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© Marine Operations and Assurance Management Solutions Ltd
Martin L Shaw MBA C Eng C Mar Eng FI Mar EST AFNI
Managing DirectorMarine Operations and Assurance Management Solutions Ltd
What’s Good and What’s Bad for Tanker Operators?
Tanker Operator Conference
Hamburg April 2016
© Marine Operations and Assurance Management Solutions Ltd
Outline
• The good news
• The bad news…new regulations
• The world
• The oil industry
• The customer
• The ship operators challenges– The system
– Is there another system?
© Marine Operations and Assurance Management Solutions Ltd
Tanker industry
© Marine Operations and Assurance Management Solutions Ltd
Good News?
© Marine Operations and Assurance Management Solutions Ltd
Fleet Growth
Source Intertanko
© Marine Operations and Assurance Management Solutions Ltd
Good News and Bad News?
ISMCode
New Vessels Double Hull
Development of Port State and Vetting
Erika/Prestige
Tightening of SOLAS MARPOL STCW
ISPS
SECA’s
Piracy
Building Boom
Low Freight Rates
TMSA1 TMSA2
Ballast waterShip Efficiency
GHGMLCEtc
IGSCOWSteering GearSBT etc.
© Marine Operations and Assurance Management Solutions Ltd
The world
© Marine Operations and Assurance Management Solutions Ltd
World growth, oil growth
• Growth Forecasts reduced• Brexit• Main oil growth is in transportation-electric
cars
© Marine Operations and Assurance Management Solutions Ltd
The oil Industry
© Marine Operations and Assurance Management Solutions Ltd
IEA Supply/Demand Balance
© Marine Operations and Assurance Management Solutions Ltd
Oil Price from IEA
• Recent OPEC Deal?• Subsequent increases• Iran locking in higher
production after sanctions• Will the OPEC deal turn the
clock back?
© Marine Operations and Assurance Management Solutions Ltd
© Marine Operations and Assurance Management Solutions Ltd
If you’ve got it pump it!
© Marine Operations and Assurance Management Solutions Ltd
Don’t forget the future of the planet!!
And what about energy security!!!
© Marine Operations and Assurance Management Solutions Ltd
The customer
© Marine Operations and Assurance Management Solutions Ltd
Upstream Midstream Downstream
Oil industry dimensions
• Oil super major? .. XOM, Shell, BP
• Oil major + Chevron, Total, Statoil, Conoco Phillips
• E&P’s ….. Premier, Talisman etc
• Refiners …... Inios, Valero etc
• Traders…...Glencore, Trafigura etc
• Integrated / sector specific
• IOC or NOC?!!!
Mar
kets
Mar
kets
Mar
kets
Mar
kets
© Marine Operations and Assurance Management Solutions Ltd
Oil major earnings
© Marine Operations and Assurance Management Solutions Ltd
Oil producers
Data source Forbes
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Saudi Aramco
Gazprom
NIOC
Exxon Mobil
Rosneft
Petrochina
BP
Shell
Petromex
Kuwait
Chevron
Abu Dhabi
Total
Petrobras
Qatar
Lukoil
Sonatrach
Iraq
PDVSA
Conoco Phillips
Statoil
ISIS
Oil Majors? 2015 Top Producers
© Marine Operations and Assurance Management Solutions Ltd
Remember the 70’s
Oil Major Owned36%
Oil Major T/C52%
Spot12%
Oil Major share of tanker tonnage 1970
Oil Major Owned
Oil Major T/C
Spot
Data Source Martin Stopford Maritime Economics
© Marine Operations and Assurance Management Solutions Ltd
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
TeekayMOLNITC
EuronavBahri
AETChina VLCC
FrontlineSCF
MaranNYK
COSCODynacom
Ocean TankersChina Shipping
OSGMaersk
SKMinerva
NaviosOman
BWGener8
ThenamarisDHT
TsakosFormosa
SCITORM
BP Shipping
Tanker Owners Top 30 2015
MDWT in service
MDW building
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-5
-3
-2
Tanker Owners Top 30
+2
+2
+2
-1
-1
=
=
=
=
+5
-4
+1
+3
-4
-5
-5
-3
-2
-2
+9
++
Source Tanker Operator Magazine
© Marine Operations and Assurance Management Solutions Ltd
Biggest Charterers
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Unipec
Shell
Vitol
BP
Chevron
Litasco (Lukoil)
Exxon Mobil
CSSA (Total)
ST Shipping
Indian Oil Corporation
Repsol
Clearslake
CNR
Socar
Trafigura
Petrochina
Petrobras
Reliance
Bahri
PTT (Thailand)
Number of Fixtures ( Data source Potens)
2015 Dirty Fixtures
© Marine Operations and Assurance Management Solutions Ltd
What the charterer wants?
• Safe
• Reliable
– On time-no stock outs or field shutdowns
– No breakdowns
– No contamination
• Efficient
– Good rate
– Load and discharge full stem
– Good communications
© Marine Operations and Assurance Management Solutions Ltd
The ship operators challenges
© Marine Operations and Assurance Management Solutions Ltd
Other Traders100+
Tankers(10,000+)
Tanker Companies (1,000+)
Port s (1000+)
OCIMF Members
100+
Other Charterer /Terminal Vetting
Organisations 50-100
Other Industry Organisations
(10+)
Other Port State
MOU’s (10+)
Other Port
States (100+)
Recognised Organisations (RO’s)/Class (30+)
IMO Member States (170+)
Tanker Regulatory SystemIMO
Flag state
RO/Class RO/Class
ShipbuilderDesign & Build
Port
Tanker
Requirements•Contract•Specification•Modifications
Feedback•Plans•Sea trial data•Certificates
Requirements•SOLAS•MARPOL
Requirements•Class Rules•Surveys
•Surveys•Certificates•Audits
Requirements•SOLAS•MARPOL•ISM
Company
IACS
•SOLAS•MARPOL•STCW•ISM
•Arrival Documents•Cargo Documents
•National Laws•Port Regulations•Terminal Regulations
Port State
MOU
Port State inspection Detention/Sanction
Feed
bac
k In
spec
tio
n D
eten
tio
n/S
anct
ion
Inspection Detention/Sanction
Targeting Data
Public Domain
Info
Ran
kin
gs, b
lack
listi
ng
OCIMF
Vetting Org
ICS
SIRE
SIRE Ship Inspector
SIRE Inspection
SIR
E In
spec
tio
n
Rep
ort
Req
uir
eme
nts
SIR
E V
IQ
Req
ues
t fo
r In
spec
tio
n
Operation
SIRE Inspection from initiating company
Owner Response
SIRE Reports
SOLAS,MARPOL,STCW,ISM
ICS CodesGuides
OCIMF CodesGuides
TMSA
InsuranceIndustry
Casualty Data
Terminal Feedback
TraderVetting Clause
Vetting Status Feedback
MaintainDesign
and Build
TMSA
Rankings, blacklisting
© Marine Operations and Assurance Management Solutions Ltd
Fantasy Industry
The dream
• Transparent markets
• Balanced market providing fair return for owners and economic transportation for charterers
• Single uniform standard across the globe
• Consistent compliance and enforcement
• No need for port state and vetting
The requirements
• No flags of convenience
• Transparent ownership and taxation
• Ship-owners committed to common standards
• No competition between flag states, class societies.
• Clean up and liability costs totally covered by international funds
• No overreaction by media and politicians.
• No traders.
• No state support for shipyards
• And you need to believe in…..
© Marine Operations and Assurance Management Solutions Ltd
Conclusions
• Healthy tanker rates?
• Incident rates and pollutions are low but the consequence of getting it wrong is even higher than it was
• Demand is uncertain with world growth, price, demand, energy security and climate change
• There are many customers– National oil companies are increasingly the main player
– IOC’s• Super majors, majors
• Traders
• E&P’s
• The balance has changed over 50 years but instead of big oil major fleets there are now big NOC fleets
• The industry is complex but what’s the alternative?