What’s the Deal?

Victor Reis

+

(with Lessons from Science Based Stockpile Stewardship)

Outline

• What is SciDAC

• What is GNEP

• An Example of where Simulation really mattered:•Stockpile Stewardship & ASCI

• GNEP and SciDAC

Research funded under the SciDAC program must address the interdisciplinary problems inherent in ultrascale computing, problems that cannot be addressed by a single investigator or small group of investigators. The latter are typically funded by the core research programs.

Part of DOE’s Office of Science- SC

Science/Problems/Interdisciplinary/Ultrascale Computing

SC Research Portfolio: Critical Questions that need Answers

•Can we predict the effects of cracking, aging and fatigue on materials?

•Can we improve the efficiency and specificity of the catalysts that produce

the materials of the modern world?

•Can we predict the structure and function of proteins from a knowledge of the DNA

sequence?

•Can we reliably predict the evolution of the earth's regional climates decades and

centuries into the future?

•Can we control the instabilities that lead to the loss of power in fusion devices?

•Can we design more efficient heavy-ion accelerators for inertial fusion?

•Can we design more powerful particle accelerators for high-energy physics?

•Is the Standard Model of particle physics complete?

Possible relation to GNEP

….my Administration has announced a bold new proposal called the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership. Under this partnership, America will work with nations that have advanced civilian nuclear energy programs, such as France, Japan, and Russia. Together, we will develop and deploy innovative, advanced reactors and new methods to recycle spent nuclear fuel. This will allow us to produce more energy, while dramatically reducing the amount of nuclear waste and eliminating the nuclear byproducts that unstable regimes or terrorists could use to make weapons.

President George W. BushRadio Address: February 18, 2006

This morning, I want to speak to you about one part of this initiative: our plans to expand the use of safe and clean nuclear power. Nuclear power generates large amounts of low-cost electricity without emitting air pollution or greenhouse gases.

What is GNEP?

GNEP Goals

Lots of Nuclear Power(1000 ~2000 GWyr by 2050)

ReduceProliferation

Risk

• Spent Fuel is an asset to be managed – not a waste.

• Global Issues require global solutions

GNEP Principles:

GNEP Has Three Simultaneous Goals

Dispose of radioactive

waste

U.S. Policy Change: recycling by“fuel cycle” states

Fuel Leasing

Fuel Cycle States Reactor (Partner) States

Fuel

Spent Fuel

Key Non-proliferation Element of GNEP is Fuel Leasing

• Should make “commercial” sense

• Consistent with Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

GNEP Fuel Leasing Principles:

• Encourage expansion of nuclear power

An Early Suggestion for Fuel Leasing

H. Bethe

“The Necessity of Fission Power” Scientific American 1976.

“An important additional safeguard would be to prevent the proliferation of nuclear chemical-processing plants since it is from those plans rather than from reactors that fissionable material could be diverted. A good proposal is that the chemical processing be centralized in plants for an entire region… Another approach would be to have the country supplying the reactor lease the fuel to the customer country with the requirement that the used fuel be returned” .

Possible Fuel Leasing Configuration

Partner StateReactor

ORE

Fuel Cycle State

Separate

Fast Reactor

Thermal Reactor

Repository

Fuel SpentFuel

Fuel

EnrichedUranium

Recycle

Repository

Countries Approached by U.S. to be possible Fuel Cycle States

France – active follow-upJapan – active follow-upUnited Kingdom (In midst of Government Energy Study)Russia – active follow-upChina - follow up May 22-23, 2006

~ 100 Countries briefed at International Atomic Energy Agency

Science Attaches briefed in DC: Russia, UK, France, China, Japan, S. Korea, Canada, Italy, Switzerland, Finland, Germany, Australia, South Africa, Netherlands, Brazil, Argentina, Indonesia, Turkey, Greece, Croatia, Norway, Nigeria, Israel, Viet Nam

Detailed Discussion with Canada, South Korea

GNEP Process Just Beginning

International Response Positive

Open to discussions with all interested states.

GNEP Approach Consists of Multiple Elements

• “Harmonize” Country Policies and Strategies• Common Vision• Compatible Country Strategies

• Develop Cooperative Programs • Scientific Research• Technology Demonstrations• Personnel Exchange

• Develop Fuel Cycle Regime• Commercial Deals• Fuel Banks• Interim Storage

Build on Generation 4, AFCICurrent bi-lateral & multilateral agreements.

Proposed GNEP Strategy for U.S.

Expand LWR Export (L)WR

Spent Fuel Management

Yucca Mountain (1)

Disposition =Spent Fuel - (U+Cesium/Strontium+ Actinides)

Small Reactors

NP-2010/Energy Policy Act

UREX +

Fast Burner Reactors(Pyroprocessing)

RecycleNo separated PlutoniumLittle Transuranic waste“No liquid process waste

Burt Richter

AFCI

24 stage 2-cm Centrifugal Contactor in Hot Cell

Separation Technology Based Upon Centrifugal Contactors

• Continuous • Flexible• “No” liquid waste

Chopping and Nitric Acid Dissolution

UREX Process

Decay Storage of Cs & Sr

CCD-PEG

TRUEXProcess

ProductConversion

Nitric AcidRe-dissolution

Blending and Product

Conversion

High-LevelWaste Form(Vitrification)

Storage/Disposal of Remaining U3O8

Uranium

U3O8

Powder

ProductConversion &

Packaging

Technetium TRU + Fission Products

TRU + Remaining Fission Products

Cs/Sr

TRU + Lanthanides

.

TRU and Lanthanides Oxides

TRU

Cladding Hullsand Iodine

Lanthanides

FissionProducts

Well understood &demonstrated, fewissues associated with scale-up

Understood &demonstrated atlab-scale/prototypicenvironment

U3O8 for fuel fabrication

Still significant R&D, not well understood & not demonstratedat any scale

TALSPEAKProcess

AdvancedBurner Reactor

Advanced FuelFabrication

LWR Spent Fuel

Example GNEP Fuel Cycle Flow Sheet

Possible Implementation Approach

Phase 1 Phase 2

Issues With US GNEP

Cost of Separation

Transuranic Fuel

Cost of Burner Reactor

Demonstrations

Robust R&D

(Especially Simulations!)

An Integrated Approach:• Domestic/International• DOE: NE/RW/SC/NA• DOE Labs (9)• Industry• Universities

A DOE Leadership and Management Challenge

• Continue Moratorium on Nuclear Weapons Testing

• Seek a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty

"establish a stewardship program to ensure the preservation of the core intellectual and technical competencies of the U.S. in nuclear weapons."

• And Direct the DOE to:

July 3, 1993

President Clinton:

Stockpile Stewardship: The Problem

Maintain U.S. (old) nuclear weapons without nuclear testing ~ Simulation!!! ASCI - Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative

• Speed ~ No of operations/run time of problemResolution - size of featureDimension - 3DPhysics fidelity - a lot

Run time~ 2 weeks

~ 100 teraflops (100,000 gigaflops)

Stockpile Stewardship (ASCI) Simulation Goal:

By 2004 (Designers with test experience retired – need for validation)

• Visualizing of results - interact with designers brains

• Academic alliances ~ like SciDAC- fill the intellectual pipeline- validation on “testable” large multidisciplinary problems

Then:

Speed in Gigaflops

DOE Defense Programs FY ‘94 Advanced Computing Budget $10M

Computing Speed in June 1993 -

ASCITeam

Livermore

IBM

Equivalent Teams At Los Alamos & Sandia

TOP 500 list - November 2005 Speed in gigaflops

Stockpile Continues

To be Certified

Basis for “new”

Weapon & Complex

Lessons from ASCI

• Successful simulation enterprise requires focus and sustainability, i.e. must be owned by an enduring institution – national lab– some university ASCI centers have done well at a smaller scale.– industry?

• Core group must own mission, design role, applications development and platform / environment.

• Key milestones must provide program value.

• Focus on substantial “well-posed” problems. • Science must be integrated from the start

• Traditional “validation” does not work well when codes, methods and fundamental understanding undergo rapid evolution.

More ASCI lessons

• Hierarchy from mission need to application requirements to framework support.

• Design, computation and validation must be an integrated process.

• No such thing as “full physics.” Must be able to “tune” level of fidelity and dimensionality. Design requires 1000’s of runs simplifying some aspects to do design tradeoffs.

• University partnerships important – ideas, algorithms, models, codes, and of course people.

• It’s hard enough with a clear mission and one office controlling resources and providing direction.

“SciDAC follows these Principles” Michael Strayer

GNEP and Simulation/SciDAC

• Critical GNEP Problems• DOE Management Model• Funding Model• Issues

GNEP / SciDAC Potential problems to be solved

• Materials (Actinide fuels)• Integrated separations process waste forms and

global repository performance• “Revolution” in Reactor design

– Performance Based Design• Fast• Thermal

– Certification & Licensing– International Safety & Security Standards

A rigorous solution of the earthquake response problem presents a major simulation challenge

Fault RuptureWave propagation

Structural response

Utility

Fun

dam

enta

l und

erst

andi

ng

U t i l i t y

Bohr(basic)

Pasteur(use inspired)

Edison(applied)

*from “Pasteur’s Quadrant” by Donald Stokes, 1997

YES

NO

NO YES

SCIENCE DEFENSE PROGRAMS

NUCLEAR ENGINEERING

GNEP?

Management Topology in DOE for GNEP/SciDAC

BES Science Based Stockpile Stewardship

Nuclear Power2010

SciDAC

Possible R&D funding and management models• “Traditional” competitive peer review in basic sciences:

Purpose is the broad advancement of scientific knowledge. Broad science goals set by program office in close collaboration with peer community, open solicitation, competitive peer review selection, periodic peer review performance evaluation.

• DARPA (Circa 1990) Purpose is focused acceleration of technologies to revolutionize national security practices. Agenda developed collaboratively with community leadership. Program manager selects projects and monitors/manages results to achieve DARPA goals.

• Stockpile stewardshipPurpose is to maintain nuclear deterrence without testing. President set the agenda. Goals and objectives set in collaboration with laboratory management, lab scientific leadership, and DoD. 100% mission ownership by national laboratory / production plant. Strict DOE and laboratory line management authority/accountability/funding to achieve program goals.

• ASCI: Purpose is to replace underground testing with computational methods as basis for stockpile certification basis. DOE program initiative. Goals and objectives set in collaboration with laboratory technical leadership, industry partners and university computational science leadership. 100% national lab end use mission ownership, but industry has 50% share in computer systems development. Commercial contracts for hardware development/acquisition; visualization and system software. DOE/ national lab line management authority/accountability/funding for major code projects and supporting software development. University Alliance program similar to “traditional”

Comments

• International Program– Change the Post Cold War World– Attack Climate Change

• Role of Industry– Energy & Health Care the big markets

• Role of DOE– Intersects with every part of department

A vision without action is a dream, Action without vision is a nightmare

Japanese Proverb

行動を伴わない構想は夢であり、構想の無い行動は悪夢である。

日本の格言

A time for action!

“ For glory gives herself only to those who have always dreamed of her.”

“You have to be fast on your feet and adaptive or else a strategy is useless.”

Charles de Gaulle

Global Nuclear Energy Partnership

To have friends coming in from afar, how delightful!

When the tide rises, boats float higher

Admiral Zheng He

Summary: Nuclear Energy is in a Crisis

Danger

Opportunity

GNEP represents a unique opportunity for international leadership, shaping the future, an organizing principle for 21st century civilization - “Atoms for Peace! ”

Nuclear Technology will always be in crisis

To the making of these fateful decisions, the United States pledges before you--and therefore before the world--its determination to help solve the fearful atomic dilemma--to devote its entire heart and mind to find the way by which the miraculous inventiveness of man shall not be dedicated to his death, but consecrated to his life.

Dwight D. Eisenhower “Atoms for Peace” December 8, 1953

Global Nuclear Energy Partnership – Role of United States