Welcome to AP Statistics!

Sit with people who have the same color tootsie roll pop as you!

How many licks does it take?

•Count the number of licks to get to the tootsie pop.

•How can we display your data?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6rHeD5x2tI

What’s in a name!

• http://www.babynamewizard.com/

Statistics can help answer questions such as…..

• How well do SAT scores predict college success?

• Should arthritis sufferers take Celebrex to ease their pain, or are the risks too great?

• Who will win the next Presidential election?

What’s statistics?

• Science of learning from data – numbers with context.

• Science of collecting , organizing, analyzing, and drawing conclusions.

• Used to make sense out of data. http://www.comedycentral.com/colbertreport/videos.jhtml?videoId=91913

My cousin had a heart condition. She went to a hospital in her hometown that was ranked as one of the top ten in the nation for cardiac care. They turned her down because she was considered “too high risk.”

Why?

• Statistics (and numbers in general) can be manufactured to make any idea sound convincing. When used properly, statistics is a powerful tool for uncovering truth; when used improperly, it can be manipulated to prove almost anything.

•                                                                                  ~ "Hands-On Astrophysics" web site

Why Study Statistics?

• To be an informed consumer

• To make decisions• To test the qualities of

products• To evaluate decisions that

affect your life – insurance, financial aid, medical resources.

Statistics….math of the future

• http://www.ted.com/talks/arthur_benjamin_s_formula_for_changing_math_education.html

Data Source…it matters

• Ann Landers – “If you had it to do over again, would you have children.”

• Few weeks later the headline was, “70% of parents say kids not worth it”

Do you believe this?

• Who do you think wrote in and responded?

• In a good study representative of all parents they found that 90% would do it all over!

Who talks more…women or men?• The author of The Female Brain

said that women say 3 times as many words per day as men.

• Researchers found that “Men showed a slightly wider variability in words uttered…But, in the end, the sexes came out just about even in the daily averages: women at 16,215 words and men at 15,669 when 396 students were tested.

The most important information about any statistical study is how the data were produced.

Where do we get good data?

• Not from personal experience – example – we think planes are unsafe.

• Library• Internet such as

www.cdc.gov/nchs • Birth Data:

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss.htm

Methods of Data Collection• Surveys – based on a sample• Census – entire population• Observational Study –

observe individuals and measure variables of interest but do not attempt to influence the responses.

• Experiment – manipulate variables in order to observe the responses.

Only experiments can suggest a cause and effect scenario – observational studies are weak.

How many times have you cheated during a test at school in the past year?• They asked 30,000

students from 100 randomly selected schools.

• 64% had cheated at least once

• Would we get exactly 64% if we asked this at Hanna?

Variability

• It’s almost universal

• Makes life interesting

• Needs to be understood in order to make conclusions from data

Because variation is everywhere, conclusions are uncertain. Statistics gives us a language for talking about uncertainty that is understood by statistically literate people everywhere!

Population – The entire group of objects about which information is desired.

Sample – Subset of the population.

Two types of Statistics

• Descriptive – tables & charts that are used to organize and summarize data.

• Inferential – uses samples to generalize from a small group to a large group. There’s a risk of being wrong.

Give the population & sample.

• Favorite class of all T. L. Hanna students.

• Survey people to find out who they will vote for.

• Test the strength of ropes – 1 per hour.

Describe the population & sample.

A consumer group conducts crash tests of new model cars. To determine the severity of damage to 2003 Mazda 626’s resulting from a 10-mph crash into a concrete wall, the research group tests six cars of this type and assesses the amount of damage.

Population – The entire group of objects about which information is desired.

Sample – Subset of the population.

Two types of Statistics

• Descriptive – tables & charts that are used to organize and summarize data.

• Inferential – uses samples to generalize from a small group to a large group. There’s a risk of being wrong.

Give the population & sample.

• Favorite class of all T. L. Hanna students.

• Survey people to find out who they will vote for.

• Test the strength of ropes – 1 per hour.

Describe the population & sample.

A consumer group conducts crash tests of new model cars. To determine the severity of damage to 2003 Mazda 626’s resulting from a 10-mph crash into a concrete wall, the research group tests six cars of this type and assesses the amount of damage.

Fish Tag Lab