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Will Lent, Research & Policy Analyst, Solar Energy Industries Association Cory Honeyman, Solar Analyst, GTM Research
December 17, 2013
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December 17, 2013 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 2
About SEIA • Founded in 1974
• U.S. National Trade Association for Solar Energy • 1,000 member companies from around the world • Members from across 50 states • Largest companies in the world as well as small
installers • Our Mission: Build a strong solar industry to power
America
• Our Goal: 10 gigawatts (GW) of annual installed solar capacity in the U.S. by 2015
December 17, 2013 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 3
Solar in America: Strong and Getting Stronger • 119,000 American workers in solar – more than double the
number in 2009 – at 6,100 companies across the country
• The value of U.S. solar installations was $11.5 billion in 2012, up from just $810 million in 2006.
• Q3 2013 was the second largest first quarter on record. PV market installed 930 MW, growing 35% over last quarter
• Over 10,250 MW of cumulative installed solar electric capacity, enough to power 1.7 million average American homes
December 17, 2013 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 4
U.S. Solar Business Locations
December 17, 2013 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 5
Solar Market Insight: Q3 2013 • Detailed data on markets in
top 28 states plus DC available in full report.
• Free executive summary provides national aggregate data on installations, pricing, manufacturing and demand forecasts.
• Full report for sale (50% discount to SEIA members) includes quarterly forecasts as well as detailed market segment and state data.
December 17, 2013 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 6
SEIA/GTM Research Partnership • Industry need for up-to-date and reliable market data
– Market reports issued every quarter
• Member discount: benefit for SEIA members – Reliable market intelligence
– Member discount makes SMI the most affordable market research available
• Data to support SEIA’s advocacy mission • SEIA-GTM conferences • Email questions to [email protected] or
December 17, 2013 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 7
930 MW Installed in Q3 2013- Second Largest Quarter in History
December 17, 2013 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 8
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Inst
alle
d C
apaci
ty (M
W)
New U.S. PV Installations
Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Projected
December 17, 2013 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 9
Record Quarter for the Residential Market
186 MW 205 MW
539 MW
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Residential Commercial Utility
Inst
alle
d C
apaci
ty (
MW
)
PV Installations by Market Segment
Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012
Over 395,000 PV Systems Operating in the US
December 17, 2013 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 10
14,676
17,795
22,031
19,997
23,658
26,278
29,289 29,763
33,028
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013
Num
ber
of
Inst
alla
tions
Res Commercial Utility
Price Declines Driving Growth
December 17, 2013 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 11
$-
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Ave
rage
Syst
em P
rice
($
/W)
Inst
alle
d C
apaci
ty (M
W)
Installations Projected Average System Price
Average Residential System Price - $4.72/W
December 17, 2013 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 12
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
Avg
. Sy
stem
Pri
ce (
$/W
)
Average Residential System Price by State- Q3 2013
Average Commercial System Price - $3.96/W
December 17, 2013 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 13
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
Avg
. Sy
stem
Pri
ce (
$/W
)
Average Commercial System Price by State- Q3 2013
Q3 2013 State Performance
December 17, 2013 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 14
California 1,253 MW
Arizona 298 MW
New Jersey 172 MW
North Carolina 167 MW
Massachusetts115 MW
Hawaii 98 MW
Rest of the U.S. 338
MW
U.S. PV Installations by State – Q1-Q3 2013
69 MW
169 MW
455 MW
10. New York
9. Pennsylvania
8. Colorado
7. Hawaii
6. New Jersey
5. Nevada
4. Massachusetts
3. North Carolina
2. Arizona
1. California
State Rankings by Q3 PV Installed Capacity Residential Commercial Utility
DG Penetration Levels in Leading Solar States
December 17, 2013 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 15
0.43% 0.47%
99.1%
AZ 0.52% 0.70%
98.78%
CA 2.10% 1.58%
96.32%
HI
0.25% 1.32%
98.44%
NJ 0.11% 0.53%
99.4%
MA Res Solar as % of Retail Sales
Non-Res Solar as % of RetailSales
Non DG Solar generation as %of Retial Sales
Note: Resi and non-resi includes both onsite consumption and exported energy. Data from: 2011 EIA retail sales; Q3 13 Solar Market Insight Report solar deployment data.
0.25% 0.35%
99.4%
CO
What to Expect For the YE 2013
• 4,300 MW of PV will come online in 2013
• Residential market to show the most significant growth
• 2013 will be a record year for CSP as 800 MW are expected to be commissioned
• Together, new solar electric capacity added in 2013 will generate enough clean energy to power over 850,000 homes
December 17, 2013 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 16
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2012 2013
Inst
alle
d C
apaci
ty (M
W)
2012 vs. 2013
Residential Non-Residential Utility
-1%
U.S. Solar Market Forecast- PV Market to Grow by 27% in 2013
December 17, 2013 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 17
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E
Inst
alle
d C
apaci
ty (M
W)
WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM
U.S. PV Installations by Market Segment
18
WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM
Market Segment Trends, Q3 2012 – Q3 2013
19
• The residential market resumed its steady incremental growth, up 12% over Q2 2013
• Commercial installations continued
to dip, down 5% quarter-over-quarter; CA, AZ, and MA experienced significant growth amidst downturns across all other major markets
• The utility market added 539 MW,
driving 58% of new capacity installed across all sectors
WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM
Residential Market: Growth Returns
20
The residential market rebounded, but has grown increasingly dependent on the health of California’s market • CA (98.8 MW): Accounted for a
record high 53% of the residential market in Q3 2013
• AZ (16.6 MW): Growth spurred by net metering uncertainty and final wave of upfront rebates at $0.10/W
• Market Downturns: CO and HI have shrunk each quarter in 2013 by 15% to 20%
WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM
California: Doubling Down without CSI Incentives
21
The residential solar market has seen unprecedented growth as installers forgo the CSI rebate at higher levels:
• Residential rebates are exhausted in
PG&E territory, while SCE and SDG&E’s CSI incentives are in the final step
• “Retail rate parity” with only 30% ITC, net metering, and accelerated depreciation
• More non-CSI funded installations (50 MW) came online in Q3 2013 than in the next top 4 state markets combined
WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM
Third-Party Financing Continues to Drive Installs
22
• Third-party owned (TPO) systems continue to drive new residential installations in major state markets
• AZ: #1 in TPO market share at 86% Top TPO Trends to Watch • Share of TPO in states where
residential incentives are depleted (CA and AZ)
• State incentives that target direct owned systems (MA and CO)
• Growing popularity of alternative debt products (PACE and residential solar loans)
WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM
Non-Residential Market: Sluggish 2013
23
Market growth in AZ, MA, and CA outweighed by the slowdown in investment across the majority of state markets
• AZ: Lumpy development cycles plus
continued incentives for school and government projects
• MA: Rush to install under current SREC I program and private/public net metering caps
• HI: New interconnection rules slow growth for systems > 10 kW
• NJ: SREC oversupply froze development timelines through 1H 2013
WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM
U.S. Utility Market: Top 10 Q3 Projects Completed
24
Project Name Developer Capacity (MWdc) State Power Offtaker
Arlington Valley Solar Energy II - Phase II LS Power 124 AZ San Diego Gas &
Electric
Catalina Solar - Phase II EDF Renewable Energy 82 CA San Diego Gas &
Electric Imperial Solar Energy Center South - Phase II
Tenaska Solar Ventures 81 CA San Diego Gas &
Electric Centinela Solar Energy Facility - Phase I LS Power 38 CA San Diego Gas &
Electric Spectrum Solar SunEdison 37 NV NV Energy SPS Corcoran GCL Solar Energy 24 CA Pacific Gas & Electric PG&E UOG Program – Guernsey Pacific Gas & Electric 23 CA Pacific Gas & Electric
Antelope Solar Project - SCE TUUSSO Energy 23 CA Southern California
Edison
Bolton Solar Farm Strata Solar 6 NC Progress Energy Carolinas
Dement Solar Farm Strata Solar 6 NC Progress Energy Carolinas
WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM
U.S. Utility Market Pipeline
25
• 539 MW of utility scale solar installed in Q3 2013
• 52 projects became operational, ranging from 600 kW to 124 MW
• Majority of installations continue to come from mega-scale projects with PPAs signed by the California IOUs
• Rise of wholesale DG: Accounted for 30% of new utility PV installations in Q3 2013
4,205
25,064
4,318
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Operating Contracted (PPA Signed) Announced (Pre-Contract)
Capa
city (
MW
dc)
U.S. Utility PV Pipeline
In Construction
12,552
WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM
Net Metering Updates Across the US
26
Other Notable State Updates • NY: Tripled its net metering cap from 1% to 3% of 2005 peak demand • GA, LA, and ID: Net metering programs retained and extended under current format
WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM
Four Year PV Market Outlook
27
WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM
Four Year PV Market Outlook by Market Segment
28
WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM
Average Installed Prices Fall Year-Over-Year
29
WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM
U.S. Component Prices Buck the Downward Trend
30
WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM
U.S. Concentrating Solar Update
31
WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM
Thank You and Contact Info
32
Thank You & Contact Info
Justin Baca, Director of Research Will Lent, Research and Policy Analyst
Contact: [email protected]
Cory Honeyman, Solar Analyst Contact: [email protected]
For more information about purchasing the full SEIA/GTM Research U.S. Solar Market Insight Q3 2013™ report, please visit www.gtmresearch.com/ussmi or email Justin Freedman ([email protected])
QUESTIONS?
December 17, 2013 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 33
