March 12, 2013

About the Mobility Plan

• Plans to year 2040 (27 years)

• Fiscally constrained by year and funding category

• Includes federally funded and regionally significant projects

• Must be in Mobility Plan to be eligible for the TIP

• Includes 8 counties, based on Air Quality, 2010 urbanized area (MPA), and PlanET (2003 MSA):

– Anderson – Blount – Jefferson – Knox

– Loudon – Roane – Sevier – Union

Major Changes to the Mobility Plan

• More Accessible – User-friendly format, organization, language

– Use of graphics / visualization

– Will be accompanied by an Executive Summary

• Reflects MAP-21 – Fewer, broader funding categories

– Performance measurement as a priority

• Includes 2010 Census data – New MPA based on 2010 Urbanized Areas

• Directly states major priorities (Ch 5)

• Includes HUD/EPA/USDOT Livability Principles

• Includes more extensive PlanET outreach

Overview of the TPO Planning Process

Areas Included in the Mobility Plan

Metropolitan Planning Area (MPA)

PlanET Region – 2003

Metropolitan Statistical Area

(MSA)

Air Quality “Non-Attainment

Areas

Mobility Plan Vision and Principles

• Vision for Our Region – Every corner of our region is connected by a system of transportation

choices that is efficient, reliable, affordable, and environmentally friendly.

• Principles in Support of Our Vision – Principle 1: Preserve and Manage

Preserving and managing the existing system is the highest priority. Capital investments should be directed based on function and need.

– Principle 2: Link Transportation and Land Use

Land uses impact the function of the transportation system and vice versa.

– Principle 3: Plan and Build for All Modes

As a region, we need to provide safe and secure mobility choices.

– Principle 4: Develop the Region’s Potential

Build on our strengths, and use a variety of transportation investments as an economic development tool.

Our Population is Growing Facts and Trends:

COUNTY Total Population Population Change (%)

1980 1990 2000 2010 80-90 90-00 00-10 80-10

Anderson 67,346 68,250 71,330 75,129 1.3 4.5 5.3 11.6

Blount 77,770 85,969 105,823 123,010 10.5 23.1 16.2 58.2

Jefferson 31,284 33,016 44,294 51,407 5.5 34.2 16.1 64.3

Knox 319,694 335,749 382,032 432,226 5.0 13.8 13.1 35.2

Loudon 28,553 31,255 39,086 48,556 9.5 25.1 24.2 70.1

Roane 48,425 47,227 51,910 54,181 -2.5 9.9 4.4 11.9

Sevier 41,418 51,043 71,170 89,889 23.2 39.4 26.3 117.0

Union 11,707 13,694 17,808 19,109 17.0 30.0 7.3 63.2

Region 626,197 666,203 783,453 893,507 6.4 17.6 14.0 42.7

Our Population is Growing Older

• Population age 65+ is 13.8% in 2010

• Projected to grow to 19.2% in 2040

Facts and Trends:

Our Population is Spreading Out

Urbanized Area (brown = land area, blue = population)

• Land area grew by 1,217%

• Population grew by 378%

Facts and Trends:

We are Mobile and Dependant on Our Cars

• 84% of commuters drive alone

• 94% of commuters rely on a car (alone + carpool)

• Over 25% of workers in Anderson, Blount, Jefferson, Roane, Sevier, and Union Counties commute to Knox County

Facts and Trends:

Congestion is Growing Facts and Trends:

RANK COUNTY LOCATION 2000 AADT

2010 AADT

% Growth from 2000 to 2010

1 Knox Lovell Rd (SR 131) - south of I-40 16,617 40,200 142%

2 Sevier Veterans Blvd (SR 449) - north of Teaster Ln 10,461 22,804 118%

3 Knox Callahan Dr - west of I-75 10,686 20,629 93%

4 Sevier Veterans Blvd (SR 449) - north of Jayell Rd 9,407 17,662 88%

5 Knox Schaad Rd - east of Oak Ridge Hwy 8,539 14,575 71%

6 Blount Old Knoxville Hwy (SR 33) - north of Hunt Rd 9,423 15,754 67%

7 Knox Middlebrook Pk (SR 169) - east of Lovell Rd 9,757 15,844 62%

8 Knox James White Pkwy (SR 71) - at Tennessee River 10,027 15,846 58%

9 Knox Lovell Rd (SR 131) - north of I-40 9,923 15,575 57%

10 Roane US 70 - west of Pine Ridge Rd 8,343 12,760 53%

11 Knox Walker Springs Rd - north of Kingston Pk 6,849 10,445 53%

12 Blount US 411 - south of Calderwood Hwy 11,335 17,209 52%

13 Sevier Boyds Creek Hwy (SR 338) - east of Chapman Hwy 9,663 13,987 45%

14 Knox Pellissippi Pkwy (I-140) - south of I-40 40,873 58,563 43%

15 Blount Lamar Alexander Pkwy (US 321) - west of Tuckaleechee Tr 13,414 19,046 42%

16 Knox Hardin Valley Rd - west of Pellissippi Pkwy 7,520 10,492 40%

17 Knox Emory Rd (SR 131) - east of I-75 16,893 23,558 39%

18 Knox I-40 - west of Alcoa Hwy 94,341 129,746 38%

19 Knox Washington Pk - north of I-640 12,964 17,806 37%

20 Knox Pellissippi Pkwy (SR 162) - south of Oak Ridge Hwy 33,176 44,969 36%

A Look at Our Transit Service (FY 2012)

• KAT - 3.6 million trips

• ETHRA - 250,000 trips

• Knox County CAC Transit - 202,000 trips

Facts and Trends:

Outreach for the Mobility Plan

• Two regional forum series (with PlanET)

• Region-wide statistically valid survey (with PlanET)

• Three working groups series (with PlanET)

• Two rounds of Meeting in a Box (with PlanET)

• Two rounds of Mindmixer (with PlanET)

• Mobility Plan public surveys – During development

– During comment period

• Offer to present to local organizations

• Several opportunities to comment during Technical Committee and Executive Board meetings

Priorities for the Future

• Incorporating Land Use and Transportation

• Enhancing Communities with Transportation Investments

• Improving Personal Health in our Communities

• Improving Mobility for Aging Populations

• Improving Safety and Efficiency in the Transportation System

• Measuring the Performance of Our System

Revenues and Expenditures

Total Over All Horizon Years, 2013 – 2040

Funding Category Fed % State/

Local % Carry Over New Revenue Total Revenue Expenditures

Balance (Carry Over)

CMAQ 80 20 $0 $99,711,810 $99,711,810 $96,585,972 $3,125,837

HPP 80 20 $15,000,000 $0 $15,000,000 $12,117,569 $2,882,431

LOCAL (includes match) 0 100 $0 $478,616,687 $478,616,687 $476,784,136 $1,832,551

STATE (includes match) 0 100 $0 $757,809,755 $757,809,755 $559,211,882 $198,597,873

STP 80 20 $0 $1,076,887,547 $1,076,887,547 $1,062,464,588 $14,422,958

L-STP 80 20 $34,000,000 $378,904,878 $412,904,878 $386,208,249 $26,696,628

NHPP 80 20 $0 $2,113,890,370 $2,113,890,370 $1,649,734,015 $464,156,355

HSIP 90 10 $0 $279,193,068 $279,193,068 $269,105,216 $10,087,852

Subtotal $49,000,000 $5,185,014,114 $5,234,014,114 $4,512,211,628 $721,802,486

Plus Other Funding:

TA (active projects only) 80 20 $0 $39,884,724 $39,884,724 $35,021,655 $4,863,068

TOTAL $49,000,000 $5,224,898,838 $5,273,898,838 $4,547,233,283 $726,665,555

Remaining Timeline

• FHWA and FTA Review through March 18th

• Public Comment through April 1st

• In April, Tech (16th) and Board (24th) Action

• FHWA and FTA make conformity finding

• EPA responds

• Deadline is June 1st

Air Quality Conformity Determination for the 2040 Mobility Plan

March 12, 2013

Overview of Current A/Q Status in Knoxville Region

• Maintenance Area for 1997 8-Hour Ozone Standard – Anderson, Blount, Jefferson, Knox,

Loudon, Sevier, and portion of Cocke

• Nonattainment Area for 1997 Annual PM2.5 Standard – Anderson, Blount, Knox, Loudon,

and portion of Roane

• Nonattainment Area for 2006 Daily PM2.5 Standard – Anderson, Blount, Knox, Loudon,

and portion of Roane

• Nonattainment Area for 2008 8-Hour Ozone Standard – Blount, Knox, and portion of

Anderson

Transportation Conformity Background

• Air Quality/Transportation Conformity is the Link between Air Quality and Transportation Planning

• Ensures that federal funds will not be spent on projects that cause or contribute to any new violations of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS); increase the frequency or severity of NAAQS violations; or delay timely attainment of the NAAQS.

• All Transportation Plans must be demonstrated to “Conform” before they can be adopted.

• If Conformity is not demonstrated then Region can enter a “Conformity Lapse” period that can affect implementation of major roadway projects

Transportation Conformity

Air Quality Planning

Transportation Planning

State Implementation Plan (SIP)

Regional Mobility Plan and Transportation Improvement Program (TIP)

How is Conformity Demonstrated?

• Conformity is demonstrated through a technical analysis using the Travel Demand Forecasting Model and EPA Emission Factor Model (currently MOBILE6, due to be replaced by MOVES)

• Travel Demand Model provides estimates of Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) for each future analysis year based on project implementation and forecasted population growth.

• MOBILE6 provides emission rates based on local conditions and speed estimates from travel demand model.

• VMT (miles) * Emission Rate (grams/mile) = Total Emissions

• Emissions Compared against “Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets” (MVEB) – must be less than MVEB for each Analysis Year to demonstrate Conformity.

Conformity Analysis for 2040 KRMP • Required Analysis Years:

– 2014 (PM2.5) – 2015 (Ozone) – 2024 – 2034 – 2040

• Pollutants Analyzed: – Ozone consists of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC)

and Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) – PM2.5 consists of “Direct PM2.5 “ (diesel exhaust,

brake/tire wear) and Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx)

• Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets: – Ozone 2024 MVEB:

– PM 2.5 2009 MVEB:

Pollutant 2024 MVEB (tons/day)

VOC 25.19

NOx 36.32

Pollutant 2009 MVEB (tons/year)

PM2.5 283.63

NOx 18,024.90

Conformity Analysis Results

• Emissions Analysis shows that projected emissions resulting from Plan implementation are below MVEB levels for all Analysis Years – therefore Conformity is Demonstrated

• MOBILE6 projects significant short-term reduction in emission rates, particularly VOC & NOx

• Increases in VMT begin to overcome these in long term however.

Air Quality Issues on the Horizon

• Transition to EPA MOVES Model for Conformity Determinations from now on – Main Issue is that current MVEBs were developed with MOBILE6

• Conformity Determination for 2014-2017 Transportation Improvement Program – Can rely on Mobility Plan Conformity Analysis unless Major New Projects or Change in Project Scopes

• GOOD NEWS – Clean Data Determination for PM2.5 – Starting “Redesignation Request” Process w/TDEC to become Attainment for PM2.5

• BAD NEWS – New PM2.5 Standard – Lowered Annual Standard from 15 mg/m3 to 12 mg/m3 . Designations coming in December 2014 – Currently just above the standard at 12.3 mg/m3