Wind Energy UpdateWind Energy Update

Larry Flowers Larry Flowers National Wind Technology Center, NRELNational Wind Technology Center, NREL

Maine Maine -- October, 2009October, 2009

*Preliminary data

Installed Wind Capacities (‘99 – ‘09)

Four Years of Strong Growth: 2008: 8,558 MW Added; $16 billion Investment

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Annual US Capacity (left scale) Cumulative US Capacity (right scale)

2008 Wind Market Report; LBL

Geographic Spread of Wind ProjectsGeographic Spread of Wind Projectsin the United States Is Reasonably Broadin the United States Is Reasonably Broad

Texas Easily Led Other StatesTexas Easily Led Other Statesin Both Annual and Cumulative Capacityin Both Annual and Cumulative Capacity

• 13 states had >500 MW of wind capacity at the end of 2008 (7 had >1000 MW, 3 had >2500 MW)

• 2 states (IA and MN) have in-state wind generation that exceeds 10% of total in-state generation (6 other states exceed 5%)

Annual Capacity (2008, MW)

Cumulative Capacity (end of 2008, MW)

Estimated Percentage of In-State Generation

Texas 2,671 Texas 7,118 Iowa 13.3%Iowa 1,600 Iowa 2,791 Minnesota 10.4%Minnesota 456 California 2,517 South Dakota 8.8%Kansas 450 Minnesota 1,753 North Dakota 7.1%New York 407 Washington 1,447 Kansas 6.7%Wyoming 388 Colorado 1,068 Colorado 6.6%North Dakota 370 Oregon 1,067 Oregon 5.4%Wisconsin 342 Illinois 915 Texas 5.3%Washington 284 New York 832 New Mexico 4.5%West Virginia 264 Oklahoma 831 Wyoming 4.1%Illinois 216 Kansas 815 Washington 3.9%Oregon 185 North Dakota 714 Oklahoma 3.7%Oklahoma 142 Wyoming 676 Montana 3.4%Indiana 131 New Mexico 497 California 3.1%Michigan 127 Wisconsin 395 Hawaii 2.2%Montana 125 Pennsylvania 361 Idaho 1.6%Missouri 106 West Virginia 330 New York 1.4%South Dakota 89 Montana 272 Illinois 1.4%California 89 South Dakota 187 Wisconsin 1.3%Pennsylvania 67 Missouri 163 West Virginia 0.9%Rest of U.S. 52 Rest of U.S. 622 Rest of U.S. 0.2%TOTAL 8,558 TOTAL 25,369 TOTAL 1.8%Source: AWEA project database, EIA, Berkeley Lab estimates

Wind Now >20% of Some UtilitiesWind Now >20% of Some Utilities’’ SalesSales

See full report for the many assumptions used to generate the data in this table

Total Wind Capacity (end of 2008, MW)

Estimated Percentage of Retail Sales (for utilities with > 100 MW of wind)

Xcel Energy 2,906 Minnkota Power Cooperative 22.6%MidAmerican Energy 2,363 Empire District Electric Company 20.7%Southern California Edison 1,137 Otter Tail Power 14.9%Pacific Gas & Electric 981 Southern Minn. Muni. Power Authority 13.0%Luminant 913 Austin Energy 11.7%City Public Service of San Antonio 502 Xcel Energy 10.7%American Electric Power 468 MSR Public Power Agency 9.3%Alliant Energy 446 Great River Energy 9.1%Austin Energy 439 City Public Service of San Antonio 8.2%Puget Sound Energy 435 MidAmerican Energy 8.1%Exelon Energy 351 Public Service New Mexico 6.2%Great River Energy 319 Luminant 5.6%Empire District Electric Company 255 Alliant Energy 5.4%First Energy 244 Puget Sound Energy 5.3%San Diego Gas & Electric 239 Seattle City Light 5.3%Portland General Electric 225 Northwestern Energy 5.0%Public Service New Mexico 204 Minnesota Power 4.6%MSR Public Power Agency 200 Aquila 3.9%Reliant Energy 199 Portland General Electric 3.3%Minnkota Power Cooperative 193 Southern California Edison 3.1%Source: AWEA, EIA, Berkeley Lab estimates

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TOTA

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Approximate Wind Penetration, end of 2008

Approximate Wind Penetration, end of 2007

Approximate Wind Penetration, end of 2006

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nU.S Lagging Other Countries in WindU.S Lagging Other Countries in Wind

As a Percentage of Electricity ConsumptionAs a Percentage of Electricity Consumption

Note: Figure only includes the 20 countries with the most installed wind capacity at the end of 2008

Wind Is a Major Source of New GenerationWind Is a Major Source of New GenerationCapacity Additions: Wind Contributed 42% Capacity Additions: Wind Contributed 42%

of New Additions in the US in 2008of New Additions in the US in 2008

• Wind was the 2nd-largest resource added for the 4th-straight year

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(GW

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Other non-renewable

Coal

Gas (non-CCGT)

Gas (CCGT)

Other renewable

Wind0% wind

42% wind

35% wind18% wind

12% wind

2% wind

3% wind

1% wind

4% wind

Nearly 300 GW of Wind inNearly 300 GW of Wind inTransmission Interconnection QueuesTransmission Interconnection Queues

• MISO (64 GW), ERCOT (52 GW), SPP (48), and PJM (43 GW) account for >70% of total wind in queues

• Not all of this capacity will be built….

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Entered Queue in 2008 Total in Queue at end of 2008

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Twice as much wind as next-largest resource (natural gas) in queues

Drivers for Wind PowerDrivers for Wind Power

• Declining Wind Costs• Fuel Price Uncertainty• Federal and State

Policies• Economic Development• Environment/Water• Public Support• Green Power• Energy Security• Carbon Risk

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/kW

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Individual Project Cost (283 online projects totaling 18,641 MW) Capacity-Weighted Average Project Cost Polynomial Trend Line

Installed Project Costs Rose Substantially,Installed Project Costs Rose Substantially,After a Long Period of DeclineAfter a Long Period of Decline

Sample of 3,600 MW of projects proposed for construction in 2009 (not shown in graphic) are ~$205/kW higher still (averaging ~$2,120/kW)

Increase of ~$700/kW

As a Result of Foregoing Trends,Wind Prices Have Been Rising Since 2002-03…

• Wind power prices bottomed out with projects built in 2002-03• Projects built in 2008 are ~$15-20/MWh higher on average

2008 Wind Market Report; LBL

Wind Has Been Competitive withWind Has Been Competitive withWholesale Power Prices in Recent YearsWholesale Power Prices in Recent Years

• Wholesale price range reflects flat block of power across 23 pricing nodes• Wind power prices include sample of projects built from 1998-2008

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49 projects 62 projects 80 projects 98 projects 117 projects 145 projects

2,268 MW 3,069 MW 4,083 MW 5,165 MW 7,654 MW 9,873 MW

2008

$/M

Wh

Nationwide Wholesale Power Price Range (for a flat block of power)

Cumulative Capacity-Weighted Average Wind Power Price (with 25% and 75% quartiles)

Wind project sample includes projects built from 1998-2008

Even Among MoreEven Among More--Recent Projects, WindRecent Projects, WindWas Competitive in Most Regions in 2008Was Competitive in Most Regions in 2008

Note: Within a region there are a range of wholesale power prices because multiple wholesale price hubs exist in each area (see earlier map)

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Texas Heartland Mountain Northwest Great Lakes California East New England Total US

2 projects 28 projects 10 projects 5 projects 6 projects 3 projects 4 projects 2 projects 60 projects

241 MW 2,133 MW 1,115 MW 831 MW 713 MW 233 MW 170 MW 29 MW 5,465 MW

Average 2008 Wholesale Power Price Range (by region) 2008 Capacity-Weighted Average Wind Power Price (by region) Individual Project 2008 Wind Power Price (by region)

Wind project sample includes projects built from 2006-2008

2008

$/M

Wh

Comparative Generation Costs

Source: LBL

Result: The NearResult: The Near--Term Economics of Wind Term Economics of Wind Has Become Somewhat Less AttractiveHas Become Somewhat Less Attractive

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1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006 2007 2008624 MW 805 MW 1,648 MW 1,331 MW 757 MW 2,938 MW 1,769 MW

Capacity-Weighted Average 2008 Wind Power Price (by project vintage) Individual Project 2008 Wind Power Price (by project vintage)

2008

Pow

er P

rice

(200

8 $/

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h)

Note: Wind prices include the value of the PTC

2008 2009 Wholesale Price Range1,769 MW

Soaring Demand Spurs Expansion of U.S. Wind Turbine Manufacturing

But 2009 Is Expected To Be a Slow(er)But 2009 Is Expected To Be a Slow(er)Year for the US Wind SectorYear for the US Wind Sector

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2008 Wind Power Capacity Additions

COCO22 prices significantly prices significantly increase the cost of coalincrease the cost of coal

Levelized Cost of Electricity (2010) vs. CO2 Price

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Carbon Price ($/ton CO2)

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Coal PCCoal IGCCCoal IGCC w/CCSGas CCNuclearWind Class 6Wind Class 4Wind Offshore Class 6

Economic Development OpportunitiesEconomic Development Opportunities

• Land Lease Payments: 3-5% of gross revenue $3000-4000/MW/year

• Local property tax revenue: 100 MW often brings in on the order of $500K-$1 million/yr

• 80-100 jobs/ 100 MW during construction• 6-8 permanent O&M jobs per 100 MW• Local construction and service industry:

Foundations, roads-- often done locally• Investment as Equity Owners: production

tax credit, accelerated depreciation, project revenues

• Manufacturing and Assembly plants expanding in U.S.-- single most significant economic development opportunity

Maple Ridge I Wind Farm Maple Ridge I Wind Farm

• 231 MW (1.65-MW turbines)• Landowner payments: $1.65

million/year, $49.5 million over 30-year period

• 300 workers during peak construction (60% local)

• 20 O&M positions• Total annual tax payments: $8

million/year; $240 million over 30 years

• Located in Lewis County, NY• Jointly owned by Iberdrola &

Horizon Wind Energy• On-line in 2006

Mount Storm Wind Farm Phase 1Mount Storm Wind Farm Phase 1

• 164 MW (2-MW turbines)• Landowner payments:

$700,000 annually; $17.5 million over 25 years

• ~ 300 workers during peak construction

• Total annual tax payments: $584,000/year; $14,600,000 over 25 years

• Schools will receive a separate payment of $68,000/year; $1.7 million over 25 years

• Located in Grant County, WV• Jointly-owned by Dominion

Energy and Shell Wind Energy • On-line in 2008

Locust Ridge Wind Farm Phase ILocust Ridge Wind Farm Phase I

• 26 MW (2-MW turbines)• Landowner payments: $9,000 -

$12,000/year/turbine• 85 – 90 workers during peak

construction• 3 O&M positions• Total annual payments:

$18,000/year including taxes; $540,000 over 30 years

• Located in Schuylkill County, PA• Owned by Iberdrola • On-line in 2006

25

On‐site & Project Development Labor

Construction

Management and support

Earth moving, cement pouringTruck drivers, crane operators

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Off‐site and supply chain jobs, services, materials

Steel mill jobs, parts, servicesPhotos: E.C.Levy, Inc, Detroit, MI

Financing, banking, accountingEquipment manufacturing and sales

Property taxes

UtilitiesBlade and tower manufacturers

27

Induced jobs, services, materialsMoney spent on local area goods and services from increased 

revenue: sandwich shops, child care, grocery stores, clothing, other retail, public transit, new cars, restaurants, medical services

28

Landowner Revenue:Landowner Revenue:

Project Development & Project Development & Onsite Labor ImpactsOnsite Labor Impacts

Local Revenue, Local Revenue, Turbine, & Supply Turbine, & Supply Chain ImpactsChain Impacts

Induced ImpactsInduced Impacts

Local Property Taxes:Local Property Taxes:

Construction Phase:Construction Phase:

Operational Phase:Operational Phase:

Construction Phase:Construction Phase: Construction Phase:Construction Phase:

Operational Phase:Operational Phase: Operational Phase:Operational Phase:

Jobs and Economic Impacts from the JEDI Model

Construction Phase = 1-2 yearsOperational Phase = 20+ years

JEDI Model Version W1.09.03e

Total economic benefit:New local jobs during construction:

New local long-term jobs:

1,000 MW of New Wind Power in Virginia

•• 71 new jobs71 new jobs

•• $9.9 million/year$9.9 million/year

•• 500 new jobs500 new jobs

•• 51 new jobs51 new jobs

•• $3 million/year$3 million/year•• 3,118 new jobs3,118 new jobs •• 1,081 new jobs1,081 new jobs

•• 84 new jobs84 new jobs•• $39.8 million to local economies$39.8 million to local economies

•• $3.5 M/year to local economies$3.5 M/year to local economies

•• $20.2 million/year to local $20.2 million/year to local economieseconomies

•• $405.8 million to local $405.8 million to local economieseconomies

•• $125.4 million to local $125.4 million to local economieseconomies

•• $9.8 million/year to local $9.8 million/year to local economieseconomies

28

$1.24 billion4,699206

Renewable Portfolio Standards

State renewable portfolio standard

State renewable portfolio goal

www.dsireusa.org / August 2009

Solar water heating eligible *† Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables

Includes separate tier of non-renewable alternative resources

WA: 15% by 2020*

CA: 20% by 2010

☼ NV: 25% by 2025*

☼ AZ: 15% by 2025

☼ NM: 20% by 2020 (IOUs)10% by 2020 (co-ops)

HI: 40% by 2030

☼ Minimum solar or customer-sited requirement

TX: 5,880 MW by 2015

UT: 20% by 2025*

☼ CO: 20% by 2020 (IOUs)10% by 2020 (co-ops & large munis)*

MT: 15% by 2015

ND: 10% by 2015

SD: 10% by 2015

IA: 105 MW

MN: 25% by 2025(Xcel: 30% by 2020)

☼ MO: 15% by 2021

IL: 25% by 2025

WI: Varies by utility; 10% by 2015 goal

MI: 10% + 1,100 MW by 2015*

☼ OH: 25% by 2025†

ME: 30% by 2000New RE: 10% by 2017

☼ NH: 23.8% by 2025

☼ MA: 15% by 2020+ 1% annual increase(Class I Renewables)

RI: 16% by 2020

CT: 23% by 2020

☼ NY: 24% by 2013

☼ NJ: 22.5% by 2021

☼ PA: 18% by 2020†

☼ MD: 20% by 2022

☼ DE: 20% by 2019*

☼ DC: 20% by 2020

VA: 15% by 2025*

☼ NC: 12.5% by 2021 (IOUs)10% by 2018 (co-ops & munis)

VT: (1) RE meets any increase in retail sales by 2012;

(2) 20% RE & CHP by 2017

29 states & DChave an RPS

5 states have goals

KS: 20% by 2020

☼ OR: 25% by 2025 (large utilities)*5% - 10% by 2025 (smaller utilities)

Public Benefits Funds for RenewablesPublic Benefits Funds for Renewables

State PBF supported by voluntary contributions

www.dsireusa.org / May 2009 (estimated funding)

(NOTE: Slides 2-9 explain the methodology for calculating funding estimates.)

* Fund does not have a specified expiration date

** The Oregon Energy Trust is scheduled to expire in 2025

RI: $2.2M in 2009$38M from 1997-2017*

MA: $25M in FY2009$524M from 1998-2017*

NJ: $78.3M in FY2009$647M from 2001-2012

DE: $3.4M in 2009$48M from 1999-2017*

CT: $28M in FY2009$444M from 2000-2017*

VT: $5.2M in FY2009$33M from 2004-2011

PA: $950,000 in 2009$63M from 1999-2010

IL: $3.3M in FY2009$97M from 1998-2015

NY: $15.7M in FY2009$114M from 1999-2011

WI: $7.9M in 2009$90M from 2001-2017*

MN: $19.5M in 2009$327M from 1999-2017*

MT: $750,000 in 2009$14M from 1999-2017*

OH: $3.2M in 2009$63M from 2001-2010

MI: $6.7M in FY2009$27M from 2001-2017*

ME: 2009 funding TBD$580,300 from 2002-2009

DC: $2M in FY2009$8.8M from 2004-2012

DC

OR: $13.8M in 2009 $191M from 2001-2017**

CA: $363.7M in 2009$4,566M from 1998-2016

State PBF

16 states + DChave public benefits funds

($7.3 billion by 2017)

ME has a voluntary public benefits

fund

Policy Is Now More Favorable to WindPolicy Is Now More Favorable to WindThan At Any Other Time in the Past DecadeThan At Any Other Time in the Past Decade

• ARRA 2009 established a number of federal policies to support wind• Federal PTC currently in place through 2012 (longest extension in history)• Wind projects can elect a 30% ITC or a 30% cash grant in lieu of the PTC• Subsidized financing double-dipping penalty removed for ITC / cash grant• New allocations of Clean Renewable Energy Bonds• Expansion and enhancement of Federal loan guarantee program• Increased R&D funding• Four new state RPS policies (MI, MO, OH, KS), and many revisions to

existing state RPS policies (total is now 29 states plus Washington, D.C.)• State renewable funds, tax incentives, utility planning, green power, and

growing interest in carbon regulation all also played a role in 2008• Efforts to pass an RPS and carbon regulation at the Federal level continue

• Minnesota farmer cooperative (Minwind)

• FLIP structure

• Farmer-owned small wind

• Farmer-owned commercial-scale

Local Ownership ModelsLocal Ownership Models

Environmental BenefitsEnvironmental Benefits

• No SOx or NOx • No particulates• No mercury• No CO2• No water

Key Issues for Wind Power Key Issues for Wind Power

• Financial markets • Policy Uncertainty• Supply chain/workforce• Siting and Permitting: avian,

noise, visual, federal land * Transmission: FERC rules,

tariffs, new lines, PMA’s

• Operational impacts: variability, ancillary services, forecasting, cost allocation

• Accounting for non-monetary value: green power, no fuel price risk, reduced emissions and water use

Maine Wind Resources

13,647 MW5,545 MW

“The future ain’t what it used to be.”

- Yogi Berra

- 200 400 600 800 1,0000

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Quantity Available, GW

Leve

lized

Cos

t of E

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/MW

h

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Class 4

Class 7

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Offshore

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Class 4

Class 7

Class 5

Class 3

10% Available 10% Available TransmissionTransmission

2010 Costs w/ PTC, $1,600/MW-mile, w/o Integration costs

The black open square in the center of a state representsthe land area needed for a single wind farm to produce theprojected installed capacity in that state. The brown squarerepresents the actual land area that would be dedicatedto the wind turbines (2% of the black open square).

Wind CapacityTotal Installed (2030)

(GW)0.0 - 0.1

0.1 - 1

1 - 5

5 - 10

> 10

Includes offshore wind.

46 States Would Have Substantial Wind Development by 2030

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Wind O&M Costs

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Fuel CostsConventional O&M CostsConventional Capital Costs

2% investmentdifference between

20% Wind and No New Wind

Incremental investment cost of 20% Wind Scenario

Economic Costs of 20% Wind Scenario

20% Wind Scenario Impact on Generation Mix in 2030

• Reduces electric utility natural gas consumption by 50%

• Reduces total natural gas consumption by 11%

• Natural gas consumer benefits: $86-214 billion*

• Reduces electric utility coal consumption by 18%

• Avoids construction of 80 GW of new coal power plants

U.S. electrical energy mix

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No New Wind 20% Wind

Natural GasCoalNuclear

HydroWind

Source *: Hand et al., 2008

41

Landowner Revenue:

Project Development & Onsite Labor Impacts

Local Revenue, Turbine, & Supply Chain Impacts

Induced Impacts

Local Property Taxes:

Construction Phase:

Operational Phase:

Construction Phase: Construction Phase:

Operational Phase: Operational Phase:

National (U.S.) Economic Impacts

Construction Phase = 1-2 yearsOperational Phase = 20+ years

JEDI Model Version W1.09.03e

Total economic benefit:New local jobs during construction:

New local long-term jobs:

Cumulative Impacts from 2007-2030

• 1.3 M FTE jobs

• $1,877 million

• 834,072 FTE jobs

• 366,441 FTE jobs

• $783 million• 2.63 M FTE jobs • 2.75 M FTE jobs

• 1.64 M FTE jobs• $65 billion to the US economy

• $17 B to the US economy

• $207 billion to the US economy

• $526 billion to the US economy

• $353 billion to the US economy

• $192 billion to the US economy

41

$1.36 trillion6.2 M FTE3.3 M FTE

From the 20% Scenario – 300 GW new Onshore and Offshore Development

CO2 Emissions from the Electricity SectorCO2 Emissions from the Electricity Sector

02006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030

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No New Wind Scenario CO2 emissions 20% Wind Scenario CO2 emissionsUSCAP path to 80% below today’s levels by 2050

CO

2E

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s in

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tor

(mill

ion

met

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ns)

02006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030

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2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

No New Wind Scenario CO2 emissions 20% Wind Scenario CO2 emissionsUSCAP path to 80% below today’s levels by 2050

02006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030

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2,500

3,000

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No New Wind Scenario CO2 emissions 20% Wind Scenario CO2 emissionsUSCAP path to 80% below today’s levels by 2050

CO

2E

mis

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s in

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(mill

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met

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Cumulative Water Savings from 20% Scenario

Reduces water consumption of 4 trillion gallons through 2030 (represents a reduction in electric sector water consumption by

17% in 2030)

Incremental direct cost to society $43 billionReductions in emissions of greenhouse gasses and other atmospheric pollutants

825 M tons (2030)$98 billion

Reductions in water consumption 8% total electric17% in 2030

Jobs created and other economic benefits

140,000 direct$450 billion total

Reductions in natural gas use and price pressure

11%$150 billion

Net Benefits: $205B + Water savings

Results: Costs & Benefits

U.S. Remains on Early Track To Meet 20%U.S. Remains on Early Track To Meet 20%of Nationof Nation’’s Electricity with Wind by 2030 s Electricity with Wind by 2030

But ramping up to ~16 GW/year and maintaining that pace for a decade is an enormous challenge, requiring proactive policy, substantial transmission expansion, mitigation of output variability, and eased siting and permitting processes

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Deployment Path in 20% Wind Report (annual)

Actual Wind Installations (annual)Deployment Path in 20% Wind Report (cumulative)

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Carpe Ventem

www.windpoweringamerica.gov

Red Sox NightmareRed Sox Nightmare

Rockies clinch playoff spot with easy Rockies clinch playoff spot with easy 99--2 win over Brewers2 win over Brewers