and Kasim, A. S. (2016) Predictive validity of the UKCAT for medical school undergraduate performance: a national prospective cohort study. BMC Medicine, 14, 140. (doi:10.1186/s12916-016-0682-7) (PMID:27638740) (PMCID:PMC5026770)

Tremblay, G., Livings, C., Crowe, L., Kapetanakis, V., and Briggs, A. (2016) Determination of the most appropriate method for extrapolating overall survival data from a placebo-controlled clinical trial of lenvatinib for progressive, radioiodine-refractory differentiated thyroid cancer. ClinicoEconomics and Outcomes Research, 2016(8), pp. 323-333. (doi:10.2147/CEOR.S107498) (PMID:27418847) (PMCID:PMC4934460)

Wildman, J., McMeekin, P., Grieve, E., and Briggs, A. (2016) Economic evaluation of integrated new technologies for health and social care: Suggestions for policy makers, users and evaluators. Social Science and Medicine, 169, pp. 141-148. (doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2016.09.033) (PMID:27721138)

Willett, K. et al. (2016) Close contact casting vs surgery for initial treatment of unstable ankle fractures in older adults: a randomized clinical trial. JAMA: Journal of the American Medical Association, 316(14), pp. 1455-1463. (doi:10.1001/jama.2016.14719) (PMID:27727383)

Williams, C., Lewsey, J. D., Briggs, A. H., and Mackay, D. F. (2016) Cost-effectiveness analysis in R using a multi-state modelling survival analysis framework: a tutorial. Medical Decision Making, (doi:10.1177/0272989X16651869) (Early Online Publication)

Williams, C., Lewsey, J. D., Briggs, A. H., and Mackay, D. F. (2016) Estimation of survival probabilities for use in cost-effectiveness analysis: a comparison of a multi-state modelling survival analysis approach with partitioned survival and Markov decision-analytic modelling. Medical Decision Making, (doi:10.1177/0272989X16670617) (PMID:27698003) (Early Online Publication)

Xin, Y., and McIntosh, E. (2016) Assessment of the construct validity and responsiveness of preference-based quality of life measures in people with Parkinson’s: a systematic review. Quality of Life Research, (doi:10.1007/s11136-016-1428-x) (Early Online Publication)

Book SectionsMcGee-Lennon, M., Boumrane, M-M., Grieve, E. et al. (2016) A flexible toolkit for evaluating person-centred digital health and wellness at scale. In: Duffy, V. G. and Lightner, N. (eds.) Advances in Human Factors and Ergonomics in Healthcare. Series: Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing (482). Springer: Cham, pp. 105-118. ISBN 9783319416519 (doi:10.1007/978-3-319-41652-6_11)

© University of Glasgow 2016 Design: MVLS Design and Communication, University of Glasgow The University of Glasgow, charity number SC004401

The HEHTA team would like to wish all our colleagues and

collaborators a relaxing and fun filled winter break and a happy

and healthy 2017.