Whom do they rely on when getting old?

Old-age expectations of forced bachelors in contemporary rural China

Guo Qiuju, Xiaoyi Jin, Marcus W. Feldman

Guo Qiuju

School of Management, Xi’an Jiaotong University,

28 West Xianning Road, Xi’an, Shaanxi Province, 710049, China

E-mail: guoqiuju_xjtu@163.com

Tel: +86-29-8266-4722 Fax: +86-29-8266-8384

Jin Xiaoyi, Ph.D.& Professor

Institute for Population and Development Studies, Xi’an Jiaotong University,

28 West Xianning Road, Xi’an, Shaanxi Province, 710049, China

E-mail: xiaoyijin@mail.xjtu.edu.cn

Tel: +86-29-8266-4722 Fax: +86-29-8266-8384

Marcus W. Feldman

Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford University,

Stanford, CA 94305-2034, US

E-mail:mfeldman@stanford.edu

Session 107 Poster session on Population and policy challenges in East Asia

On 28-08-2013 at 12:00pm-13:30pm in Poster Section F Convention Hall Lobby, 3rd Floor.

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Abstract Gender imbalance and increasingly severe male marriage squeeze tend to significantly

influence traditional family security for the elderly parents in contemporary rural China since sons

and daughters-in-law are regarded as the main care-givers. Marriage status is likely to affect

individual’s expectations for old-age support. Furthermore, birth cohort and outflow for a work in

urban areas also play important roles in old-age expectations. Using data from a survey of four

towns in Yi County of Anhui Province conducted in 2008, the paper analyzes forced bachelors’

expectations for their old age in rural China. It shows that the hierarchical compensatory model has

overestimated the role of siblings: neither older unmarried men nor married men would see their

siblings as their old-age supporters. Marriage status is a significant determinant affecting

expectations of old-age support of rural men from perspectives of both birth cohort and migration

experiences. Compared with married men, the older or never-migrated forced bachelors are more

likely to rely on the governmental aid and living in geracomium for old age, which is consistent with

the hierarchical compensatory model that the formal or institutional help becomes the last resort

when the familial and non-familial sources of support are unavailable. Married men are more

independent than forced bachelors, self-support by saving money or living alone has become the

important means in old-age expectations of the married men, especially for those who are relatively

younger and ever-migrated.

[Key words] financial sources, forced bachelors, living arrangement, marriage squeeze, old-age

expectations, rural China

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INTRODUCTION

In most rural areas of contemporary China, the strict patrilineal family system makes the son

dominant position in the family continuation, for men, getting married is not just the combination of

male and female, but the premise of continuing the family lineage, promoting his family status and

supporting their aging parents (Das Gupta et al., 2003; Greenhalgh &Winckler, 2005; Davin, 1985),

which are consistent with filial piety (xiao) in the culture of Confucian (Ho, 1994; Sung, 1995). Due

to the traditional patrilocal culture, the son will still stay with their parents after married, but the

daughter joins the husband’s family, the elderly care is most provided by son (Bray, 1997). For these

very reasons sons are arguably more valuable than daughters, which resulting in strong son

preference in rural areas (Das Gupta et al., 2003; Poston, Gu, Liu, & McAaniel, 1997; Zeng et al.,

1993). Since 1982 Chinese government full instituted the strict birth control policy to decrease the

total number of population, the fertility declined sharply from 2.96 births per woman in 1981to 1.5

births in 2007 (Ebenstein & Leung, 2010). The son preference was strengthened at the low fertility

in order to have a son in a family the sex-selective abortion became common in the countryside

(Zeng et al., 1993; Chu, 2001). Thus, strong son preference and discrimination against girls have

resulted in China’s abnormally high sex ratio at birth (SRB), which keeps increasing since 1980s.

According to sixth Census in 2010, the SRB is 118.06. In the context of high SRB, the phenomenon

of missing females and male marriage squeeze is heavy in the marriage market, millions of

marriageable-age males are unable to get married every year (Skinner, 2002; Coale & Banister,

1994). In fact, even excluding the impact of gender imbalance, male marriage squeeze always exists

in the whole history of China (Goodkind, 2006). According to the fourth Census in 1990, the number

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of unmarried population was 19 million between 35 to 44 years old, of which 86% are males (The

Population Census Office of the State Council in China, 1993). In recent years, hypergamy, high

bride-price, rural females’ migrating to urban areas, age gaps between spouses and so on (Beiles,

1994; Min & Eades 2008; Fan & Huang, 1998; Meng, 2009; Davin, 2007), may lead to the

phenomenon of male marriage squeeze even if the SRB was normal. Now, under the circumstance of

unbalanced regional economic development and the large-scale rural to urban workforce migration,

the proportion of old unmarried men (so called forced bachelors, usually remaining unmarried at 28

years old and above) is higher in economy backward and impoverished rural areas, which bring

serious negative impacts and huge challenges to traditional old-age support patterns that supported

by family (Jin, Guo, Liu, & Li., 2010). The reliable social pension system in China has not

completely cover the rural residents, which makes a family still the basic unit giving old-age support.

Under the influence of filial piety, the majority of the rural elderly still rely on their children

financially (Xu &Yuan, 1997) and live with their married children (Whyte, 1973; Davis-Friedmann,

1991). But for the forced bachelors, they lost not only the opportunity to get married but also the

spouses and children who are usually the most important supporters by providing family resources

(Beggs, Haines, & Hurlbert, 1996; Litwak, 1985; Stoller & Pugliesi, 1991).

For thousands of years filial piety has been considered as virtues in Chinese social relations and has

served as a guiding principle for intergenerational relations (Ho, 1996). However, with the rapid

development of economic, urbanization, industrialization, the massive rural-urban migration and

family power transferring to younger generation in recent decades, the filial piety has been

weakened gradually (Ng, Phillips, & Lee, 2002). In addition, since 2010 China has already become

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an aging society, with the sixth Census in 2010 revealing that the proportion of elderly had risen to

13.26 percent for those aged 60 and above, nearly 80 percent of elderly live in rural areas. With the

adult children out-flowing to urban areas for work, the rural elderly left behind have to face

difficulties in old-age support without the main care-givers around, and the emerging population of

forced bachelors will make the problem even worse in rural areas. According to China’s Five

Guaranteed System (Wu Baohu, namely those childless and infirm elderly who are guaranteed food,

clothing, medicare, housing and burial expenses by the governments) and the Rural Minimum Living

Standard Guarantee System , the considerable number of poor forced bachelors will become an

important part of objects of the social security systems, which will increase not only the

government’s financial burden but also the pressure on the provisions of social security services.

Thus, the old-age expectations of forced bachelors are worthy of attention.

Despite the rising number of forced bachelors, there are a few researches focusing on the

relationship between marital status and old-age expectations, with the old-age expectations of forced

bachelors ignored for a long time. Although the previous literature do not examine the relationship

between marital status and old-age expectations, a small number of studies have found that married

people generally receive more social support than never-married peers (Barrett, 1999; Keith & Nauta

1988). The model of seeking old-age resources for never-married people has been different from that

for these normally married, because the never-married people usually with increasing risk of old age

tend to take their social networks more positively or more negatively than those normally married

ones. But some research held the point of that, functions of particular support will disappear if such

support is absence; for childless individuals, the parent-child dyad may be forfeited (Litwak, 1985).

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With the demographic effect of gender imbalance developing, male marriage squeeze will become

more serious. With rapidly growing population of forced bachelors aging, studying on forced

bachelors' expectations for their old age is both practically and academically significant. This paper

focuses on the old unmarried men who were involuntary unmarried at 28 years old and above when

the survey was conducted in the context of marriage imbalance in contemporary rural China. To

highlight the important link between marital status and old-age expectations, this paper compares

forced bachelors with married men. The following questions will be discussed in this paper: whom

do the forced bachelors expect to receive financial help from when they become old? Where do the

forced bachelors expect to live when they become old? What’s the different of old-age expectations

between the forced bachelors and married men? What does the marital status have to do with old-age

expectations? An additional goal of the study is to examine how birth cohort and migration

experiences might affect older unmarried men’s expectations for old age.

BACKGROUND

Old-age expectations and Hierarchical Compensatory Model

The prior research suggests Hierarchical Compensatory Model explains social support more

effectively (Cantor, 1979, 1981). Hierarchical Compensatory Model, developed base on the

principle of substitution (Shanas, 1979), views family members the primary source of social support

and there was an ordering rank of particular group providing support, in which one of the support is

unavailable others will be called upon in rank order (Cantor, 1979). For the married in times of need

or crisis, their spouse is the first one to turn to, and then to their children, other kin, neighbors,

friends and the last resort is formal organizations in a well-ordered hierarchical selection process.

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According to this model, spouse is the elderly’s important provider of care (Tennstedt, Crawford, &

McKinlay, 1993), for these without spouse the children are the main supporter (Penning, 1990), and

if even the family support is also unavailable the elderly will turn to nonfamily member such as

friends or neighbors (Cantor, 1979). For individuals without spouse and children facing

increasing risk of receiving insufficient support, they mainly rely on their siblings, or turn to their

friends when the siblings are unavailable（Goldberg, Kantrow, Kremen, & Lauter, 1986; Johnson &

Catalano, 1981). Instead, Task-specific Model argues that substitution of social supports is not

common because characteristics of one kind of support usually determine only one kind of provider

is suitable to give (Litwak, 1985). For example, the close kin usually involve long-term history and

intimacy task, friends tend to deal with tasks requiring similarities of experience and history, and

neighbors handle with some emergencies (Dono et al. 1979; Cantor, 1979; Litwak, 1985). In

addition, Hierarchical Model emphasizes on the support sources and overestimates the importance of

other relatives especially the role of siblings without considering the mobilization or activation of

recipients themselves and discussing relatively little about the characteristic of support or the

proximity among relatives. Some research found that great stress tends to force people to seek new

social support (Pearlin, Menaghan, Lieberman, & Mullan, 1981; Arling, 1987; Thoits, 1995). Over

time, the never-married men will come to realize the diminishing possibility of getting married so as

to have spouses and children, which may drive them to make more friends as potential care-givers

for old age security (Connidis & Mc-Mullin, 1992; Johnson & Catalano, 1981). On the contrary,

some maintains that particular kinds of stress may actually aggregate inherent isolation from outside

and even reject support from others (Krause, 1991).Some older never-married individuals are more

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likely to depend on themselves but not seek for any assistance from any family members or relatives

(Penning, 1990). In a word, the function of care-givers differs with kinds of support and relations

with the individual, and the particular individual behaves differently when seeking various kinds of

supports under pressure.

Many researches focus on the amount and nature of kin and non-kin’s social support, but only a

few focus on the potential social support and applying the Hierarchical Compensatory Model to

the preferences of old-age expectations. Lots of studies reported that in China especially the rural

areas the elderly parents expect to live with sons and receive old-age support from their sons

(Kuroda, 1994; Xu & Yuan, 1997). If the individuals become the “Five Guaranteed” that means the

family support is absent, receiving the formal institutional support is their last resort (Kallgren,

1992), which is consistent with the Hierarchical Compensatory Model. Accordingly, we think the

Hierarchical Compensatory Model is applicable to explain the preferences of forced bachelors for

old-age expectations. To overcome the limitation of Hierarchical Compensatory Model, this paper

not only examines the forced bachelors’ preference for family support, but also assesses their

subjective initiatives of their old-age expectations.

Old-age expectations, birth cohort and migration experience

In social psychology, some researchers held a view that a well-established expectation is in

accordance with individuals’ cognition, and such expectation will affect final action (Fishbein &

Ajzen, 1975). Base on this we infer that there must be a certain correlation between the forced

bachelors’ old-age expectations and the support that they finally got, and getting or losing some

support will also change their expectations. Examining forced bachelors’ old-age expectations will

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help the policy makers to develop the social security systems in rural China. Many determinants

were proven to affect support given to the elderly, such as demographic and social-economic factors

(gender, age, income, education and so on) and stress factors (like negative life events) (Blau, 1978;

Fischer, 1982; Logan & Bian, 2003) may be also associated with the old-age expectations. In this

paper, we will emphasize the impacts of birth cohort and migration experiences on old-age

expectations for the following reasons.

Firstly, forced bachelors in different birth cohorts are assumed to have different old-age expectations.

Social foundation for traditional old-age pattern is changing dramatically over time, with the filial

piety greatly undermined and the expectations of old age support from children declined (Ogawa &

Retherford, 1993; Yue & Ng, 1999). By examining the filial piety expectations of younger and older

generations (Seelbach, 1978; Yue & Ng 1999; Lee, Netzer, & Coward, 1994), some studies found

that the traditional old-age support pattern has already changed and difference of filial piety

expectations does exist between the two generations. Although both older and younger generations

heavily endorsed that offspring should respect and look after their elderly parents, the older

generation still insist on traditional filial commitments and expect old-age support from offspring,

the younger generation did not emphasize the obligation of providing financial support towards their

elderly parents any more (Yue & Ng, 1999). The younger generation is more likely to accept the

old-age support pattern like relying on themselves or formal social old-age security system (Liu,

Zhuo, & Zhen, 2004). In addition, some researches hold that most elderly parents want to be

independent as much as possible, living alone as long as possible when they are able to take care of

themselves, but expecting their children to take their filial duty when they are not able to do so any

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longer (Myers & Nathanson 1982; Neugarten, 1975).

Secondly, experience of migrating to urban areas for work more or less changes people’s attitudes

and behaviors as a part of urbanization. In Mao’s period, the strict hukou system, state-owned

work units and secret personnel files set lots of barriers to migration, so rural to urban migration is

basically impossible (Chan & Zhang 1999; Seeborg, Jin, & Zhu, 2000). Keeping the traditional

old-age support pattern is relatively easy in such an isolated and stable society, with filial piety very

strong and most parents supported by their children and especially their sons (Fei, 1992). At that

time, parents expected their children to live nearby so as to enjoy considerable aid from them

(Kerckhoff, 1965; Shanas & Streib, 1965). Since 1978, rural residents were allowed to temporarily

migrate and work in urban areas, which triggered the “floating population” booming and drove the

pace of urbanization speeding (Rosow, 2003). The fifth census in 2000 has shown that about 144.39

million rural residents moved into urban areas (National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS)

(1994–2003)). The large-scaled rural-urban migration may affect traditional family norms and in

particular filial piety norms and old-age support patterns of China's rural society. With the

modernization and westernization becoming more and more influential and the intergenerational

geographic distance expanding, the traditional filial piety and parental authority based on Confusions

was weakened and the expectation of independence as well as generational gap was strengthened.

Unlike the never-migrate ones, rural residents who ever lived in urban areas, ,are more likely to

choose formal institutional old-age support and to participate old-age pension programs other than

accepting the traditional old-age support pattern (Guo & Gao 2008).

However, there are few researches about the forced bachelors’ old-age expectations and

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corresponding factors including birth cohort and migration experiences. Although birth cohort and

migration experiences are simple factors, they not only reflect the personal physiological and social

characteristic, but also reveal social change and development. Thus, based on Hierarchical

Compensatory Model, this paper analyses the forced bachelors’ old-age expectations from the

perspectives of birth cohort and migration experiences which helps to clarify the effects of male

marriage squeeze on old-age support expectations so as to resolve the old-age support crisis earlier

under the circumstance of rapid population aging in China.

METHOD

Data

Our data are from a survey conducted by the Institute for Population and Development Studies at

Xi'an Jiaotong University in four towns in Yi County (a pseudonym) of Anhui Province in August

2008. According to the data from the fifth census in 2000, the sex ratio at birth is more than 130 in

Anhui province and 145 in Yi County, where gender imbalance is serious and son preference

remains strong (Graham, Larsen, & Xu, et al. 1998). Yi county represents an average level for the

male marriage squeeze and socioeconomic development for rural China overall. Subjects of the

survey include unmarried men aged 28 or older, married men, unmarried women, married women,

and some of their parents, who are randomly selected depending on the sampling frame provided by

the local government. In the past half century, with the depth of reform and opening in China,

political, economical, cultural, and so on change enormously in period of social transition, people’s

personal values and way of life have changed thereupon, which bring great difference between the

population below fifty years old and above fifty years old in terms of education, occupation and

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other characteristics. So in this paper the men who are above fifty years old are excluded. For a

better comparison, the forced bachelors and married men were matched for age in this paper, in

which only men aged 28-48 (which correspond the birth year of 1960 to 1980) were incorporated

into the analysis. The total samples analyzed in this paper is 357 rural men, including 135 forced

bachelors and 222 married men, with the average age 38.15 years old (SD=5.30 years), 50.70% ever

migrated and 49.30% never migrated.

Measures Two questions in the questionnaire concerns the old-age expectations: “What is the best

source of financial support when you become old?” (To measure expectation of financial support

source; six options were provided as following: 1. Children, including adopted children; 2. Siblings;

3. Own savings; 4. No preparation; 5.Buy pension insurance; 6. Governmental aid); “Whom will you

choose to live with when you become old?” (To measure expectation of living arrangements; five are

provided as following: 1.Children; 2.Siblings; 3. Spouse or live alone; 4. No preparation; 5. Live in

geracomium). Although the forced bachelors did not have wives and biological children to rely on,

the options of “rely on children” and “live with children” will help us identify their desired model of

old-age support and living arrangement from the traditional one (i.e. relying on children financially

and living with children). In addition, it helps us understand whether the traditional model of old-age

support in rural China will be challenged or replaced by a new model under the background of male

marriage squeeze. Furthermore, both informal and formal support source were considered, and

depending on their own savings and having no preparation are regarded as active and negative

response to aging respectively. The role of friends in providing old-age support was ignored because

friends’ taking care of the elderly, needing a long-term commitment and intimate contact, has been

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rare in rural China.

RESULTS

Overview

The results of the rural men’s old-age expectations in different marital status, birth cohort and

migration experiences are summarized in Table 1. It is surprising that no rural men chose their

siblings as their finance source or family members to live with regardless of their marital status.

< Table 1 here>

As to marital status, forced bachelors differ significantly from married men not only in expectation

of financial source but also in living expectation. For forced bachelors, the proportion of expecting

to receive the government aid is the highest and that of expecting to get financial source from

children is the lowest as their last resort; For married men, relying on their own savings become the

most dominant choice, with still 22.07% of them expecting to rely on their children, while the

proportion of expecting to get government aid is the lowest as their last resort. On the living

arrangement expectation, the proportion of expecting to live alone or live with spouses is the highest

for both forced bachelor and married men, but much higher for married men than for forced

bachelors. And 35.56% of forced bachelors expect to live in geracomium, having living with

children as their last choice; but for married men, living with children is their second top choice and

living in the geracomium is the last choice.

From the perspective of birth cohort, the younger generation was significantly more independent

than the older generation in the financial source but not in living arrangement. The older generation

is more willing to turn to government aid and living in geracomium run by the government. An

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interesting finding is that the younger generation, compared with the older one, is still adherent to

the traditional model of old-age support in which relying on children and living with children is

dominant.

From the perspective of migration experiences, both the desired finance source and desired living

arrangement are not significantly different between ever-migrated and never-migrated men. The

experiences of migration tend to enhance rural men’s independence in old-age support, identifying

with relying on their own savings, living alone or living with their spouses. For those never-migrated

men, their financial source expectation shows more complicated, own savings, pension insurance

and government aid composing their main choices; and their living arrangement expectation is less

independent than ever-migrated men, with living in geracomium as their second top choice.

Marital difference in old-age expectations by birth cohort

Table 2 provides marital difference in old-age expectations by birth cohort. Firstly, birth cohort plays

an important role in diversification of old-age expectations for the forced bachelors. Compared with

the forced bachelors who were born between 1960-1970, the independence of old-age expectations

for the forced bachelors who were born in 1971-1980 have been improved, with Chi-square value of

financial source expectation 9.07(Pr=0.059) and living expectation 10.92(Pr=0.012). However, the

proportion of negative response to old-age living arrangement is higher for younger forced bachelors

than for older ones, nearly a third of them (31.82%) preparing nothing for their old age.

For the married men, their old-age expectations were not significantly different between the two

generations, with the Chi-square value of financial source expectation 3.76(Pr=0.440) and living

arrangement expectation 1.61(Pr=0.657). Despite having the increasing consciousness of

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self-support, they are still adherent to the traditional old-age support model.

Secondly, marital status has significant impacts on old-age expectations for the two generations. For

the older generation who were born in 1960-1970, forced bachelors tend to depend on governmental

support while married men tend to buy pension insurance or save more money for their old age. For

the younger generation who were born in 1971-1980, some of the forced bachelors is still less

independent than married men, having a tendency of relying on children and living with children

when they become old though they will remain wifeless and childless in the rest of their lives.

< Table 2 here >

Marital difference in old-age expectations by migration experiences

Table 3 shows the marital difference in old-age expectations by migration experiences. Firstly,

migration experience has significant impacts on old-age expectations for the forced bachelors. The

ever-migrated forced bachelors are more independent than the never-migrated forced bachelors: The

former tend to accept pension insurance or living alone for their old age while the latter do not. The

financial source expectation varies significantly between forced bachelors with different migration

experiences: the Chi-square value is 20.61 (pr=0.000). An interesting finding is that the

ever-migrated forced bachelors are more likely to live with children than never-migrated older

unmarried men, and the Chi-square value of living arrangement expectation is 10.85(pr=0.028).

Secondly, migration experience has no significant impacts on both expectations of financial source

(chi2=1.28, pr=0.735) and living arrangement (chi2=2.15, pr=0.708) for the married men. Regardless

of migration experiences, most of married men insist on self-supporting model, and only some of

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them still place more hope on their children.

In addition, significant marital difference was also found in the old-age expectations from the

perspective of migration experiences. For the ever-migrated men, forced bachelors are more likely to

expect to receive governmental aid and living in geracomium while married men are more likely to

choose self-supporting model. For the never-migrated men, forced bachelors tend to heavily rely on

governmental aid, whose degree of dependence is the highest, then the never-migrated married men

and forced bachelors born in 1960-1970.

< Table 3 here >

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

This paper reveals several interesting findings about old-age expectations of forced bachelors in

contemporary rural China, which support our assumptions about the Hierarchical Compensatory

Model. First, neither forced bachelors nor married men will choose their siblings as their old age

supporters, which is significantly against the previous studies. The previous studies reveal that some

unmarried childless people heavily rely on their siblings (Goldberg, el at. 1986; Johnson & Catalano,

1981), which suggests that the Hierarchical Compensatory Model have over-estimated the role of

siblings, and it is not suitable for son-based family old-age support system in China. A reliable

old-age security system has not yet reached the rural areas, sons and daughters-in law are still the

major sources of old-age support for parents (Chen & Silverstein 2000; Lin, et al. 2003), and relying

on and living with siblings are generally not adopted by rural residents. A possible reason is that

those rural men have not reached their old age, or they just expect their sibling to provide emotional

support when they get old (Choi, 1996), or rural men hold the filial obligations and expectations

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more strongly than rural women (Yue & Ng, 1999), and the traditional idea of taking care of the

elderly doesn’t include choosing their siblings as the undertaker of responsibility of old-age.

Secondly, according to the principle of Hierarchical Compensatory Model, when the sources of

old-age assistance from familial, and non-familial members are not available, the formal institutions

will become the last resort (Cantor, 1979), which is supported by this paper. For the forced bachelors,

there were two formal sources to be selected: pension insurance and governmental aid, the former

needs to pay money for fifteen years, and the latter is free. In addition, the geracomiums run by local

governments are available for forced bachelors to live, but the daily expenses are shared between

government and individuals. The older unmarried men who are always marked by poverty, limited at

earning ability, unhealthy, poorly educated, introvert and so on (South, 1991; Dykstra, 2004), which

generally makes them difficult to afford the pension insurance. Compared with the fee of pension

insurance, the costs of living in a geracomium is much lower. Thus, expecting the governmental aid

and living in a geracomium become their first priority, which conforms to the Hierarchical

Compensatory Model. However, the procedure of applying for governmental aid and permit to live

in a geracomium is very strict and complicated, not all older forced bachelors being able to benefit

from these projects. So, some of the older unmarried childless men need fully mobilize their own

initiative to cope with the coming old age.

Third, human’s initiative and active activities make up the limitation of Hierarchical Compensatory

Model. Instead of expecting help from governments, some forced bachelors tend to pursue their

old-age source from their own when they face the increasing risk of losing families. We divided

those men into two groups, one is active and the other is passive. With the absence of spouse and

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child, the former are more likely to save more money for their old age instead of seeking assistant

from family members or governments, which is verified the previous literature that stressful events

encourage people seek social support actively (Pearlin, et al.1981; Arling, 1987; Thoits, 1995),

including seeking help from their own (Penning, 1990). But the latter neither think much about their

old age nor prepare anything for their future. One possible reason is that some of them feel it is too

early to consider their old age life, after all, they are still young; or, the certain stressors such as

failure to get married increase their distrust, which may lead to isolation from others and reject any

helps (Krause, 1991), and eventually to be forced on themselves.

Fourthly, with the development of economy and society, the filial piety has declined (Ho, Hong &

Chiu, 1989), and the traditional idea of raising children for old age has been changed. Rural men

relying on their own savings to ensure their old age become one of the important alternatives for

their future old-age support, especially for those married men. There has been a greater social

acceptance of living alone for both forced bachelors and married men, which is different from prior

studies in rural China (Xu & Yuan, 1997). But it is consistent with the trend in developed industrial

countries: in both the United States and Canada approximately one-third of the elderly now live

alone (Myers & Nathanson, 1982). This trend will be more and more dominant with increasing of

economic independence, better health, suiting housing and so on (Harrison, 1981). However, entire

self-support for old age is not a long-term solution, which can only support a certain stage in one’s

life when their savings and physical condition enable them to be independent. Accordingly,

promoting projects for affordable old-age insurance and establishing more cheap and qualified

geracomiums for rural residents is very necessary.

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This paper also reveal anther intriguing finding: Marital status has a significant effect on old-age

expectations, namely male marriage squeeze has changed the forced bachelors’ old-age expectations.

Compared with married men, the failure of getting old age resource from spouses and children drove

the forced bachelors to rely on governments by receiving governmental financial aid and living in a

geracomium, which is the last resort for them. If the forced bachelors remain unmarried and

childless when they enter old age, they will become “five guaranteed” supported by governments,

which will bring a huge challenge on social security system of China. Compared with the forced

bachelors, some of married men are more traditional, generally expecting to rely on their children

financially or to live with their children, because these married men have a complete nuclear family

to rely on. As results show that the married men have more available old-age resources than the

forced bachelors, so it is worth to thinking about how to develop the public pension resources to

make up the losses of older unmarried men’s old-age resources. Although the traditional model of

old-age support of relying on children or living with children is still the priority for rural residents, it

faces the challenges from the rapidly changing intergenerational relations driven by adult children’s

out-migration for work in urban areas and fading paternalism.

Finally, the impacts of marital status on old-age expectations are also found in different birth cohorts

and migration experiences, and the impacts of birth cohorts and migration experiences are more

significantly for the forced bachelors than for married men. The forced bachelors who were born in

1960-1970 or never-migrated are the most dependent in their old-age expectations. A possible reason

is that, under the background of sustain male marriage squeeze, and the possibility of getting married

is smaller through the years since they will be older and poorer. It forces them to expect more help

19

from governments. For the married men who were born in 1960-1970 or never-migrated, they are

still independent than forced bachelors of the same birth cohort and migration experiences. However,

different birth cohorts and migration experiences have not significant effects on old-age expectations

of married men. The possible reasons are: in comparison with urban areas, the traditional model of

old-age support in rural areas tends to change slowly and less dramatically, if they do not encounter

important life events, rural men’s old-age expectations would be not change significantly. We do not

know how long these rural men ever migrated, which maybe affect these results.

In summary, the model of hierarchical compensatory is only supported partly by this paper, no rural

men expect siblings as their old-age supporters, and the forced bachelors have to give up the old-age

expectation of relying on children. When the familial and non-familial resources are not available,

the formal help from government become the forced bachelors’ primary resort. The failure to get

married drove some of forced bachelors to save money early or do nothing for their old age. The

traditional old-age support were changed greater: self-support become one of important alternatives

for rural men to ensure their old age. In addition, marital status is a significant determinant affecting

old-age expectations of rural men in contemporary China, and the older and never-migrated forced

bachelors are more dependent on governments than others. These findings may help policy making

in the context of an unreliable social security system and a rapidly growing population of forced

bachelors driven by sustainable gender imbalance. Currently, there are still significant contradictions

between old-age expectations of rural residents and available supply of social security system in

rural China: the government financial aid is limited and necessary facilities in local geracomiums are

badly needed. With the population aging accelerately, it is urgent to expand government pension

20

schemes and help the forced bachelors become more financially independent to ensure their old age

in rural areas.

Acknowledgements

This study is co-funded by the “985 Project” National Social Science Research Base of the State

Education Ministry of China, Fok Ying Tung Education Foundation (121093) and the Scientific

Research Foundation for Returned Overseas Chinese Scholars supported by State Education

Ministry of China.

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Table 1 Percentage distribution of rural men’s old-age expectation

Expectation Marital status Birth cohort Migration experiences Source of finance Old

Unmarried Married 1960-1970 1971-1980 Ever-migr

ated Never-migrated

Sample (135) (222) (202) (155) (181) (176) Children 5.93 22.07 13.37 19.35 14.92 17.05 Own Savings 20.00 33.78 25.74 32.26 32.60 24.43 No preparation 11.85 10.36 11.88 9.68 12.15 9.66 Pension Insurance 21.48 28.38 24.26 27.74 27.07 24.43 Government Aid 40.74 5.41 24.75 10.97 13.26 24.43

Chi2 76.86*** 12.96* 9.02+ Live arrangement Old

Unmarried Married 1960-1970 1971-1980 Ever-migr

ated Never-migrated

Sample (135) (222) (202) (155) (181) (176) Children 7.41 19.37 10.89 20.00 15.47 14.20 Live alone/with spouse 37.04 61.71 54.46 49.68 55.25 49.43 No preparation 20.00 13.06 13.37 18.71 19.34 11.93 Geracomium 35.56 5.86 21.29 11.61 9.94 24.43

Chi2 63.76*** 11.68** 14.75**

Notes: ***, p<0.001; **, p<0.01; *, p<0.05; +, p<0.1; NS, p>=0.1; ns: not significant;

29

Table 2 Marital difference in old-age expectations by birth cohort Expectations 1960-1970 1971-1980 Source of finance Unmarried○1 Married○2 Unmarried○3 Married○4 Sample (91) (111) (44) (111)

Children 3.30 21.62 11.36 22.52 Own Savings 21.98 28.83 15.91 38.74 No preparation 12.09 11.71 11.36 9.01 Pension Insurance

16.48 30.63 31.82 26.13

Government Aid 46.15 7.21 29.55 3.60 (○1 VS○2 ) 48.25*** (○3 VS○4 )27.00***

Chi2 (○1 VS○3 )9.07+ (○2 VS○4 )3.76 ns

Live arrangement Sample (91) (111) (44) (111)

Children 4.40 16.22 13.64 22.52 Live alone/with

spouse 41.76 64.86 27.27 58.56

No preparation 14.29 12.61 31.82 13.51 Geracomium 39.56 6.31 27.27 5.41

(○1 VS○2 ) 37.40*** (○3 VS○4 )36.07*** Chi2

(○1 VS○3 )10.92* (○2 VS○4 )1.61 ns

Notes: ***, p<0.001; **, p<0.01; *, p<0.05; +, p<0.1; NS, p>=0.1; ns: not significant;

30

31

Table 3 Marital difference in old-age expectation by migration experiences Expectations Ever-migrated Never-migrated Source of finance Unmarried○1 Married○2 Unmarried○3 Married○4 Sample (69) (112) (66) (110)

Children 5.80 20.54 6.06 23.64 Own Savings 28.99 34.82 10.61 32.73 No preparation 13.04 11.61 10.61 9.09 Pension Insurance 23.19 29.46 19.70 27.27 Government Aid 28.99 3.57 53.03 7.27

(○1 VS○2 ) 28.15*** (○3 VS○4 )52.16*** Chi2

(○1 VS○3 )20.61*** (○2 VS○4 )1.28 ns Live arrangement

Children 11.59 17.86 3.03 20.91 Live alone/with

spouse 40.58 64.29 33.33 59.09

No preparation 28.99 13.39 10.61 12.73 Geracomium 18.84 4.46 53.03 7.27

(○1 VS○2 ) 19.67*** (○3 VS○4 )50.33*** Chi2

(○1 VS○3 )10.85* (○2 VS○4 )2.15 ns

Notes: ***, p<0.001; **, p<0.01; *, p<0.05; +, p<0.1; ns, p>=0.1; ns: not significant;