Upload
others
View
0
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
ISSUE NO. 345 DECEMBER 17TH
2012 – DECEMBER 21ST 2012
ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT
WEEKLY MARKET WATCH
TTAABBLLEE OO
FF CC
OONN
TTEENN
TTSS
LLEEBBAANNOONN NEWS
ECONOMIC INSIGHTS
> Lebanon’s Total External Debt Stood At $24.77 Billion In The Year 2011 1
> Arabian Business Magazine Ranks Wealthiest Individuals in the Arab World in 2012 2
> Opened Letters Of Credits Up By 9.15% Up To October 2012 3 > Lebanon’s Balance Of Trade Deficit Hits The $16.06 Billion Mark
Up To November 2012 4 > Budget Deficit Up By 52.62% Through August 2012 5 > Customs Collections Almost Flat Y-O-Y At $2.78 Billion Up to
November 2012 6 > Banque Du Liban's Reserves Reach $51.35 Billion as at Mid
December 2012 7 > Lebanon’s Aِnnual Inflation Reaches 10.3% During The Month
Of November 2012 8
> Cement Deliveries Slow By 6.45% Y-o-Y Up To October 2012 9 > HSBC to Finance the Establishment of the Zouk and Jieh Power
Plants 9
CORPORATE NEWS
> SGBL Raises its Capital by $325 Million to $810 Million 10 > BSE to De-List Bank of Beirut Class “D” Preferred Shares 10
MONETARY PERFORMANCE
> Monetary Aggregates 11 > Money Markets 11
FIXED INCOME
> Fixed Income 12
LEBANESE EQUITIES
> Lebanese Equities & Credit Libanais Indices 13
Lebanon's Economic & Financial Sector Indicators 15 Lebanon's Ratings 16
LEBANON’S TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT
STOOD AT $24.77 BILLION IN THE
YEAR 2011
According to the World Bank’s
“International Debt Statistics 2013”
report, Lebanon came second in terms of
the highest ratio of total external debt to
Gross National Income (GNI) of 66% in
the year 2011, preceded by Jordan (67%)
only.
ARABIAN BUSINESS MAGAZINE RANKS
WEALTHIEST INDIVIDUALS IN THE ARAB
WORLD IN 2012
According to Arabian Business
magazine, 6 renowned businessmen of
Lebanese descent surfaced among the
Arab world’s wealthiest individuals in
the year 2012, topped by Former Prime
Minister Mr. Saad Hariri (regional rank:
22nd) with an estimated net worth of
$3.70 billion.
OPENED LETTERS OF CREDITS UP BY
9.15% UP TO OCTOBER 2012
According to Banque Du Liban statistics,
the aggregate value of opened L/Cs was
up by 9.15% on an annual basis to $8.62
billion during the first ten months of the
current year from around $7.90 billion in
the same period in 2011.
CUSTOMS COLLECTIONS ALMOST FLAT
Y-O-Y AT $2.78 BILLION UP TO
NOVEMBER 2012
Figures released by the Lebanese
Customs unveil a shy 0.29% annual
increase in customs collections to around
$2.78 billion during the first eleven
months of 2012 from around $2.77 billion
a year earlier.
Weekly Market Watch
ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT - SOFIL CENTER, BEIRUT LEBANON - TEL: 01-200028/9 FAX: 01-326786
Weekly Market Watch
ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT - SOFIL CENTER, BEIRUT LEBANON - TEL: 01-200028/9 FAX: 01-326786
SSYYNN
OOPPSSII SS
OOFF TT
EERRMM
SS
"BDL" Banque Du Liban "ABL" Association of Banks in Lebanon "MOF" The Lebanese Ministry of
Finance "BOP" Balance of Payment "IMF" The International Monetary Fund "Moody's" Moody's Investors Service "BSE" Beirut Stock Exchange "GDRs" Global Depositary Receipts "M1" Currency in Circulation + Demand
Deposits in LBP "M2" M1 + Other Deposits in LBP "M3" M2 + Deposits in Foreign Currencies "M4" M3+ Treasury Bills Held By Non Banking System, Including Accrued
Interests "CPI" Consumer Price Index "PPI" Producer Price Index "CLASI" Credit Libanais Aggregate Stock Index
"CLFI" Credit Libanais Financial Sector Stock Index
"CLCI" Credit Libanais Construction Sector Stock Index “EIU” Economist Intelligence Unit "P/E" Price to Earnings Multiple "P/BV" Price to Book Multiple "YTD" Year To Date "YTD Price Performance" Yield to Date Price Appreciation
"Forex" Foreign Exchange "LBP" The Lebanese Pound "USD" The United States Dollar "Yen" The Japanese Yen "GBP" The British Pound/ Sterling Pound "CHF" The Swiss Franc "Y-O-Y" Year-On-Year "GDP" Gross Domestic Product
"MENA" Middle East and North Africa
"FOMC" Federal Open Market Committee
“LE” “LE” Livre Egyptienne – Egyptian Pound
“SAR” Saudi Arabian Riyal “AED” United Arab Emirates Dirham “BD” Bahraini Dinar
“”
LLEEBBAANN
OONN
NNEEWW
SS
LEBANON’S TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT STOOD AT $24.77 BILLION IN THE YEAR 2011
The World Bank issued on the 21st of December, 2012 its annual “International Debt Statistics 2013” report in
which it provides a glimpse on the external debt of some 128 developing countries during the year 2011. The
report highlighted that net debt inflows to developing countries in the year 2011 fared better than analysts’ expectations, with said figure dropping 9% y-o-y to $465 billion on the back of the 143% contraction in inflows from official creditors.
As far as the Middle East & North Africa region is concerned, Egypt recorded the highest external debt figure of $35.00 billion in the year 2011, followed by Morocco ($29.05 billion), Lebanon ($24.77 billion) and Tunisia ($22.34 billion).
On the local front, Lebanon came second in terms of the highest ratio of total external debt to Gross National Income (GNI) of 66% in the year 2011, preceded by Jordan (67%) only, and followed and at quite a distance by Djibouti (63%), Tunisia (53%), Morocco (32%) and Yemen (23%), only to name a few. Lebanon also ranked third with regards to the ratio of total external debt to exports (103%) in the MENA region, preceded only by
Jordan (134%) and Djibouti (173%).
As depicted by the following section, Lebanon’s GNI surpassed the $40.14 billion mark in the year 2011, in
comparison with a lower $38.50 billion figure in the year 2010. Additionally, Lebanon witnessed some major improvements with regards to its current account deficit which tightened to $4.16 billion in the year 2011 from $7.46 billion in 2010.
Weekly Market Watch
SOURCE: WORLD BANK, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 1
Algeria
Iran
Syria
Egypt
Yemen
Morocco
Tunisia
Djibouti
Lebanon
Jordan
4%
5%
9%
17%
23%
32%
53%
63%
66%
67%
Ratio of Total External Debt to GNI in the MENA
Region as of the Year 2011 (in %)
Source: World Bank, Credit Lianas Economic Research Unit
Algeria
Syria
Yemen
Egypt
Tunisia
Morocco
Lebanon
Jordan
Djibouti
9%
24%
73%
74%
99%
102%
103%
134%
173%
Ratio of Total External Debt to Exports in the MENA
Region as of the Year 2011 (in %)
Source: World Bank, Credit Lianas Economic Research Unit
CountryTotal External Debt
(in USD millions)
Total Long-Term External
Debt (in USD millions)
Ratio of Total External
Debt to Exports (in %)
Ratio of Total External
Debt to GNI1 (in %)
Algeria 6,072 3,091 9% 4%
Djibouti 767 642 173% 63%
Egypt 35,001 30,596 74% 17%
Iran 19,113 4,859 - 5%
Jordan 17,634 7,496 134% 67%
Lebanon 24,767 21,101 103% 66%
Morocco 29,049 25,157 102% 32%
Syria 4,968 3,998 24% 9%
Tunisia 22,335 16,949 99% 53%
Yemen 6,418 5,876 73% 23%
GNI1: Gross National Income
Key Indebtedness Indicators For The Year 2011
Source: World Bank, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit
Ratio of Total External Debt to Exports in the MENA Region as of
in USD millions2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011
Gross National Income 17,581 21,674 30,517 34,697 38,497 40,147
Exports of Goods, Services & Primary Income - 14,958 24,813 23,137 22,251 26,760
Personal Transfers & Compensation of Employees - 4,924 7,181 7,558 7,351 7,403
Imports of Goods, Services & Primary Income - 18,768 31,276 31,705 32,469 33,494
Primary Income on FDI1 - 95 121 95 209 183
Current Account Balance - (2,748) (4,103) (6,741) (7,462) (4,163)
International Reserves 5,944 11,887 20,244 29,103 31,514 33,741
FDI1: Foreign Direct Investments
Lebanon: Major Economic Aggregates
Source: World Bank, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit
LLEEBBAANN
OONN
NNEEWW
SS
ARABIAN BUSINESS MAGAZINE RANKS WEALTHIEST INDIVIDUALS IN THE ARAB WORLD IN 2012
According to Arabian Business magazine’s “Rich List 2012 – The Arab World’s Richest People” report,
which positions wealthy Arab individuals based on their respective net worth, 6 renowned businessmen of
Lebanese descent surfaced among the Arab world’s wealthiest individuals, topped by Former Prime
Minister Mr. Saad Hariri (regional rank: 22nd) with an estimated net worth of $3.70 billion in 2012, down
from $3.80 billion in 2011. The list positioned Mr. Bahaa Hariri 2nd on a local basis and 23rd in the Arab
World with a net worth of $3.65 billion, followed by Mr. Nick and Mrs. Nayla Hayek (regional rank: 30th
<$3.40 billion>), Mr. Taha Mikati (regional rank: 31st <$3.30 billion>), Prime Minister Mr. Najib Mikati
(regional rank: 33rd <$3.00 billion>) and Mr. Ayman Hariri (regional rank: 48th <$2.15 billion>). As for
the Arab region, Saudi Arabia led the top 3 positions, with Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal topping the list of
Arab billionaires for the ninth consecutive year, with an estimated fortune of $25.90 billion, followed by
the Olayan Family ($12.90 billion) and Mr. Mohammed Al Amoudi ($11.50 billion). In addition, the article
revealed that the combined wealth of the Arab world’s 50 wealthiest individuals rose by a mere 0.2% over
the year 2012 to reach $257.20 billion at present from $256.67 billion a year earlier. Saudi Arabia houses
the majority (23) of Arab billionaires, followed by the United Kingdom (5 Arab billionaires), the United
Arab Emirates (3 Arab billionaires), Kuwait (3 Arab billionaires), Palestine (3 Arab billionaires), Egypt (2
Arab billionaires) and Lebanon (2 Arab billionaires) on a respective basis.
Weekly Market Watch
SOURCE: ARABIAN BUSINESS MAGAZINE, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 2
Residence NameNet Worth
($ Billion) in 20122012 rank
Saudi Arabia HRH Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal 25.90 1
Saudi Arabia Olayan Family 12.90 2
Saudi Arabia Mohammed Al Amoudi 11.50 3
Egypt The Sawiris Family 11.20 4
Saudi Arabia Issam Alzahid 11.00 5
Kuwait Al Kharafi Family 8.60 6
Saudi Arabia Bin Ladin Family 8.10 7
Kuwait Bukhamseen Family 7.20 8
Palestine Mr. Said Khoury 7.20 9
France Mr. Mohammed Al Jaber 7.00 10
Lebanon Mr. Saad Hariri 3.70 22
Switzerland Mr. Bahaa Hariri 3.65 23
Switzerland Nayla and Nick Hayek 3.40 30
Saudi Arabia Mr. Taha Mikati 3.30 31
Lebanon Mr. Najib Mikati 3.00 33
Saudi Arabia Mr. Ayman Hariri 2.15 48
Source: Arabian Business Magazine, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit
Major Top Arab Billionaires in 2012
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
Mr. Saad Hariri
Mr. Bahaa Hariri
Nayla and Nick Hayek
Mr. Taha Mikati
Mr. Najib Mikati
Mr. Ayman Hariri
3.70 3.653.40 3.30
3.00
2.15
Top Billionaires of Lebanese Origin in 2012 ($ Billion)
LLEEBBAANN
OONN
NNEEWW
SS
OPENED LETTERS OF CREDITS UP BY 9.15% UP TO OCTOBER 2012
According to Banque Du Liban statistics, opened letters of credits (L/Cs), a measurement tool for trade activity, gained a shy 1.20% y-o-y during the month of October 2012 to $720.78 million, up from $712.21 million in
October 2011. Concurrently, the aggregate value of opened L/Cs was up by 9.15% on an annual basis to $8.62 billion during the first ten months of the current year from around $7.90 billion in the same period in 2011.
Documentary L/Cs opened to finance imports activities widened by 18.51% y-o-y to around $5.31 billion, from nearly $4.48 billion as at end of October of last year. Utilized credits for imports neared $5.11 billion comparing to $4.39 billion last year. On the other hand, inward bills for collection, another documentary credit form of financing (backed by invoices), fell by 10.90% y-o-y to $1.58 billion down from $1.77 billion as at end of October 2011.
Documentary L/Cs opened to finance exports activities shed $105.83 million on a yearly basis to around $3.32 billion. Utilized credits to finance exports firmed at around $3.06 billion (92.17% of opened L/Cs for exports), from $3.02 billion (88.35% of opened L/Cs for exports) as at end of October 2011. On the other hand, outward bills for collection shed $2.05 billion on a yearly basis to $1.36 billion, with the value of outstanding outward
bills reaching $438.05 million, in comparison with $487.21 million by end of October 2011.
Weekly Market Watch
SOURCE: BDL, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 3
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Oct-2011 Oct-2012
3,421.473,315.64
3,408.51
1,361.07
$ Million
Opened Letters of Credits & Outward Bills For Exports' Financing
– Opened Credits – Outward Bills
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Oct-2006 Oct-2007 Oct-2008 Oct-2009 Oct-2010 Oct-2011 Oct-2012
4,027.44
5,178.19
7,385.11
6,261.19
7,865.72 7,898.10
8,620.69 Million
Evolution of Total Opened L/Cs
Source: BDL, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Oct-2011 Oct-2012
4,476.63
5,305.05
1,774.711,581.28
$ Million
Opened Letters of Credits & Inward Bills For Imports' Financing
– Opened Credits – Inward Bills
$ Million Oct-2011 Oct-2012Y-O-Y
% Change
Documentary L/Cs
– Opened Credits 3,421.47 3,315.64 -3.09%
– Utilized Credits 3,022.82 3,055.96 1.10%
– Outstanding Credits 1,144.96 1,276.46 11.49%
Bills For Collection
– Outward Bills 3,408.51 1,361.07 -60.07%
– Outstanding Bills 487.21 438.05 -10.09%
Source: BDL, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit
Documentary Credits For Exports' Financing For The Ten-Month
Period Ending
$ Million Oct-2011 Oct-2012Y-O-Y
% Change
Documentary L/Cs
– Opened Credits 4,476.63 5,305.05 18.51%
– Utilized Credits 4,391.78 5,107.79 16.30%
– Outstanding Credits 870.94 998.96 14.70%
Bills For Collection
– Inward Bills 1,774.71 1,581.28 -10.90%
– Outstanding Bills 175.18 153.48 -12.38%
Source: BDL, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit
Documentary Credits For Imports' Financing For The Ten-Month
Period Ending
Balancce
Weekly Market Watch
SOURCE: HIGHER CUSTOMS COUNCIL, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT
4
LLEEBBAANN
OONN
NNEEWW
SS
LEBANON’S BALANCE OF TRADE DEFICIT HITS THE $16.06 BILLION MARK UP TO November 2012
On the current account side of the balance of payment, Lebanon’s balance of trade deficit added $0.58 billion year-on-year to around $16.06 billion up to the month of November 2012, according to statistics published by
Lebanon’s Higher Customs Council. This is attributed to some $0.75 billion annual increase in imports to around $20.16 billion, counterbalancing the $175 million rise in exports to $4.10 billion.
The United States of America topped the list of countries exporting to Lebanon, with an exports bill of $2,306 million (11.44% of Lebanon’s imports), propelled by a surge in fuel imports to the benefit of Electricite Du
Liban. Switzerland, on the other hand, led the list of countries importing from Lebanon, with an imports’ invoice of $467 million (11.38% of Lebanon’s exports).
Exports of “pearls, precious or semi-precious stones” represented the bulk of exported goods, accounting alone
for 93.43% ($1,620 million) of total exports, followed by “machinery & mechanical appliances” ($494 million <10.85%>), and “base metals & articles of base metals” ($422 million <10.23%>). On the other hand, “mineral products” constituted the lion’s share of imported goods ($5,434 million <24.24%>), followed by “machinery & mechanical appliances” ($1,538 million <9.40%>), “chemical products” ($1,854 million <4.56%>), and “pearls, precious or semi-precious stones” ($1,451 million <7.98%>).
Product
Value
($ Million)
% of
Total
Pearls, Precious or Semi-
Precious Stones1,620 39.49%
Machinery & Mechanical
Appliances434 10.58%
Base Metals & Articles of
Base Metal422 10.29%
Prepared Foodstuffs 354 8.63%
Others 1,272 31.01%
Total Exports 4,102 100%
Source: Higher Customs Council, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit
Breakdown of Exports by Product
in the First Eleven Months of the Year 2012
Product
Value
($ Million)
% of
Total
Mineral Products 5,497 27.27%
Machinery & Mechanical
Appliances1,895 9.40%
Chemical Products 1,584 7.86%
Pearls, Precious or Semi-
Precious Stones1,481 7.35%
Others 9,701 48.12%
Total Imports 20,158 100%
Source: Higher Customs Council, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit
Breakdown of Imports by Product
in the First Eleven Months of the Year 2012
Switzerland 467 11.38%
UAE 329 8.02%
Saudi Arabia 328 8.00%
Syria 251 6.12%
Iraq 190 4.63%
Source: Higher Customs Council, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit
Major Export Destinations (in USD Million)
USA 2,306 11.44%
Italy 1,615 8.01%
China 1,606 7.97%
France 1,418 7.03%
Germany 1,093 5.42%
Source: Higher Customs Council, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit
Major Import Sources (in USD Million)
-20,000
-16,000
-12,000
-8,000
-4,000
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
24,000
November 2011 November 2012
USD MillionCumulative Balance of Trade Deficit
Exports Imports Deficit
Source: Higher Customs Council, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit
Balance of Trade YOY
(US$ Million) November 2011 November 2012 % Change
Exports 3,927 4,102 4.46%
Imports 19,408 20,158 3.86%
Trade Deficit (15,481) (16,056) 3.71%Source: Higher Customs Council, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit
For The Eleven-Month Period Ending
LLEEBBAANN
OONN
NNEEWW
SS
Weekly Market Watch
SOURCE: MINISTRY OF FINANCE, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT
5
BUDGET DEFICIT UP BY 52.62% THROUGH AUGUST 2012
Lebanon’s fiscal deficit (budgetary & treasury) neared $1.49 billion as at the end of August 2012, up from $0.98 billion during the same period last year. The primary balance, however, registered a surplus of $787 million in
comparison with a larger surplus of $1,505 million a year earlier. Government revenues rose 5.12% y-o-y to
$6.57 billion mainly buoyed by a 7.60% rise in income tax revenues to $1.38 billion. In parallel, government expenditures (including debt service) increased by 11.53% annually to just over $8.05 billion up to August, fueled by some $550.65 million increase in transfers to EDL. Consequently, the deficit to total expenditures’ ratio widened to 18.48% up from 13.50% in the same period last year.
Tax Revenues
(73.38%)
•Misc Tax Revenues (35.12%)
•Customs Revenues (15.04%)
•VAT Revenues (23.22%)
Non-Tax Revenues
(22.07%)
Treasury Receipts
(4.55%)
•Guarantees (1.36%)
•Municipalities (2.06%)
•Deposits (0.53%)
•Other (0.60%)
Breakdownof
Government Revenues
Public Finance Y-O-Y
(USD Million) August-2011 August-2012 % Change
Revenues 6,250 6,570 5.12%
Expenditures (including debt servicing) 7,226 8,059 11.53%
Debt Servicing 2,481 2,277 -8.24%
Total Deficit (976) (1,489) 52.62%
Total Primary Surplus/ (Deficit) 1,505 787 -47.69%
Deficit / Total Expenditures 13.50% 18.48%
Source: The Lebanese Ministry of Finance, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit
For the Eight-Month Period Ending
LLEEBBAANN
OONN
NNEEWW
SS
6,250 6,5707,226
8,059
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
Aug-11 Aug-12
USD MillionCumulative Budget Deficit
RevenuesExpenditures (including debt servicing)Total Deficit
General Exp.
(53.74%)
•Electricité Du Liban (17.88%)
•Budget Exp. Prev. Year (4.38%)
•Other(31.48%)
Debt Service
(28.25%)
•Interest Payment (17.43%)
•Foreign Debt Principal Repayment (10.82%)
Treasury Exp.
(18.01%)
•Guarantees (0.61%)
•Municipalities (4.54%)
•Deposits (0.58%)
•Other (12.28%)
Breakdownof
Government Expenditures
LLEEBBAANN
OONN
NNEEWW
SS
Weekly Market Watch
SOURCE: HIGHER CUSTOMS COUNCIL, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT
6
CUSTOMS COLLECTIONS ALMOST FLAT Y-O-Y AT $2.78 BILLION UP TO NOVEMBER 2012
Figures released by the Lebanese Customs unveil a shy 0.29% annual increase in customs collections to around $2.78 billion during the first eleven months of 2012 from around $2.77 billion a year earlier. Said increase is
mainly attributed to a 3.40% hike in customs revenues to $1.43 billion, outweighing the 2.84% drop in VAT revenues to $1.34 billion.
The Port of Beirut amassed the lion’s share (59.84% >$2,327.21 million<) of total customs receipts up to
November 2012 trailed, and by far, by the Beirut International Airport (8.33% >$231.10 million<) and the Tripoli Port (3.44% >$95.40 million<).
The average customs tariff rate settled at 8% in November 2012, unchanged from the readings it registered in
October 2012 and November of last year.
Port of Beirut83.84%
BIA8.33%
Tripoli Port3.44%
Others4.39%
Breakdown of Customs Collections per Custom Offices Up To
November 2012
Source: Lebanese Customs, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12
972
1,679 1,7791,387 1,434
1,164
1,2501,371
1,380 1,341
Custom Revenues VAT Revenues
2,136
2,9293,150
2,767 2,775
Breakdown of Aggregate Customs Collections
USD Million
Source: Lebanese Customs, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit
in USD Million Nov-11 Nov-12 % Change
Custom Revenues 1,387 1,434 3.40%
VAT Revenues 1,380 1,341 -2.84%
Custom Collections 2,767 2,775 0.29%Source: Lebanese Customs, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit
Port of Beirut 2,327.21
Beirut Internaitonal Airport ("BIA") 231.10
Tripoli Port 95.40
Others 121.08
Total 2,774.79
Breakdown of Custom Collections Up To
November 2012 ($ Million)
Source: Lebanese Customs, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit
LLEEBBAANN
OONN
NNEEWW
SS
Weekly Market Watch
SOURCE: BDL, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 7
BANQUE DU LIBAN'S RESERVES REACH $51.35 BILLION AS AT MID DECEMBER 2012
The Lebanese Central Bank published its mid December balance sheet conveying a 0.02% ($7.69 million) bi-weekly expansion in Lebanon’s foreign assets (foreign currency reserves) portfolio to $98.653 billion, from $35.675 billion a fortnight ago. On an annual basis, foreign assets have grown markedly by 10.30% from
$32.35 billion as at mid December 2011. On the other hand, the value of gold reserves shed $273.44 million (1.72%) during the first half of December to $15.66 billion. The value of gold reserves at Banque Du Liban, however, appreciated by $1.03 billion y-o-y from $14.63 billion in mid December 2011. Consequently, total reserves (foreign currency and gold) have grown by $4.37 billion during the one-year period
ending mid December 2012 to $51.35 billion, up from $46.98 billion in mid December 2011, as elaborated hereunder:
The Central Bank’s balance sheet contracted by 0.12% during the first half of December 2012 to $78.42 billion, dragged by the 0.51% bi-weekly dip in total reserves to $51.35 billion.
The share of gold and foreign currency reserves shrank to 65.47% of total BDL’s balance sheet as at mid December, down from 65.99% in the same period last year.
$ BillionMid December
2006
Mid December
2007
Mid December
2008
Mid December
2009
Mid December
2010
Mid December
2011
Mid December
2012
Gold 5.77 7.36 7.65 10.27 12.81 14.63 15.66
Foreign Assets 12.83 12.27 19.58 28.04 30.85 32.35 35.68
Total Reserves 18.60 19.63 27.22 38.31 43.67 46.98 51.35
Source: Banque Du Liban, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit
$ Billion
Mid
December
2011
End of
November
2012
Mid December
2012Bi-weekly (%) Y-O-Y (%)
Total Reserves 46.98 51.61 51.35 -0.51% 9.29%
Securities Portfolio 11.58 11.79 11.80 0.12% 1.89%
Loans to Public Sector 0.09 0.04 0.04 0.21% -60.40%
Loans to Local Financial Sector 1.39 1.62 1.62 -0.09% 16.04%
Valuation Adjustment 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00% 0.00%
Other Assets 10.91 13.21 13.37 1.18% 22.51%
Fixed Assets 0.23 0.26 0.26 0.07% 10.56%
Total Assets 71.19 78.52 78.42 -0.12% 10.16%
Currency in Circulation Outside BDL 2.05 2.28 2.31 1.29% 12.95%
Financial Sector Deposits 49.12 54.91 54.95 0.08% 11.89%
Public Sector Deposits 5.92 6.22 6.25 0.36% 5.54%
Valuation Adjustment 9.04 10.39 10.13 -2.48% 12.08%
Other Liabilities 2.28 1.73 1.80 3.64% -21.13%
Capital Accounts 2.79 2.98 2.98 0.00% 6.75%
Total Liabilities 71.19 78.52 78.42 -0.12% 10.16%
Source: Banque Du Liban, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
Mid
December
2006
Mid
December
2007
Mid
December
2008
Mid
December
2009
Mid
December
2010
Mid
December
2011
Mid
December
2012
12.83 12.27
19.58
28.0430.85
32.35
35.68
$ Billion
Evolution of Banque Du Liban's Foreign Assets
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
Mid
December
2006
Mid
December
2007
Mid
December
2008
Mid
December
2009
Mid
December
2010
Mid
December
2011
Mid
December
2012
5.77
7.367.65
10.27
12.81
14.6315.66
$ Billion
Evolution of Banque Du Liban's Gold Reserves
Total
Reserves65.47%
Securities
Portfolio15.05%
Loans to
Public Sector0.05%
Loans to Local
Financial Sector
2.06%
Valuation
Adjustment0.00% Other Assets
17.04%
Fixed Assets
0.33%
Breakdown of BDL's Balance Sheet As At Mid
December 2012
Source: BDL, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit
LLEEBBAANN
OONN
NNEEWW
SS
Weekly Market Watch
SOURCE: CENTRAL ADMINISTRATION OF STATISTICS, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 8
LEBANON’S AِNNUAL INFLATION REACHES 10.3% DURING THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER 2012
According to the Central Administration of Statistics (“CAS”), Lebanon’s annual inflation rate, as captured by the change in the consumer price index (“CPI”), hit the 10.3% mark during the month of November 2012. More specifically, November’s CPI reached 129.6 up from 117.6 a year before. Said rise is mainly attributed to the
5.3% annual appreciation in the price of food & non-alcoholic beverages, the index’s largest constituent (19.9% weight), coupled with a 44.1% rise in housing rental costs and a 14.5% increase in education costs. However, and on a monthly basis, Lebanon’s CPI edged 0.3% lower in November on the back of the 3.2% contraction in
transportation costs in tandem with the decline in gasoline prices. The following section captures the fluctuation in Lebanon’s consumer basket’s key constituents on a monthly and annual basis:
Monthly
(October 2012-November 2012)
Annually
(November 2011-November 2012)Weight
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 0.2% 5.3% 19.9%
Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco 0.5% 8.7% 2.1%
Clothing & Footwear 0.4% 4.5% 6.2%
Housing 0.0% 44.1% 16.2%
Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels -0.3% 6.5% 9.5%
Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine
Household Maintenance0.0% 1.2% 3.9%
Health 0.0% -0.2% 6.8%
Transportation -3.2% 1.5% 12.3%
Communication 0.0% 0.0% 4.8%
Recreation, Amusement, and Culture 0.0% 7.1% 3.7%
Education 0.0% 14.5% 7.7%
Restaurant & Hotels 0.0% 4.1% 2.7%
Miscellaneous Goods & Services 0.2% 3.6% 4.2%
Consumer Price Index -0.3% 10.3% 100.0%
Source: Central Administration of Statistics, Credit Liabanais Economic Research Unit
Price Volatility in November 2012
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
Food &
Non-A
lcoholic
Bevera
ges
Alc
oholic B
evera
ges
& T
obacc
o
Clo
thin
g &
Footw
ear
Housin
g
Wate
r, E
lectr
icity, G
as &
Oth
er Fuels
Furn
ishin
gs, H
ousehold
Equip
ment &
Routine
Household
Main
tenance
Health
Tra
nsport
ation
Com
munic
ation
Recre
ation, A
musem
ent,
and C
ulture
Education
Resta
ura
nt &
Hote
ls
Mis
cellaneous G
oods &
Serv
ices
5.3%
8.7%4.5%
44.1%
6.5%
1.2%
-0.2%
1.5%0.0%
7.1%
14.5%
4.1% 3.6%0.2% 0.5%
0.4%0.0%
-0.3%
0.0% 0.0%
-3.2%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Monthly & Y-O-Y Price Volatility In November 2012
Y-O-Y Monthly
LLEEBBAANN
OONN
NNEEWW
SS
Weekly Market Watch
SOURCE: BDL, AL AKHBAR, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 9
CEMENT DELIVERIES SLOW BY 6.45% Y-O-Y UP TO OCTOBER 2012
Cement deliveries, the coincident indicator of construction activity, rose by 6.68% month-on-month to 551,162 tons in October 2012 in comparison with 516,634 tons in September 2012. On a cumulative basis, however, cement deliveries fell by 6.45% year-on-year to 4,474,292 tons during the first ten months of 2012, from
4,782,681 tons a year earlier. It is worth highlighting that the average monthly growth rate in cement deliveries reached 6.07% during the first ten month of 2012 in comparison with an average monthly growth rate of 6.34% in the same period in 2011.
The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in cement deliveries attained 8.06% during the period extending between October 2006 and October 2012, mirroring the strong appetite for the realty sector during the post-war reconstruction journey.
HSBC TO FINANCE THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE ZOUK AND JIEH POWER PLANTS
British-based bank HSBC and German-based EKF (Energy and Climate Fund) won a tender to finance the
establishment of the Zouk and Jieh power plants for a total consideration of around $980 million. Moreover, the funding of the two power plants will be at a low interest rate of 4.9%, in addition to a long grace period extending six months following the completion of the two projects. It is worth noting, in this perspective, that the German-based MAN (Maschinenfabrik Augsburg-Nürnberg) group and the Danish-based BWSC (Burmeister & Wain Scandinavian Contractor) group won the bids to establish two new power plants in Zouk and Jieh with delivery expected to be completed in 18 months. The two power plants will have a total capacity of 242 megawatts. It is worth highlighting that the auction was under the supervision of the World Bank and witnessed
the participation of other renowned international companies such as Caterpillar and Wartsila.
October-2006 2,809,484
October-2007 3,300,120
October-2008 3,477,223
October-2009 4,190,768
October-2010 4,416,812
October-2011 4,782,681
October-2012 4,474,292
Source: BDL, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit
Evolution of Cumulative Cement
Deliveries (Tons)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
2,809,4843,300,120 3,477,223
4,190,7684,416,812
4,782,6814,474,292
Yealy Evolution of Cement Deliveries
Source: BDL, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit
CCOO
RRPPOO
RRAATTEE NN
EEWW
SS
SGBL RAISES ITS CAPITAL BY $325 MILLION TO $810 MILLION
Societe Generale de Banque au Liban (SGBL) announced recently that it raised its capital by $325 million to around $810 million. As for the breakdown of the capital increase, $100 million (30.8%) were in the form of
new common shares, an additional $100 million (30.8%) were under the umbrella of capitalized retained earnings, while the remaining $125 million (38.4%) were raised through the issuance of non-convertible
preferred shares, at an annual coupon of 7 percent. It is worth noting that said increase aims mainly at boosting the bank’s capital adequacy ratio which is expected to exceed 12% over the next two years.
BSE TO DE-LIST BANK OF BEIRUT CLASS “D” PREFERRED SHARES
According to the Beirut Stock Exchange circular number 369/2012 dated December 18, 2012, the Beirut Stock Exchange announced recently the cessation of trading sessions on the Bank of Beirut Class “D” preferred shares issued and listed since year 2007, and this being effective as of December 21, 2012. It is worth noting that the preferred shares are non-cumulative, perpetual, and redeemable, and carry a dividend yield of 9% per annum.
Weekly Market Watch
SOURCE: ALMUSTAQBAL, BSE, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 10
MONETARY AGGREGATES
On the monetary front, all monetary indicators closed on a positive note during the week of December 6, 2012.
The overall money supply “M4” increased by $405.49 million to settle at around $109.54 billion. The expansion in
the “M4” monetary aggregate during the aforementioned week came along with a $36.19 million week-on-week increase in non-banking sector treasury bills. Lebanese-pound denominated deposits and currency in circulation “M1” gained some $172.95 million to around $4.38 billion on the back of some $178.44 million increase in money in circulation which outweighed the $5.31 million drop in demand deposits. Furthermore, local currency term deposits “M2” expanded by $212.65 million
during the week of December 6, while marking a robust twelve-month increase of 13.23% to $43.61 billion. Consequently, private sector term and saving deposits denominated in LBP (“M2- M1”) notched slightly higher to $93.29 billion, with deposits denominated in foreign currencies (“M9–M2”) crawling sluggishly to $60.44 billion.
MONEY MARKETS
The December 13th Treasury bill auction raised LBP 313.92 billion ($208.24 million), down from around LBP 358.26
billion ($237.65 million) in the previous week. The auction resulted in a deficit over nominal subscription of LBP 77.31 billion ($51.28 million) comparing to a surplus of LBP 240.91 billion ($159.81 million) in the preceding week.
Subscriptions were majority (88.46%) concentrated in the three-year to maturity bills, followed by the one-year
(9.05%) and two-year (2.48%) bills.
The weighted average yield on Lebanese Pound Treasury bills rose to 6.38% during the December 13th auction from 6.34% during the latest auction of same maturities held on the 29th of November. This owes to the increasing
subscription stake in the higher-yielding three-year bills to 88.46% in the current auction from 78.05% in that of November 29, added the 3 basis points (bps) rise in the one-year t-bills’ yield to 8.95%. On the other hand, the yield on the two-year and three-year tenor T-bills remained flat at 5.84% and 6.50% respectively.
CORPORATE NEWS ORPORATE NEWS CORPORATE NEWS ORPORATE NEWS
MMOO
NNEETTAARRYY PP
EERRFFOO
RRMM
AANN
CCEE
Weekly Market Watch
SOURCE: BDL, REUTERS, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 11
M oney Supply
USD M illion
M 1 4,206 4,379 4.11%
M 2 43,395 43,608 0.49%
M 3 103,740 104,049 0.30%
M 4 109,132 109,538 0.37%
M 2-M 1 39,189 39,229 0.10%
M 3-M 2 60,345 60,442 0.16%Source: Banque Du Liban, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit
November 29, 2012 December 6, 2012 % Change
6,000
26,000
46,000
66,000
86,000
November 29, 2012 December 6, 2012
109,132 109,538103,740 104,049
Money Supply - USD Million -
M4 M3
Source: BDL, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit
Lebanese
Treasury
Bills
Yield (%) Face Value ( in billio ns o f
LB P )
% of Total
Face Value
Lebanese
Treasury
Bills
Yield (%) Face Value ( in billio ns o f
LB P )
% of Total
Face Value
3 Months 4.43% 128.385 35.84% 12 Months 5.38% 28.423 9.05%
6 Months 4.99% 161.331 45.03% 24 Months 5.84% 7.799 2.48%
60 Months 6.74% 68.541 19.13% 36 Months 6.50% 277.700 88.46%
Total 358.258 100% Total 313.922 100%
December 6, 2012 Auction December 13, 2012 Auction
Source: Reuters, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit
Lebanese Treasury Bills 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months 24 Months 36 Months 60 Months 84 Months 96 Months 120 Months
Treasury Yield 4.43% 4.99% 5.38% 5.84% 6.50% 6.74% 7.50% 7.80% 8.24%
3 Months
6 Months 12 Months24 Months
36 Months60 Months
84 Months96 Months 120 Months
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
On The Run Yield Curve
FFII XX
EEDD
IINN
CCOO
MMEE
FIXED INCOME
Activity on the Lebanese Eurobond market remained at subdued levels this week ahead of end of year holidays. Lebanon’s five-year credit default swap remained unchanged at 430.0 basis points (bps) while static spreads settled marginally lower at 391.85 bps during the week of December 21, 2012, down from 392.15 bps a week
earlier.
Weekly Market Watch
SOURCE: CREDIT LIBANAIS CAPITAL MARKETS, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 12
Lebanese Eurobonds Currency Coupon Maturity Bid Ask Bid YieldBid Static
Spread
Republic of Lebanon USD 9.125% Mar-13 100.375 101.750 7.292% 706
Republic of Lebanon USD 8.625% Jun-13 103.375 104.000 1.850% 155
Republic of Lebanon USD 7.375% Apr-14 107.000 107.625 1.971% 165
Republic of Lebanon USD 9.000% May-14 108.625 109.625 2.547% 222
Republic of Lebanon USD 5.875% Jan-15 104.000 105.000 3.847% 348
Banque Du Liban USD 10.000% Apr-15 113.750 114.750 3.820% 344
Republic of Lebanon USD 8.500% Aug-15 111.000 112.000 4.046% 364
Republic of Lebanon USD 8.500% Jan-16 111.500 112.500 4.464% 401
Republic of Lebanon USD 11.625% May-16 122.375 123.375 4.447% 395
Republic of Lebanon USD 4.750% Nov-16 100.000 101.000 4.748% 416
Republic of Lebanon USD 9.000% Mar-17 116.000 117.000 4.793% 415
Republic of Lebanon USD 5.150% Nov-18 100.000 101.000 5.149% 416
Republic of Lebanon USD 6.000% May-19 103.875 104.875 5.279% 420
Republic of Lebanon USD 5.450% Nov-19 100.000 101.000 5.449% 427
Republic of Lebanon USD 6.375% Mar-20 104.000 105.000 5.690% 447
Republic of Lebanon USD 8.250% Apr-21 115.200 116.200 5.908% 454
Republic of Lebanon USD 6.100% Oct-22 100.375 100.875 5.947% 428
Republic of Lebanon USD 7.000% Dec-24 106.000 107.000 6.278% 443
Republic of Lebanon USD 6.600% Nov-26 101.000 102.000 6.489% 448
Republic of Lebanon USD 5.000% Oct-17 100.000 101.000 4.998% 423
Source: Credit Libanais Capital Markets
LEBANESE EUROBONDS
Government Eurobonds
LLEEBBAANN
EESSEE EE
QQUU
II TTII EE
SS
Weekly Market Watch
SOURCE: BSE, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 13
LEBANESE EQUITIES
Activity on the Beirut Stock Exchange remained at subdued levels this week, with the number of
shares changing hands reaching 868,590 in
comparison with 659,783 shares traded last week. Trades were concentrated in Bank Audi Listed Shares with a total of 473,644 traded shares, accounting for 54.53% of weekly BSE traded volume, on a thin turnover ratio of 0.14%.
Concurrently, value traded rose to around $7.75 million, the bulk of which (63.94%) corresponding to banking sector stocks.
The average daily trading value stood at $1.55 million this week, up from $1.05 million in the previous week. Concurrently, average daily trading
volume advanced to 173,718 shares, from 131,957
shares a week earlier. The Credit Libanais Aggregate Stock Index (“CLASI”) prolonged its upturn for the fourth consecutive week, making a 0.41% weekly increase to 1,006.97, underpinned by seven gainers and
three losers. This is also mirrored by a parallel increase in market capitalization to $10.44 billion. Said increase owes mainly to the significant appreciation in the prices of some major banking shares. In the real estate sector, heavy market cap-
weighted Solidere “A” and “B” bucked their gaining streak to close down by 0.08% and 0.69% this
week at $13.09 and $13.02 respectively. Nevertheless, the Credit Libanais Construction Sector Stock Index (“CLCI”) managed to extend its weekly gains to 705.33, thanks to the 3.33%
weekly increase in the price of Holcim listed shares to $15.50. In the banking sector, the Credit Libanais Financial Sector Stock Index (“CLFI”) notched 0.53% higher this week amid the appreciation in the prices of six categories of banking stocks included in the index
calculation basket, namely those associated with Bank Audi, Bank of Beirut, and BLOM Bank shares.
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1,000
1,050
1,100
21-D
ec-1
1
23-J
an-1
2
25-F
eb-1
2
29-M
ar-
12
01-M
ay-1
2
03-J
un-1
2
06-J
ul-
12
08-A
ug-1
2
10-S
ep-1
2
13-O
ct-
12
15-N
ov-1
2
18-D
ec-1
2
Ind
ex V
alu
e
Credit Libanais Aggregate Stock IndexWeekly Performance
CLASI
CLASI 0.41%
.CLASI Credit Libanais Aggregate Stock Index
Value Daily % Chng Daily Net Chng
1,006.97 -0.319% -3.22
Yr.High Year Hi.Date Yr.Low Year.Lo.Date
1,069.75 5-Mar-12 946.11 23-Oct-12
Life High Life Hi.Date Life Low Life.Lo.Date
1,801.01 7-Jul-08 836.11 25-Mar-09
Friday, December 21, 2012
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
21-D
ec-11
23-Jan-12
25-Feb-12
29-M
ar-
12
01-M
ay-12
03-Jun-12
06-Jul-
12
08-Aug-12
10-Sep-12
13-O
ct-
12
15-N
ov-12
18-D
ec-12
Ind
ex V
alu
e
Credit Libanais Financial Sector Stock IndexWeekly Performance
CLFI
CLFI 0.53%
600
650
700
750
800
850
21-D
ec-11
23-Jan-12
25-Feb-12
29-M
ar-
12
01-M
ay-12
03-Jun-12
06-Jul-
12
08-Aug-12
10-Sep-12
13-O
ct-
12
15-N
ov-12
18-D
ec-12
Ind
ex V
alu
e
Credit Libanais Construction Sector Stock IndexWeekly Performance
CLCI
CLCI 0.12%
Credit Libanais Previous Closing Weekly
Indices 14-December-2012 21-December-2012 % Change
Credit Libanais Aggregate Stock
Index <.CLASI>1,002.85 1,006.97 0.41%
Credit Libanais Financial Sector
Stock Index <.CLFI>1,194.25 1,200.56 0.53%
Credit Libanais Construction Sector
Stock Index <.CLCI>704.51 705.33 0.12%
Source: Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit
LLEEBBAANN
EESSEE EE
QQUU
II TTII EE
SS
The weighted average price to earning (P/E) and price to book (P/BV) multiples of the Beirut Bourse settled at 7.494x and 0.994x on a respective basis.
Weekly Market Watch
SOURCE: BSE, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 14
Source: BSE, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit
0.000
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
December 14, 2012 December 21, 2012
7.50 7.49
0.989 0.994
Evolution of Beirut Bourse Comparable Benchmarks
#REF! #REF!
Previous Last % Change
Value Traded ($) 5,255,039 7,752,366 47.52%
Volume Traded 659,783 868,590 31.65%
Average Daily Trading Value ($) 1,051,008 1,550,473 47.52%
Average Daily Trading Volume 131,957 173,718 31.65%
Market Cap - BSE ($) 10,402,551,799 10,444,566,119 0.40%
Weighted Average P/E 7.496 7.494 -0.03%
Weighted Average P/BV 0.989 0.994 0.48%
Activity Analysis
Source: Beirut Stock Exchange, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit
Weekly Weekly Weekly Total Market Leading Leading YTD Price
%change Volume Value Listed Capitalisation P/E P/BV Perf.
Traded Traded Shares ($000)
Solidere A $13.09 -0.08% 166,207 $2,221,883 100,000,000 $1,309,000 11.85 1.24 -8.97%
Solidere B $13.02 -0.69% 41,744 $556,770 65,000,000 $846,300 11.79 1.24 -10.21%
BLC Bank $1.90 0.00% - - 51,033,333 $96,963 8.64 1.27 4.97%-
BLC Bank Preferred Class "A" $102.00 0.00% - - 400,000 $40,800 n.a n.a 2.00%
BLC Bank Preferred Class "B" $102.00 0.00% - - 550,000 $56,100 n.a n.a 2.00%
Bank Audi - Listed Shares $6.09 1.84% 473,644 $2,861,374 349,749,204 $2,129,973 4.80 0.88 4.82%
Bank Audi GDR $6.12 2.00% 15,857 $95,177 102,017,651 $624,348 4.82 0.89 8.51%
Bank Audi Preferred "D" $10.35 0.98% 12,000 $124,200 12,500,000 $129,375 n.a n.a 0.49%
Bank Audi Preferred "E" $100.00 0.00% - - 1,250,000 $125,000 n.a n.a -0.50%-
Bank Audi Preferred "F" $100.00 0.00% - - 1,500,000 $150,000 n.a n.a 0.00%-
Bank Of Beirut - Listed Shares $19.00 0.00% 332 $6,308 16,822,467 $319,627 13.10 1.59 -2.06%
Bank Of Beirut Preferred "D" $27.10 4.23% 57,200 $1,550,120 4,000,000 $108,400 n.a n.a 4.23%
Bank Of Beirut Preferred "E" $26.20 0.00% - - 2,400,000 $62,880 n.a n.a 0.77%-
Bank Of Beirut Preferred "H" $26.19 0.00% - - 5,400,000 $141,426 n.a n.a 4.76%-
Byblos Bank - Listed Shares $1.53 -3.16% 73,758 $112,850 565,515,040 $865,238 6.65 0.70 -6.13%
Byblos Bank Preferred Class 2008 $101.70 0.00% - - 2,000,000 $203,400 n.a n.a 0.69%-
Byblos Bank Preferred Class 2009 $103.00 0.00% - - 2,000,000 $206,000 n.a n.a 1.98%-
Byblos Bank GDR $70.00 0.00% - - 1,309,078 $91,635 6.09 0.64 -9.68%-
BEMO Bank - Listed Shares $1.89 0.00% - - 51,400,000 $97,146 15.75 1.24 -19.57%-
BEMO Bank Preferred $100.00 0.00% - - 200,000 $20,000 n.a n.a 0.00%-
BLOM Bank GDR $7.92 1.54% 5,630 $44,567 73,896,010 $585,256 5.39 0.86 6.31%
BLOM Bank Listed Shares $7.64 0.13% 20,791 $158,792 215,000,000 $1,642,600 5.20 0.83 2.96%
BLOM Bank Preferred Class 2011 $10.17 0.00% 327 $3,326 20,000,000 $203,400 n.a n.a 0.39%
RYMCO $2.20 0.00% - - 10,920,000 $24,024 18.05 1.13 -12.00%-
Holcim Liban $15.50 3.33% 1,100 $17,000 19,516,040 $302,499 10.4 1.44 -8.72%
Ciment Blancs Bearer $3.26 0.00% - - 6,000,000 $19,560 11.52 1.93 0.31%-
Ciment Blancs Nominal $3.30 0.00% - - 3,000,000 $9,900 11.66 1.95 36.93%-
Beirut Preferred Fund $103.50 0.00% - - 325,756 $33,716 n.a n.a -0.29%-
Lebanese Equities
BEIRUT STOCK EXCHANGE Closing
Source: Beirut Stock Exchange, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit
Note: n.a stands for not applicable
Weekly Market Watch
SOURCE: BDL, ABL, IMF, BILANBANQUES, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 15
LLEEBBAANN
OONN’’ SS
MMAAII NN
IINN
DDII CC
AATTOO
RRSS
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
M ACROECONOM IC INDICATORS
GDP ($ Billion) 20.08 21.79 21.86 22.44 25.06 30.08 34.93 39.25 41.46* 44.90*
Real GDP Growth Rate 3.20% 7.50% 1.00% 0.60% 7.50% 9.30% 8.50% 7.50% 1.5%* 3.0%*
GDP Per Capita ($) 5,421 5,805 5,824 5,969 6,666 7,900 9,054 10,044 10,474* 11,197*
Net Foreign Direct Investment ($ Billion) 2.99 1.99 2.79 2.68 3.38 4.33 4.84 4.96 4.90
FDI/GDP Ratio 14.89% 9.15% 12.76% 11.94% 13.47% 14.39% 13.86% 12.64%
INDUSTRY
Industrial Exports ($ Million) 1,087 1,467 1,667 1,738 2,361 2,994 2,645 3,291 3,520 2,202 (5)
Import of Industrial Machinery ($ Million) 109 142 137 130 163 188 199.13 227.15 238.60 220.22 (5)
TOURISM
Total Number of Tourists 1,015,793 1,278,469 1,139,524 1,062,635 1,017,072 1,332,551 1,851,081 2,167,989 1,655,051 1,086,319 (5)
Growth in Tax-Free Spending N.A N.A 2% -15% 17% 56% 13% 21% 10% 1%
REAL ESTATE
Value of Real Estate Transactions ($ Million) 2,882.6 2,883.0 3,295.9 3,120.3 4,174.8 6,443.7 6,958.4 9,478.8 8,841.0 7,165 (6)
Number of Real Estate Sales Transactions 47,118 50,582 50,057 49,051 65,681 80,018 83,465 94,202 82,984 59,081 (6)
Construction Permits (000 sqm) 7,196 7,719 7,928 7,532 7,919 14,281 11,509 15,187 13,980 10,012 (6)
Cement Delivery (000 tons) 2,704 2,729 3,040 3,423 3,945 4,219 4,897 5,227 5,550 4,474 (6)
TRANSPORTATION
Beirut Port: Freight Activity(000 Tons) 4,767 5,060 4,476 4,226 5,318 5,746 5,769 6,469 6,677 6,579 (8)
Beirut Airport: Number of Passengers (million) 2.72 3.2 3.18 2.74 3.41 3.87 4.74 5.55 5.65 5.46 (8)
FOREIGN TRADE
Imports ($ Million) 7,168 9,397 9,340 9,398 11,815 16,137 16,242 17,964 20,158 17,805 (6)
Exports ($ Million) 1,524 1,747 1,880 2,283 2,816 3,478 3,484 4,253 4,265 3,739 (6)
Trade Balance ($ Million) (5,644) (7,650) (7,460) (7,115) (8,999) (12,658) (12,758) (13,711) (15,893) (16,056) (8)
(12,732) (5)
BALANCE OF PAYM ENTS
Balance of Payments ($ Million) 3,385 168 747 2,792 2,037 3,460.60 7,899.00 3,325.20 (1,996) (2,028.7) (6)
Foreign Assets ($ Billion) 12.18 11.48 11.66 12.97 12.39 19.73 28.30 30.85 32.24 35.68 (8)
PUBLIC FINANCE
Government Expenditures ($ Million) 7,027 6,992 6,768 7,880 8,350 9,922 11,388 11,336 11,675 8,059 (4)
Government Revenues ($ Million) 4,415 4,984 4,912 4,853 5,804 7,000 8,428 8,414 9,333 6,570 (4)
Budget Primary Deficit / Surplus ($ Million) 1,515 1,851 1,802 1,335 1,787 2,730 3,380 1,203
Total Deficit ($ Million) (2,612) (2,008) (1,856) (3,027) (2,546) (2,921) (2,960) (2,894) (2,342) (1,489) (4)
Deficit / GDP Ratio 13.01% 9.22% 8.61% 13.49% 10.16% 10.10% 8.48% 7.37%
Debt Service / GDP Ratio 16.33% 12.43% 10.88% 13.47% 13.08% 12.16% 11.56% -10.51%
Net Public Debt ($ Billion) 31.36 32.98 34.76 37.42 39.02 41.50 44.11 45.01 46.35 48.35 (6)
Gross Public Debt/GDP Ratio 168.50% 167.00% 175.70% 179.90% 167.80% 162.50% 146.46% 133.99% 129.38%
M ONETARY AGGREGATES & INFLATION
M4 ($ Billion) 46.63 49.63 51.59 56.08 63.56 72.58 87.08 97.31 103.5 109.54 (7)
(M2-M1) ($ Billion) 15.51 15.22 14.27 13.37 14.11 21.93 31.14 35.66 36.39 39.23 (7)
Monetization Level (M2/GDP Ratio) 87.90% 80.27% 74.24% 69.39% 65.76% 85.55% 97.95% 100.20%
change in CPI (%) 3.00% 1.70% -2.60% 5.60% 9.30% 6.36% 4.20% 6.19% 4.27% 10.3% (8)
BANKING SYSTEM
Number of Commercial Banks 52 53 54 54 54 53 53 54 54
Number of Branches 809 799 825 830 847 860 885 912 948
Total Assets ($ Million) 59,895 67,786 70,325 76,179 82,255 94,255 115,250 128,925 140,576 149,375 (6)
Total Deposits ($ Million) 49,362 55,835 58,117 61,541 68,059 78,663 96,821 108,601 117,703 125,006 (6)
Loans to the Private Sector ($ Million) 14,929 15,934 16,230 17,201 20,425 25,039 28,374 34,929 39,375 42,726 (6)
Customer Loans/ Deposits 30.24% 28.54% 27.93% 27.95% 30.01% 31.83% 29.31% 32.16% 33.45% 34.20%
Dollarization Rate 65.02% 68.78% 71.71% 75.16% 77.34% 69.57% 64.46% 63.24% 65.92% 64.72%
Net Profit - After Tax ($ Million) 448.30 463.42 580.47 753.51 961.99 1,214.81 1,428.92 1,837.56 1,743.28
Exchange Rate (LBP to USD) 1,507.50 1,507.50 1,507.50 1,507.50 1,507.50 1,507.50 1,507.50 1,507.50 1,507.50 1,507.50
Recap of Lebanon's Major Indicators
* Figures Reflect IM F Estimates
(1) As At End of June 2011, (2) As At End of June, 2012, (3) As At End of July, 2012, (4) As At End of August, 2012, (5) As At End of September, 2012, (6) As At End of October, 2012, (7) As At December 6, 2012
(8) As At End of November, 2012
LLEEBBAANN
OONN’’ SS
RRAATTII NN
GGSS
Weekly Market Watch
SOURCE: MOF, MOODY’S, CAPITAL INTELLIGENCE, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 16
Rated Banks
Long Term
Foreign
Currency
Financial
Strength
Outlook Long Term
Foreign
Currency
Outlook
Bank Audi-Saradar B1 D- Negative B Stable
BLOM Bank B1 D- Negative B Stable
Credit Libanais - - - B Stable
Byblos Bank B1 D- Negative B Stable
BBAC - - - B Stable
Fransabank - - - B Stable
Bank of Beirut B1 D- Negative - -
Sources: Moody's Investors Service, Capital Intellgince
Lebanese Banks' Latest Ratings
Capital IntelligenceMoody's Investors Service
Rating Agency Tenor Rating
Long-term B
short-term B
M oody's Investor Services Ltd Long-term B1
Fitch IBCA Ltd Long-term B
short-term B
Source: M inistry of Finance: Debt & Debt M arkets Reports, M oody's Investor Services, Standard & Poor's
NegativeStandard & Poor's
Republic Of Lebanon Sovereign Ratings
Outlook
Stable
Stable
Stable
s
CONTACTS
RESEARCH Fadlo I. Choueiri, CFA [email protected] 961-1-200 028 EXT: 235 Jad Abi Haidar [email protected] 961-1-200 028 EXT. 251 Rim Fayad [email protected] 961-1-200 028 EXT. 230 Joelle Samaha [email protected] 961-1-200 028 EXT. 232
Jessica Basbous [email protected] 961-1-200 028 EXT. 275
MONEY MARKETS DESK Robert Araman [email protected] 961-1-200 028 EXT. 116 FX DESK Christian Hajjar [email protected] 961-1-200 027 CAPITAL MARKETS DESK Gaith Mansour [email protected] 961-1-322 191
This document is being furnished to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe to or purchase any security, and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever.
Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated herein are accurate and the estimates, opinions and expectations contained herein are fair and reliable.
CCOO
NNTTAACCTTSS
Weekly Market Watch
ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT - SOFIL CENTER, BEIRUT LEBANON - TEL: 01-200028/9 FAX: 01-326786
17