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Windows of opportunity? Police reform in Scotland in comparative
perspective
Professor Nick Fyfe
Scottish Institute for Policing Research
& University of Dundee
SIPR-GMU Symposium
October 2014
2013
1975
1850s 1950s 1970s 1975 20130
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
From 90 to 1: numbers of police forces in Scotland
Converging trajectories?
• Recent history of mergers of police districts/forces…
• Denmark: 72 to 54 to 12;• Norway: 54 to 27;• Finland: 90 to 24;• Sweden: 118 to 21 to 1• Netherlands: 25 to 1;
A national force: centralizing or decentralizing*?
Scotland
• 8 regional forces to a national police service
• Legislation: 2 levels (national and 32 local authorities);
• Implementation: 5 levels (national, 3 areas, 14 divisions, 32 local areas, 353 wards)
Netherlands• 25 regional forces to a
national police service;• Legislation: 3 levels
(national, 10 units, 408 municipalities);
• Implementation: 5 levels (national, 10 units, 43 districts, 168 basic teams, 408 municipalities).
• (*based on research with Jan Terpstra)
Governance and accountability*
Scotland
Scottish Ministers
Scottish PoliceAuthority
Chief Constable
(Local Council)
Netherlands
Dutch Ministers
Chief Constable
The ‘Local Triangle’
(local mayor/municipal council, public prosecutor
and police commander)(*based on research with Jan
Terpstra)
Local Policing*
Scotland• Legal requirement for
‘local policing’ at level of 32 local authority areas;
• Designated local commander and production of annual local policing plan;
• ‘Policing principles’ provide normative vision;
• Replacement of local tripartite governance;
Netherlands
• Legal requirement for one community officers for every 5000 inhabitants;
• Retention of ‘the local triangle’ of local mayor, public prosecutor and police commander.
• (*based on research with Jan Terpstra)
Why? Making sense of policy change
• Key elements….• Institutions;• Socio-economic
change;• Choices;• Networks and
coalitions;• Ideas;
• Key theories….• Punctuated Equilibrium
Model;• Policy Advocacy
Coalition Framework• Policy Streams and
Windows
• Policy streams - combine ‘problems’, ‘policies’ and ‘politics’;
• Windows of opportunity – linked to crises;
• ‘Policy entrepreneurs’ – invest time, energy and reputation in new policies.
• Agendas, Alternatives and Public Policies(Kingdon, 2003)
Framing the problem: agenda setting processes*
Scotland
• Global threats from organised crime and terrorism;
• Concern at local fragmentation of police resources;
• Public spending crisis;• Consideration of
alternatives (8, 3 or 1?)
Netherlands
• Global threats from organised crime and terrorism;
• Concern at local fragmentation of police resources;
• ICT crisis• Decentralization no
longer seen as positive.• (*based on research with Jan Terpstra)
‘Windows of opportunity’*: linking ‘problems’, ‘policies’ ,‘politics’ and ‘policy entrepreneurs’
Scotland
• New (majority SNP) Government;
• Policing and business case for a national force;
• Public support from Chief Constable of largest force.
• Presence of ‘policy entrepreneurs’ within government & the police service
Netherlands
• New Government;• Reconfiguration of
political authority over policing ;
• Continuing ICT concerns• Presence of ‘policy
entrepreneurs’ within government & the police service
• (*based on research with Jan Terpstra)
UK level: different and diverging trajectories of police reform
England & Wales Scotland
Political logic of change
Challenging public sector bureaucracies
Economic efficiency and ‘state building’
Accountability Electoral/democratic
Bureaucratic/technocratic
Distribution of power Towards localism Towards centralism
Police Mission Crime-fighting Community well-being
Policy influence United States Northern Europe
And finally some data:Public perceptions and knowledge of policing
arrangements in Scotland
2012 2013
2014
% %
%
There is a single national police force 6 49 58
There are 8 separate regional police forces 46 13 10
There are 32 local police forces 7 3 2
Don't know/not sure 42 35 30
(Refusal) * * *
Sample size 1,229 1,497 1,501
A national force and confidence in local policing
2012 2013 2014
% % %
Much more confident 3 3 2
A little more confident 7 9 7
Will make no difference 44 52 49
A little less confident 26 22 24
Much less confident 16 11 14
(Don't know) 4 3 3
(Refusal) * - *
Sample size 1,229 1,497 1,501
How are the police doing in your local area?
2012 2013 2014
% % %
Very good job 7 8 6
Good job 61 60 62
Neither good nor bad job 22 23 24
Bad job 6 6 4
Very bad job 1 2 1
(Don't know) 3 2 3
(Refusal) * - -
Sample size 1,229 1,497 1,501