WELCOME!

Many thanks to:

Cornell Cooperative Extension

A cast of thousands

All the CDI Presenters

All the CDI Participants

CaRDI is a multidisciplinary, cross-campus, applied social science unit.

CaRDI seeks to strengthen the capacity, resiliency and sustainability of New York State communities across a variety of program and focal areas.

We support informed decision-making at the local, regional and state level through applied research, training, teaching, engagement & outreach.

The framework for all our activities involves a combination of perspectives and experiences across research, practice, and policy

This approach requires relationships and networks with practitioners and policymakers, connections which we view as our “engagement infrastructure”.

Read more about CaRDI, and access all our resources, including publications at:www.cardi.cornell.edu

Annual Community Development Institute

Focus varies every year:

2013 - Informed Communities, Informed Decision-Making2014 - Water Resources Infrastructure & Community Development

2015 - Strong families <-> Strong Communities

On-going goals:

Facilitating dialogue around important themes of community development

Strengthening connections between campus, PWTs, CCE partners & the communities they serve

Creating applied research opportunities for engaged faculty

Developing new relationships between practitioners, researchers & policymakers across the state

Identifying issues that need additional attention

2015Strong Families <-> Strong Communities

Roadmap for the next 2 days:

Sessions will feature panelists giving short presentations

Panelists represent many different perspectives, experiences and topics

We have purposely built in time for discussion in every session

We want all participants to contribute to these discussions.

We will cover many issue areas in these two days, including:poverty, labor force issues, health and well-being, financial hardship, changing demographics,

data tools and methods, cultural differences, and innovative community programs.

We invite you to bring up additional topics during discussions.

The Changing Composition of New York State Communities

Robin Blakely-Armitage

Community Development Institute:Strong Families <-> Strong Communities

July 14, 2015

Demographic change is important, whether the changes are in: Population size,

Geographic distributionSocioeconomic composition

But while demography and demographic change plays an important role, it is not destiny, for communities, families or individuals

Demography shapes and is shaped by Society

Economy Natural environment

Change, not stability, is the normSome changes enhance opportunities

Other changes pose challenges for people, families, communities, and regions

I will highlight some broad trends across NYS in recent years – throughout the Institute, please talk about the demographic changes your communities are experiencing, and the

opportunities and challenges these changes pose.

Demography & Demographic Change is Important for Communities, but it isn’t the Whole Story…..

U.S. NYS Erie County

Monroe County

Oneida County

Onondaga County

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

9.8%

2.2%

-3.2%

1.3%

-0.5%

1.7%

Population Change is spatially uneven

Onondaga County Syracuse

-2.00%-1.50%-1.00%-0.50%0.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%2.00%

1.7%

-1.8%

Population Change 2000-2012

Even within counties, population change is uneven

Bir

ths

Death

s

Natu

ral

Ch

an

ge

Do

mesti

c M

igra

tio

n

Inte

rnati

on

al M

igra

tio

n

Mig

rati

on

Po

pu

lati

on

Decli

ne

(Nat

ura

l &

Mig

rati

on

) (20,000)

(15,000)

(10,000)

(5,000)

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

14,900

(13,899)

1,001

(4,935)

792

(4,143) (3,704)

Average Annual Components of Population Decline*, New York Non-Metro NY, 2000-2014

Bir

ths

Death

s

Natu

ral

Ch

an

ge

Do

mesti

c M

igra

tio

n

Inte

rnati

on

al M

igra

tio

n

Mig

rati

on

Po

pu

lati

on

Gro

wth

(N

atu

ral

& M

igra

tio

n) (200,000)

(150,000)

(100,000)

(50,000)

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000 247,809

(152,581)

95,228

(162,625)

91,539

(71,086)

68,802

Average Annual Components of Population Growth*, New York, 2000-2014

• International migration has been a source of population growth for NYS, although it slowed dramatically during the recession• International migration gains are concentrated in metro areas, but non-metro also has positive migration from abroad• Internal (domestic) migration has been a source of NYS population loss

The components of population change vary, NYS vs. Non-Metro NYS, 2000-2014

Source: U.S. Decennial CensusesAge

Migration is specific of certain ages:Upstate has been losing young adults

since the 1960s

Aging of the Baby Boom – increasing median Age of NYS Counties, 2013

NYS Median Age increased by 1.8 years since 2000More rapid aging in Upstate-- by 2.3 years

Pct. 65+ reached 15% in 2010 in UpstateEstimated to reach 20% by 2030

Changing Landscape of Diversity• NYS as a whole is much more

diverse than Upstate– 15.2% African American

vs. 7.8%– 16.8% Hispanic vs. 4.9%– 21.3% foreign born vs.

5.8%

NYS County Percentage Change in Hispanic Population, 1990-2009

Source: Center for Disease Control, Race and Ethnicity dataset

• Hispanics are now the largest race/ethnic group in NYS.

• In Upstate, African Americans still outnumber Hispanics

• But, Hispanic rate of growth > African American

• Upstate metropolitan areas are more diverse than nonmetropolitan areas

• BUT, the most highly rural areas are more diverse than small and medium sized cities

U.S. NYS Rochester Syracuse Utica$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$53,046

$57,683

$30,708 $31,459 $31,048

median hh inc (2012 $)

Household Income varies across Upstate, with central city areas much worse off than

surrounding suburbs

Poverty varies by household structure(2012)

U.S. NYS Rochester Syracuse Utica0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

14.9% 14.9%

31.6%33.6%

30.1%

10.9% 11.4%

27.9% 27.4%25.7%

40.00%37.90%

57.30% 57.00% 57.50%

People below poverty levelFamilies below poverty levelFemale hh w/ kids < poverty

Poverty varies by age group(2012)

U.S. NYS Rochester Syracuse Utica0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

20.8% 21.0%

46.9%48.6%

47.3%

9.4%11.4%

16.6%15.3%

17.1%

Under 18 years65 years and older

Poverty varies by race and ethnicity(2012)

U.S. NYS Rochester Syracuse Utica0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

12.1%10.9%

22.1%25.1%

20.2%

26.5%

22.6%

38.5%

42.3%

51.6%

24.1%25.3%

42.5%

50.8%

56.4%

WhiteBlackHispanic/Latino

Broad trends include: population growth/decline,

the geographic distribution of pop. change,migration flows,

age structure shifts, changes in ethnic and racial diversity,

income and poverty variations across space and demographic characteristics, and the intersection of all these trends.

Demographic changes can propel communities upward or downwardCan pose challenges

Can enhance opportunities

Impacts of population changes are not automaticMediated by

Local social structureNational and international environments in which they are embedded

Important to understand your community’s demographic trends, and to make sure local programs and policies are responsive.

Community Demography is Not Community Destiny

Data Tools & Sources:

PAD – Cornell Program on Applied Demographicshttp://pad.human.cornell.edu

NYS County profiles:http://pad.human.cornell.edu/profiles/index.cfm

Sub-County profiles (Cities, Towns, & Villages):http://pad.human.cornell.edu/profiles/subcounty/SchuylerMCD.pdf

Headwaters Economics – Socioeconomic toolkit free download to run on Excel

http://headwaterseconomics.org/tools/eps-hdt

U.S. Census Bureauhttp://census.gov