Weekly Fund Flows 9 January 2018 Strategy Datepg.jrj.com.cn/acc/Res/CN_RES/INVEST/2018/1/9/5fb8cf37...2018/01/09 · 9 January 2018 Weekly Fund Flows Periodical Europe Strategy Weekly

9 January 2018

Weekly Fund Flows

Periodical

Europe Strategy

Weekly Fund FlowsDate9 January 2018

Deutsche BankMarkets Research

Bond funds are first off the mark

Last week’s (Wed-Wed) review of funds’ in/outflows as % of funds’ AuM.

Despite the rising yield environment going into 2018, investors poured substantialmoney into total bond funds as they scaled to a three-month high of inflows lastweek. The majority of inflows originated in developed markets, with US bondfunds garnering a ten-week high of inflows, but EM bond funds also managed tobuild on last year's strong run. In more detail, high-yield bond funds snapped outof their nine-week outflow streak (the longest since early 2008) and given theirrelationship with the oil price, and with the Fed rate hike out of the way for atleast a couple of months, could gain further (see Fig. 1). Furthermore, funds thatbuy inflation-protected bonds attracted the 11th straight week of positive flows,the longest in more than a year.

On the equity side, and with US equity indices hitting new highs every day, fundinvestors seem to take a moment of reflection, as US equity funds suffered heftyweekly redemptions (the second highest in nine months, only topped by theoutflows two weeks prior), while rotating into global equity fund mandates andemerging markets. Meanwhile, European equity funds snapped out of four weeksof redemptions. However on a relative basis, and based on our macro surpriseprojections, we believe the downtrend for Europe relative to US flows has furtherto go before rebounding into early Q2 (see Fig. 2). For our 2017 review and our2018 fund flow outlook, please see our "Wrapping up" report from December .

Figure 1: Higher oil implies u/s for high-yield fund flows Figure 2: We see further d/s for Europe rel. to US flows

-14

-9

-4

1

6

11

-35%

-25%

-15%

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17

Oil , % 1m change

1m flows into Total HY funds USD $bn, rhs

-130

-80

-30

20

70

120

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

3m relative net inflows, as % of NAV, annualizedEurope versus US

Source:EPFR Global, Datastream, Deutsche Bank calculations Source::EPFR Global, Datastream, Deutsche Bank calculations

Andreas Bruckner

Strategist

+44-20-754-18171

Sebastian Raedler, Ph.D.

Strategist

+44-20-754-18169

Wolf von Rotberg

Strategist

+44-20-754-52801

Tom Pearce, CFA

Strategist

+44-20-754-16568

Deutsche Bank AG/London

Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should beaware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should considerthis report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONSARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017.

Distributed on: 09/01/2018 19:24:11 GMT

7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa

9 January 2018

Weekly Fund Flows

Figure 3: Flow data on funds (allincluding ETFs)

Total

assets in

EPFR

sample

($bn)

12m

cum.

flow as

% of

4wk avg.

flow as

% of

Total equity funds

Total Developed Market equity funds

US equity funds

Western Europe equity funds

Japan equity funds

Asia Pacific equity funds

Total Emerging Market equity funds

GEM equity funds

EMEA equity funds

Latin America equity funds

Asia ex-Japan equity funds

Total bond funds

Corporate High Yield funds

US bond funds

Western Europe bond funds

Emerging Markets bond funds

Asia ex-Japan bond funds

Latin America bond funds

Money Market funds

Global Sector funds

Commodities/Materials

Consumer Goods

Energy

Financials

Health Care/Biotech

Industrials

Infrastructure

Real Estate

Technology

Utilities

Europe country equity funds

Germany

UK

France

Switzerland

Thematic Funds

Convertible bond funds

Inflation Protected bond funds

Source: EPFR Global, Deutsche Bank calculations

Bonds (+), equities (-) and MM (+):The flow rebound after the Christmas lull didnot last, as global flow momentum decelerated back below average during lastweek. Since we left for Christmas, DM funds were unusually volatile (see Fig. 4)while on the EM side, both bonds and equity fund flows remained stable andpositive. In the broadest terms, hefty US equity outflows pushed total equity funds(-0.0%, MFs: -0.0%, ETFs: -0.1%) into negative territory, while weekly flows intototal bond funds (+0.2%) rose to the highest in three months. Meanwhile, MMfund flows (+1.0%) scaled to the highest level in five months.

DM equity funds (-) with US (-) vs. Japan (+) & Western Europe (~): The newyear started on a sour note for DM equity funds (-0.1%, MFs: -0.0%, ETFs: -0.1%)as they posted their second week of outflows since Q4 2017, majorly driven bysubstantial US ETF redemptions. Regionally, even as US equity indices continuedto climb, US equity funds (-0.2%, MFs: -0.1%, ETFs: -0.3%) posted outflows, whileJapan (+0.1%, MFs: +0.2%, ETFs:+0.0%) gained inflows for the fifth consecutiveweek. European equity funds (+0.0%, MFs: +0.0%, ETFs: +0.1%) put a halt tothe their longest outflow streak since Q4 2016 and managed to gain too over thecourse of last week.

EM equity funds (+) with Asia ex-Japan & LatAm (+) vs. EMEA (~): EM equityfunds (+0.1%, MFs: +0.1%, ETFs: +0.2%) saw inflows for the fourth consecutiveweek as both ETF & MF mandates gained. Regionally, inflows were seen acrossmost major regions, as globally diversified EM mandates (+0.1%) scaling to theirhighest level in three months, with Asia ex-Japan (+0.1%, MFs: +0.1%, ETFs:+0.2%) and LatAm (+0.4%, MFs: +1.1%, ETFs: -0.1%) also gaining. Only EMEAequity funds (-0.0%, MFs: -0.1%, ETFs: +0.0%) recorded outflows for a secondweek running, albeit marginal.

Bond funds (+) with DM bonds (+) vs. EM (+): Total bond funds (+0.2%) kicked offthe year with three-month high gains even as yields continued to rise. This wasmajorly driven by influx into DM bonds (+0.2%, three-month high inflows) withEM bonds (+0.4%) also contributing. On the risk scale, both sovereign (-0.2%) andcredit funds (+0.1%) saw positive flows. Credit funds rose to their highest levelin two months as both HY (+0.2%, highest in three months) and IG mandates(+0.0%) finished above the line. Sovereign bond funds were helped by bothEurope (+0.2%, highest in six months) & US (+0.3%) mandates alike.

Figure 4: Total weekly flows into the regions and classes ('money at work')

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17

Weekly total asset flows into regions ('money at work'), in $bnEM bonds

EM equity

DM bonds

DM equity

Total


Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/London

9 January 2018

Weekly Fund Flows

Flows into all fund classes (all, including ETFs) – a timeseries

Figure 5: Heat map showing flows into all major fund classes (including ETFs) as a percentage of net asset valueFund Category 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD

Total equity Funds 0% -4% 0% 2% -1% 1% 4% 2% 0% -1.3% 3.1% 0.0%

Total Developed market equity funds -1% -3% -3% -1% 0% -1% 6% 2% 1% -1.4% 2.8% -0.1%

US equity funds 0% 2% -4% -1% 0% -1% 4% 2% -4% -1.0% 0.0% -0.2%

Western Europe equity funds -10% -12% 0% -4% -2% -3% 6% 1% 12% -9.4% 2.9% 0.0%

Japan equity funds -30% -24% -23% -3% 4% 10% 30% 7% 20% 3.1% 10.3% 0.1%

Total Emerging Market equity funds 7% -11% 17% 14% -6% 8% -2% -3% -9% -0.7% 6.3% 0.1%

EMEA equity funds -4% -21% 4% 16% -16% -5% -15% -11% -7% -0.3% -5.8% 0.0%

Latin America equity funds 29% -21% 30% 2% -16% -1% -20% -16% -23% 5.4% 12.7% 0.4%

Asia ex-Japan equity funds 7% -15% 14% 9% -8% 3% -1% -2% -11% -7.5% 1.6% 0.1%

GEM equity funds 6% -4% 20% 19% -2% 12% 0% -3% -7% 4.3% 10.1% 0.1%

Total bond Funds 1% -10% 17% 14% 4% 13% 0% 6% 2% 3.8% 7.9% 0.2%

Sovereign bond Funds 7% -10% 8% 19% 5% -4% -7% 4% 2% -4.3% -0.5% 0.2%

Credit funds -6% -4% 33% 11% 3% 20% 2% 4% 2% 5.3% 5.1% 0.1%

High Yield bond funds -5% -6% 27% 12% 4% 19% 5% -3% -1% 1.3% -3.1% 0.2%

Total Developed Market bond funds 1% -9% 18% 12% 4% 12% 1% 7% 3% 3.5% 7.0% 0.2%

US bond funds 1% -2% 18% 9% 5% 13% 0% 7% 4% 5.8% 8.3% 0.2%

US sov. bond funds 9% 5% 1% 8% 3% -6% -16% 10% 14% -2.1% 11.5% 0.3%

US corp. HY bond funds -9% 0% 23% 7% 6% 21% 4% -6% -4% 2.8% -5.6% 0.3%

Western Europe bonds -23% -73% -2% -3% -17% 0% 3% 9% 2% 0.1% 2.2% 0.2%

W. Europe sov. bond funds -29% -91% -22% -2% -20% -5% 3% 12% 0% -3.7% -6.3% 0.2%

W. Europe HY bond funds 25% -32% -13% 5% 6% 29% 34% 10% 17% -3.3% -4.8% 0.0%

Total Emerging Market bond funds 7% -28% 12% 40% 6% 25% -6% -1% -10% 7.3% 18.2% 0.4%

Asia ex-Japan bond funds 11% -12% 0% 51% 19% 13% -2% -10% 6% 5.7% 3.1% 0.6%

Latin America bond funds -30% -25% 41% 14% 29% 21% -16% -19% -27% -2.1% 12.4% 0.4%

Money Market funds 18% 20% -15% -15% -4% 0% -2% 1% 2% -0.9% 3.6% 1.0%

Colour legend:

12% 8% 4% 1% -1% -4% -8% -28%

>10% 5% to 10% 3% to 5% 0% to 3% -3% to 0% -5% to -3% -10% to -5% <-10%


Flows into equity fund classes (ex-ETF flows only) – a timeseries

Figure 6: Heat map showing flows into all major equity regions (ex-ETF flows) as a percentage of net asset value

Fund Category 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD

Total equity funds -4% -13% -1% -1% -4% -3% 2% -1% -3% -3.5% -2.2% 0.0%

Total Developed Market equity funds -5% -11% -3% -3% -3% -4% 2% -1% -3% -3.5% -2.7% 0.0%

US equity funds -6% -7% -3% -3% -2% -5% 0% -3% -7% -4.7% -6.2% 0.0%

Western Europe equity funds -14% -26% -5% -7% -7% -6% 4% 1% 6% -5.4% 0.0% 0.0%

Japan equity funds -34% -32% -32% -9% -13% -6% 17% 1% 11% -2.3% -8.1% 0.0%

Total Emerging Market equity funds 4% -21% 12% 10% -7% 3% 0% -3% -9% -3.0% 1.7% 0.0%

EMEA equity funds -6% -25% 0% 10% -17% -8% -19% -24% -11% -4.4% -10.8% 0.0%

Latin America equity funds 28% -28% 22% 3% -19% -7% -17% -22% -33% 2.9% 11.4% 0.0%

Asia ex-Japan equity Funds 9% -26% 12% 7% -11% -1% -1% -3% -10% -6.5% 1.5% 0.0%

GEM equity funds -1% -15% 12% 13% -1% 8% 4% -1% -7% -0.7% 2.3% 0.1%


Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 3

9 January 2018

Weekly Fund Flows

Fund flow momentum

Figure 7: Flow momentum into major fund classes (horizontal lines indicate periods of consistent 4-week inflow)

Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17

DM equities EM equities DM bond EM bond Corp. HY bond Sov. bond MM


Figure 8: Flow momentum into bond funds across regions (horizontal lines indicate periods of consistent 4-weekinflows)


DM US Western Europe EM Asia ex-Japan LatAm EMEA


Figure 9: Flow momentum into equity funds across regions (horizontal lines indicate periods of consistent 4-weekinflows)

Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17DM US Western Europe Japan EM Asia ex-Japan LatAm EMEA


Figure 10: Flow momentum into bond funds across maturity (horizontal lines indicate periods of consistent 4-weekinflows)


Floating rate Short term Intermediate term Long term



9 January 2018

Weekly Fund Flows

Fund flow weekly snapshot

Figure 11: Fund flows into total asset classes (incl. ETFs) – 1-week, 4-week average, and last 12m flows

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

Total equity funds Total bond funds MM funds DM equity funds EM equity funds DM bond funds EM bond funds

1-week flow as % of NAV (LHS) 4-week average flow as % of NAV (LHS) LTM cumulative flows as a % of NAV (RHS)


Figure 12: Fund flows into equity funds (incl. ETFs) by region – 1-week, 4-week average, and last 12m flows

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

-0.3%

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

US W. Europe Japan Asia ex-Japan EMEA LatAm



Figure 13: Fund flows into bond funds (incl. ETFs) by region & issuer – 1-week, 4-week average, and last 12m flows

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

US W. Europe Japan Asia ex-Japan EMEA LatAm Sovereign Corp high-yield




9 January 2018

Weekly Fund Flows

Figure 14: Fund flows into Europe equity sector funds (incl. ETFs) – 1-week, 4-week average, and last 12m flows

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%C

om

mo

-

dit

ies

Co

nsu

me

r

go

od

s

En

erg

y

Fin

an

cia

ls

HC

&

bio

tech

Ind

us-

tria

ls

Infr

a-

stru

ctu

re

Re

al

est

ate

Te

ch

Te

le-

com

s

Uti

liti

es



Cumulative fund flows by asset classes

Cumulative flows into all asset classes (as % of NAV)

Figure 15: Cumulative flows since 2009 Figure 16: Cumulative flows over the last 12m

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Equities Bonds MM

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Equities Bonds MM

Source: EPFR Global, Deutsche Bank calculations Source: EPFR Global, Deutsche Bank calculations

Cumulative flows into bond fund classes (as % of NAV)


-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Sovereign Credit HY

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Sovereign Credit HY



9 January 2018

Weekly Fund Flows

Cumulative fund flows by regions

Cumulative flows into equities + bonds by region (as % of NAV)


-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

DM US W. Europe Japan EM

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Jan

-17

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

r-17

Ap

r-17

Ma

y-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-1

7

Au

g-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Oct-1

7

No

v-1

7

De

c-1

7



Cumulative flows into equity regions (as % of NAV)


-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17


-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Jan

-17

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

r-17

Ap

r-17

Ma

y-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-1

7

Au

g-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Oct-1

7

No

v-1

7

De

c-1

7




-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

EM Asia ex- Japan EMEA LatAm GEM*

*globally diversified funds which invest in any emerging markets regardless of geo location

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Jan

-17

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

r-17

Ap

r-17

Ma

y-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-1

7

Au

g-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Oct-1

7

No

v-1

7

De

c-17

EM Asia ex- Japan EMEA LatAm GEM*

*globally diversified funds which invest in any emerging markets regardless of geo location



9 January 2018

Weekly Fund Flows

Cumulative flows into bond regions (as % of NAV)


-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17


-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Jan

-17

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

r-17

Ap

r-17

Ma

y-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-1

7

Au

g-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Oct-1

7

No

v-1

7

De

c-1

7



Appendix A: Liquidity pulses

A.1 Flows into equity funds by region (all including ETFs)Liquidity pulse: standard deviation from the mean of the relative between thecurrent flow (4-week average as % of NAV) and the average size of flows in thelast 13 weeks.

Figure 27: Flow into Developed Market equity funds Figure 28: Developed equity market liquidity pulse

-0.2%

-0.2%

-0.1%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

0.2%

0.3%

0.3%

Jan

-17

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

r-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

De

c-1

7

1- week flow as % of NAV 4-week average flow as % ofNAV

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Liquidity Momentum ExpandingLiquidity Momentum Expanding

Liquidity Momentum Contracting


Figure 29: Flow into US equity funds Figure 30: US equity market liquidity pulse

-0.4%

-0.3%

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

Jan

-17

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

r-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

De

c-1

7


-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Liquidity Momentum Expanding




9 January 2018

Weekly Fund Flows

Figure 31: Flow into Western Europe equity funds Figure 32: W. Europe equity market liquidity pulse

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

Jan

-17

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

r-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Oct-

17

No

v-1

7

De

c-1

7

1- week flow as % of NAV 4-week average flow as % of NAV

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17




Figure 33: Flow into Japan equity funds Figure 34: Japan equity market liquidity pulse

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

Jan

-17

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

r-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Oct-

17

No

v-1

7

De

c-1

7


-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17




Figure 35: Flow into Emerging Market equity funds Figure 36: Emerging equity market liquidity pulse

-0.3%

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

Jan

-17

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

r-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Oct-

17

No

v-1

7

De

c-1

7


-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17





9 January 2018

Weekly Fund Flows

Figure 37: Flow into Asia ex-Japan equity funds Figure 38: Asia ex-Japan equity market liquidity pulse

-0.5%

-0.4%

-0.3%

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

Jan

-17

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

r-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Oct-

17

No

v-1

7

De

c-1

7


-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17




Figure 39: Flow into Asia Pacific equity funds Figure 40: Asia Pacific equity market liquidity pulse

-1.0%

-0.8%

-0.6%

-0.4%

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

Jan

-17

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

r-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Oct-

17

No

v-1

7

De

c-1

7


-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

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Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17




A.2 Flows into bond funds by region (all including ETFs)

Liquidity pulse: standard deviation from the mean of the relative between thecurrent flow (4-week average as % of NAV) and the average size of flows in thelast 13 weeks.

Figure 41: Flow into US bond funds Figure 42: US bond market liquidity pulse

-0.3%

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

Jan

-17

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

r-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Oct-

17

No

v-1

7

De

c-1

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-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17





9 January 2018

Weekly Fund Flows

Figure 43: Flow into Western Europe bond funds Figure 44: Western Europe bond market liquidity pulse

-0.4%

-0.3%

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

Jan

-17

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

r-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Oct-

17

No

v-1

7

De

c-1

7


-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17




Figure 45: Flow into Emerging Market bond funds Figure 46: Emerging bond market liquidity pulse

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

0.9%

Jan

-17

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

r-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

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Se

p-1

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Oct-

17

No

v-1

7

De

c-1

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-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17




Figure 47: Flow into Asia ex-Japan bond funds Figure 48: Asia ex-Japan bond market liquidity pulse

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

Jan

-17

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

r-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Oct-

17

No

v-1

7

De

c-1

7


-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17





9 January 2018

Weekly Fund Flows

Figure 49: Flow into Asia Pacific bond funds Figure 50: Asia Pacific bond market liquidity pulse

-0.4%

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

Jan

-17

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

r-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Oct-

17

No

v-1

7

De

c-1

7


-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17




A.3 Flows into bond funds by issuer (all including ETFs)

Figure 51: Flow into US sovereign bond funds Figure 52: US Sovereign bond market liquidity pulse

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

Jan

-17

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

r-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Oct-

17

No

v-1

7

De

c-1

7


-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17




Figure 53: Flow into W. Europe sovereign bond funds Figure 54: W. Europe sov. bond market liquidity pulse

-0.8%

-0.6%

-0.4%

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

Jan

-17

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

r-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Oct-

17

No

v-1

7

De

c-1

7


-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17





9 January 2018

Weekly Fund Flows

A.4 Flows into Money Market funds

Figure 55: Flow into Money Market funds Figure 56: Money Market liquidity pulse

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

Jan

-17

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

r-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Oct-

17

No

v-1

7

De

c-1

7


-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17




A.5 Flows into thematic funds (all including ETFs)

Figure 57: Flow into Convertible bond funds Figure 58: Convertible bond market liquidity pulse

-1.0%

-0.8%

-0.6%

-0.4%

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

Jan

-17

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

r-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Oct-

17

No

v-1

7

De

c-1

7


-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17





9 January 2018

Weekly Fund Flows

Appendix B: methodologyEPFR tracks mutual funds on a global basis compared with other providersof flow data, and presents the flow of funds into geographical asset classesirrespective of domicile. For instance, the flows into Western European equityfunds represent the amount deposited or withdrawn in funds investing in WesternEuropean equities irrespective of where the funds are located. We believe thesedata are therefore more representative than other data available, which tend tocover funds located only in the US.

■ Most of the funds under coverage are long only, and only a minority ofthe included hedge funds have short positions, but these are insignificantrelative to total investment value.

■ All the funds included are pure plays – equity funds invest only inequities, and bond funds invest only in debt securities, and not a mixtureof both.

■ Investors are a mix of retail and institutional investors. EPFR estimatesthat 70% of them are institutional, the biggest ones being pensionfunds and insurance companies. Institutional investors account for mostof those investing in emerging market funds, but we see a higherparticipation of retail investors for Western European and US equityfunds. Unfortunately, we do not have a more accurate breakdown of theregion where institutional investors dominate and vice versa.

Focus on fund flow data as a proportion of total assets

We recommend analysing fund flow data as a percentage of total assets, ratherthan in dollar terms, because it provides a better comparison between regions:

■ First, funds investing in emerging markets, for instance, tend to besmaller than those investing in developed markets, such that weeklyflows in dollar terms do not accurately reflect the flow momentum acrossregions.

■ Second, the size of net flows (in USD) tends to change with thedevelopment/index performance of the markets they track. EPFR haswidened its coverage of fund flows over time. For a better historicalcomparison, it is therefore necessary to look at fund flows as apercentage of the covered assets, rather than in absolute terms.

■ Third, it is worth noting that the flows are provided in dollar terms andare therefore dependent on foreign exchange movements. As the dollarstrengthens or weakens relative to the funds’ respective local currencies,we could see some fluctuations in the overall funds, which are not theresult of equity investor behaviour.


9 January 2018

Weekly Fund Flows

Calculation of the liquidity pulse

The liquidity pulse compares the size of the current flow (four-week average asa percentage of NAV) with the average size of the flow in the last 13 weeks.The relative size is given in standard deviation from the mean. As a momentumindicator, it gauges investors’ confidence in certain regions and the movementof momentum in those regions. A high liquidity pulse indicates a liquiditymomentum expansion, as the asset class in question is experiencing a net inflowfor many consecutive weeks. This is an indication of above-average investorconfidence in a certain region and generally indicates a strong performance forequity markets in the respective region. A liquidity pulse that is steadily increasingindicates an increase in the amount of fund inflows into the region, and vice versa.We illustrate the output, such that the light blue data points are closely aroundthe mean and show moderate changes in momentum. The dark blue data pointsare more than one standard deviation away from the mean and indicate periodsof strongly expanding or contracting liquidity momentum.


9 January 2018

Weekly Fund Flows

The authors of this report wish to acknowledge the contributions made by AdityaArora in the preparation of this report.


9 January 2018

Weekly Fund Flows

Appendix 1

Important Disclosures

*Other information available upon request

*Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced fromlocal exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subjectcompanies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other thanthe primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosurelook-up page on our website at http://gm.db.com/ger/disclosure/DisclosureDirectory.eqsr. Aside from within this report,important conflict disclosures can also be found at https://gm.db.com/equities under the "Disclosures Lookup" and "Legal"tabs. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing.

Analyst Certification

The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition,the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendationor view in this report. Andreas Bruckner, Sebastian Raedler, Wolf von Rotberg, Tom Pearce

Equity Rating Key Equity rating dispersion and banking relationships

Buy: Based on a current 12- month view of total share-holderreturn (TSR = percentage change in share price from currentprice to projected target price plus pro-jected dividend yield ) ,we recommend that investors buy the stock.Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share-holderreturn, we recommend that investors sell the stock.Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months out and,based on this time horizon, do not recommend either a Buyor Sell.

Newly issued research recommendations and target pricessupersede previously published research.


9 January 2018

Weekly Fund Flows

Additional Information

The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively"Deutsche Bank"). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sourcesbelieved to be reliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Hyperlinks to third-party websites in this report are provided for reader convenience only. Deutsche Bank neither endorses the content noris responsible for the accuracy or security controls of those websites.??If you use the services of Deutsche Bank in connection with a purchase or sale of a security that is discussed in this report,or is included or discussed in another communication (oral or written) from a Deutsche Bank analyst, Deutsche Bank mayact as principal for its own account or as agent for another person.??Deutsche Bank may consider this report in deciding to trade as principal. It may also engage in transactions, for itsown account or with customers, in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this research report. Others withinDeutsche Bank, including strategists, sales staff and other analysts, may take views that are inconsistent with those takenin this research report. Deutsche Bank issues a variety of research products, including fundamental analysis, equity-linkedanalysis, quantitative analysis and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of communication may differfrom recommendations contained in others, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies, perspectivesor otherwise. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliates may also be holding debt or equity securities of the issuers it writeson. Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Deutsche Bank AG and its affiliates, which includes investmentbanking, trading and principal trading revenues.??Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the author as of the date of this report. They donot necessarily reflect the opinions of Deutsche Bank and are subject to change without notice. Deutsche Bank providesliquidity for buyers and sellers of securities issued by the companies it covers. Deutsche Bank research analysts sometimeshave shorter-term trade ideas that may be inconsistent with Deutsche Bank's existing longer-term ratings. Trade ideasfor equities can be found at the SOLAR link at http://gm.db.com. A SOLAR idea represents a high-conviction belief by ananalyst that a stock will outperform or underperform the market and/or a specified sector over a time frame of no less thantwo weeks and no more than six months. 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9 January 2018

Weekly Fund Flows

Macroeconomic fluctuations often account for most of the risks associated with exposures to instruments that promiseto pay fixed or variable interest rates. For an investor who is long fixed-rate instruments (thus receiving these cashflows), increases in interest rates naturally lift the discount factors applied to the expected cash flows and thuscause a loss. The longer the maturity of a certain cash flow and the higher the move in the discount factor, thehigher will be the loss. Upside surprises in inflation, fiscal funding needs, and FX depreciation rates are among themost common adverse macroeconomic shocks to receivers. But counterparty exposure, issuer creditworthiness, clientsegmentation, regulation (including changes in assets holding limits for different types of investors), changes in taxpolicies, currency convertibility (which may constrain currency conversion, repatriation of profits and/or liquidation ofpositions), and settlement issues related to local clearing houses are also important risk factors. The sensitivity of fixed-income instruments to macroeconomic shocks may be mitigated by indexing the contracted cash flows to inflation, toFX depreciation, or to specified interest rates – these are common in emerging markets. The index fixings may – byconstruction – lag or mis-measure the actual move in the underlying variables they are intended to track. The choice ofthe proper fixing (or metric) is particularly important in swaps markets, where floating coupon rates (i.e., coupons indexedto a typically short-dated interest rate reference index) are exchanged for fixed coupons. Funding in a currency that differsfrom the currency in which coupons are denominated carries FX risk. Options on swaps (swaptions) the risks typical tooptions in addition to the risks related to rates movements.??Derivative transactions involve numerous risks including market, counterparty default and illiquidity risk. Theappropriateness of these products for use by investors depends on the investors' own circumstances, including theirtax position, their regulatory environment and the nature of their other assets and liabilities; as such, investors shouldtake expert legal and financial advice before entering into any transaction similar to or inspired by the contents of thispublication. The risk of loss in futures trading and options, foreign or domestic, can be substantial. As a result of thehigh degree of leverage obtainable in futures and options trading, losses may be incurred that are greater than theamount of funds initially deposited – up to theoretically unlimited losses. Trading in options involves risk and is notsuitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, investors must review the "Characteristics and Risks ofStandardized Options”, at http://www.optionsclearing.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp. If you are unable toaccess the website, please contact your Deutsche Bank representative for a copy of this important document.??Participants in foreign exchange transactions may incur risks arising from several factors, including: (i) exchange rates canbe volatile and are subject to large fluctuations; (ii) the value of currencies may be affected by numerous market factors,including world and national economic, political and regulatory events, events in equity and debt markets and changes ininterest rates; and (iii) currencies may be subject to devaluation or government-imposed exchange controls, which couldaffect the value of the currency. Investors in securities such as ADRs, whose values are affected by the currency of anunderlying security, effectively assume currency risk.??Deutsche Bank is not acting as a financial adviser, consultant or fiduciary to you or any of your agents with respect toany information provided in this report. Deutsche Bank does not provide investment, legal, tax or accounting advice, andis not acting as an impartial adviser. Information contained herein is being provided on the basis that the recipient willmake an independent assessment of the merits of any investment decision, and is not meant for retirement accounts orfor any specific person or account type. The information we provide is directed only to persons we believe to be financiallysophisticated, who are capable of evaluating investment risks independently, both in general and with regard to particulartransactions and investment strategies, and who understand that Deutsche Bank has financial interests in the offering ofits products and services. If this is not the case, or if you or your agent are an IRA or other retail investor receiving thisdirectly from us, we ask that you inform us immediately.

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9 January 2018

Weekly Fund Flows

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9 January 2018

Weekly Fund Flows

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