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Week 3 – Assessing Risk
Risk Analysis Process Technical & systematic process Examine events Focus on causes, not symptoms Determine interrelationships Document impact in terms of
probability & consequence
Analysis Phase May actually start during identification
process Availability of experts As a natural by product of interviewing, etc.
Define likelihood or probability ratings Define ratings for severity of
consequence Establish assessment matrix
RM Execution Phases
Assessment Phase Primary objective – Identify &
analyze program risks To control the most critical risks Id factors that contribute most to
achieving desired results Id factors to use in setting cost,
schedule, and performance objectives Problem definition stage
Assessment Process Basis of most RM actions Quality of the assessment
determines the effectiveness of the RM program
Tools are available but no one tool has all the answers
Definitizes probability & consequence of potential events
Identify Risk Drivers Compile potential risk events Describe in detail to understand
significance & causes Are events that have significant
impact to program Adverse Consequence Significant Opportunity
Address Root Sources of Risk Assess processes vs acceptable best
practices Consider cost, schedule & technical
impacts Use Willoughby templates in DoD 4245.7
Templates describe an area of risk Specify technical methods for risk reduction Correlate with acquisition phases & milestones
Primarily applicable during development
Willoughby Templates
Risks in Acquisition Process Templates address risks by
common DoD program elements Discussion of risk Outline for reducing risk Relates to program phase timeline
Industrial process for design, test & production of low risk products
Process-Oriented Assessment Program critical technical
processes Evaluate program baselines
Against current & historical data Critical paths Process constraints Critical inputs from outside program
Process Metrics Track process of developing,
building & introducing the system Meeting established milestones Variances from baselines
Earned value Parametric comparisons
Details of critical path, constrained process items
Dependencies beyond program scope
Product Focused Assessment Address risk by program output
Utilize WBS breakout Constraints of master schedule Interfaces with other
programs/products Use independently or in
conjunction with process analysis techniques
Product Metrics Track development of the product Measures of effectiveness &
performance Progress in meeting requirements Test & analysis results Ability to produce & deliver Availability of resources Comparison to past experience
Areas for Assessment
Cost Assessment Use probability distributions
Define distribution & range by WBS element
Use Monte Carlo simulation to assess & aggregate
Utilize expert opinion Address performance and schedule
causes of cost risk
Ranges & Distributions
Risk Element Min Most Likely MaxSimulated
Value RationaleScrap/Rework (2,000) 10,000 12,500 10,774 Min: potential underrun in scrap/rework rates(Firm Fixed Most Likely: Expect current rates to increase 1%Price negotiated) Max: Exceed scrap/rework rates by 25%
Schedule Delay -24000 0 24000 (13,364) Min: complete 1 week early(Level of effort Most Likely: Meet negotiated scheduleLabor) Max: Exceed negotiated schedule by 1 week
Meet Performance 0 2000 20000 3,263 Min: no add'l testingReqmts (new Most Likely: 1 day add'l testingtechnology) Max: 10 days add'l testing
Total Impact: 672
Distributions
StatisticsForecast: Total Cost Impact
Summary:Display Range is from -30,000 to 50,000 Entire Range is from -20,864 to 47,999 After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 112
Statistics: ValueTrials 10000Mean 14,069Median 13,993Mode ---Standard Deviation 11,164Variance 124,630,124Skewness 0.00Kurtosis 2.68Coeff. of Variability 0.79Range Minimum -20,864Range Maximum 47,999Range Width 68,863Mean Std. Error 111.64
Percentile Value0% -20,864
10% -62820% 4,35130% 8,03540% 11,20350% 13,99360% 16,96670% 20,18180% 23,76290% 28,667
100% 47,999
Schedule Assessment Extension of Critical Path Method
Define duration ranges & distributions for scheduled activities
Use analytical techniques to identify schedule drivers
Address external schedule impacts Assess probability & magnitude of
an overrun
Schedule AssessmentTask Min
Most Likely Max
Simulated Value Rationale
AA 90 100 120 115.5 Min: 10% challenge of program estimates
AB 72 80 85 72.9 Most Likely: program estimate
AC 45 50 60 56.6 Max: worst case scenario
AD 67.5 75 95 79.4
Total A 305 324.3
Cost-Schedule Containment Chart
Modeling & Simulation Physical, mathematical, or logical
representation of system or process Implementation of a model over
time Use data or expert opinion to select
PDF (probability density function) Preferred for assessing cost or
schedule risk
Which Distribution to Use?
Which Distribution to Use?
More Modeling & Simulation As Virtual Prototyping
Replica of a system flow Duplication of a physical product Representation of a process flow
May be the only way to verify or validate design or process, or assess risk
Before Using any Model Verify
Functions as designed Validate
Represents the system it models Accredit
Is acceptable for the special purpose
ExerciseBy study group, identify how you would verify,
validate, and accredit these simulation methods Group 1 – Virtual simulation
Physical & electrical system representation Ex: Built-in training
Group 2 – Constructive simulation Represents the system & its usage Ex: Mock-up
Group 3 – Live simulation Uses real operators & equipment Ex: Operational tests
You have __ minutes for this exercise. Be prepared to discuss your results.
Establish Rating Criteria From empirical data if possible
Else, define rigorous qualitative measures
Significance based on expert opinion Polling program & industry experts
Variance from best practices Accepted rating definitions
Best Practices example Low
Little or no anticipated impact Normal mgmt attention should control at
acceptable level Medium
May cause some impact Special action & attention may be required
High Likely to cause significant impact Significant additional action & attention
would be required
Concurrency Impact Overlap between program phases From combining phases / activities Schedule adequacy Assess with best practices or historical
dataOverlap in DT&E, ProductionDT&E % Complete Concurrency Risk
>67% Low33% - 67% Moderate
<33% High0% Very High
Developing Measurement Scales
Qualitative analysis Ordinal scales Defines a relative relationship
Quantitative analysis Numerical methods Calibrated ordinal or cardinal scales May be linear or nonlinear
Qualitative Scales Levels defined by experts
Criteria used coordinated with PM Early definition avoids bias
Reflect relative relationship between risk /consequence levels Absolute value on scale not known Not valid for mathematical
manipulation
Ordinal scales Generally reflect ranked data Difference between scale values is
unknown, and not necessarily constant
Misleading if scale is defined numerically
Mathematical operations: Are at best meaningless At worst: misleading
Quantitative Scales Reflect measurable relationship
between risk /consequence levels Cardinal or validated ordinal scales Valid for mathematical manipulation
Tendency to use for calculating a ‘risk value’ Empirical data Simulation & decision analysis results
Qualitative vs. Quantitative Depends on several factors
Information available Nature & phase of program Available resources – personnel,
schedule, budget Availability of experts
Generally qualitative at first, then quantitative as needed or feasible
Probability Ratings Use empirical data if available Otherwise, use expert opinion, etc. Important to know if scales are
ordinalProbability Level
a Remote <10%
b Unlikely 10% to 35%
c Likely 35% to 65%
d Highly Likely 65% to 90%
e Near Certainty >90%
What is the Likelihood the Risk Event Will Happen
Consequence Ratings Define for technical, schedule and
cost
Assessment Matrix Define overall risk ratings
Prioritization
Multi-Voting Technique Each team member receives votes
equal to ½ the number of risks Team members vote for risk items
they think have the highest priority Risks are ranked according to the
vote
Benefits v. Biases ?
Borda Ranking Method Ranks risk by criticality based on
identified criteria Rank by impact of consequence Rank on probability of occurrence
Borda count used to rank risk by criticality
Impact Frequencies
Risk # Conseq Prob C.rank P.rank Borda Cnt Borda Rnk Per Matrix1 Critical 60%2 Serious 100%3 Serious 90%4 Critical 60%5 MInor 40%
Conseq C.freq C.rank Probaility P.freq P.rankCritical 2 91-100% 1Serious 2 61-90% 1Moderate 41-60% 2Minor 1 11-40% 1Negligible 0-10%
Rank Consequence, Probability
Risk # Conseq Prob C.rank P.rank Borda Cnt Borda Rnk Per Matrix1 Critical 60%2 Serious 100%3 Serious 90%4 Critical 60%5 MInor 40%
Conseq C.freq C.rank Probaility P.freq P.rankCritical 2 1.5 91-100% 1 1Serious 2 3.5 61-90% 1 2Moderate 41-60% 2 3.5Minor 1 5 11-40% 1 5Negligible 0-10%
C, P-rank = 1/2 [ 2 (# risks @ higher levels) +1 + # risks @ current level ]
Determine Borda Count
Risk # Conseq Prob C.rank P.rank Borda Cnt Borda Rnk Per Matrix1 Critical 60% 1.5 3.5 52 Serious 100% 3.5 1 5.53 Serious 90% 3.5 2 4.54 Critical 60% 1.5 3.5 55 MInor 40% 5 5 0
for N total risks, Borda Count = ( N - C.rank) + ( N - P.rank)
Highest count is most critical
Borda v. Matrix RankRisk # Conseq Prob C.rank P.rank Borda Cnt Borda Rnk Per Matrix
1 Critical 60% 1.5 3.5 5 1 H2 Serious 100% 4 1 5.5 0 H3 Serious 90% 4 2 4.5 3 M4 Critical 60% 1.5 3.5 5 1 H5 MInor 40% 4 5 0 4 L
Borda Rank = # risks with a higher Borda count
Risk Matrix
P \ C Negligible Minor Moderate Serious Critical0-10% L L L M M
11-40% L L M M H41-60% L M M M H61-90% M M M M H91-100% M H H H H
Assessment Documentation Goal: communicate to customer,
program management, team Define aggregation criteria
Voting method Summary level
Process, e.g. WBS break out Area of risk – cost, schedule, performance By criticality
Impact & Rating Criteria
Risk Aggregation
Summarize Rank Frequency
L Minimum impact; minimum oversight requiredM Some disruption; may need additional attentionH Unacceptable; major disruption likely; priority attention required
P \ C Negligible Minor Moderate Serious Critical0-10%
11-40% 141-60% 261-90% 1
91-100% 1
Order Risks by Borda Count
Risk # Conseq Prob C.rank P.rank Borda Cnt Borda Rnk Per Matrix2 Serious 100% 4 1 5.5 0 H1 Critical 60% 1.5 3.5 5 1 H4 Critical 60% 1.5 3.5 5 1 H3 Serious 90% 4 2 4.5 3 M5 MInor 40% 4 5 0 4 L
Aggregating Results Define reporting format that
communicates the best Group by phase, product, WBS, … Order by color, Borda count, …
Information provided Description, relationship to
requirements Action required Risk owner, …
Aggregation Results
Common Failures in RM Process Definition phase too focused on activities
Need detail on motives, timelines, resources Unclear relationships or motives
Between organizations, analysis methods, models
In identifying sources of uncertainty, risk, consequences
Addressing commonality between issues Links, interdependencies
Document RM process flow to clarify
Next Time: Risk Handling, Monitoring Read: Risk Management Guide
section 5.7
Project – Part IISubmit a paper copy of results with your final exam.
1. Explain how to map risks on your class project into the integrated master schedule you prepared for the mid-term exam and
Provide a cost-schedule containment chart with a description of the steps you took along with intermediate calculations you made to construct the cost-schedule containment chart,
Or, use MS Project (or similar tool) to calculate optimistic, expected, and pessimistic project cost and schedule estimates.
Modifications to your mid-term schedule and task loadings are allowed. (12 pts)
2. Provide a comprehensive trade study for your class project that makes use of program performance measures (technical, cost, and schedule) for decision criteria. Explain how risk considerations were included in your trade study. (12 pts)
3. Provide a risk management process flowchart suitable for presentation that has been tailored for the projected life cycle of your class project. (12 pts)
4. Provide briefing charts (in addition to #3) suitable for orientation and training of project personnel on the procedures in which risk management would be conducted on your project. (14 pts)
Mid-term Closed book, closed notes Turn Part I of your project in with
your exam paper You have 90 minutes for exam. Any questions?