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Laurie S. Beu ConsultingEnvironmental Policy, Strategy & Management

Climate Change Science andClimate Change Science andRegulatory StatusRegulatory Status

Texas Hill Country ChapterSESHA December 7, 2007 Meeting

Laurie S. BeuLaurie.Beu@earthlink.net

SESHA Texas Hill Country MeetingDecember 7, 2006

Senate Global Warming Hearing ExposesAlarmist MediaPosted by Noel Sheppard on December 6, 2006 -17:38.

Wednesday, December 6, 2006 Duck hunters feel effects of climate changeDERRICK Z. JACKSONSYNDICATED COLUMNIST

Policies needed to mitigate effects of climate change Carbon neutrality must also be seen as an image-building exercise FEATURES BUREAUPosted online: Thursday, December 07, 2006

India will suffer most due to climate change06 Dec 2006 13:51:49 GMTSource: Reuters

Warmer climate means less plankton, big problems for ocean populationsJane Kay, Chronicle Staff WriterWednesday, December 6, 2006 03 12 PM

December 6, 2006

Is Anthropogenic Climate Change a Myth?

12/4/2006 8:52:00 PM -0500CDC: Climate change a health threatBy CHRISTINE DELL'AMORE UPI Consumer Health Correspondent

CLIMATE Dec-5-2006 (860 words) Roundup.

Clergy, laypeople seek action on globalwarming, climate change By Catholic News Service

Farm research threatenedas climate change beckonsDec 5 2006Steve Dube, Western Mail

SESHA Texas Hill Country MeetingDecember 7, 2006

TopicsTopics

• The Greenhouse Effect• Overview of the IPCC• National GHG Inventories• Third Assessment Report Findings• Climate Change Impacts• Scientific Consensus• Precautionary Principle• Science Summary & Conclusion

SESHA Texas Hill Country MeetingDecember 7, 2006

The Greenhouse EffectThe Greenhouse Effect

ATMOSPHERE

EARTH

SUN

Solar radiationpasses throughtransparentatmosphere

Majority of solar radiationabsorbed by Earth’ssurface, warming it

Infrared radiationemitted from Earth’ssurface

Portion of infraredradiation absorbed andre-emitted bygreenhouse gases,resulting in warming ofEarth’s surface andlower atmosphere

Some solar radiation reflected byatmosphere and Earth’s surface(clouds, snow, ice, oceans, etc.)

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SESHA Texas Hill Country MeetingDecember 7, 2006

Human Activities IncreaseHuman Activities IncreaseAtmospheric Greenhouse GasesAtmospheric Greenhouse Gases

• Burning of Fossil Fuels, accelerated in earnest with industrialrevolution, results in additional greenhouse gases inatmosphere (CO2, CH4, N2O, etc.).

• Deforestation results in replacement of forests with grasslandsthat have less capacity for storing carbon dioxide.

SESHA Texas Hill Country MeetingDecember 7, 2006

Intergovernmental Panel onIntergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC)Climate Change (IPCC)• Established in 1988 by the World Meteorological

Organization (WMO) and the United NationsEnvironment Programme (UNEP)

• Role: “…to assess on a comprehensive,objective, open and transparent basis thescientific, technical and socio-economicinformation relevant to understanding thescientific basis of risk of human-induced climatechange…”

• Assessments based on peer reviewed andpublished scientific/technical literature

SESHA Texas Hill Country MeetingDecember 7, 2006

IPCC OrganizationIPCC Organization

Working Group IWorking Group IClimate changeClimate change

sciencescience

Working Group IIWorking Group IIImpacts, Impacts,

adaptation andadaptation andvulnerabilityvulnerability

Working Group IIIWorking Group IIIMitigationMitigation

Task forceTask forceon nationalon national

greenhouse gasgreenhouse gasinventoriesinventories

Technical supportTechnical supportunit (TSU) inunit (TSU) in

United KingdomUnited Kingdom

TSU inTSU inUnited StatesUnited States

TSU inTSU inThe NetherlandsThe Netherlands

TSU inTSU inJapanJapan

PlenaryPlenaryIPCC SecretariatIPCC Secretariat

WMO/UNEPWMO/UNEPSwitzerlandSwitzerland

Experts, authors, contributors, reviewersExperts, authors, contributors, reviewersSource: Redrawn from Vital Climate Graphics SESHA Texas Hill Country Meeting

December 7, 2006

IPCC Guidelines for NationalIPCC Guidelines for NationalGreenhouse Gas InventoriesGreenhouse Gas Inventories

• Revised guidelinespublished in 2006.

• Volume 3 IndustrialProcesses and ProductUse, Chapter 6, ElectronicsIndustry Emissions– Semiconductor Manufacturing

– Photovoltaics

– TFT Liquid Crystal Displays

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SESHA Texas Hill Country MeetingDecember 7, 2006

IPCC AssessmentsIPCC Assessments

• Three assessment reports published thus far• Third Assessment Reports, in 2001, concluded:

“There is new and stronger evidencethat most of the warming observedover the last 50 years is attributableto human activities.”

• Next assessment reports will be published in 2007

SESHA Texas Hill Country MeetingDecember 7, 2006

SESHA Texas Hill Country MeetingDecember 7, 2006

SESHA Texas Hill Country MeetingDecember 7, 2006

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SESHA Texas Hill Country MeetingDecember 7, 2006Source: OSTP

Levels of GHGs haveincreased withincreasingindustrialization

Clear correlationbetween CO2 levels andtemperature

Current CO2 levelsoutside bounds ofnatural variability

Rate of change inCO2 unprecedented

SESHA Texas Hill Country MeetingDecember 7, 2006

SESHA Texas Hill Country MeetingDecember 7, 2006

ImpactImpact on Water Cycle on Water Cycle

More SevereDrought

Source: GRDF Source: GSFC/NASASource: The Berkley Lab,Kathy Anderson

Temperature increases speed up water cycle ⇒

Larger storms Severe flooding

Extreme WeatherExtreme Weather

SESHA Texas Hill Country MeetingDecember 7, 2006

Impact on ArticImpact on Artic• Modeling by Max Planck

Institute for Meteorologyreported Sept. 2005:– Up to 4 degree increase in

temperature by 2100

– Sea level rise of up to 30 cm

– Ice-free Artic predictedduring summers by end ofcentury

Image: Michael Bottinger / DKRZ / Max PlanckSociety 2005

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SESHA Texas Hill Country MeetingDecember 7, 2006

Additional ImpactsAdditional Impacts

Animals and Plants• Range shifts (latitudinal or

altitudinal)• Abundance changes• Change in growing season

length• Earlier flowering;

emergence of insects;migration and egg-layingin birds

• Morphology shifts (e.g.body & egg sizes)

HumansSensitive Systems• Water resources• Agriculture, forestry, fisheries• Human settlements• Industry, energy, financial

servicesVulnerabilities• Food and water security• Incomes and livelihoods• Human health• Infrastructure

SESHA Texas Hill Country MeetingDecember 7, 2006

Scientific ConsensusScientific ConsensusAll major scientific bodies in the U.S. whosemembers have expertise in the matter (NAS, AMS,AAAS, AGU) concur that human activities arecontributing to the accumulation of greenhousegases in the atmosphere, causing temperatures torise.

In a survey of 928 abstracts for papers publishedin peer reviewed scientific journals between 1993and 2003 with key words “climate change”, NONENONEdisagreed with the consensus or argued thatcurrent climate change is natural variation.Source: Science 3 December 2004: Vol. 306. no. 5702, p. 1686

SESHA Texas Hill Country MeetingDecember 7, 2006

Skeptics Are Coming AroundSkeptics Are Coming Around……

“From a Shell point of view, the debate'sover. When 90 plus percent of the world'sleading figures believe greenhouse gaseshave impacted the climate of the earth,who is Shell to say that let's debate thescience? We're not going to debate thescience.”

October 23, 2006 National Press Club speech by John Hofmeister,President, Shell Oil Company

SESHA Texas Hill Country MeetingDecember 7, 2006

Precautionary PrinciplePrecautionary Principle

Where an activity raises threats of harm tothe environment or human health,precautionary measures should be takeneven if some cause and effect relationshipsare not fully established scientifically.

Source: Wingspread Statement, January 1998

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SESHA Texas Hill Country MeetingDecember 7, 2006

Science Summary and ConclusionScience Summary and Conclusion• While political debate goes on, the scientific

consensus is clear:Human activities are increasing theHuman activities are increasing theconcentration of greenhouse gases inconcentration of greenhouse gases inthe atmosphere, causing temperaturesthe atmosphere, causing temperaturesto rise.to rise.

• U.S. national greenhouse gas reductionefforts are currently voluntary; however,

Industry should prepare for regulation.Industry should prepare for regulation.