Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMSJ. Kaiser IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005Slide 1 Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMS Johannes Kaiser

Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMS J. Kaiser IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005 Slide 1

Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMS

Johannes Kaiser

Tony Hollingsworth, Martin Schultz


Overview of Presentation

• Motivation• Wildfire emissions are a major boundary condition

for atmospheric composition modelling, thus GEMS.• GEMS is just starting.• Scientific development, collaborations, and

additional funds will be needed to do a good job.

• Contents• GEMS Overview• GEMS Requirements on Wildfire Emissions• Existing Components• GEMS Wildfire Strategy Proposal• Summary


GEMS Overview


GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space and in-situ data

Coordinator A.Hollingsworth (ECMWF)

Projects Leadership

Greenhouse Gases P.Rayner (F)

Reactive Gases G.Brasseur (D)

Aerosol O.Boucher (UK)

Regional Air Quality V-H.Peuch (F)

Validation H.Eskes (NL)

Global Production System A.Simmons (ECMWF),

GMES Integrated Project, 12.5MEuro, 30 Institutes, 14 Countrieswww.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS


Objectives of GEMS

• Global operational system for monitoring & forecasting composition ready by 2009

• Combine remotely sensed and in-situ data • GREENHOUSE GASES (initially including CO2, and progressively

adding CH4, N2O, plus SF6 and Radon to check advection accuracy),

• REACTIVE GASES (initially including O3, NO2, SO2, CO, HCHO, and gradually widening the suite of species),

• AEROSOLS (initially a 15-parameter representation, later ~ 30)

• Support operational Regional Air-Quality Forecasts

• Global Retrospective Analyses 2000-2007

• Variational Inversion Techniques to estimate sources & sinks of CO2 and other trace constituents


ReactiveGases

Greenhouse

Gases

AerosolRegional

Air Quality

GEMS organisation in 6 sub-projects

Validation

greenhousegases

reactivegases

regional air qualityaerosols


Schedule of GEMS Work at Central Site

Year 1May 2005+12 mo

• Build and validate 3 separate assimilation systems for Greenhouse gases, Reactive gases, Aerosol. • Acquire data; build web-site


• Produce 3 different reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol• Make reanalyses available for validation by all partners• Provide feedback to data providers

Year 2-2.5May 2007 + 6 mo

• Merge the 3 assimilation systems into a unified system; • Upgrade the models and algorithms based on experience

Year 2.5-3.5Nov 2007+ 12 mo

• Produce unified reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol• Build operational system, & interfaces to partners

Year 3.5 - 4 Nov 2008+ 6 mo

• Final pre-operational trials • Documentation & Scientific papers


Requirements on Wildfires


Wildfire Emission Description

• Wildfires constitute a major boundary condition for atmospheric composition modelling.

• GEMS requirements• Amount emitted: aerosol, trace gases

FRE / AFL / emission factors / burnt area / hot spot

• Location, Time burnt area / hot spot• Injection height meteo / FRE

• Cross-cutting• Global aerosol and trace gases, regional air quality:

consistency, work reuse! • Forestry, vegetation monitoring:

collaboration with geoland and others!


Schedule of GEMS Wildfire Requirements


• Produce 3 different reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol• global emissions for 2003 of correct order of magnitude

Year 2.5-3.5Nov 2007+ 12 mo

• Produce unified reanalyses for trace gases and aerosol• high-resolution (temporal & spatial) global fire products for 2000–2007

Year 3.5 - 4 Nov 2008+ 6 mo

• Final pre-operational trials • high-resolution (t&s) global fire products in NRT


Existing Components

Models, observations


Existing Emission Models

• Missoula Fire Sciences Lab, USDA Forest Service?


Use of Related Observations in GEMS

• FRE amount, time, loc. Yes Yes no, to be drived


Strategy Proposal


GEMS Baseline Approach (AER)

• GWEM for amount [Hoelzemann et al. 2004]

• BUOYANT for injection height [Nikmo et al. 1999]


Extended Treatment of Wildfire in GEMS


• Produce 3 different reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol• global emissions for 2003 of correct order of magnitude• climatology: RETRO, AEROCOMM-B

Year 2.5-3.5Nov 2007+ 12 mo

• Produce unified reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol• high-resolution (t&s) global fire products for 2000–2007• burnt area from MODIS, GLOBCARBON…

Year 3.5 - 4 Nov 2008+ 6 mo

• Final pre-operational trials • high-resolution (t&s) global fire products in NRT• hot spots and/or FRE from MODIS, …

Year 5 - 2009 -

• operational phase • high-resolution global (t&s) fire products in NRT• hot spots and/or FRE from MODIS, …• global WF_ABBA from GEO satellites

Part

ial

fun

di

ng


geoland, …

tGEMS

Single Evolving Fire Assimilation System (FAS)

• Single, consistent processing for all GEMS subprojects• Evolution from climatology to existing products to fire

assimilation hidden behind constant interface

satellitefire product

satelliteradiance

land coverclimatology

fireclimatology

land coverproduct

fireproduct

FireAssimilation

System

global fireemissions

greenhousegases

reactivegases

aerosols

regionalair quality


Summary

• GEMS combines satellite and in-situ observations in a operational global data assimilation / forecast system.

• GEMS will provide re-analyses and forecasts of the atmospheric composition, i.e. aerosols and trace gases.

• The emission by wildfires of is one of several important cross-cutting issues in GEMS.

• The emission by wildfires is ultimately needed globally in near-real time as well as with a time lag.

• No suitable wildfire emission product is available.

• A phased development strategy for a global fire assimilation system and wildfire emission modelling has been proposed.

• Feedback through inverse modelling is ultimately expected.• The strategy is currently being discussed and we are grateful

for comments, suggestions, collaborations, and contributions.


More Info

• www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS• www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/HALO• [email protected]

Documents

Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMSJ. Kaiser IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005Slide 1 Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMS Johannes Kaiser