When the Lights Go Out

8/13/2019 When the Lights Go Out

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WHEN THE LIGHTS GO OUT

MAXWELL IRVINE

GUILDFORD

OCTOBER 2005


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POWER TO THE PEOPLE:

NUMBERS COUNT


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NUMBERS COUNT Energy is quite simply the single most

important commodity for our existence

and the survival of our society and ourcivilization.

Ensuring an adequate, safe, sustainable

and secure supply should be our highestnational priority. It is easy to forget this

in times of abundance.


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NUMBERS COUNT Power to the people is not a call for

political revolution but it is a call for

urgent political action.

No amount of political wishful thinking

will resolve the issues. This is a

quantitative as well as qualitative set ofissues and numbers count


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CAVEAT

These are my personal views. My

Committees Report is due in June 2006.

I am on a steep learning curve and am

open to conversion.

Because of time, I will concentrate on the

Global picture as a back drop to thediscussion session.


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CURRENT UK POLICY

Current policy is enshrined in the 2003White Paper Our Energy Future:

creating a low carbon economy. No new nuclear stations in the forseeable

future.

Heavy dependence on renewables. Replacement of domestic fossil fuels by

imported gas.


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OUR ENERGY FUTURE:

. This is not a White Paper; it is a Green Paperwith a broad yellow stripe (House of

Commons Select Committee).

We have met no one outside Government who

believes these figures (House of Lords Select

Committee) that is why it is a political aspiration and

not a policy target (Energy adviser DTI)


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ENERGY DEMAND

DRIVERS People use energymore people require

more energy.

The more people do, the more energy

they require. Economic development

feeds on energy.

The more severe the climate the greaterthe need for energy.


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POPULATION GROWTHPOPULATION GROWTH (BILLIONS)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Africa N.America L&SAmerica Asia Europe Global

1973 1983 19932003 2020(PROJ)


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POPULATION GROWTH

1950-2000 the population grew from 2.4

billion to over 6 billion.

20002020 the UN is projecting a

growth to 7.5 billion.

By 2050 the UN predicts a global

population of 9 billion (260 people forevery square mile of dry land.


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POPULATION GROWTH

Europe and North America have stable

populations. They produce and consume half

the Worlds energy. The developing World has a rapidly expanding

population and economic growth.

China and India (1/3 of global population) are

experiencing double digit economic growth.


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ENERGY GROWTH

19502000 energy demand quadrupled.

20002050 it is expected to double


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TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY

GLOBAL

HYDRO 2.2%NUCLEAR6.8%

BIOMASS 10.9%

OIL 34.9%

COAL 24.8%

GAS 21.2%

TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY 2002


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OECD 52.2

L&S AMER 4.4

ASIA 23.8

FORM USSR 9.1

MID EAST 4.2AFRICA5.3

TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY % BY REGION 2002


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COAL 20.8

HYDRO 2.0OTHER 0.7

NUCLEAR 11.1

GAS 21.9BIOMASS 3.3

OIL 40.4

TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY BY OECD COUNTRIES 2002


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TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY

SUPPLY Fossil fuels account for 80.9% of all

global energy supply. 83.1% in OECD.

Biomass ( all non fossilisedhydrocarbons, including waste) accountsfor 10.9% globally but only 3.3% inOECD

Others (wind, waves, tides, solar,geothermal etc) account for


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COAL 39

OIL 7.2GAS 19.1

NUCLEAR 16.6

HYDRO 16.2

OTHER 1.9

ELECTRICITY GENERATION % BY PRIMARY FUEL 2002


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FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION

COAL 7.1

GAS 16.2

OIL 43.0

BIOMASS 14.1

ELEC 16.1OTHER 3.5

GLOBAL % 2002


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FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION

BY REGION

OECD 52.1

ASIA 23.6

AFRICA 5.7

MID EAST 4.1

L&S AMER 5.0

FORM USSR 8.6

% 2002


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FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE OECD

BY FUEL

OIL 52.7

OTHER 1.4COAL 3.3

ELECTRICITY 19.7

BIOMASS 3.2

GAS 19.7


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ENERGY CONSUMPTION

Two thirds of all electricity is generated by

burning fossil fuels (more than a third by coal)

Direct burning of fossil fuels accounts for twothirds of all final energy consumption

In the OECD more than three quarters of final

energy consumption comes as fossil fuels

(mostly oil)

Consumption matches supply


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SUSTAINABILITY

Two issuesavailability and impact of

use


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0

50

100

150

200

250

COAL OIL GAS TOTAL

CURRENT +1%PA +2%PA

YEARS TO EXHAUSTION OF PROVEN GLOBAL FOSSIL FUEL

RESERVES AT CURRENT CONSUMPTION AND WITH 1% AND 2%

GROWTH RATES


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FOSSIL FUEL EXHAUSTION

Current proven reserves of all fossil fuels willbe exhausted in just over 50 years if currenttrends continue.

New reserves will be found, new technologieswill lead to greater depletion efficiency and ascosts rise uneconomic fields will become viable.

However, oil and gas finds have lagged behindfield exhaustion for nearly twenty years.

Costs are now rising steeply (>100%pa)


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ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT

Concerns about coal go back to theIndustrial Revolution.

Particulate omission (smoke banned1960s)

Acid rain (sulphur emissions controlled1970s)

Emission controls cost moneycoalconsumption peaked in1980s


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ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT

Now the concern is global warming

(carbon gasses emitted by all

hydrocarbon burning) The Kyoto agreement requires all

signatories to reduce carbon emissions in

stages until 2050 (UK by 60%)


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OECD

AFRICA

MID EASTASIA

FORM USSR

CHINA

L&S AMER

NON OECD EUROPE

10.96

0.89

6.331.14

7.78

2.57

1.98

4.37

PER CAPITA CO2EMISSIONS IN TONNES


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PROBLEM

Currently 80% of all energy comes from fossilfuels.

Global energy demand is expected to doubleby 2050.

Environmental and availability issues wouldsuggestthat fossil fuel consumption should halve

by 2050 If the above is accepted then fossil fuels will

only contribute 20% of energy by 2050.


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OPTIONS

Savings and efficiency 20%

Fossil fuels 20%

Hydroelectricity < 5%

Biomass


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PROBLEM

At the most optimistic,

there is a 25% energygap by 2050.


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PROBLEM

RISING FOSSIL FUEL PRICES COULDDESTABILISE WORLD ECONOMIES WORLD RECESSION SAVES FUEL

THE CHINESE HAVE REPLACED THE USAAS THE FINANCIAL DRIVERS OF THEWORLD ECONOMY

INTERNATIONAL COMPETITION FORFOSSIL FUELS COULD BREED POLITICALINSTABILITY AND TERRORISM

FOSSIL FUELS IN POLITICALLY UNSTABLE

TERRITORIES (INVESTMENT?)


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PROBLEM UK

NORTH SEA GAS


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PROBLEM UK

THE GRID!!!

KYOTO???????


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UK NUCLEAR

CORWM

DESPERATE SHORTAGE OF TECHNICALCAPACITY

INTERNATIONAL MARKET FOR ENERGYPLANTS WILL BE EXTREMELYCOMPETITIVE (>160 NUCLEAR PLANTS ONORDER)

NON CARBON PRODUCING ELECTRICITYGENERATION ON A VAST SCALE THEONLY SOLUTION (HYDROGEN)


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CONCLUSIONS

Investment decisions are needed in the next 2-3

years (Number 10 has promised a nuclear decision

in this session of Parliament) The biggest obstacle to efficient energy use is

conflicting Government bureaucracies

To implement an energy strategy we require an

non departmental Energy Agency

Otherwise..

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When the Lights Go Out