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22 Labor Market Improving but Still Weak
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Wells Fargo EconomicsThe Long Road AheadEd KashmarekEconomist
Wells Fargo Institutional Retirement and Trust Client ForumOmaha, NEJune 7, 2011
© 2011 Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. All rights reserved.
Agenda
Labor Market
Inflation/Mortgage Rates
Housing Market
Credit Quality
Lending
Manufacturing
Consumers
Economic Outlook
Budget Deficit/Debt
Questions
33
Labor Market Improving but Still Weak
Change in Total Nonfarm Payroll
(800)(700)(600)(500)(400)(300)(200)(100)
-100200300400500
4-09 10-09 4-10 10-10 4-11
000s
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Estimated Level of Monthly Job Gains Needed to AbsorbLabor Force Growth
United States Employment GrowthX axis: Y/Y J ob Growth (Ths.), Y axis: Avg. Hourly Earnings ($/Hr)
Prof/Bus Svcs.Ed/Hlth Svcs.
Construction
Trade/Trans/Ut
Leis/Hosp
Financial
Info. Svcs.
Mfg.Other Svcs.
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
-200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
April 2010 - April 2011
Overall Unemployment Rate
9.0
15.9
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
15.0
18.0
4-01 4-02 4-03 4-04 4-05 4-06 4-07 4-08 4-09 4-10 4-11
Percentage
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Headline
Augmented*
*Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
82.6
100.298.8
80
90
100
110
120
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
HousingNon-housingTotal
Employment Growth - Housing vs. Non-Housing
2.1
1.0%
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
4/30/2008 4/30/2009 4/30/2010 4/30/2011-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Wells Fargo Economics
Payroll and Hourly Earnings GrowthY/Y%
Payrolls (R)
Avg. Hourly Earnings (L)
Y/Y%
-1.1
1.0%
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
4/30/2008 4/30/2009 4/30/2010 4/30/2011-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Wells Fargo Economics
Payroll and Hourly Earnings GrowthY/Y%
Payrolls (R)
Real Avg. Hourly Earnings (L)
Y/Y%
3688
7793
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Apr-76 Apr-81 Apr-86 Apr-91 Apr-96 Apr-01 Apr-06 Apr-11
Source: Department of Labor
Continuing Jobless ClaimsThs., NSA
Recessions
Total UnemploymentBenefits*
Continuing Claims
* Includes continuing claims, emergency unemployment compensation, extended benefits
Non-farm Productivity Changes
0.31.0
2.5 2.6 2.2 1.9
0.5-0.4
0.8
2.7
4.8
6.5
4.0
2.92.0
1.3
6.7
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
07-Q1 08-Q1 09-Q1 10-Q1 11-Q1
Y-Y%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
85
90
95
100
105
110
07-Q1 07-Q3 08-Q1 08-Q3 09-Q1 09-Q3 10-Q1 10-Q3 11-Q1
Components of ProductivityIndex
Output
HoursWorked
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Unit Labor Cost Changes
3.64.2
3.1 2.7
-0.6 -0.1
-2.2
-3.5-2.9
-1.9-1.0
-0.2
1.2
-4-3-2-10123456
08-Q1 08-Q3 09-Q1 09-Q3 10-Q1 10-Q3 11-Q1
Y-Y%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
1414
Inflation Risingbut Core Still Low
InflationYear-over-Year Percent Change
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
01 03 05 07 09 11-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
CPI : Apr @ 3.2%PPI : Apr @ 6.8%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Apr-93 Apr-95 Apr-97 Apr-99 Apr-01 Apr-03 Apr-05 Apr-07 Apr-09 Apr-11
Source: Commerce Department
Core PCE InflationY/Y%
Below the Fed'scomfort zone
Fed Funds Futures5-31-11
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
5/31/2011 9/30/2011 1/31/2012 5/31/2012 9/28/2012 1/31/2013Source: CBOT, WF Economics
Yield range last 52 weeks
I mplied yield
Mortgage RatesPercent
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2002 2004 2006 2008 20103%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%30-Year FRM: May-26 @ 4.60%15-Year FRM: May-26 @ 3.78%1-Year ARM: May-26 @ 3.11%
1919
Housing MarketMixed Signals
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
4-08 10-08 4-09 10-09 4-10 10-10 4-113.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Source: Commerce Department; National Association of Realtors; Wells Fargo Economics
Home SalesThs, SAAR Mil, SAAR
New (L)
Existing (R)
Existing Home Inventory
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
Apr-02
Apr-03
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
MonthsSupply
Source: National Association of Realtors
Total
Existing Home Median Price
-5.0%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Apr-01 Apr-03 Apr-05 Apr-07 Apr-09 Apr-11
Y/Y%
Source: National Association of Realtors
2323
Housing Starts and Permits
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
4-01 4-02 4-03 4-04 4-05 4-06 4-07 4-08 4-09 4-10 4-11
Source: Commerce Dept.
SAAR000's
Housing Starts
Building Permits
Mortgage Applications and Home SalesPurchase Applications (Index) vs. Home Sales (Million SAAR)
150
200
250
300
Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-113
4
5
6
7
Mortgage Purchase Apps: Apr @ 182.70 (Left Axis)Existing Home Sales: Apr @ 5.05 (Right Axis)
Why Are Home Sales So Constrained? High Unemployment Tight Mortgage Standards Buyers Fear
Further price declines More foreclosures entering market
Sellers Can’t Sell Current Home No demand at desired price Low appraisals Already underwater (28%)
2626
Credit QualityImproving But Challenging
2727
Total Loan Delinquency RatesPercent
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
85 90 95 00 05 100%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Total Loans: Q1 @ 6.3%
2828
Credit Card Loan Delinquency RatesPercent
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
92 95 98 01 04 07 103%
4%
5%
6%
7%Credit Card: Q1 @ 3.9%
2929
Residential Loan Delinquency RatesYear-over-Year Basis Point Change
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
92 95 98 01 04 07 10-100
0
100
200
300
400
500Residential Real Estate: Q1 @ -84.0 bp
3030
Loan Delinquency Rates
-300 -200 -100 0 100
Non-credit Card
Agriculture
Residential Real Estate
Total Real Estate
Total Loans
Total Consumer
Commercial Real Estate
Commercial & Industrial
Credit Card
Y/Y ChangeQ/Q Change
Basis Point Change, Q1 2011
Delinquency Plus Foreclosure RatePercent of All Mortgage Loans Delinquent or in Foreclosure, NSA
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
80 85 90 95 00 05 104%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%Delinquency Plus Foreclosure Rate (US): Q1 @ 12.31%
Foreclosure RatePercent of All Mortgage Loans Entering Foreclosure, NSA
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
80 85 90 95 00 05 100.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%Foreclosure Rate: Q1 @ 1.08%
22.04
26.31
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1
U.S. Sub-prime Mortgage Delinquencies
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association; Wells Fargo Economics
Percent delinquent ARM
Fixed
4.59
22.04
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1
U.S. Fixed-rate Mortgage Delinquencies
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association; Wells Fargo Economics
Percent delinquent Sub-prime
Prime
2.59
10.53
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1
U.S. Fixed-rate Mortgage Foreclosures
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association; Wells Fargo Economics
Percent in foreclosure at end of quarter, NSASub-prime
Prime
2.59
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1
U.S. Fixed-rate Mortgage Foreclosures
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association; Wells Fargo Economics
Percent in foreclosure at end of quarter, NSA Prime
BankruptciesThousands, 3-Month Ending, Seasonally-adjusted Annual Rate
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
00 02 04 06 08 100
15
30
45
60
75
90
Total: Q1 @ 1,501 (Left Axis)Personal: Q1 @ 1,451 (Left Axis)Business: Q1 @ 50 (Right Axis)
Household Debt - Consumer & MortgageAs a Percent of Disposable Personal Income
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 1040%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
Household Debt: Q4 @ 108.6%
Household Debt - Consumer & MortgageAs a Percent of Disposable Personal Income
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 100%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%Consumer Credit: Q4 @ 21.2%Home Mortgages: Q4 @ 87.5%
4040
LendingRemains Constrained
Loan Growth and Willingness to LendWillingness to Lend=Net Percent of Banks Loan Growth=Y/Y%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10-30%
-24%
-18%
-12%
-6%
0%
6%
12%
18%
24%
30%Willingness to Lend: Q1 @ 28.8% (Left Axis)Consumer Loan Growth: Q1 @ -6.7% (Right Axis)
More Willing
Less Willing
4242
Consumer Loans OutstandingYr/Yr Percent Change, Break Adjusted, Seasonally Adjusted
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Credit Card: May-18 @ -14.7%Non-Credit Card: May-18 @ -2.5%
4343
Net Charge-offsBillions
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
85 90 95 00 05 10$0
$2
$4
$6
$8Credit Card Loans: Q1 @ $11.4 (Left Axis)Non-Credit Card Loans: Q1 @ $2.5 (Right Axis)
4444
C&I Loans OutstandingY-o-Y Percent Change, Break Adjusted, Seasonally Adjusted
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
C&I: May-18 @ 3.4%
4545
ManufacturingStrong, but Losing
Momentum?
4646
ISM Manufacturing
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Index
Source: Institute for Supply Management
4747
$65
$70
$75
$80
$85
$90
$95
$100
$105
$110
$115
5/20/10 8/20/10 11/20/10 2/20/11 5/20/1168
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
Source: Federal Reserve; Bloomberg; Wells Fargo Economics
Oil and the Dollar$/BBL Index
WTI (L)
Trade-weightedDollar (R)
4848
US Manufacturing Employment GrowthYr/Yr Percent Change vs. 3 Month Percent Change, Annual Rate
-18%
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11-18%
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
3-Month Annual Rate: Apr @ 3.5%Year/Year Change: Apr @ 1.7%
4949
ConsumersBetter But Still Not
Confident
60.8
25.3
47.343.2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
May-71 May-76 May-81 May-86 May-91 May-96 May-01 May-06 May-11
Consumer ConfidenceIndex
Source: Conference Board
Income ExpectationsPercent Expecting Increase in Incomes in Next 6 Months
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
80 85 90 95 00 05 105%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Income Expectations: J an @ 11.4%
Consumer Purchasing PlansPercent Planning to Buy in Next 6 Months, 12-M Moving Average
2.0%
2.4%
2.8%
3.2%
3.6%
4.0%
05 06 07 08 09 10 114.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
Home: J an @ 2.1% (Left Axis)Auto: J an @ 5.0% (Right Axis)
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
4/30/2007 4/30/2008 4/30/2009 4/30/2010 4/30/11
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Personal Consumption ExpendituresY/Y%
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
4/30/2007 4/30/2008 4/30/2009 4/30/2010 4/30/11
Source: Commerce Dept.
Personal IncomeY/Y%
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11
Source: BEA, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Personal SavingsBillions, SAAR
Home Prices vs. Consumer SpendingYear-over-Year Percent Change
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
74 79 84 89 94 99 04 09-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Existing Median SF Home Prices: Q1 @ -4.2% (L)Consumer Spending: Q1 @ 4.4% (R)
Correlations:1970-2011: 69%2002-2011: 76%
5757
Economic Growth and Outlook
Moderate Growth Continues
-0.7
0.6
-4.0
-6.8
-4.9
-0.7
1.6
5.03.7
1.72.6 3.1
1.8 2.02.8 2.9
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
2008.1 2009.1 2010.1 2011.1
HISTORY
FORECAST
Q/Q%ChangeReal GDP Annualized
Leading Economic Indicators
(1.2)(1.0)(0.8)(0.6)(0.4)(0.2)-0.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.6
4-08 10-08 4-09 10-09 4-10 10-10 4-11
MOM Pct Chg
-0.3
Source: The Conference Board
6060
Budget Deficit and DebtBig, Big Problems
6161
$(1,600)
$(1,400)
$(1,200)
$(1,000)
$(800)
$(600)
$(400)
$(200)
$-
$200
$400
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Source: CBO
Federal Budget Surplus/DeficitBillions
H F
Forecast based on President's Budget
6262
-30.3
-8.9
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Federal Budget Surplus/Deficit (% of GDP)
H F
Source: CBO; Economic Report of the President
World War II Forecast based on President's Budget
6363
62.1
108.6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Federal Debt (% of GDP)
H F
Source: CBO; Economic Report of the President
Debt to the PublicWorld War II
Forecast based on President's Budget
6464
62.1%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1980 1990 2000 2010
Federal Debt (% of GDP)
Source: CBO
Debt to the Public
6565
95.7%
62.1%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1980 1990 2000 2010
Federal Debt (% of GDP)
Source: CBO
Total Debt
Debt to the Public
Total debt ($13.5T) = debt held by the public ($9.0T) + debt held by gov't accounts ($4.5T)
Gov't accounts* Social Security* Medicare* Other Trust Funds
6666
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1983 1993 2003 2013 2023 2033 2043 2053 2063 2073 2083
Federal Debt (% of GDP)
H F
Source: CBO; Economic Report of the President
Debt to the Public
Baseline
6767
111.0
923.0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1983 1993 2003 2013 2023 2033 2043 2053 2063 2073 2083
Federal Debt (% of GDP)
H F
Source: CBO; Economic Report of the President
Debt to the PublicAlternative
Baseline
Alternative scenarioMore spending• Medicare payment rates rise• Non-entitlement spending/GDP falls less than baselineLess Revenue• Bush tax cuts extended• AMT reach little changed
6868
$14,294
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
1981Q2 1991Q2 2001Q2 2011Q2
Federal Debt
Source: CBO
Total Debt
Billions
Federal Debt Limit Has Been Reached Debt limit of $14.294 trillion reached May 16 Payments to two big gov’t pension plans halted Republicans say no debt limit increase without cuts Other possible options until August 2
trim or delay sales of marketable securities suspend sales of non-marketable securities suspend flows or redeem securities of gov’t accounts swap debt with Federal Financing Bank
If debt limit not raised by August 2 suspend payments (Social Security, Medicare, military) default on bonds, interest rates rise
Key Takeaways
Job growth - will be less than desired weak labor demand (productivity, off-shoring) weak product demand (unemployment) skills imbalance regulations (healthcare, Dodd-Frank, EPA) uncertainty
Housing Market – will remain challenged weak labor market tight lending standards Buyers fear further price declines, more foreclosures Seller can’t sell (low offers, low appraisals, negative equity) high inventories, shadow inventory
Budget Deficits – will likely weigh on growth tax increases spending cuts higher interest rates? less domestic investment lower income growth