“While we are free to choose our actions, we are not free to choose the consequences of our actions. “

Stephen R. Covey (1932- )

What is “Risk”?

1. The probability of something bad happening

and2. The negative

consequences that result if it does happen

Risk has two components:

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Aquaculture Risks Can Be Viewed in Various Ways

Risks to financial and economic well being

Risks to human healthRisks to social well beingRisks to the physical

environmentRisks to the biological

environment (Biodiversity)Insurable vs. uninsurable

risks

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Risks of Failure Due to Management Factors

Lack of appropriate expertise/experienceLack of adequate government over sightPoor planning (macro and micro level)Inadequate market researchBad operational decisionsInadequate financial backing/resources

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Risks of Failure Due to Market FactorsCurrency fluctuations affecting

international marketsNew competitorsUnpredicted changes in consumer

preferences

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Risks to Assets

Destruction or loss of infrastructure &/or stock due to natural and man-made disasters and “Acts of God”toxic algal blooms epizootic disease outbreakschronic disease lossesvandalism & theftpower failurepredationunusual weather eventswar

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Risks to Human HealthPublic health risks may be due to:

pathogens and contaminants in live fish and their products (e.g. bioaccumulation of heavy metals, organophosphates, etc. from feeding trash fish, parasitic infections such as anisakid nematodes, and larval trematodes, algal toxins , etc.)

post-harvest changes (spoilage bacteria, histamines)

contamination of drinking water (by antibiotics, chemicals, feeds used in aquaculture)

breeding of resistant strains of bacteria (via misuse of antibiotics, e.g. chloramphenicol)

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Risks to Human HealthOccupational risks:

risk of physical injuries (cuts, diving accidents, boating accidents, electrical shocks, etc.)

chemical poisoning (breathing, skin contact, consumption of caustic chemicals, poisons)

bites and stingspost-harvest infections (bacterial infections -

e.g. from handling tilapias)

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Risks to the Physical Environmentrisk of environmental degradation (by nets,

garbage, siltation, other forms of pollution, escapees)

risk of decreased esthetics or quality of life (“not in my backyard” syndrome - frequent in developed countries where aquaculture and residential areas are in close proximity)

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Risks to the Biological Environment (Biodiversity)Unintentional introduction of pests and “fellow

travelers” (tilapia fry in milkfish shipments, many other examples)

Intentional introduction of species that become invasive (Invasive aquatic species, IAS) (golden apple snail)

risk of potential genetic impacts on native stocks due to use of new species or strains

risk of potential ecological impacts on local ecosystems

risk of potential pathogen introductions11

Risks to the Biological Environment

Risk of bio-magnification of parasites and diseases of native species (e.g. of sealice in British Columbia)

Risks due to breeding of resistant strains of bacteria that impact aquaculture success (e.g. vibrios in Asian prawn hatcheries)

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Pathogen Risks Associated with Introductions and Transfers

Introduction of exotic pathogensmany highly pathogenic and untreatable virusesspecies that are non-pathogenic in the normal host may be highly

pathogenic in new hoststransboundary aquatic animal diseases (TAADs) - many examples.

Introduction of new strains of existing pathogens (bacteria and viruses)

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Ecological Risks Associated with Introductions and Transfers

Competition (food, breeding, habitat) (e.g. in Asian catfishes)

Predation (Nile perch, rainbow trout, other carnivorous species)

Habitat destruction/alternation (janitor fish in Philippines and Malaysia, zebra mussel in the Great Lakes)

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Ecological Risk Analysis (ERA)

Ecological impacts of introduced & transferred species (pests & Invasives)

Examples: o Transmission of disease organisms o Biological interaction of escapes with

wild populations including predation, competition, genetic impacts, etc.

o Physical interactions with aquatic life o Physical impacts on aquatic

ecosystems

Sustainable

Aquaculture

Development

Environmental Risk Analysis (ERA)

Risks to the physical & biological

environment in which aquaculture takes place

Examples: o Organic and chemical pollution o habitat change & loss o impacts on wild populations o secondary impacts on other

production systems

Pathogen Risk Analysis (PRA)

Pathogen risks posed by international & domestic movements, including on-farm

Genetic Risk Analysis Genetic Risks in aquaculture

o From new species & strains o From GMOs, triploids, etc.

Financial Risk Analysis

Business risks in aquaculture Costs to society of pathogens,

pests, invasives Social Risk Analysis

Risks to aquaculture from society

Risks to society from aquaculture

Food Safety/Human Health Risk Analysis

Microbiological risks in food

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Pathogen Risk AnalysisAlso termed Import Risk Analysis (IRA)IRA is a highly structured process that is

carried out by countries when assessing proposals to import live aquatic animals or their products.

If World Trade Organization (WTO) member countries require sanitary measures beyond those outlined in the OIE’s Aquatic Animal Health Code, such measures must be justified by a risk analysis.

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Ecological Risk AnalysisOften referred to as Pest AnalysisOverlaps with and complements actions to

prevent the impacts of “Invasive Species”Procedures have not been formalized by

international agreement, and thus the process is at the discretion of the importing country

Countries need to develop their own standardized risk analysis procedures

ICES Code of Practice and other recommended protocols may serve as a basis of this.

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Invasive Species

A species that has been introduced into an environment in which it did not evolve, and whose introduction causes, or is likely to cause, economic or environmental harm, or harm to human health.

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Fish

Mammals

Inverte

brates

Plants

Reptile

sBird

s

Amphibians

Viruse

s

Fungi

Invasive Species are found in

ALL taxonomic groups

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Effects of Invasive SpeciesPredation Predation HerbivoryHerbivoryCompetitionCompetitionHybridizationHybridizationDiseaseDisease

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•Invasive organisms are the second greatest threat to biodiversity worldwide

•Many have totally altered ecosystem structure and function

•Many have caused enormous economic damage

•Some are a threat to human health

•Invasions are usually not reversible

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Increasing Cost

Increasing Ease

Pre-entry Port-of-entry Rapid-response

INVASION-PREVENTION FILTERS

World’s Biota

Imports Escapes Widespread

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Genetic Risks from Aquaculture

Aquaculture operations frequently lose small numbers of cultured fish to the natural environment (“leakage”)

Occasionally, catastrophic losses of large numbers of fish occur due to equipment failure, storm damage or flood.

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Why is Genetic Improvement Important to Aquaculture?Genetic improvement can increase

aquaculture production and efficiencyGenetically superior aquaculture stocks are

produced through:use of high-performance exotic stocks &

species (introductions and transfers)development & use of:

selectively bred stocks interspecific hybrids triploids transgenic lines (GMOs)

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In Genetic Risk Analysis:

Hazardous agent = the cultured stock Harm = the resulting damage (i.e. a

consequence) In the aquaculture context, the hazard may be:

a non-indigenous (exotic) species or strainan interspecific hybrid a non-indigenous, selectively bred, triploid or

transgenic stock (includes GMOs)

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Direct Genetic HarmsResult from interbreeding of a cultured stock with

reproductively compatible populations in the receiving ecosystem

Include:Loss of adaptation (impacts the same species)

Interbreeding with escaped cultured organisms displaces allele frequencies at fitness-related genes in wild populations from selective optima, resulting in loss of fitness.

Introgressive hybridization (impacts another species) Escape or stocking of an exotic species can result in

interbreeding with a reproductively compatible species in the receiving environment. If the resulting hybrid is fertile, it poses the risk of introgressive hybridization with the native species, threatening its genetic integrity.

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Direct Genetic HarmsExamples of loss of adaptation:

Escapes of Atlantic salmon from net-pen culture comprise 70% of the spawning stock in some Norwegian rivers, A model assessing one-generation effects of interbreeding of escaped cultured fish on of natural populations showed reductions in genetic differentiation up to 80%.

Cultured Atlantic salmon differ genetically and behaviorally from wild salmon. Cultured and hybrid salmon had reduced survival, but faster growth than wild fish, and their parr displaced wild parr competitively.

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Direct Genetic HarmsExamples of loss of adaptation:

The lifetime reproductive success of farmed salmon was 16% that of native salmon, and the productivity of the wild population was reduced by more than 30% by interbreeding.

Hatchery Atlantic salmon exhibited significant changes in allele frequencies and loss of low-frequency alleles relative to the wild population from which they were derived one generation earlier. The risk of random genetic drift and inbreeding had doubled over the one generation.

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Direct Genetic HarmsExamples of introgressive hybridization:

In Thailand, hybrid catfish escaping from farms interbred with native catfish, giving rise to introgressive hybridization with both wild and cultured stocks .

In the Philippines, poor management led to unwanted hybridization of previously pure tilapia species to occur by escapes and intrusions.

In Bangladesh, 8.3% of silver carp broodstock exhibited bighead carp alleles, while 23.3 % of bighead carp exhibited silver carp alleles. Some fish were advanced-generation hybrids, compromising broodstock integrity and performance in aquaculture.

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Indirect Genetic Harms Result when escaped or released cultured stock

compete or prey on other populations or species in the receiving ecosystem.

Include:By reducing their abundance, the effective population

size of affected populations is reduced, causing loss of genetic variability and ability to adapt in the face of changing selective pressure, and also increased likelihood of subsequent inbreeding and extinction.

If cultured fish interbreed unsuccessfully with a wild population, the loss of reproductive investment increases demographic risk. This mechanism can be realized by: Interbreeding of a cultured stock and a natural

population that results in a sterile hybrid.

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Indirect Genetic Harms The use of triploid aquaculture stocks raises three

issues: The efficacy with which triploids are produced,

which does not reach a full 100%. Hence, triploid verification has to be implemented to manage risk.

The stability of the triploid state. For example, a small percentage of Pacific and Suminoe oysters have shown signs of reverting to the diploid state.

The functional sterility of triploid adults. Triploid males of some species may undergo gonadal maturation, sometimes producing haploid or aneuploid sperm. If they mate with diploid females, the resulting broods will be non-viable, reducing the reproductive success of the receiving population.

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Status of Genetic Risk AnalysisProcedures have not been formalized by

international agreement. The process is at the discretion of the importing

country; thus countries need to develop their own standardized risk analysis procedure.

ICES Code of Practice and other protocols may serve as a basis of this.

Where concerns exist, precautionary approaches should be applied. This may involve targeted experimental studies and monitoring of pilot introductions.

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Aquaculture Offers Many Potential Benefits

Economic benefitsdirect and indirect employmentlocal investment potential export earnings

Social benefitsproduction of high-quality, low-cost protein enabling and empowerment of rural populations,

including womenpotential for sustainability and “greenness”

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Balancing the Risks and Benefits of Aquaculture

Key PointsCareless movements of live aquatic animals

can lead to:Degraded habitatsReduced biodiversitySpecies becoming rare or extirpatedCollapse of aquaculture Major social and economic impacts

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Key Points

Risk analysis is a decision-making tool that contributes to protecting national health and welfare.

It can also contribute to sustainable aquaculture and the success of individual aquaculture businesses and operations.

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