Weekly_28112015

November 28, 2015

For Private Circulation Only | Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP00000154 6 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946

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TTTTTechnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |

Trading for the week began on Monday with a mildly positive

bias amid mixed global cues. However, the Nifty came off a bit

from the day's high and then traded within a narrow range

throughout the session. It concluded the day with negligible

losses. On Tuesday, the Nifty opened on a soft note and after a

small dip managed to recover during the remaining part of the

day. Thursday's session, coinciding with the derivative's expiry,

witnessed bullish momentum and the Nifty gained nearly half

a percent over its previous close. The last trading session of the

week too traded on a cheerful note and led the Nifty to conclude

the week above the 79007900790079007900 mark. Barring negligible losses from

the FMCG pack, all other sectoral indices ended inside the

positive territory, amongst which the Oil & Gas, Banking and

Realty stocks were among the major gainers. The Nifty ended

the week with a modest gain of 1.10% 1.10% 1.10% 1.10% 1.10% over the previous week's

closing.

Pattern formation: The '89-day EMA' and the '89-week EMA' for the Sensex/

Nifty are placed at 26645 / 8072 26645 / 8072 26645 / 8072 26645 / 8072 26645 / 8072 and 26010 / 7851 26010 / 7851 26010 / 7851 26010 / 7851 26010 / 7851 levels,

respectively.

The '20-day EMA' and the '20-week EMA' for the Sensex/Nifty are placed at 26086 / 791226086 / 791226086 / 791226086 / 791226086 / 7912 and 26654 / 808426654 / 808426654 / 808426654 / 808426654 / 8084 levels,

respectively.

Future outlook

The Nifty traded within a narrow range throughout the first half

of the concluded week, similar as in the previous week. However,

the last couple of trading sessions showed some encouraging

price action as far as the bulls are concerned. Despite the small

trading range, we are witnessing few key developments on the

charts. Firstly, it's the confirmation of a 'Higher Top Higher

Bottom' formation on the hourly chart for the first time in the

last four weeks and more importantly, a positive crossover in

the daily 'RSI-Smoothened' oscillator well inside the positive

Ongoing bounce to extend towards 8050 - 8100

Sensex (26128) / Nifty (7943)

territory. Historically, this technical evidence has proved its

significance on many occasions and thus, it commands some

weightage. In addition, the Nifty has confirmed an 'Inverted

Hammer' (by closing a tad above the high of the pattern) formed

during the penultimate week on the weekly chart. Thus, in the

forthcoming week, we expect this up move in the Nifty to continue

towards 8050 - 8150 8050 - 8150 8050 - 8150 8050 - 8150 8050 - 8150 levels. On the flipside, 7810 - 77007810 - 77007810 - 77007810 - 77007810 - 7700 are

now seen as strong support levels for the Nifty. Meanwhile, a

lot of individual stocks have done well during the concluded

week and we expect continuation of the same in the forthcoming

week as well.

Source: Falcon

Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart

Source: Falcon

Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart

November 28, 2015


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TTTTTechnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |

Technical Research Team

Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty 50 Stocks

SCRIPS

25,525 25,826 26,006 26,307 26,486

7,758 7,850 7,905 7,997 8,052

16,808 17,089 17,247 17,528 17,685

1,312 1,333 1,349 1,370 1,386

260 264 271 276 283

197 200 202 205 208

822 841 853 872 884

452 461 468 478 485

2,326 2,387 2,466 2,527 2,606

163 171 176 184 189

170 173 176 179 182

873 887 905 919 936

330 336 341 347 352

17,638 18,251 18,725 19,338 19,813

132 134 138 140 144

627 635 642 650 656

325 331 336 342 347

2,813 2,956 3,190 3,333 3,567

334 351 361 378 388

3,608 3,671 3,711 3,774 3,813

850 861 868 880 886

1,040 1,060 1,071 1,091 1,102

1,161 1,196 1,219 1,254 1,277

2,521 2,613 2,664 2,755 2,806

71 74 77 80 83

774 795 808 829 843

252 261 266 275 280

128 136 143 151 158

902 913 921 932 941

1,025 1,046 1,058 1,079 1,091

328 336 341 349 353

665 682 692 709 720

1,306 1,335 1,360 1,389 1,413

1,766 1,789 1,829 1,852 1,891

1,279 1,315 1,343 1,380 1,408

4,409 4,494 4,642 4,728 4,876

129 131 133 135 137

226 231 235 240 244

129 131 133 135 137

134 139 143 148 151

926 953 973 999 1,019

237 243 247 253 257

690 715 729 753 767

2,286 2,319 2,366 2,400 2,447

380 399 415 434 451

65 66 67 67 68

217 224 230 237 242

518 526 535 544 553

2,699 2,765 2,806 2,872 2,913

87 90 92 94 96

550 560 569 579 587

717 740 755 778 792

389 401 408 419 426

S2S2S2S2S2 S1 S1 S1 S1 S1 PIVPIVPIVPIVPIVOOOOOTTTTT R1R1R1R1R1 R2R2R2R2R2

SENSEX

NIFTY

NIFTY BANK

ACC

ADANIPORTS

AMBUJACEM

ASIANPAINT

AXISBANK

BAJAJ-AUTO

BANKBARODA

BHEL

BPCL

BHARTIARTL

BOSCH

CAIRN

CIPLA

COALINDIA

DRREDDY

GAIL

GRASIM

HCLTECH

HDFC

HDFCBANK

HEROMOTOCO

HINDALCO

HINDUNILVR

ICICIBANK

IDEA

INDUSINDBK

INFY

ITC

KOTAKBANK

LT

LUPIN

M&M

MARUTI

NTPC

ONGC

POWERGRID

PNB

RELIANCE

SBIN

SUNPHARMA

TCS

TATAMOTORS

TATAPOWER

TATASTEEL

TECHM

ULTRACEMCO

VEDL

WIPRO

YESBANK

ZEEL

November 28, 2015


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Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |

Implied volatility may rise irrespective of market direction

Nifty spot closed at 7942.707942.707942.707942.707942.70 this week against a close of 7856.557856.557856.557856.557856.55 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 0.790.790.790.790.79 to 0.910.910.910.910.91 levels

and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 3.99%3.99%3.99%3.99%3.99%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 12.03%12.03%12.03%12.03%12.03%.

Put-Call Ratio Analysis Implied Volatility Analysis

PCR-OI has increased from 0.79 to 0.91 levels mainly due to

open interest addition in put options. Being start of new series

build-up is quite scattered in 7900 to 8300 call options and of

put options is seen in the range of 7300-7900 strike price.

Maximum buildup in current series is seen in 8500 call & 7500

put options.

Implied Volatility (IV) for NIFTY has decreased from 12.36% to

14.64%. Historical volatility (HV) of NIFTY is at 16.35% and

that for BANKNIFTY is trading at 22.90%. Liquid counters having

very high HV are DRREDDY, RCOM, JINDALSTEL, GMRINFRA

and KSCL. Stocks where HV are on lower side are WIPRO,

HDFCBANK, L&TFH, GRASIM and ACC.

Nifty current month futures closed at a premium of 29.50 points

against a premium of 32.45 points to its spot. Next month

future is trading with premium of 67.10 points. Liquid counters

where CoC is high are UNITECH, GMRINFRA, JPASSOCIAT,

NHPC and SOUTHBANK. Stocks with negative CoC are IDEA,

BATAINDIA, JUSTDIAL, VOLTAS and GAIL.

Total open interest of market has decreased from

`2,45,850/- cr. to `1,77,748/- cr. Stock futures open interest

has decreased from `65,162/- cr. to `59,844/- cr. Liquid

counters names which added significant positions last week

are HEROMOTOCO, SUNPHARMA, TCS, DRREDDY AND

WIPRO. On the other hand unwinding was visible in counters

like ACC, MARUTI, TECHM, KOTAKBANK and GAIL.

Open Interest Analysis Cost-of-Carry Analysis

Derivative Strategy

BUY 300 LT 1350 DEC PE 30.00

Scrip : LScrip : LScrip : LScrip : LScrip : LTTTTT CMP :CMP :CMP :CMP :CMP : ` ` ` ` `1368.80/-1368.80/-1368.80/-1368.80/-1368.80/- LLLLLot Size : 300ot Size : 300ot Size : 300ot Size : 300ot Size : 300 Exercise Date (F & O) : Exercise Date (F & O) : Exercise Date (F & O) : Exercise Date (F & O) : Exercise Date (F & O) : 31st Dec 2015

Expected PayoffView: Mildly Bearish

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

1450

BEPBEPBEPBEPBEP ----- `````1320/-1320/-1320/-1320/-1320/-

Max. Risk:Max. Risk:Max. Risk:Max. Risk:Max. Risk: `9,000/- Max. PMax. PMax. PMax. PMax. Profit:rofit:rofit:rofit:rofit: UnlimitedIf LT closes on or above BEP on expiry. If LT closes on or below BEP on expiry.

NOTE: Profit can be booked before expiry if LT moves in favorable direction and implied volatility increases

Strategy: Long Put

Buy/SellBuy/SellBuy/SellBuy/SellBuy/Sell QtyQtyQtyQtyQty ScripScripScripScripScrip StrikeStrikeStrikeStrikeStrike SeriesSeriesSeriesSeriesSeries OptionOptionOptionOptionOption Buy/Sell RateBuy/Sell RateBuy/Sell RateBuy/Sell RateBuy/Sell RatePPPPPricericericericerice TTTTTypeypeypeypeype (((((`````)))))

Closing PClosing PClosing PClosing PClosing Pricericericericerice ExpectedExpectedExpectedExpectedExpected ( ( ( ( (RsRsRsRsRs))))) Profit/LossProfit/LossProfit/LossProfit/LossProfit/Loss

`120.00

`70.00

`20.00

(`30.00)

(`30.00)

(`30.00)

Weekly

Ratings (Based on expected returnsRatings (Based on expected returnsRatings (Based on expected returnsRatings (Based on expected returnsRatings (Based on expected returns Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)over 12 months investment period):over 12 months investment period):over 12 months investment period):over 12 months investment period):over 12 months investment period): Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15)

Disclaimer

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Weekly_28112015