ISSUE NO. 5

Overall market activity heightened last week, generating local market gains of 0.35% to a value of 1,241.60. MASSY registered the largest gain for the week, increasing $1.02 to an end of the week price of $50.01. Conversely, UCL registered the week's largest decline, falling $3.34 to close at $46.01.

FEATURES

Local Market Review Local Fixed Income Review

9TH OCTOBER, 2017

WEEKLY MARKET ROUND-UP 

The system's excess liquidity (including Banks’ holdings of T- Bills, OMOs and T-Notes, less Repos) stood at $13,817.9 million, $989.6 million less than the previous week ending September 29, 2017 of $14,807.5 million.

All information contained herein is obtained by JMMB® Investment Research from sources believed by it to be accurate and

reliable. All opinions and estimates constitute the Analyst’s judgment as of the date of the report. However, neither its accuracy

and completeness NOR THE OPINIONS BASED THEREON ARE GUARANTEED. As such NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR

IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THIS REPORT IS GIVEN OR MADE BY JMMB®

IN ANY FORM WHATSOEVER. JMMBITT is a member of the JMMB Group and a registered broker dealer with TTSEC.

Local Market ReviewOverall market activity heightened last week, generating local market gains of 0.35% to a value of 1,241.60.

Trading activity on the First Tier Market registered a volume of 1.18 million shares crossing the floor of the

Exchange valued at $14.3 million, representing a 109.24% increase in traded units and a 218.4%

advance in value compared to the prior week. Last week, One Caribbean Media Limited (OCM) topped as

the the volume leader, trading 400,290.00 units (33.82%), followed by National Flour Mills Limited (NFM)

with a volume of 203,035 units (17.15%) changing hands. Angostura Holdings Limited (AHL)

contributed 193,503 units or 16.35%, to overall market activity.

MASSY registered the largest gain for the week, increasing $1.02 to an end of the week price of $50.01.

Conversely, UCL registered the week's largest decline, falling $3.34 to close at $46.01. Overall market

activity resulted from the trading activity of 20 stocks of which 8 advanced, 6 declined and 6 traded steady.

Local indices weekly performance:

� The Composite advanced by 4.27 points (↑0.35%) to close at 1,241.60. (YTD Return : ↑2.90%).

� The All T&T Index declined by 1.61 points (↓0.09%) to close at 1,782.18. (YTD Return:↓2.68%).

� The Cross Listed Index advanced by 1.40 points (↑1.51%) to close at 94.18. (YTD Return:↑21.01%).

Local Economic Review

MARKET ROUND-UP2

In light of the 2018 budget review presented last Monday, we are pleased to share some of our thoughts on

pertinent budget highlights.

- The economic growth strategy articulated by the Minister continues to be dependent on energy output and

gas findings coming into production. However we know that there are a number of risks with this assumption.

No new diversification initiatives were outlined nor any specific progress update given on previously

announced initiatives. We support the offering of CLF assets to the public as a transparent means of

disposal and adds to the existing suite of local investment vehicles.

-We are pleased to see that Government has cut expenditure by $3B from last year’s budget. However,

$50.5B in expenditure is still significantly in excess of the projected $37B in core revenues, which given the

soft economy comes with downside risk. The projected $13.5B deficit is to be financed from increased

borrowing of $4.5B and $7.5B from sale of CLF assets and HSF drawdowns. In light of higher than

previously budgeted borrowings in 2017, we are concerned with further borrowings to the level of $4.5B.

- We expect that there will be some inflationary impact as retail Diesel prices have increased 48% to $3.41

and Super Gasoline increased 11% to $3.90. We also note the comments made on the USD/TTD rate which

the Minister indicated will move more in line with demand and supply.

- We believe the increase in corporate tax rate, from 25% to 30%, will arguably, negatively impact the SME

sector and would have liked to see a minimum profitability threshold.

Budget Highlights

N O M A D I C | 2 4

3 JMMB INVESTMENTSMARKET ROUND-UP

Overview: The system's excess liquidity (including Banks’ holdings of T-Bills, OMOs

and T-Notes, less Repos) stood at $13,817.9 million, $989.6 million less

than the previous week ending September 29, 2017 of $14,807.5 million.

Surplus reserves increased by $164.2 million from $2,018.5 million to

$2,182.7 million.

Market Liquidity:

New Issues: TTMF TT$725MM Five Series (A to E) bond closed on Friday, Oct. 06,

2017 (issue date – Oct. 11, 2017).

Secondary Market Trading: The secondary market remains relatively muted :15MM of TT$555.27MM

2.50% 06-Aug-23 traded at 4.87% at a price of $88.11 on Oct. 04, 2017.

Local Fixed Income Review

N O M A D I C | 2 4

5 MARKET ROUND-UP

The latest weekly data from the US Energy

Information Administration (EIA) showed another

sharp fall in US net oil imports. This is mainly due

to a drop in imports whilst exports have surged by

about 50%.

This fall in net imports has helped to reduce US

commercial stocks of crude oil, which are

now below last year’s level. Given that the US is

the largest oil consumer and has timely and

transparent data, changes in inventories there

tend to impact prices significantly. Falling US

stocks were one factor contributing to the recent

rally in prices.

Source: Capital Economics

US ECONOMYENERGY UPDATE

US Labor Market Shows StrengthUS Energy Information Administration (EIA) Report

All information contained herein is obtained by JMMB® Investment Research from sources believed by it to be accurate and

reliable. All opinions and estimates constitute the Analyst’s judgment as of the date of the report. However, neither its accuracy

and completeness NOR THE OPINIONS BASED THEREON ARE GUARANTEED. As such NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR

IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THIS REPORT IS GIVEN OR MADE BY JMMB®

IN ANY FORM WHATSOEVER. JMMBITT is a member of the JMMB Group and a registered broker dealer with TTSEC.

Despite challenges faced by the economy due to two

major hurricanes and the dip in payroll, the US labour

market remained buoyant in September. Payrolls fell for

the first time since 2010, reflecting Hurricane Harvey's

impact on Texas and Irma's impact in Florida.

At the same time, the unemployment rate dropped to a

new 16 year low and labor participation increased.

September's non-farm payrolls declined 33,000, lower

than the consensus forecast of 90,000.

We believe that the Fed and the markets will ignore this

report based of the storm-related distortions. Lower

unemployment and faster wage growth makes for a

stronger case for the December rate hike .

International Economic Review