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EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 1
Global Fire Emission Modelling for Atmospheric Composition and Land Cover
Monitoring
Johannes W. Kaiser, S. Serrar, R.J. Engelen, J.-J. Morcrette, A. Hollingsworth, J.-M. Gregoire, G.R. van der Werf
EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 2
Outline
Biomass Burning in Global Environmental Monitoring
Biomass Burning in Atmospheric Composition Monitoring: The Global GEMS Systems
Summary
EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 3
Biomass Burning in Global Environmental Monitoring
EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 4
Significance for Atmospheric Composition:2 Preliminary Examples
CO2mixing ratio
analysisfrom poster
1MO2P-0072
aerosoloptical depth analysisfrom poster1MO2P-0082
SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES
EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 5
Significance for Land Monitoring
Wildfires are an important sink mechanism for the terrestrial carbon pools in the global carbon cycle. wildfire emissions, typical global values: 1.5 – 4 Gt C / year fossil fuel emissions of Europe + North America: 3 Gt C / year
Wildfire behaviour characterises land cover types with repeated fire events. typical fire repeat period typical fire intensity typical fire seasonality …
Wildfires can change the land cover type reversibly tropical deforestation …
EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 6
A Global Fire Assimilation System should serve atmosphere and land monitoring.
atmosphere monitoring
Global Fire Assimilation System
land monitoring
pyro-changes incarbon stocks
available fuel load
injection heights
fire emissionsland cover type
fire observations
land covercharacterisation
land cover change
[Kaiser et al. 2006]
EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 7
Biomass Burning in Atmospheric Composition Monitoring:
The Global GEMS Systems
EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 8
Global Fire Activities in GEMS @ ECMWF
fire emission from inventory GFEDv2 [van der Werf et al., ACP 2006]
hot spot fire observations from satellite-borne MODIS available fuel load from CASA vegetation model
no near-real time availability time resolution: 8 days / 1 month
Can be used as dummy for future Global Fire Assimilation System in reanalyses.
Fire Radiative Power from geostationary observations improved accuracy and time resolution no operational experience no global coverage
EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 9
Fire CO2 Emission on 20 Aug 2003 [g / m2 / day] (GFEDv2_8day, re-gridded to T159)
EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 10
CO2 Model Field with Fires @ 500hPa [ppm]
EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 11
Excess CO2 due to Fires @ 500hPa [ppm]
EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 12
without fire emissions with fire emissions
assimi-lation of
CO2 observa-
tions
free model
run
EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 13
Variability of CO2 Model: Mauna Loa
with fire emissions no fire emissions observations models corrected for bias & trend
Fire emissions modelling improves interannual variability & seasonal variability
of the modelled CO2 background.
altitude of station
[observations: public CMDL CCGG data]
EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 14
Aerosol and Reactive Gas Approach and Issues
approach consistent: emission inventory GFEDv2 with time resolution of
• 1 month (currently)
• 8 days (soon)
aerosol: (see poster 1MO2P-0082) Observations determine 1 parameter relatively well, i.e. AOT.
• But model currently distinguishes 11 aerosol types. Fire emissions help to determine the observed aerosol type.
reactive gases: emissions in CTMs, not the ECMWF model
EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 15
Summary
EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 16
SUMMARY
The global atmosphere and land monitoring systems in the European GMES initiative will need global Biomass Burning modelling in near-real time and consistent multi-year time series.
We recommend to develop a Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) to serve the GMES requirements.
The global GEMS system can use GFEDv2 as a work-around for its reanalysis products, and does so.
We see wildfire emissions influencing CO2: interannual variability, seasonal cycle, and individual episodes aerosol: episodes, monthly averages
The information from fire emission observation/modelling is complementary to the satellite observations of CO2 and aerosols.
EGU GA, Wien, April 2007 Kaiser et al., Fire, 17
MORE INFORMATION
www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/HALOwww.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
This work has been funded by the European Commission through the FP6 projects HALO, GEMS, and GEOLAND.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
