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***AFFIRMATIVE UPDATES***

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Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates

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Morality

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The Embargo is Immoral

Sanctions against Cuba fail and are immoralJason Ditz, news editor at Antiwar.com, September 25, 2013, “Sanctions: Cruel and counterproductive,” Aljarzeera, Accessed 9/25/2013, http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2013/09/sanctions-cruel-counterproductive-2013924123655719523.htmlThe US, ever the fan of unilateral action, has imposed sanctions on no less than 17 foreign nations, with sanctions targeted at organisations covering dozens of others. Cuba’s sanctions stand the longest, dating back to 1962 and with little to show for it except for a black market for Cuban cigars in the US. For the aggressor, sanctions are a measure short of military action, cheaper and less overtly messy. Yet they are, at their core, a form of collective punishment, fraught with all the same moral and practical problems, and a history of overwhelming failure.

U.S. human rights justifications for the Cuban embargo are hypocriticalJamison Maeda, Staff Writer for Clare Daly TD, August 27, 2013, “End the American Embargo Against Cuba,”http://www.unitedleftalliance.org/end-the-american-embargo-against-cuba/, Accessed 9/25/2013Since 1960, the United States has imposed an embargo against the island of Cuba, restricting travel and commerce between the two countries. For over 50 years now, the US government has claimed that it is in Cuba’s best interest to continue the embargo, the main reason being human rights violations. This seems rather hypocritical considering the US has frequently been criticized for human rights violations, ironically most taking place in America’s military prison Guantanamo Bay, in Cuba. China has also been accused of serious human rights violations but remains America’s number one trading partner. Human rights is a rather weak argument for the American government considering that even the leading political dissidents in Cuba want the embargo lifted.

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Security K Advantage

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Internal Links

Engagement dismantles structures of confrontation between U.S. & CubaArturo Lopez-Levy, 2011, lecturer and PhD Candidate at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver, May, Change In Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy, Accessed 9/18/2013, http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdfThe logic behind dismantling structures of confrontation is powerful because it creates a wedge between the leadership and the population, particularly its own bases. The most powerful argument the Cuban leadership has used to impose restrictions on the civil liberties of the population is that the country is under a national emergency due to long-standing hostility of the United States. If there is a thaw in U.S.-Cuba relations, it would create pressure for a re-assessment of the nature of the perceived threat, and foment discussion about the many political projects that exist within Cuba’s nationalist camp and its population in general.

Embargoes are geared toward propping up national security interestsRoger R. Betancourt, Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Maryland, July 2013, “SHOULD THE US LIFT THE CUBAN EMBARGO? YES; IT ALREADY HAS; AND IT DEPENDS!,” http://econweb.umd.edu/~betancourt/development/ LiftingtheEmbargopaper.ASCEversion.July.pdf, Accessed 9/15/2013From an economic point of view, embargoes are restrictions on economic activities for political or policy purposes. Embargoes involving restrictions on flows of goods across borders are the most well-known due to their impact on international relations. Nevertheless, restrictions on flows of goods and services across lower level jurisdictions in a federal system are internal versions that are conceptually equivalent to the international ones. For instance, restrictions on the quantities of an item such as cigarettes that can be transported across state or provincial borders play the same role as restrictions on items that can cross international borders. In the international context one frequent justification for these restrictions that usually goes unchallenged is national security; in the internal context one frequent justification for these restrictions that usually goes unchallenged is enforcement of different tax policies by different internal jurisdictions.

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Security Impact Extension

The infusion of preemption changes security logic to construct a permanent state of exception in the illusory hope of an ideal future. This guarantees sovereign violenceLiam P.D. Stockdale, Ph.D. candidate in International Relations, Department of Political Science, McMaster University, 2010, Presented at the Canadian Political Science Association Annual Conference Concordia University, Montréal, QC, 1-3 June 2010, “Securitizing the Future? A Critical Interrogation of the Pre-emptive Turn in the Theory and Practice of Contemporary Security,” ACC. 8/30/2013, http://www.academia.edu/430468/Securitizing_the_Future_A_Critical_Interrogation_of_the_Pre-Emptive_Turn_In_the_Theory_and_ Practice_ of_Contemporary_Security, Accessed 8/28/2013The logical absurdities underwriting the idea of pre-emptive security thus become clearer, as what results from the introduction of pre-emption into security logic is the necessary permanence of the state of exception in the present. To reiterate, under the logic of pre-emption, the passage of time ensures that the future will become the present, whence it too will be “taken hostage” by sovereign power in an effort to secure what is now the future, which by definition can never be arrived at due to the exigencies of time. The problem is thus that, while we may seek to secure the future, we nevertheless always exist and act in what might be termed the perpetual present , since the present is the only temporal space in which interventions can be practically undertaken and experiences of security can occur. The corollary is that, if the logic of pre-emption holds, the imagined future that these interventions are ostensibly enacted to secure is necessarily never realizable , since any evaluation of whether it has been securely realized can only occur in the present, which is always already constructed as a state of exception under the logic of pre-emption. Indeed, the present can never be(come) the ideally imagined future that is ostensibly being secured, since pre-emptive security’s focus upon the future-as-referent necessitates that the present can only ever be conceived as the exceptional temporal space in which interventions to secure that future are to be undertaken. The experienced present thus cannot ever be seen as a manifestation of the risk-free “future prefect”, since the inherent unknowability of the future is a constant threatening spectre in the present. This ensures that, under the logic of pre-emption, the present is inevitably and perpetually subject to arbitrary and potentially violent sovereign interventions.

The preemptive turn in security logic has emptied it of all meaning—i.e. robbed us of all the benefits cited in their “security good arguments”—and made the everyday space for exceptional sovereign interventionLiam P.D. Stockdale, Ph.D. candidate in International Relations, Department of Political Science, McMaster University, 2011, “Thinking Through Pre-emptive Security: Catastrophe, Imagination, Temporality, Affect, Presented at the Canadian Political Science Association Annual Conference, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, ON, 16-18 May, 2011, http://www.academia.edu/487332/Thinking_Through_Pre-emptive_Security_Catastrophe_Imagination_Temporality_Affect, Accessed 8/28/2013The upshot is that the emergence of pre-emption appears to have transformed the very idea of security into something of “an empty concept,” since its identification with the future in this way seems to imply that “as much as we strive for it, it appears to be an unreachable ideal” (Kessler & Daase 2008: 214). Pre-emption’s fixation on the future thus not only orients political action toward perpetually mitigating the potentially imminent catastrophe implied by the future’s contingent

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openness; it also renders the purported ends of this action—namely, “security” as such—somewhat aporetic, as it locates their realization in a temporal space that is always to-come. This in turn allows the lived present to be perpetually cast in instrumental terms as the space of pre-emptive (exceptional) sovereign intervention, thus transforming the exception into the everyday norm, and radically altering the political relationship between security and subjectivity. This all suggests that the pre-emptive turn has introduced a radically new articulation of the concept of security into the discursive framework within which the governance of global security takes place. Critical scholars must remain sensitive to what is at stake as a result, particularly with regard to the ever-changing relationships between security and political subjectivity in the current global political moment.

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DA Answers

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A2: Democracy DA - Reforms Failing Now

Castro’s reforms are too limited, too slow & contradictoryEmilio Morales, Cuban economist, ex-head of strategic planning for marketing in the CIMEX corporation, September 2, 2013, “Reforms in Cuba: The Last Utopia?,” http://www.havanatimes.org/?p=98499&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ campaign=Feed%3A+havanatimes%2Fapge+(Havana+Times+Posts), Accessed 9/5/2013When Raul Castro initiated reforms aimed at transforming the Cuban economic model, Cuban and foreign experts hoped that they were finally glimpsing a change on the horizon following more than five decades of mistaken policies. However, despite having further reach than those changes effected in the nineties, Raul Castro’s reforms have turned out to be limited, shallow, slow and contradictory.

Cuban reforms are failing nowEmilio Morales, Staff Writer, (translated by Joseph L. Scarpaci), August 31, 2013, “Cuban reforms: the ultimate utopia?,” The Havana Consulting Group, http://thehavanaconsultinggroups.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=348%3Acuban-reforms-the-ultimate-utopia&catid=47%3Aeconomy&lang=en, Accessed 9/15/2013When Cuban President Raúl Castro began the reforms to transform the island’s economic model, Cuban economists and foreign experts alike expected a bright future after more than five days decades of mistaken government policies and a centralized economy. Nevertheless, three years after the reforms began, the results have disappointed. The reforms that began under Raúl Castro's government, despite having the greatest reach since those were carried out in the 1990s by his predecessor, have been rather limited, fairly shallow, slow, and somewhat contradictory.

Economic reforms are failing. The country’s economy is on life support due to structure problemsEmilio Morales, Cuban economist, ex-head of strategic planning for marketing in the CIMEX corporation, September 2, 2013, “Reforms in Cuba: The Last Utopia?,” http://www.havanatimes.org/?p=98499&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ campaign=Feed%3A+havanatimes%2Fapge+(Havana+Times+Posts), Accessed 9/5/2013The reforms rise out of obsolete structures that have not been dismantled, with the goal of conserving socialism. From there on, they become a contradiction in themselves. In the current context, the economic situation on the island is chaotic; the accumulated errors and failures of more than half a century comprise a heavy obstacle stifling the development of any real economic and financial transformation. The economy of the country functions like a bankrupt business, surviving only thanks to outside support: the Cuban Diaspora and the aid from Venezuela are the two factors that today stave off the system’s collapse.

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A2: Democracy DA - Lacks Private Investment Now

The dual currency system hampers private investmentEmilio Morales, Staff Writer, (translated by Joseph L. Scarpaci), August 31, 2013, “Cuban reforms: the ultimate utopia?,” The Havana Consulting Group, http://thehavanaconsultinggroups.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=348%3Acuban-reforms-the-ultimate-utopia&catid=47%3Aeconomy&lang=en, Accessed 9/15/2013The dual currency system will also be very difficult to eliminate in light of the low productivity of the labor force and the outlandish state levels of employment whose employees remain very unproductive. Witness, for example, the recent opening of the real-estate market, which has proven to be more speculative than one of sales. Prices ascribed to houses bear no relationship with the purchasing power of the Cuban people. The average price of a house in Cuba at the national level is $31,489 CUCs (convertible currency units, equivalent to $1 USD), while the mean monthly salary is $216 CUCs. In this new market context, there is a lack of financial mechanisms to stimulate the sale of homes and to finance mortgages. State banks play a very small role in providing loans to finance the construction and repair of homes, therefore making the as a place where cash is the only vehicle for acquiring new homes; this is a tedious process that is not attractive to many Cubans.

The government stifles most private investmentEmilio Morales, Staff Writer, (translated by Joseph L. Scarpaci), August 31, 2013, “Cuban reforms: the ultimate utopia?,” The Havana Consulting Group, http://thehavanaconsultinggroups.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=348%3Acuban-reforms-the-ultimate-utopia&catid=47%3Aeconomy&lang=en, Accessed 9/15/2013Capital investment remains discriminatory because only foreign companies and investors can do so. Cubans are not allowed to invest, regardless of whether they live on or off the island. The government encourages neither private firms from operating nor individual entrepreneurship. Instead, it insists on pursuing the tried old and unsuccessful path led by cooperatives.

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A2: Medical Brain Drain DA - Uniqueness Answers

Cuba is sending thousands of doctors around the world, which makes “brain drain” terminally non-uniqueMimi Whitefield, Staff Writer, August 22, 2013, “Thousands of Cuban doctors headed to Brazil,” Miami Herald, Accessed 9/6/2013, http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/ 08/22/3580109/thousands-of-cuban-doctors-headed.htmlFacing a physician shortage, Brazil plans to import 4,000 doctors from Cuba to work mostly in poor, rural areas at a cost of more than $200 million. The first installment of 400 Cubans to participate in Brazil’s Mais Médicos (More Doctors) program will begin arriving this weekend and will undergo three weeks of orientation along with other doctors who have earned their diplomas abroad, said Brazil’s Ministry of Health. All 400 doctors in the first wave have participated in other international missions for Cuba, which sends healthcare professionals to more than 50 countries from South Africa to Bolivia. The best known of Cuba’s medical exchanges is the so-called doctors-for-oil program in Venezuela. As many as 35,000 Cuban healthcare professionals, security advisors, teachers and sports trainers work in Venezuela in exchange for some 96,000 barrels of Venezuelan oil daily at subsidized prices.

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A2: Juragua DA

There is no chance of Juragua start-up. Even Fidel declined Russia’s offer to pay for constructionAtlas Obscura, Blog/Staff Writer, September 11, 2013, “Concrete Crypt for Communist Dreams: Cuba's Unfinished Nuclear Power Plant,” Slate, http://www.slate.com/blogs/atlas_obscura/2013/09/11/the_unfinished_cuban_nuclear_power_plant_abandoned_when_ the_ussr_collapsed.html, Accessed 9/18/2013In 1976, Communist companions Cuba and the Soviet Union signed a deal to build a nuclear power plant in Juraqua. Construction on the first of two nuclear reactors began in 1983 with a target operational date of 1993. But a few years before the reactor's scheduled completion, the USSR collapsed. The flow of crucial Soviet funds ceased, 300 Russian technicians went home, and Cuba was forced to suspend construction on its badly needed power plant. Lacking nuclear fuel and without the primary components installed, the plant sat in limbo until December 2000, when Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a visit to Cuba. Putin offered Fidel Castro a belated $800 million to finish the first reactor. Despite Cuba's reliance on imported oil for power, Castro declined. Project status: officially abandoned.

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Cuba Energy Affirmative Updates

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Renewables Increasing Now

India is helping Cuba develop renewable energy projects nowNatalie Obiko Pearson, Staff Writer, September 20, 2013, “India Offers Credit to Cuba for Renewable Energy Projects,” Bloomberg News, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-20/india-offers-credit-to-cuba-for-renewable-energy-projects.html, Accessed 9/19/2013India is offering lines of credit to Cuba to set up renewable-energy projects that would help reduce the Caribbean nation’s dependence on oil imports. Indian Renewable-Energy Minister Farooq Abdullah met Marino Murillo, vice president of Cuba’s council of ministers, to offer assistance, according to an Indian government statement. Cuba, seeking to diversify its energy mix and curb reliance on crude imports, consumes three times as much oil as it produces, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The island nation asked for India’s help in developing wind farms and power plants that run on bagasse, a waste product of sugar cane, according to the statement.

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Cuba Terrorist List Affirmative Updates

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Inherency

There is no chance Cuba will get removed from the list nowPaul Have, Staff Writer, September 3, 2013, “U.S. keeps Cuba on state sponsors of terrorism list,” The Oakland Press, Accessed 9/15/2013, http://www.theoaklandpress.com/general-news/20130502/us-keeps-cuba-on-state-sponsors-of-terrorism-listA State Department spokesman said Wednesday that Washington has no plans to remove Cuba from a list of state sponsors of terrorism that also includes Iran, Syria and Sudan. That is sure to ruffle feathers in Havana, which vehemently denies any links to terrorism. Cuba's government contends its inclusion on the list is a political vendetta by a U.S. government that has kept an economic embargo on the Communist-run island for 51 years. State Department spokesman Patrick Ventrell said Washington "has no current plans to remove Cuba" from the list, which is included in the department's annual report on terrorism.

U.S. position on Cuban terrorism is firmly entrenchedMartin Michaels, Staff Writer, July 29, 2013, “Faith-Based Group Challenges Cuban Embargo, One Humanitarian Trip At A Time,” Cuba Confidential, http://cubaconfidential.wordpress.com/tag/alan-gross/, Accessed 9/16/2013What are the major barriers? The U.S. government still sees Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism and remains firmly entrenched in policies driven by a Cold War opposition to government’s alignment with the Soviet Union. There are major barriers regarding the release of political prisoners on both sides, including a group of Cubans known as the “Cuban 5.” Five Cuban intelligence officers thwarted a terrorist plot hatched in Cuba against their country. They were arrested and charged with espionage and conspiracy to commit murder in 1998. Cuba sees their incarceration as an unacceptable, politically motivated move and has demanded their immediate release.

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GITMO Affirmative Updates

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Spending Adv. – GITMO Costs A lot

GITMO detention costs the U.S. over $450 million a yearDiane Feinstein, (D-CA) chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee and Dick Durbin, (D-IL) chair of the defense appropriations subcommittee, August 22, 2013, “Closing Gitmo: America’s military didn’t fail, it’s our policymakers,” The Record (New Jersey), Accessed 9/18/2013, http://www.northjersey.com/news/opinions/Closing_Gitmo_Americas_military_didnt_fail_its_our_policymakers.html?page=allThe detention facility on our military base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, is holding 166 individuals. Most of them have been there a decade or more. Operating Guantanamo costs about $450 million a year — or about $2.7 million a detainee, according to the Defense Department. Consider this: It costs $78,000 to hold a convicted terrorist in the most secure federal prison in the United States, Supermax in Colorado. With the sequester stretching budgets and Defense Department employees under furloughs, the United States is spending, per Guantanamo detainee, roughly 35 times the amount it spends at Supermax detaining a convicted terrorist. This is a massive misuse of taxpayer money.

Continuing GITMO costs us half a billion dollars a yearThomas Wilner, Fmr. counsel of record for Guantánamo detainees, September 4, 2013, “Guantánamo: The President Could Close It Tomorrow If He Really Wants to,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/thomas-wilner/guantanamo-the-president-_b_3842879.html, Accessed 9/18/2013There is a great cost to this inaction. The pentagon recently reported that the Guantánamo prison costs U.S. taxpayers almost a half-billion dollars a year - an incredible $3 plus million per prisoner per year, about 40 times the cost of a U.S. super max prison. And we are paying that even though most of these men - 84 of the 164 detainees still there - were cleared for release more than three and a half years ago by a special task force made up of top U.S. security and law enforcement officials. Yet, they remain imprisoned, and we continue to pay. Why?

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Soft Power Adv. – Terrorism internals

GITMO detention undermines U.S. global credibility and reduces anti-terrorism cooperation with alliesThomas Wilner, Fmr. counsel of record for Guantánamo detainees, September 4, 2013, “Guantánamo: The President Could Close It Tomorrow If He Really Wants to,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/thomas-wilner/guantanamo-the-president-_b_3842879.html, Accessed 9/18/2013Guantánamo continues to burden U.S. foreign policy, undermining our credibility and providing an excuse for every foreign dictator who abuses human rights. As the president has said: "GTMO has become a symbol around the world for an America that flouts the rule of law." He has also said exactly what must be done: "We've got to close Guantánamo... It is expensive. It is inefficient. It hurts us in terms of our international standing. It lessens cooperation with our allies on counterterrorism efforts. It is a recruitment tool for extremists. It needs to be closed." Great words -- but very little action.

GITMO continues to devastate U.S. soft power, promotes terrorism, and violates international lawDiane Feinstein, (D-CA) chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee and Dick Durbin, (D-IL) chair of the defense appropriations subcommittee, August 22, 2013, “Closing Gitmo: America’s military didn’t fail, it’s our policymakers,” The Record (New Jersey), Accessed 9/18/2013, http://www.northjersey.com/news/opinions/Closing_Gitmo_Americas_military_didnt_fail_its_our_policymakers.html?page=allGuantanamo has devastated our reputation as a champion of human rights, weakened our international partnerships and remains a powerful recruiting tool for terrorists. The hopelessness at Guantanamo led detainees to go on a hunger strike this year — more than 100 at its peak. Twice a day, military personnel force-feed them with a tube inserted through their noses. For some detainees, this has been going on for more than five months. This large-scale force-feeding violates international norms and medical ethics.

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Soft Power Adv. – ILaw internals

We should close GITMO now. It undermines international law and U.S. credibilityGulf News, Staff Writer, September 15, 2013, “Guantanamo Bay prison must be shut down,” Accessed 9/18/2013, http://gulfnews.com/opinions/editorials/guantanamo-bay-prison-must-be-shut-down-1.1231415The prison in Guantanamo Bay should be shut down. It is a gross abuse of the American and international legal systems, and a betrayal of the high standards to which the US seeks to hold itself. When Kuwait’s Emir Shaikh Sabah Al Ahmad Al Sabah met US President Barack Obama last week and pressed for the quick release of two Kuwaitis who are still held in Guantanamo, Obama should have had no hesitation in releasing the men to Kuwaiti justice. It is wrong that he did not do so, and it is wrong that Guantanamo is still open at all. US president George W. Bush opened the Guantanamo facility during his ‘war on terror’ in January 2002 to contain what the US Defence Department described as extraordinarily dangerous prisoners. It was a travesty of justice that the US Department of Justice advised Bush that Guantanamo was outside US legal jurisdiction. The 779 prisoners were held without legal restraint on their captors, and well-established allegations of torture and abuse have consistently surfaced. Obama’s failure to close Guantanamo despite his campaign commitment is a grim reminder to the rest of the world that the US does not really care about legal process despite all its rhetoric. Guantanamo should close and the prisoners should be taken to the US where they should be tried under the normal US legal system, and their sorry limbo ended.

The criminal justice system should handle detainees and terrorists. Closing GITMO reaffirms U.S. commitment to international law and human rightsKen Grunow and Geraldine Grunow, Amnesty International, August 29, 2013, “Our way out of Guantanamo,” Detroit News, http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20130829/OPINION01/308290006, Accessed 9/19/2013As long-time members of Amnesty International, we have been working to close Guantanamo Bay prison because it violates much of what the US purports to stand for regarding respect for law, for universal rights, and for the right of each individual to justice. Everyone wants justice for the 9/11 attacks and also security from any further attacks. The way to achieve both is through adherence to human rights and to the rule of law. Terrorists can be effectively neutralized through the existing criminal justice and law-enforcement systems in compliance with human rights. Guantanamo must be closed.

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A2: Terrorism DA

Closing GITMO does not mean we are soft on terrorismDiane Feinstein, (D-CA) chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee and Dick Durbin, (D-IL) chair of the defense appropriations subcommittee, August 22, 2013, “Closing Gitmo: America’s military didn’t fail, it’s our policymakers,” The Record (New Jersey), Accessed 9/18/2013, http://www.northjersey.com/news/opinions/Closing_Gitmo_Americas_military_didnt_fail_its_our_policymakers.html?page=allAs chairwoman of the Senate Intelligence Committee and chairman of the defense appropriations subcommittee, respectively, we are committed to preventing terrorist attacks. We believe terrorists deserve swift and sure justice, and severe prison sentences. But holding detainees on an island off U.S. shores for years — without charge — is an abomination. It is not an effective administration of justice, does not serve our national security interests and is not consistent with our country’s history as a champion of human rights. It is time to close Guantanamo.

Fear of prisoners increasing terrorism is unfounded. Most detainees have been cleared yet remain, while the practice undermines counter-terrorism cooperationThomas Wilner, Fmr. counsel of record for Guantánamo detainees, September 4, 2013, “Guantánamo: The President Could Close It Tomorrow If He Really Wants to,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/thomas-wilner/guantanamo-the-president-_b_3842879.html, Accessed 9/18/2013There is always a risk, of course, that a released prisoner will do something bad. Every judge and governor faces that risk in releasing a prisoner. And, if that happens, the person or political party authorizing the release may well face criticism. But fear of criticism cannot stop us from doing what is right. How do you explain to the 84 cleared men that they must remain in prison because it is politically inconvenient to let them out? How do you explain to the world that we must keep Guantánamo open, even though it stains our reputation and compromises our ability to combat terrorism, because we fear political criticism? This president must have the courage to follow-up his words with action. Further delay is not tolerable.

Detainees aren’t a security riskThomas Wilner, Fmr. counsel of record for Guantánamo detainees, September 4, 2013, “Guantánamo: The President Could Close It Tomorrow If He Really Wants to,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/thomas-wilner/guantanamo-the-president-_b_3842879.html, Accessed 9/18/2013The fact is that only a small number of the detainees now at Guantánamo are considered to pose a significant threat. Most were picked up soon after 9/11 in and around Afghanistan and sold into captivity by local tribes people for bounties. They were not the leaders, who are known to have escaped, but at most low level foot soldiers, as well as a lot of innocent people swept up by mistake. It was generally recognized by the summer of 2004 that none of the detainees then at Guantánamo was a significant player. As a June 21, 2004 article in The NY Times reported: "In interviews, dozens of high-level military, intelligence and law-enforcement officials in the United States, Europe and the Middle East said, that contrary to the repeated assertions of senior administration officials, none of the detainees at the United States Naval Base at Guantánamo Bay ranked as leaders or senior operatives of al-Qaeda."

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Indefinite Detention Expansion

Failure to close GITMO during Obama’s second term makes widespread indefinite detention inevitable, destroying U.S. credibilityHuman Rights First, July 2013, “Guantanamo: A Comprehensive Exit Strategy,” http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/uploads/ pdfs/close-GTMO-july-2013.pdf, Accessed 9/18/2013But the single most important element to any viable closure plan is sustained leadership from the president. Without it, the administration will surely find that a substantial portion of president’s second term has passed without material progress toward closing Guantanamo, even as the president ends the wars that gave rise to it in the first place. Failing to close Guantanamo by the end of the president’s second term risks far more than a tarnished legacy or breaking a key campaign pledge. If President Obama bequeaths Guantanamo to his successor, it could lay the groundwork for a future administration to establish a permanent indefinite detention facility with an alternative system of justice for terrorism suspects that would be less effective and less credible to the rest of the world.

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MEXICO AFF.

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Silver Adv. Internals

Declining oil production undermines Mexican silver industrySteve St. Angelo, Staff Writer, August 27, 2013, “Future Silver Supply in Question as Mexico Oil Production Declines,” SRSrocco Report, http://www.silverseek.com/article/future-silver-supply-question-mexico-oil-production-declines-12439, Accessed 9/21/2013The decline in Mexico's oil production will put severe pressure on its gold and silver mining industry. Fresnillo is forecasting its silver production to grow from 37 million oz in 2012 to 65 million oz by 2018. Furthermore, many other silver mining companies in the country also plan on growing their silver production by the end of the decade. Few analysts are forecasting how a falling oil supply in Mexico will impact the country's mining industry. We also must remember, this pattern of falling oil production and increased domestic consumption is taking place in most of the oil exporting countries of the world.

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Oil Production Decreasing Now

Without oil modernization, Mexico will soon become a net importerJerry Pacheco, executive director of the International Business Accelerator, a nonprofit trade counseling program of the New Mexico Small Business Development Centers Network, September 1, 2013, “Reforming Mexico’s oil company daunting,” Christian Science Monitor, http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/the-monitors-view/2013/0908/Mexico-s-reforms-are-key-to-US-immigration-reform, Accessed 9/21/2013I have written several times on the quandary the Mexican government faces with its state-owned petroleum company, PEMEX, which was nationalized in 1938 and has become a symbol of Mexico’s independence and stand against foreigners. Mexico, one of the most prolific petroleum producers in the world, soon will approach the status of being a net oil importer if PEMEX is not modernized and made more efficient. While oil is still abundant in Mexico, PEMEX has lagged behind other oil companies in utilizing technology to seek new oil fields and shale deposits, and to efficiently process its resources. Even though PEMEX ranks in the top ten of all petroleum producers with more than $100 billion in annual revenues, the Mexican government taxes this company to support up to 40 percent of the national budget, leaving the company with very little to invest in technologies and innovation.

PEMEX is in shambles. Mexican oil has continually declined over the last eight yearsJerry Pacheco, executive director of the International Business Accelerator, a nonprofit trade counseling program of the New Mexico Small Business Development Centers Network, September 1, 2013, “Reforming Mexico’s oil company daunting,” Christian Science Monitor, http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/the-monitors-view/2013/0908/Mexico-s-reforms-are-key-to-US-immigration-reform, Accessed 9/21/2013Having spent time in PEMEX headquarters in Mexico City, often referred to as the PEMEX Tower, I saw first-hand the bloated nature of the company, with thousands and thousands of workers occupying every inch of space in this multi-story building. Today, PEMEX holds the dubious distinction of ranking dead last among major oil companies in worker productivity. I had a friend in Mexico City who used to tell me that landing a job with PEMEX was like winning the lottery. The union representing the more than 160,000 PEMEX workers has traditionally negotiated sweet deals for its constituents, allowing many to retire at the young age of 50 and to collect more than 100 percent of their salaries for the rest of their lives. In turn, the union bosses live extravagant lifestyles, with many seen driving around in expensive Ferraris or cruising around the world in private jets, not worried about the corrupt image of the company they reinforce. Industry experts estimate that PEMEX can be run with a third to one-half fewer employees. Meanwhile, oil production in Mexico has actually declined by 25 percent during the past eight years, exactly at the time that world oil prices have risen to new highs. This comes at the same time that Mexico finds itself forced to import more and more gasoline for its growing economy and population.

Mexican oil production has declined for a decade with new reliance on reserve depletionClaira Lloyd, Staff Writer, September 10, 2013, “Mexico’s slowly reforming oil and gas industry,” Energy Global, Accessed 9/21/2013,

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http://www.energyglobal.com/news/processing/articles/Mexico_oil_gas_slow_reform632.aspx#.Uj374oYpBngThe report expects there to be a steady decline in Mexico’s proven oil reserves and production over the next 10 years, with the country moving to become a net importer rather than one of the world’s biggest net exporters. Production has been declining for several years and there is a significant amount of time left before new production comes online. Also, some of the country’s most important fields are maturing at a rapid rate, encouraging the trend in reserve depletion.

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Pushing for New Oil Investiments

Mexico is pushing new infrastructure funding to attract investorsWorld Finance, Staff Writer, September 13, 2013, “Mexican development attracts outside interest,” Accessed 9/21/2013, http://www.worldfinance.com/inward-investment/mexican-development-attracts-outside-interestFinancing the huge upheaval of Mexico’s infrastructure network will provide international investors with plenty of opportunities, and it will be bolstered by the government’s plan to funnel $316bn towards such projects over the next five years. Recently appointed President Enrique Peña Nieto’s proposals could potentially add five percent to GDP during this period, as his country sets about updating its roads, railways, ports and telecommunications infrastructure. According to research by alternative investment analysts Preqin, many infrastructure funds specifically focused on Mexico have raised considerable amounts of capital in the last few years. Both 2010 and 2012 have been described as being strong years for Mexican-focused infrastructure funds, with the total amounts raised at $615m and $720m respectively. Funds currently seeking capital are reported to be targeting as much as $825m.

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Needs New Technology for Oil

With new reforms, Mexico will still need technology to exploit oil potentialPatrice Hill, Staff Writer, September 12, 2013, “Mexico could make North America the world leader in oil production,” Washington Times, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/sep/12/mexico-could-make-north-america-the-world-leader-i/?page=all, Accessed 9/21/2013Despite having some of the largest unexploited oil reserves in the world, Mexican production has declined sharply in recent years. The state oil company, Pemex, lacks the technical expertise to drill in the deep waters of the Gulf or tap into the large deposits of oil and gas trapped in shale rock and other complex geological formations on land. U.S. and other foreign oil companies have the technology Mexico needs, but they have long been prohibited by law from operating there.

Despite massive oil potential, Mexico still lacks technology for developmentPatrice Hill, Staff Writer, September 12, 2013, “Mexico could make North America the world leader in oil production,” Washington Times, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/sep/12/mexico-could-make-north-america-the-world-leader-i/?page=all, Accessed 9/21/2013Although Mexico has the sixth-largest shale gas reserves in the world, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a lack of the technology needed to retrieve it has forced Mexico to become a big importer of gas from the U.S. to satisfy fast-growing domestic demand for the relatively clean fuel. All that could change under Mr. Pena Nieto’s legislation. Although the proposed reforms face an uphill climb to get through the national legislature, analysts say, the legislation has a better chance now than ever before. Left-wing and right-wing nationalist parties are promising to try to block the reforms, tapping into strong public sentiment against allowing foreigners to own or develop any of the nation’s rich resources. Opinion polls show that 65 percent of Mexicans prefer to keep foreign developers out of their country.

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U.S. – L.A. Relations Ext.

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U.S./Latin American relations are low now

Anti-Americanism stems from U.S. disengagement. Latin America has open arms for engagement and its key to U.S. leadership credibilitySean Goforth, Affiliated Researcher, Portuguese Institute of International Relations and Security (IPRIS), September 25, 2013, “US – Latin America Relations: In Defense Of Benign Neglect – Analysis,” Eurasia Review, http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/content/ analysis-defense-benign-neglect-us-latin-america-relations, Accessed 9/26/2013Second, several Latin American nations are now more enthusiastic about US involvement in the region. Much of this sentiment owes to a gradual recognition of economic dependence on China, as well as a growing suspicion among technocrats that China’s influence over Latin America corrodes political institutions. Still, the face of Latin American outreach to the United States remains veiled behind inconvenient realities: the Obama administration has cooperated only reluctantly with longstanding US allies, chiefly Mexico and Colombia, and the express “pivot” to Asia seems only destined to snag over lingering US commitments in the Middle East. At the same time, anti -American sentiment persists throughout Latin America. Thus, instead of seeking intensive US re-engagement with Latin America, those seeking stronger US- Latin American ties have pursued their ends by indirect means. These include member ship in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which was a multilateral trade zone set to cohere a speckling of Asian and American Pacific states until the US agreed to seek membership. The pivot, then, could be set to continue, and the Latin Americans could still appear to wave America off from the near shore, but the with the result that by the time President Obama leaves the White House the United States might belong to a trade zone that would realize the aim of hemispheric free trade, minus Brazil. Provided, that is, the TPP enters into force. Beyond that, Peru, Colombia and Chile have taken steps to bolster Mexico’s profile within the region. In 2011 Alan Garcia, Peru’s outgoing president, vowed that Mexico’s stepped up involvement in South America would have “revitalizing effects”.5 And while he explicitly referred to the benefits from increased trade within the region, are ascendant Mexico would inevitably yield another result: Brazil’s influence in the region would wane. That would represent a de facto victory for US diplomacy. A less active US foreign policy to Latin America has been misconstrued as a sign of Yankee decline, when all it really means is risky high level diplomacy is not needed to satisfy the national interest. US- Latin American relations post 9/11 have been more mutually beneficial than at any other time in the past century. If this is neglect, benign or otherwise, let it be.

Obama has systemically undermines relations across Latin AmericaMark Weisbrot, economist and co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, September 19, 2013, “A New Low for US/Latin American Relations,” Counterpunch, http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/09/19/a-new-low-for-uslatin-american-relations/, Accessed 9/21/2013The rift with Brazil comes at a time of worsening U.S. relations with Latin America, and especially South America. It is indicative of a much deeper problem. The administration’s refusal to recognize the results of the Venezuelan elections in April of this year, despite the lack of doubt about the results and in stark opposition to the rest of the region, displayed an aggressiveness that Washington hadn’t shown since it aided the 2002 Venezuelan coup. It brought a sharp rebuke from South America, including Lula and Dilma. Less than two months later U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry

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launched a new “détente,” meeting with his Venezuelan counterpart Elías Jaua in the first such high-level meeting in memory, and implicitly recognizing the election results. But new hopes were quickly dashed when several European governments, clearly acting on behalf of the United States, forced down President Evo Morales’ plane in July. “They´ve definitely gone crazy,” President Cristina Kirchner tweeted, and UNASUR (the Union of South American Nations) issued a strong denunciation. The gross violation of international law and diplomatic norms was another flamboyant display of Washington’s lack of respect for the region. It seems that every month there is another indication of how little the Obama administration cares about improving relations. On July 24 the IMF, at the direction of the U.S. Treasury Department, abandoned its plan to support the Argentine government in its legal battle with “vulture funds.” The IMF had previously committed to filing a brief with the U.S. Supreme Court supporting the Argentine government. This was not out of love for Argentina, but because the lower court’s decision – which would try to prevent Argentina from paying 92 percent of its creditors in order to satisfy the vulture funds – was seen as a threat to future debt restructurings and therefore to the world financial system. But anti-Argentina lobbyists were allowed to prevail, even against the Treasury Department’s legitimate concern for international financial stability.

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U.S./Latin American relations are low now

Multiple scandals have severely hampered U.S.-Latin American relationsRaisa Camargo, Staff Writer, September 9, 2013, “NSA's expanding transgressions fray US relations with Latin America,” Voice of Russia, http://voiceofrussia.com/us/2013_09_09/NSAs-expanding-transgressions-fray-US-relations-with-Latin-America-5498/, Accessed 9/26/2013When allegations surfaced that the U.S. National Security Agency was spying on several leaders in Latin America and its citizens, the suspicion underscored wider questions on the region’s political relationships. In early July information leaked that NSA was spying on citizens’ phone and Internet activity for over a decade in several Latin American countries including Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Argentina, Chile. The documents surfaced by fugitive and former NSA contractor Edward Snowden. The tensions became more pronounced on Sept. 1, when a Brazilian network, TV Globo, alleged that the NSA also monitored the e-mails, text messages and phone calls on Mexican president Enrique Peña Nieto during his election and Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff.

Obama is currently unwilling to use political capital on Latin America policiesMark Weisbrot, economist and co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, September 19, 2013, “A New Low for US/Latin American Relations,” Counterpunch, http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/09/19/a-new-low-for-uslatin-american-relations/, Accessed 9/21/2013There are structural reasons for the Obama administration’s repeated failures to accept the new reality of independent governments in the region. Although President Obama may want better relations, he is willing to spend about $2 in political capital to accomplish this. And that is not enough. When he tried to appoint an ambassador to Venezuela in 2010, for example, Republicans (including the office of then-Senator Richard Lugar) successfully scuttled it.

U.S. diplomatic influence in Latin America faltering nowWOLA, Staff Writers, September 18, 2013, “Time to Listen: New Trends in U.S. Security Assistance to Latin America and the Caribbean,” Washington Office on Latin America, http://www.wola.org/publications/time_to_listen, Accessed 9/26/2013The United States’ diplomatic influence is ebbing in Latin America and the Caribbean. U.S. military influence, though, remains strong. The result is inertia, a policy on autopilot, focused on security threats and capabilities at a time when creativity is badly needed. Moving in a more constructive direction would not be difficult. It could start with simply listening to what Latin American government and civil-society leaders are saying. The clamor for a new relationship is loud, but still falling on deaf ears.

Current U.S. policy toward Latin America is benign neglectSean Goforth, Affiliated Researcher, Portuguese Institute of International Relations and Security (IPRIS), September 25, 2013, “US – Latin America Relations: In Defense Of Benign Neglect – Analysis,” Eurasia Review, http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/content/ analysis-defense-benign-neglect-us-latin-america-relations, Accessed 9/26/2013

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Hugo Chávez lies in tomb at Venezuela’s military academy, Cuba’s economy creaks unsteadily open, and Washington’s loyal friend Mexico stands poised to reassert its influence across Latin America. American students of foreign policy see a window of opportunity, and they are clamoring for stepped up US involvement with its neighbors to the south. The New America Foundation’s Parag Khanna has urged US policymakers to “look south, not east”; New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman and American Interest co-founder William Russell Meade are just two of the notables who have echoed that view. But in doing so, many are also chiding the recent era of “benign neglect” that has characterized US Latin American relations. (Coined by Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan to describe inner city violence in the 1960s, “benign neglect” was appropriated by Latin Americanists after an influential 1973 Foreign Affairs article.) Prominent among them is Foreign Policy magazine CEO David Rothkopf, who warns that because “the D team” of foreign policy has managed President Barack Obama’s Latin America policy the president is “presid[ing] over the descent of US Latin America relations to their worst level in years”.

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U.S./Latin American relations are low now

The U.S. Latin America policy is perceived as indifferentSean Goforth, Affiliated Researcher, Portuguese Institute of International Relations and Security (IPRIS), September 25, 2013, “US – Latin America Relations: In Defense Of Benign Neglect – Analysis,” Eurasia Review, http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/content/ analysis-defense-benign-neglect-us-latin-america-relations, Accessed 9/26/2013In some respect, he’s right. Washington has no envoy shuttling about Latin America, much less an express initiative aimed at achieving region -wide peace. Instead of schemes to incite a group of allies to counterbalance a foe, Wikileaks cables showed persistent US indiffe rence to Latin American affairs. Nearly a decade has passed since the United States expended real effort to create an Alaska to Argentina free trade zone. Beyond regular dealings with Mexico and Colombia, the State Department and other arms of the US government ex pend little energy on Latin America . Yet Washington’s aloofness is hardly a sign of short sightedness. If anything, it shows a historical awareness that whenever the United States has tried to use Latin America as the key to its global grand strategy, it jams the lock. And contrary to what Rothkopf and others would have people believe, disengagement does not amount to US decline. Rather, without so much as a pat from Washington, Latin America’s political landscape is mode rating, with radical regimes increasingly marginalized at the same time that the region transforms into an economic bloc of consumers, which will inevitably benefit US companies and may well serve as the basis for a long overdue regional integration agreement.

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Iran Ext.

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Iran Advantage Extension – Iran is a threat

The U.S. must turn its attention to Iran. They’ll have nukes by mid-2014 and could destabilize the entire Middle East and hold the world hostage to oilInvestors.com, Staff Writer, August 29, 2013, “Obama Should Be Concerned With Iran More Than He Is Syria,” Accessed 9/26/2013, http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/082913-669283-iran-installs-more-nuclear-centrifuges.htmWhile the president is focused on what Syria is doing to its own people, he doesn't seem to be concerned with what Iran is doing that affects the region and beyond. His negligence creates needless risks. The Syrian government's violence against its own people is an atrocity. But it doesn't threaten the U.S. Iran, however, is a different story. Its actions can have an impact on our country. Why doesn't President Obama give it the attention he's giving Syria? It would be nice to not have to think about Iran. But the civilized world cannot forget about Tehran's radicals, who are still dedicated to their nuclear program. The U.N. nuclear watchdog agency reported Wednesday that the country has completed the installation of more than 1,000 advanced centrifuges at its Natanz enrichment plant. The Institute for Science and International Security expects the regime to have "critical capability" by the middle of next year. A nuclear-armed Iran is a dangerous Iran. With atomic weapons, Tehran can bully and dominate the Middle East, a strategic region whether we like it or not. It can also threaten Israel, our closest Mideast ally, which just happens to have the only established, truly representative government in that part of the world. A nuclear-armed Iran is a threat outside the region as well. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rightly observed that it's "1938, and Iran is Germany." There are American citizens, and U.S. soldiers and sailors in areas within Iran's reach. Tehran doesn't have to fire a missile onto U.S. soil to strike middle America — though some think it might have even that frightening capability within two years. Europe, though, is at risk now. The retired director of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, Lt. Gen. Henry Obering, has said he believes that "based on what I've seen ... Iran has the ability to reach most of Europe." An Iran with nuclear weapons could also hold much of the world's oil hostage. Even now, without nuclear arms, it "could, in fact, for a period of time block the Strait of Hormuz," Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey said last year.

Iran is actively plotting terrorist attacks on U.S. assestsJulian E. Barnes and Adam Entous, Staff Writers, September 6, 2013, “Iran Plots Revenge, U.S. Says,” Wall St. Journal, Accessed 9/26/2013, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323893004579057271019210230.htmlThe U.S. has intercepted an order from Iran to militants in Iraq to attack the U.S. Embassy and other American interests in Baghdad in the event of a strike on Syria, officials said, amid an expanding array of reprisal threats across the region. Military officials have been trying to predict the range of possible responses from Syria, Iran and their allies. U.S. officials said they are on alert for Iran's fleet of small, fast boats in the Persian Gulf, where American warships are positioned. U.S. officials also fear Hezbollah could attack the U.S. Embassy in Beirut.

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***NEGATIVE***

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CUBA NEG.

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Lift Embargo Negative Updates

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Democracy DA - Links

Lifting the embargo undermines political reformsLANCE R. KOENIG, Colonel-US Army, November 3, 2010, “Time for a New Cuba Policy,” U.S. Army War College, Accessed 9/13/2013, www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA518130Support the Cuban people, but not the government. This option would completely and unilaterally lift the embargo on trade and travel. Reestablish normal diplomatic relations with Cuba. Engage the Cuban government and use a carrot and stick program to encourage the Cuban leadership to transition from a dictatorship towards a more representative form of government, with more emphasis on the carrot and less on the stick. Included in the carrots are: military to military exchanges and exercises; observer status in the Organization of American States (OAS); and provide assistance transitioning the economic and financial aspects of the economy towards a free market system. Use the economic element of power to demonstrate the superior qualities of a free market economy. Encourage Cuba to allow United States businesses to operate in Cuba without the restrictions of government ownership and government collection of wages for labor. Help Cuba develop an economy that takes advantage of their educated workforce (literacy rate of 99.8%) to move away from low value added products to high value added products with the goal of improving the per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and thus the quality of life for the average Cuban citizen. This option has risk politically, as Cuban voters in Florida have traditionally supported isolating the Cuban government and economic sanctions. There are recent indications that Cuban-American opinions are shifting towards more engagement with Cuba. The recent poll conducted by the Brookings Institution, in collaboration with Florida International University and the Cuba Study Group, found that over 55% of Cuban-Americans oppose continuing the embargo and seems to indicate that this risk has lessened recently. But, with a viable economy that improves the standard of living for the population of Cuba, their government will feel less pressure to change from a dictatorship into a more representative form of government.

Reforms are allowing more flexibility for farmersAssociated Press, Staff Writer, September 10, 2013, “Cuba’s Farm-to-Hotel Reform Takes it One Step Closer to China-Style Liberalism,” Skift Travel IQ, http://skift.com/2013/09/10/cubas-farm-to-hotel-reform-takes-it-one-step-closer-to-china-style-liberalism/, Accessed 9/15/2013Cuban authorities have authorized independent farmers to sell directly to hotels and tourist-oriented restaurants. Until now, private growers have had to go through a state-run distributor to supply those businesses. State-run agribusinesses and farm co-ops are already allowed to contract directly with hotels and restaurants. It’s another step in President Raul Castro’s gradual economic and social changes, which began in 2010.

Cuban reforms have massively expanded freedom of travelAndrea Rodriguez, Staff Writer, September 25, 2013, “Cuba: Nearly 183,000 Travel Abroad Since Reform,” ABC News, http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/cuba-183000-travel-abroad-reform-20370063, Accessed 9/25/2013Nearly 183,000 Cubans have traveled overseas since a migratory reform law took effect earlier this year, island authorities said late Tuesday. A report on state television said 182,799 people have traveled abroad since January, when the reform eliminated the costly, much-loathed exit visa that for decades

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was required of all islanders. The reform also scrapped the practice of requiring Cubans to secure a letter of invitation from someone in the country they wished to visit. "The enactment of the new measures has taken place in a climate of normality, of internal and external acceptance," a television news presenter said against video images of the Havana airport and passport office.

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Caribbean Economy DA Links

Removing the Cuban embargo will undermine the Caribbean economiesDaraine Luton, Staff Writer, 2008, “Jamaica may suffer ... If US lifts Cuban embargo,” Jamaica Gleaner, http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20081102/lead/lead1.html, Accessed 9/19/13 Jamaica’s economy could suffer if the next United States president decides to lift the trade embargo on communist Cuba. "We have to be careful what we wish for," says John Rapley, president of the Caribbean Policy Research Institute (CaPRI), at the University of the West Indies, Mona. Rapley was a guest at The Gleaner Editors' Forum on the US elections last week. With just two days to go before the US votes for a president to replace George W. Bush, there are speculations as to whether the 40-year trade embargo imposed on Cuba will be lifted. Vote to lift embargo On Wednesday, the United Nations General Assembly voted to lift the American trade embargo on Cuba. The vote in the 192-member world body was 185 to three, with two abstentions. The US, Israel and Palau voted no, while Micronesia and the Marshall Islands abstained. The approval of the resolution was the 17th straight year that the General Assembly called for the embargo against Cuba to be repealed "as soon as possible". Cuban Foreign Minister Felipe Pérez Roque later told the Associated Press in an interview that "we expect that the new president will change the policy towards Cuba". Prime Minister Bruce Golding, whose Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) was ideologically opposed to relations with Cuba, has already called for the US to lift the embargo. "My hope is that within a short time, we can see an end to the isolation of Cuba," the prime minister said in May. But during last week's Editors' Forum, Rapley said a softening of US relations with Cuba could hurt Jamaica. "Jamaica is one of the countries that is going to suffer the most in terms of loss, particularly tourism traffic," Rapley said, pointing to a recent assessment done by CaPRI on a liberalised Cuba. Tourism contribution In Jamaica, tourism contributes 10 per cent to GDP - a measure of the country's economic performance - and nine per cent to employment, employing 80,000 persons directly and 180,000 persons indirectly. Jamaica, a leading player in the tourism market regionally, has already recognised the importance of cooperation with Cuba in this department. The two countries signed a memorandum of understanding earlier this year as part of a targeted approach to benefiting from the cash-rich sector. Edmund Bartlett, Jamaica's minister of tourism, has said that "the partnership will be beneficial for both countries, as the possibility of multiple-destination marketing is far-reaching". Increase in stopovers According to Rafael Romeo of the International Monetary Fund, who presented at the CaPRI conference, if the US embargo on Cuba is removed, the communist island would see an increase of between two and 11 per cent in stopover visitor arrivals. "If this forecast is correct, then there will be serious implications for other Caribbean destinations that are heavily dependent on the US markets. They may not only lose market share, but also valuable tourist dollars, both in terms of foreign direct investments and visitor spending," CaPRI concluded. "Further, these countries will have to increase their marketing budget to break down value chains and attract customers. Countries most likely to be affected would be The Bahamas, The Cayman Islands, The Turks and Caicos Islands and Jamaica," CaPRI added. Last week, Rapley concluded that the lifting of the embargo on Cuba "sounds great, but I think we might regret that we spend this time talking about it".

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Gradualism CP Solvency

The diverse restriction of the embargo make it perfect for progressive lifting. The short-run benefits would nullify the overall embargoRoger R. Betancourt, Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Maryland, July 2013, “SHOULD THE US LIFT THE CUBAN EMBARGO? YES; IT ALREADY HAS; AND IT DEPENDS!,” http://econweb.umd.edu/~betancourt/development/ LiftingtheEmbargopaper.ASCEversion.July.pdf, Accessed 9/15/2013Since the embargo has three different economic aspects with their own restrictions, one can partition the initial part of the response to the question in terms of which set of restrictions are lifted: the ones on transactions of goods and services, the ones on the flows of persons and the ones on capital flows. With respect to transactions of goods and services, the lifting of the embargo would provide small benefits to both governments in the short-run. After so many years, the costs of the “embargo” to Cuba are relatively low because it has had ample time and choice in switching to the next best available alternative. Presumably the latter would be the one where the costs from diverting trade would be lowest. In principle, they would not be very substantial because by now no other country participates in the embargo. Similar considerations apply to the short-run costs experienced by the United States as a result of these restrictions on trade flows.

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A2: Plan Causes Reform

Lingering ideology is a huge barrier to successful reformsEmilio Morales, Cuban economist, ex-head of strategic planning for marketing in the CIMEX corporation, September 2, 2013, “Reforms in Cuba: The Last Utopia?,” http://www.havanatimes.org/?p=98499&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ campaign=Feed%3A+havanatimes%2Fapge+(Havana+Times+Posts), Accessed 9/5/2013The ideology that underlies the process remains intact; the same ideology that has held the reins of the country for over half a century. For this reason a change in strategic thinking and philosophy regarding how to manage the country’s economy is very difficult. There is no perception of new strategic thinking about transitioning from the centralized economic system towards an open and unrestricted economic system.

Reforms are doomed without rethinking the entire philosophy of governmentEmilio Morales, Staff Writer, (translated by Joseph L. Scarpaci), August 31, 2013, “Cuban reforms: the ultimate utopia?,” The Havana Consulting Group, http://thehavanaconsultinggroups.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=348%3Acuban-reforms-the-ultimate-utopia&catid=47%3Aeconomy&lang=en, Accessed 9/15/2013With the ideology of the Cuban government still intact, reforms will only move forward slowly, if at all. This is been the situation for more than half a century, which is why it will be very difficult that a change in strategic thinking and philosophy will be able to manage the country’s economy. Absent is any critical thinking about moving the country away from a centralized system to a more open economy without restrictions. For instance, one of the main obstacles is the privatization of public goods that is prohibited by the Constitution and, among other reasons, is one of the brakes that slows down foreign capital to the island, and impedes the development of a strong national private sector.

Lack of structural reform prevents Castro reforms from succeedingEmilio Morales, Cuban economist, ex-head of strategic planning for marketing in the CIMEX corporation, September 2, 2013, “Reforms in Cuba: The Last Utopia?,” http://www.havanatimes.org/?p=98499&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ campaign=Feed%3A+havanatimes%2Fapge+(Havana+Times+Posts), Accessed 9/5/2013Given this – why aren’t the reforms advancing at the rate the government needs? The chief obstacle facing the reform process is that the structural changes proclaimed by Raul Castro haven’t happened. Instead, the reforms are based on the old scheme of economic centralization, backed by regulations and a shallow layer of laws. We are witnessing more an exercise in the elimination of prohibitions and restitution of rights than of structural changes. For example: the migratory law, the liberation of home and auto sales, the authorization of self-employment in 183 modalities and most recently the contracting of Cuban sports figures in foreign professional clubs have all overturned prohibitions established half a century ago, but haven’t generated structural changes in the economy.

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A2: Plan Causes Reform

There is huge resistance to privatization reforms and the Constitution preventsEmilio Morales, Cuban economist, ex-head of strategic planning for marketing in the CIMEX corporation, September 2, 2013, “Reforms in Cuba: The Last Utopia?,” http://www.havanatimes.org/?p=98499&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ campaign=Feed%3A+havanatimes%2Fapge+(Havana+Times+Posts), Accessed 9/5/2013One of the principal barriers is that the privatization of the public sector is prohibited by the Constitution, which puts the brakes on attracting foreign capital and developing a national private sector. The productive forces find themselves prisoners of the rigidity and the limitations of the existing laws, and for this reason individual initiative and ingenuity are not encouraged. Further, the success of the self-employed worker is reflected in the official press as the birth of the nouveau riche which reflects distrust on the part of the government and fears that the development of a private sector might prove the motor force of a change in the social system.It’s obvious that a strong resistance to change persists despite the fact that the highest circle of government understands that there is no other alternative.

The public is resisting reforms nowEmilio Morales, Staff Writer, (translated by Joseph L. Scarpaci), August 31, 2013, “Cuban reforms: the ultimate utopia?,” The Havana Consulting Group, http://thehavanaconsultinggroups.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=348%3Acuban-reforms-the-ultimate-utopia&catid=47%3Aeconomy&lang=en, Accessed 9/15/2013Entrepreneurship and individual initiative are straightjacketed, and rigid laws trap the productive elements of the economy. That is why the national media characterizes the limited successes of self-employed workers as those achieved by the nouveau riche, which strikes distrust and fear if the private sector becomes an engine of social change. Put another way, there is strong resistance to change despite the fact that the top of the government understands that there really is no other option available.

Cuban economic reforms will continually fail without major structural changesEmilio Morales, Staff Writer, (translated by Joseph L. Scarpaci), August 31, 2013, “Cuban reforms: the ultimate utopia?,” The Havana Consulting Group, http://thehavanaconsultinggroups.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=348%3Acuban-reforms-the-ultimate-utopia&catid=47%3Aeconomy&lang=en, Accessed 9/15/2013The reforms are based on obsolete structures that have not been dismantled and serve only to preserve socialism. Therefore, what becomes of the so-called reforms is really a contradiction. In this context, the economic situation of the island is chaotic, and its errors and failures have been piling up for more than a half century. They are a heavy burden that the crippled government must disentangle if the reforms are to work.

The decline in aid from Venezuela stifles economic reformEmilio Morales, Staff Writer, (translated by Joseph L. Scarpaci), August 31, 2013, “Cuban reforms: the ultimate utopia?,” The Havana Consulting Group, http://thehavanaconsultinggroups.com/index.php?

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option=com_content&view=article&id=348%3Acuban-reforms-the-ultimate-utopia&catid=47%3Aeconomy&lang=en, Accessed 9/15/2013Venezuela's estimated $6 billion of annual support constitutes the other leg supporting the Cuban economy. However, the present crisis that this south American economy is experiencing, coupled with the negative effect that the death of Chavez has had in continuing chavismo, means that this level of aid will be difficult to sustain. The numbers speak for themselves and it is difficult for the Cuban government to ignore them. They shape how the Cuban government shapes their reforms and how they might save the Cuban economy in light of a possible melt down in Venezuela.

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A2: Plan Causes Reform

Widespread structural governmental reforms are essential to progressive reformsEmilio Morales, Staff Writer, (translated by Joseph L. Scarpaci), August 31, 2013, “Cuban reforms: the ultimate utopia?,” The Havana Consulting Group, http://thehavanaconsultinggroups.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=348%3Acuban-reforms-the-ultimate-utopia&catid=47%3Aeconomy&lang=en, Accessed 9/15/2013So what needs to be done to make these reforms work? A first element would be to adapt to the present economic situation of the country, which means bringing into play strategic thought that marks a departure from the old schemes of the past and focuses more on how to run the economy. One would have to eliminate the taboos that are standing in the way all new reforms being carried out. The government and party must internalize these this thinking. In this new paradigm, therefore, the level of freedom required for the productive elements of the economy have to be completely independent of government action; they must be self administered and encourage free association and cooperation. It is essential to do away with laws that stand in the way of these reforms. Now is the time to create new laws that encourage entrepreneurship and private initiative.

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Ethanol Negative Updates

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Renewables Increasing Now

Cuba just added another solar park to reduce fossil fuel dependenceThe Havana Times, (Staff Writer), August 16, 2013, “Cuba Invests in Solar, While Still Betting on Oil,” Accessed 9/5/2013, http://www.havanatimes.org/?p=98026Cuba launched its second photovoltaic solar power park to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels, with the recent failures in oil exploration, reported dpa news. The photovoltaic park has more than 5,000 solar panels and Cuban specialists believe they have the ability to supply the daily electricity consumption of about 750 homes. The new power plant is in addition to another opened in April this year, with about 14,000 solar panels. They are part of a network of seven solar farms will be opened gradually in the coming months in different parts of the country.

Cuba prioritizes renewables development nowThe Havana Times, (Staff Writer), August 16, 2013, “Cuba Invests in Solar, While Still Betting on Oil,” Accessed 9/5/2013, http://www.havanatimes.org/?p=98026The primary energy source used in Cuba is oil, but the island is able to produce only half the crude it needs daily, while the rest is purchased from Venezuela through payment facilities and soft loans. Within the new economic policies of the government of Raul Castro an important goal is to reduce imports, so it is prioritizing renewable energy production in a country with favorable natural conditions.

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U.S. Action Not Enough

Changing U.S. policies are not enough to jumpstart Cuba’s sugarcane ethanol industryJonathan Specht, J.D. Washington University Saint Louis, 2013, “Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States,” http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf, Environmental Law & Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, Accessed 9/19/2013The ideal domestic policy scenario for the creation of a robust Cuban sugarcane ethanol industry would be a situation in which: the U.S. trade embargo on Cuba is ended; U.S. tariff barriers are removed (in the case of sugar) or not revived (in the case of ethanol); and the RFS requiring that a certain percentage of U.S. fuel come from ethanol remain in place. Of course, changes in United States policy alone, even those that ensure a steady source of demand for Cuban sugarcane-based ethanol, would not be enough to create an ethanol industry from scratch. Cuba will need to foster the industry as a key goal of the post-Castro era and shape its domestic policies to encourage the growth of the industry.

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Ethanol Industry Will Not Solve

Cuba won’t invest in sugarcane ethanol without a massive surge in demandJonathan Specht, J.D. Washington University Saint Louis, 2013, “Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States,” http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf, Environmental Law & Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, Accessed 9/19/2013Given that the Cuban sugar industry lived and died by its ties with the Soviet Union for several decades of the Twentieth Century, Cuba will likely be quite wary of investing too much in the creation of a sugarcane ethanol industry that it perceives as being largely a creature of U.S. energy and agricultural policy. Therefore, the creation of a significant sugarcane ethanol industry in Cuba will require a large increase in domestic demand for ethanol. One way that Cuba could encourage domestic demand for ethanol would be to follow the Brazilian model of encouraging the purchase of Flex Fuel vehicles, which can run on any blend of fuel between 100% gasoline and 100% ethanol. Given the relative poverty of Cuba’s population, as indicated by the number of vehicles in the country that are several decades old, expecting new vehicles to provide a source of demand for ethanol may be an extremely unrealistic prospect. On the other hand, potential pent-up demand for new automobiles, alongside sufficient and well-directed government incentives, could accelerate demand for Flex Fuel vehicles relative to other countries.

Cuba doesn’t have enough skilled economic laborers to handle a growing sugarcane ethanol industryJonathan Specht, J.D. Washington University Saint Louis, 2013, “Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States,” http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf, Environmental Law & Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, Accessed 9/19/2013Like all new capitalist industries to emerge in the post-Castro era, whatever ethanol industry arises will have to deal with the painful transition from socialism to capitalism. The Cuban sugarcane ethanol industry will face similar challenges to other private sector industries that arise in the post-Fidel era. One of these challenges will be simply a lack of people with skills necessary for any industry. According to Edward Gonzalez and Kevin McCarthy of the RAND Corporation, “[A]s a result of 40-plus years of communism, the labor force lacks the kinds of trained managers, accountants, auditors, bankers, insurers, etc., that a robust market economy requires.” While these challenges will not be unique to Cuba’s ethanol industry, they will put the country at a competitive disadvantage vis-à-vis existing ethanol exporters such as Brazil. This will be especially true if there is a significant lag time between the expiration of the ethanol tariff barriers at the end of 2011 and the eventual removal of the United States trade embargo against Cuba.

Legal reforms mean the ethanol industry will be slow to developJonathan Specht, J.D. Washington University Saint Louis, 2013, “Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States,” http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf, Environmental Law & Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, Accessed 9/19/2013

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Additionally, because Cuba’s ethanol industry is currently almost nonexistent, it will need a great deal of foreign expertise and investment to get started. However, such investments are unlikely to be made unless Cuba makes fundamental changes in its business climate. In the words of Gonzalez and McCarthy, “[C]apital investment, which Cuba’s economy desperately needs and which is most likely to be supplied by foreign investors, will be difficult to attract without enforceable contracts, access to neutral adjudication of disputes, and a degree of predictability that has heretofore been lacking.” Any post-Castro government will likely begin to make such changes to increase the appeal of the island nation to foreign investment. However, implementing these changes will take time and trial and error, which will slow the creation of a sugarcane-based ethanol industry.

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Ethanol Industry Will Not Solve

Increasing ethanol from Cuba trades off with Brazil. This reduces energy costs and environmental damagesJonathan Specht, J.D. Washington University Saint Louis, 2013, “Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States,” http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf, Environmental Law & Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, Accessed 9/19/2013Cuban sugarcane-based ethanol would have the environmental benefits of Brazilian sugarcane-based ethanol without its most obvious negative factor, damaging habitat in the Cerrado. The environmental effects of biofuels depend on a number of factors. Whether or not a given type of biofuel is environmentally beneficial “depends on what the fuel is, how and where the biomass was produced, what else the land could have been used for, how the fuel was processed and how it is used.” Taken together, these factors point to sugarcane-based ethanol grown in Cuba as one of the most environmentally friendly biofuels possible. The environmental benefits of using sugarcane to produce ethanol are numerous. First, it is much more energy efficient to derive ethanol from sugarcane than corn. Making ethanol from corn only creates approximately 1.3 times the amount of energy used to produce it, but making ethanol from sugarcane creates approximately eight times the amount of energy used to produce it. Second, unlike much of the corn presently grown in Great Plains states, sugarcane grown in Latin America does not need to be irrigated. Third, sugarcane requires relatively small amounts of chemical fertilizers, herbicides, and pesticides. Fourth, whereas most U.S. ethanol refineries are powered by coal or natural gas, sugarcane ethanol refineries can be powered by bagasse, a natural product left over from the sugar refining process. In fact, refineries powered with bagasse can even produce more electricity than they need and sell power back to the electric grid. Fifth, although corn can only be planted and harvested once a year, in tropical climates sugarcane can be cut from the same stalks multiple times per year. Each of these factors in favor of sugarcane ethanol is true of ethanol from Brazil as well as of any potential ethanol from Cuba. However, there are additional environmental factors that clinch Cuban sugarcane-based ethanol as one of the most environmentally friendly fuel sources available to the United States under current technology. First, because Cuba is closer to the United States, transporting ethanol from Cuba to the United States would require less energy than transporting ethanol from Brazil to the United States (especially if it is used in Florida, an option further explored in the section on economic effects).

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Terrorist List Negative Updates

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Cuba supports terrorism

FARC support and North Korea arms shipment proves Cuba is tied to terrorismIleana Ros-Lehtinenn, U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL), Chair of the Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa, August 20, 2013, http://ros-lehtinen.house.gov/press-release/cuba-state-sponsor-terrorism-hosting-peace-talks-farc-foreign-terrorist-organization, Accessed 9/16/2013“The choice of Cuba as the place to hold peace talks is especially outrageous given that only last month a North Korea-bound ship carrying illegal arms was caught leaving from Cuba, reaffirming that the Castro regime is complicit in criminal activities that endanger the security of our Hemisphere. Couple that with the fact that the U.S. recently indicted FARC-related criminals in Africa earlier this year on cocaine and weapons-trafficking charges, and this is a recipe for disaster.

Cuba is a safe haven for terroristsIleana Ros-Lehtinenn, U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL), Chair of the Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa, August 20, 2013, http://ros-lehtinen.house.gov/press-release/cuba-state-sponsor-terrorism-hosting-peace-talks-farc-foreign-terrorist-organization, Accessed 9/16/2013“This is just another political charade dreamed up by the Castro regime. The tyrannical regime in Cuba has threatened our national security and ruled with an iron fist for decades now against the 11 million people oppressed on the island nation. For decades, the Castro brothers have actively supported and provided a safe haven to FARC members in their violent campaign to destabilize Colombia and the entire region through murders, kidnappings, narco-trafficking, and other nefarious activities.

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GITMO Negative Updates

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Terrorism DA Links

A former GITMO detainee just showed up in SyriaCarl Rosenberg, Staff Writer, September 17, 2013, “Ex-Guantanamo detainee dies fighting Assad in Syria,” The Miami Herald, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/09/17/202450/ex-guantanamo-detainee-dies-fighting.html#.UjyNKMYpBni, Accessed 9/18/2013An Islamic opposition group in Syria has posted a video of the funeral of a former Guantánamo prisoner, the first known report that one of the 500 or so captives released during the Bush administration joined the Syrian insurgency to topple Bashar Assad. The Syrian Islamic Movement posted the video Monday on YouTube. It shows the body of a fallen fighter in his 30s or 40s and a rebel leader, Sheik Abu Ahmad al Muhajir, eulogizing the man as Mohammed al Alami, a Northwest African veteran of the jihad in Afghanistan “who went through hardship for the sake of God in the prison of the Americans in Guantánamo for five years.”

A new report confirms that close GITMO would increase terrorismTribune-Review, Staff Writer, September 14, 2013, “Obama's Gitmo policy: Aiding & abetting the enemy,” http://triblive.com/opinion/editorials/4680710-74/gitmo-inmates-obama#axzz2fSNjAna3, Accessed 9/18/2013The latest report to Congress on released Guantanamo Bay inmates shows more returning to terrorism, confirming yet again that the Obama administration's desire to close the prison and release its inmates is no way to fight terrorism. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence report confirms that among 603 released Gitmo detainees, 100 — up from 97 as of January — returned to terrorism, including 56 now at large. Another 74 ex-inmates, including 47 now free, are suspected of returning to terrorism. Released with no guarantees regarding their whereabouts, contacts or activities, former Gitmo inmates have made America and the world less safe. The Washington Free Beacon reports that ex-inmates formed Yemen-based al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula — which has tried to bomb U.S. airliners and prompted last month's closure of 19 U.S. embassies — and one leads al-Qaida affiliate Ansar al-Sharia, which trains jihadists in Libya to join al-Qaida-backed forces in Syria.

Closing Gitmo guarantees at least 16% engage in terrorismJamie Crawford, Staff Writer, September 10, 2013, “Some former Guantanamo Bay detainees still returning to battle, report says,” CNN Security Challenge, http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2013/09/10/some-former-guantanamo-bay-detainees-still-returning-to-battle-report-says/, Accessed 9/19/2013Some former inmates at the United States prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, are still returning to the battlefield, a report from the U.S. intelligence community says. Of the 603 detainees who have been transferred from the facility since it opened, 100 of them, or 16.6%, have re-engaged in terrorist activity, says an unclassified summary from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence released last week. Three detainees of 71 who were released since January 2009 have gone back to battle, and four others who were transferred from the facility since then are suspected of returning to their old ways. " Based on trends identified during the past ten years , we assess that if additional detainees are transferred without conditions from GITMO, some will reengage in terrorist or insurgent activities," the report said. "Transfers to countries with ongoing conflicts and internal stability as well as active

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recruitment by insurgent and terrorist organizations pose a particular problem." The report also said that some former detainees "routinely" communicate with one another, or with families of former detainees and previous associates who are members of terrorist organizations. Those communications range from "mundane" reflections of shared experiences to "nefarious" discussions about planning terrorist operations, the report said.

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Terrorism DA Links

One in six released GITMO detainees return to anti-American terrorismSophie Jane Evans, Staff Writer, September 11, 2013, “At least 100 of the 603 freed Guantanamo Bay prisoners have returned to terrorism, U.S. intelligence report reveals,” Daily Mail, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2417226/Guantanamo-Bay-One-ex-Gitmo-inmates-return-terrorism.html, Accessed 9/18/2013A shocking one in six inmates released from Guantanamo Bay prison have returned to terrorism, according to a U.S. intelligence report made public last week. Of the 603 prisoners set free from the military facility, 100 are confirmed to have rejoined jihad against the West. These include 17 ex-detainees that are dead, 27 that are in custody and 56 that are still free. A further 74 former inmates at the notorious prison in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, are suspected of returning to terrorism, including two that are dead, 25 that are in custody and 47 that are free. Alarmingly, three of the ex-Gitmo inmates confirmed as re-engaging in terrorism, and two suspected of terrorist activity, were released into the community in the past eight months, according to the report by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI).

Lack of post-release security means GITMO detainees will just return to terrorismSophie Jane Evans, Staff Writer, September 11, 2013, “At least 100 of the 603 freed Guantanamo Bay prisoners have returned to terrorism, U.S. intelligence report reveals,” Daily Mail, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2417226/Guantanamo-Bay-One-ex-Gitmo-inmates-return-terrorism.html, Accessed 9/18/2013Thomas Joscelyn, a terrorism analyst with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News that releasing prisoners from the detention facility increases the danger they will return to jihad. 'Once a detainee is transferred from Guantanamo to his home country, or a third country, there is no guarantee that appropriate security measures will be put in place,' he said. 'Thus, even detainees who are known to be very dangerous have rejoined the fight after leaving Guantanamo.' The ODNI report, which is released every six months, also warned against the unconditional release of Guantanamo inmates, stating there was a risk they would 'reengage in terrorist or insurgent activities'.

Shutting down GITMO appeases terroristsMichelle Malkin, Staff Writer, September 11, 2013, “America’s Unfinished Business,” National Review, Accessed 9/18/2013, http://www.nationalreview.com/article/358160/americas-unfinished-business-michelle-malkinThe terror-coddling Obama White House squandered precious years trying to shut down Gitmo to appease the peaceniks, transnationalists, and Muslim grievance-mongers. President Obama and Attorney General Eric Holder arrogantly attempted to shove civilian trials of terrorists — which would have been held a stone’s throw from Ground Zero — down New Yorkers’ throats. Ever since, Team Obama has dragged its feet on military tribunals for the al-Qaeda crew. If we’re lucky — that’s a big if — the death-penalty war-crimes trials for KSM and his co-conspirators may begin in the fall of 2014. Maybe. Thanks to cunning delays, made-for-media theatrics, and stomach-turning whining by the Gitmo detainees, the journey to hold the 9/11 plotters accountable has become a vulgar joke.

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(XO) Executive Order CP solvency

Obama doesn’t need Congress to close GITMO, just a Defense Secretary waiverThomas Wilner, Fmr. counsel of record for Guantánamo detainees, September 4, 2013, “Guantánamo: The President Could Close It Tomorrow If He Really Wants to,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/thomas-wilner/guantanamo-the-president-_b_3842879.html, Accessed 9/18/2013There is a myth circulating that, because the president says he wants to close Guantánamo, he would if he could, but that he can't because Congress has stopped him. That is not so. The president has the authority right now in existing legislation to achieve that result by transferring detainees out of Guantánamo. Congress did amend the National Defense Authorization Act three years ago to prohibit funding for the transfer of any Guantánamo detainee to the U.S. It also prohibited funding for transfers to other countries, unless the Defense Secretary personally certified that the transferred detainee would never engage in terrorist activity. Because no one can give such a personal assurance, that provision effectively blocked transfers. But Congress then amended the law to allow the Secretary to waive that requirement and to transfer detainees to other countries if he finds (1) that the receiving country will take steps to "substantially mitigate" the risk that the detainee will engage in terrorist activity, and (2) that the transfer is in U.S. national security interests.

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Gradualism CP Extension

It’s better to close Guantanamo gradually in stagesAdam Isacson, Et al., September 2013, Latin America Working Group at the Center for International Policy, September 2013, with Lisa Haugaard, Abigail Poe, Sarah Kinosian, and George Withers, “Time to Listen: Trends in U.S. Security Assistance to Latin America and the Caribbean,” http://www.wola.org/sites/default/files/downloadable/Regional%20Security/Time%20to%20Listen/Time%20to%20Listen.pdf, Accessed 9/26/2013Close the Guantanamo prison and either prosecute the detainees in civilian courts or release them. While Guantánamo has not been a focus of this report, its existence continues to undermine U.S. messaging on human rights to the region, especially the region’s security forces. While this is a “heavy lift” in the U.S. domestic political climate, there is much that can be done in the interim. For a start, the United States Southern Command should move the detainees who have been cleared for release out of the detention facilities and into humane living quarters, granting them privacy, freedom of movement, communication and association.

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Indefinite Detention Turn

Calls for closing GITMO mask other prisons of indefinite detention, like BagramSamira Shackle, Staff Writer, September 5, 2013, “The other Guantanamo,” New Statesman, Accessed 9/19/2013, http://www.newstatesman.com/middle-east/2013/09/other-guantanamoWhen President Barack Obama came to power in 2008, he pledged to close Guantanamo, the notorious island prison where terrorism suspects are held indefinitely without charge. Five years after he said that “this war, like all wars, must end”, the prison remains open, the prisoners now in their eighth month of a hunger strike. Guantanamo is not the only legacy of the Bush era that is proving problematic, as Obama prepares to draw a line under his predecessor’s wars. Bagram prison in Afghanistan is perhaps most famous for a string of prisoner abuse and torture scandals during the long US war. Though less headline-worthy in recent years, it remains there, and, as the US pull-out in 2014 draws ever closer, it is posing such a problem that it has been nicknamed the “second Guantanamo”.

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Soft Power Adv. Answers

America’s gun violence pathology degrades our soft power globallyJonathan Freedland, Staff Writer, September 17, 2013, “Washington DC shootings: America's gun disease diminishes its soft power,” The Guardian, http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/sep/17/washington-dc-shootings-america-gun-disease, Accessed 9/18/2013The foreign policy experts who gather in the think tanks and congressional offices not far from the navy yard often define national security to encompass anything that touches on America's standing in the world. That ranges from its ability to project military force across the globe to its attractiveness, its "soft power". For decades, this latter quality has been seen as one of the US's primary assets, central to its ability to lead and persuade other nations. But America's gun disease diminishes its soft power. It makes the country seem less like a model and more like a basket case, afflicted by a pathology other nations strive to avoid. When similar gun massacres have struck elsewhere – including in Britain – lawmakers have acted swiftly to tighten controls, watching as the gun crime statistics then fell. In the decade after the rules were toughened in Australia in 1996, for example, firearm-related homicides fell by 59%, while suicides involving guns fell by 65%.

Wiretapping undermines soft powerJim Arkedis, Senior Fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute and was a DOD counter-terrorism analyst, June 19, 2013, “PRISM Is Bad for American Soft Power”, The Atlantic, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/06/prism-is-bad-for-american-soft-power/277015/, Accessed 9/19/2013The lack of public debate, shifting attitudes towards civil liberties, insufficient disclosure, and a decreasing terrorist threat demands that collecting Americans' phone and Internet records must meet the absolute highest bar of public consent. It's a test the Obama administration is failing. This brings us back to Harry Truman and Jim Crow. Even though PRISM is technically legal, the lack of recent public debate and support for aggressive domestic collection is hurting America's soft power. The evidence is rolling in. The China Daily, an English-language mouthpiece for the Communist Party, is having a field day, pointing out America's hypocrisy as the Soviet Union did with Jim Crow. Chinese dissident artist Ai Wei Wei made the link explicitly, saying "In the Soviet Union before, in China today, and even in the U.S., officials always think what they do is necessary... but the lesson that people should learn from history is the need to limit state power." Even America's allies are uneasy, at best. German Chancellor Angela Merkel grew up in the East German police state and expressed diplomatic "surprise" at the NSA's activities. She vowed to raise the issue with Obama at this week's G8 meetings. The Italian data protection commissioner said the program would "not be legal" in his country. British Foreign Minister William Hague came under fire in Parliament for his government's participation. If Americans supported these programs, our adversaries and allies would have no argument. As it is, the next time the United States asks others for help in tracking terrorists, it's more likely than not that they will question Washington's motives.

Soft power is a false concept. It’s only a byproduct of wealth and successGilbert Doctorow, Research Fellow of the American University in Moscow, May 20, 2013, “Soft power is largely an American PR gimmick,” http://english.ruvr.ru/2013_05_20/Soft-power-is-largely-an-American-PR-gimmick/, Accessed 9/19/2013

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There is not much in all of this for the Kremlin to use in furtherance of its foreign policy objectives. But then the fact that Hilary Clinton chose Nye as the State Department’s house philosopher during her tenure did not change the substance of Obama’s foreign policy even if it may have influenced the sound bites. And it could not be otherwise, because soft power is largely a public relations gimmick.¶ Since Nye is an idealist rather than a realist, he systematically fails to understand that soft power is above all a by-product of wealth and success. America’s undisputed power of attraction to peoples around the world (when it is not invading hapless countries) has more to do with its per capita GDP than with any other factor. This explains the passion of ambitious people everywhere to send their children to American colleges, whatever their ratings. It explains the popularity of Hollywood and pop culture and much more. There is nothing wrong with this; it is all understandable in human terms. But it has relatively little to do with vibrant civil society or any beacon of human rights radiating from Washington, D.C. In this respect, the best thing that Russia or China can do to further their soft power is to get richer quick.

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Human Rights Adv. Answers

Universal human rights are built on a foundation of eurocentrismAmy Gutmann, Ph.D., President and the Christopher H. Browne Distinguished Professor of Political Science, Communications, and Philosophy at the University of Pennsylvania, 2001, Human Rights as Politics and Idolatry, p. xvi-xviiWhat is at stake in determining the foundations of human rights is often the very legitimacy of human rights talk in the international arena. If human rights necessarily rest on a moral or metaphysical foundation that is not in any meaningful sense universal or publicly defensible in the interna tional arena, if human rights are based on exclusively Eurocentric ideas, as many critics have (quite persistently) claimed, these Eurocentric ideas are biased against non-Western countries and cultures, then the political legitimacy of human rights talk, human rights covenants, and human rights enforcement is called into question.

Even if universal human rights discourse brings short-term benefits, it inevitably gives way to eurocentric dominationMakau Mutua, Professor of Law & Director at the Human Rights Center, State Univ. of NY at Buffalo School of Law, 2002, “The Complexity of Universalism in Human Rights,” 10th Annual Conference on "The Individual vs. the State," Central European University, Budapest, http://www.ceu.hu/legal/ind_vs_state/Mutua_paper_2002.htm, Accessed 9/17/2013In this respect, human rights must break from the historical continuum expressed in the grand narrative of human rights that keeps intact the hierarchical relationships between European and non-European populations. Nathaniel Berman is right in his prognosis of what has to be done: The contradictions between commitments to sovereign equality, stunning political and economic imbalances, and paternalistic humanitarianism cannot be definitively resolved logically, doctrinally, or institutionally; rather, they must be confronted in ongoing struggle in all legal, political, economic, and cultural arenas. Projections of a unitary international community, even in the guise of the inclusive U.N., or a unified civilizational consensus, even in the guise of human rights discourse, may be provisionally useful and important but cannot indefinitely defer the need to confront these contradictions.

Western human rights claims are hegemonic and unethicalSiba N'Zatioula Grovogui, PhD, professor of international relations theory and international law at The Johns Hopkins University, Winter, 2011, “To the Orphaned, Dispossessed, and Illegitimate Children: Human Rights Beyond Republican and Liberal Traditions,” Indiana Journal of Global Legal Studies, 18 Ind. J. Global Leg. Stud. 41, http://www.repository.law.indiana.edu/ijgls/vol18/iss1/3/, Accessed 9/17/2013Notwithstanding the important role liberal states and Western professionals and academics played in the promotion of historic institutions of human rights, their proposed categories have long competed with other compelling, although non-hegemonic, conceptions of human rights. In this sense, Western categories are neither historically unique nor morally indispensable to an ethical life. Every imaginable duty and obligation in the area of human rights may be validated and defended by most of the world's

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moral systems, even if they have different inflection and, therefore, legal, political, and moral implications than the Western conception.

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Oil Drilling Updates

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Reducing Dependence on oil now

Cuba is working to reduce oil dependence with new drillingCuba News (staff writer), August 22, 2013, “Oil-dependent Cuba pursues renewable energy sources,” Accessed 9/5/2013, http://www.cubanews.com/sections/oil-dependent-cuba-pursues-renewable-energy-sourcesDependence on oil is, in many ways, like a curse, and Cuba is no exception to the rule. For years, Cuba’s reliance on Soviet petroleum and more recently on Venezuelan oil led to a recurrent pattern of negligible efforts to find its own hydrocarbons, along with Moscow’s persistent refusal to engage in any serious drilling efforts. The disaster of more than 800 biogas plants left to rot in Camagüey in the 1980s, and the many blunders associated with the experimental wind farms on the island of Turiguanó in 1999 are just a few examples. The recent political tensions in Venezuela have underscored the need for Cuba to define new priorities and not just in trying to develop its own onshore and offshore oil and gas. Authorities are putting increasing emphasis on alternative and renewable energy sources that, as energy expert Jorge Piñón has pointed out, would help Cuba cut its dependence on foreign oil imports. It wasn’t by chance that in June, Havana hosted the XII World Conference on Eolic (Wind) Energy and Renewable Energies an event attended by experts from Europe, China, Latin America and elsewhere.

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Democracy DA Updates

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Uniqueness

Private enterprise is flourishing due to Cuban reformsFernando Ravsberg, Staff Writer, September 12, 2013, “Trades and Businesses of Old Make a Comeback in Cuba,” Havana Times, http://www.havanatimes.org/?p=98740, Accessed 9/15/2013Private detectives, pet-care centers, pawnbrokers, tourist buses, opticians, travel agents, psychologists on call – these are some of the businesses, started by Cuba’s self-employed, which were practically unknown on the island until recently and have now become as profitable as the more familiar private restaurants or lodgings. Thanks to private initiative, which has been gaining ground in the country with the reforms the government has been implementing since 2008, today Cubans can take out a loan to start a business, go on vacation on a private bus, leave their dogs in expert hands, have their partners followed and pay for a shrink if the results of this investigation proves traumatic for them.

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Urban Agriculture DA Updates

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Urban Agriculture DA - Links

Increasing economic development in Cuba trades off with urban farmingMarcella Pedersen, NFU Region 6 Women’s Advisory Committee, September 5, 2013, “Trip to Cuba – sustainable organic farming,” Battleford’s News-Optimist, http://www.newsoptimist.ca/article/20130905/BATTLEFORD0107/309059988/-1/BATTLEFORD/trip-to-cuba-sustainable-organic-farming, Accessed 9/5/2013“Future challenges are predictably arising from market forces, which stand to undermine this system: urban farm space will compete for land for development of tourism (which brings in more foreign currency). Simultaneously, the development addresses unemployment, food security, environment, urban migration, community, recycling, and a cleaner environment and quality of life so absent from many developing world urban centers. It also shows how Cuba managed to turn a crisis into an asset.” Cuban agriculture “works with nature.” In Cuba, one calorie of energy produces 12 calories of food. Canada uses 12 calories of energy to produce one calorie of food.

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Urban Agriculture DA - Uniqueness

Cuba leads the way for sustainable development globallySanta Barbara Independent, (Staff Writer), August 6, 2013, "Learning from the Most Sustainable Place on Earth", with Cuban Permaculturist Roberto Perez,” http://www.independent.com/events/2013/aug/25/30828/, Accessed 9/18/2013The Living Planet Report from the World Wildlife Fund in 2007 identified Cuba as the only sustainable country in the world. The study involved two key parameters for measuring sustainable development, a commitment to "improving the quality of human life while living within the carrying capacity of supporting ecosystems". Cuba was the ONLY country on earth to achieve satisfactory benchmarks in both criteria for sustainable development. Formerly importing most of its food, Cuba's agriculture is now 95% organic, with the city of Havana producing over 60% of its own fruits and vegetables within the city's urban spaces. At the same time, Cuba has been engaging in a massive reforestation campaign, and has invested massively in alternative energy production, with a focus on solar and biofuels.

Cuba is a global leader of sustainable urban farmingMarcella Pedersen, NFU Region 6 Women’s Advisory Committee, September 5, 2013, “Trip to Cuba – sustainable organic farming,” Battleford’s News-Optimist, http://www.newsoptimist.ca/article/20130905/BATTLEFORD0107/309059988/-1/BATTLEFORD/trip-to-cuba-sustainable-organic-farming, Accessed 9/5/2013Cuba is a world leader in sustainable organic farming and, as I am interested in all types of farming, I wanted to see for myself how farmers were managing to thrive in Cuba. The trip was organized by Wendy Holm who had connections with ANAP and co-operatives in Cuba. For a little background and understanding of Cuban history and challenges, the following is from a website on Cuban sustainable organic farming. I couldn’t say it any better or shorter. “Cuba was once dependent on imports from the Soviet Union for a large percentage of staple goods as well as fertilizers, pesticides, animal feed and petroleum. The farms were large, high-input industrial farms, many of which grew cash crops in monocultures for export. “When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1989, Cuba was plunged into a severe economic crisis, where imports of food and other basic necessities, including pesticides and chemical fertilizers, fell overnight. Within a year the country lost over 80% of its foreign trade, which compounded by ongoing US embargos, triggered widespread hunger and malnutrition in what was known as Cuba’s “special period”. Without infrastructure or fuel to transport goods from rural to urban areas, the cities had no way of feeding themselves. The crisis spurred the government into action: switched from the export of cash crops to growing food crops for domestic consumption; mobilizing resources and putting the urban wastelands into use as farms and orchards; offered incentives to encourage people to move back to rural areas to work on the land; and changed many state farms to co-operatives. “Organic farming was specifically emphasized, and all over Cuba, production was converted from high-input agriculture to low-input, self-reliant farming using a mix of old techniques and new organic farming practices, for example: Composting and vermicomposting; Soil and water conservation; Intercropping; Encouraging natural predators of pests; Replacing synthetic with natural fertilizers; Increasing diversity of crops grown; Integrating grazing animals; Cover cropping to suppress weeds; Rotating crops. “By 1995, the food shortage had been overcome …. In 2002, Cuba produced 3.2 million tons of food in urban farms and gardens, providing fresh organic produce to the population and improving the diet of Cubans. Gardens attached to schools are more common as local food

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production, and ecological issues are a required part of the curriculum. Most rural homes produce their own staple foods, including beans and traditional root/tuber crops.

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Urban Agriculture DA - Uniqueness

Cuba is a global leader in sustainable organic farming. Urban agriculture is integrated into education to revitalize the entire island Marcella Pedersen, NFU Region 6 Women’s Advisory Committee, September 5, 2013, “Trip to Cuba – sustainable organic farming,” The Battleford’s News-Optimist, http://www.newsoptimist.ca/article/20130905/BATTLEFORD0107/309059988/-1/battleford01/trip-to-cuba-sustainable-organic-farming, Accessed 9/19/2013Cuba is a world leader in sustainable organic farming and, as I am interested in all types of farming, I wanted to see for myself how farmers were managing to thrive in Cuba. The trip was organized by Wendy Holm who had connections with ANAP and co-operatives in Cuba. For a little background and understanding of Cuban history and challenges, the following is from a website on Cuban sustainable organic farming. I couldn’t say it any better or shorter. “Cuba was once dependent on imports from the Soviet Union for a large percentage of staple goods as well as fertilizers, pesticides, animal feed and petroleum. The farms were large, high-input industrial farms, many of which grew cash crops in monocultures for export. “When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1989, Cuba was plunged into a severe economic crisis, where imports of food and other basic necessities, including pesticides and chemical fertilizers, fell overnight. Within a year the country lost over 80% of its foreign trade, which compounded by ongoing US embargos, triggered widespread hunger and malnutrition in what was known as Cuba’s “special period”. Without infrastructure or fuel to transport goods from rural to urban areas, the cities had no way of feeding themselves. The crisis spurred the government into action: switched from the export of cash crops to growing food crops for domestic consumption; mobilizing resources and putting the urban wastelands into use as farms and orchards; offered incentives to encourage people to move back to rural areas to work on the land; and changed many state farms to co-operatives. “Organic farming was specifically emphasized, and all over Cuba, production was converted from high-input agriculture to low-input, self-reliant farming using a mix of old techniques and new organic farming practices, for example: Composting and vermicomposting; Soil and water conservation; Intercropping; Encouraging natural predators of pests; Replacing synthetic with natural fertilizers; Increasing diversity of crops grown; Integrating grazing animals; Cover cropping to suppress weeds; Rotating crops. “By 1995, the food shortage had been overcome …. In 2002, Cuba produced 3.2 million tons of food in urban farms and gardens, providing fresh organic produce to the population and improving the diet of Cubans. Gardens attached to schools are more common as local food production, and ecological issues are a required part of the curriculum. Most rural homes produce their own staple foods, including beans and traditional root/tuber crops.

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MEXICO NEG.

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Solvency Answers – Reforms Have Long Timeframe

It will take several years before Mexican energy reform can produce measureable benefitsMyra P. Saefong, Staff Writer, August 23, 2013, “Why foreign oil firms should look at Mexico,” Market Watch, Accessed 9/21/2013, http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-foreign-oil-firms-should-look-at-mexico-2013-08-23Although it could take a long while before the reforms come to fruition, the opportunities investment in Mexico’s energy sector present for the U.S. and major global oil companies and the potential for growing supplies make them worth the wait — and warrant a closer look. “Opening Mexico could be huge because they have so much unexplored land and in the past, Mexican production has been good,” said Charles Perry, chief executive officer at energy-consulting firm Perry Management. “They are late getting started. This would have been more attractive 10 to 20 years ago when oil was in shorter supply worldwide,” he said. “But oil companies are routinely looking may years ahead and if the terms offered allow companies plenty of years to develop this new production, it will be an attractive investment for many big oil companies.”

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Solvency Answers – No Investment

Investors are cautious about Mexico now because new reforms are vagueMyra P. Saefong, Staff Writer, August 23, 2013, “Why foreign oil firms should look at Mexico,” Market Watch, Accessed 9/21/2013, http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-foreign-oil-firms-should-look-at-mexico-2013-08-23And there’s a lot of potential for those foreign players, assuming that the Mexican government approves the proposals and that the players can figure out the logistics involved with them. “It’s too early to be able to determine the effect that the proposed changes will have on the market because much of it will depend on the interest from private investors, in particular major oil and gas players, to invest in Mexican reserves without being able to account for them in their books,” said Manuel Rajunov, co-managing partner of global law firm DLA Piper’s Mexico City office.

Too many questions now for certainty. U.S. businesses won’t investMyra P. Saefong, Staff Writer, August 23, 2013, “Why foreign oil firms should look at Mexico,” Market Watch, Accessed 9/21/2013, http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-foreign-oil-firms-should-look-at-mexico-2013-08-23Among the questions, according to Carter, that are likely to be addressed by the end of the year or early next: “How attractive are the conditions for the profit-sharing agreements? Will participants be allowed to book the reserves as if they own them, even though the Mexican government will be the sole owner of all oil discoveries according to domestic law? Those will need to be answered before outsiders decide to become involved. “U.S. companies are interested in the potential but there has to be certainty of stability before U.S. companies spend the billions of dollars necessary for oil and gas development,” said Mark Stansberry, chairman at energy-management firm GTD Group. There will be “caution, especially in the early stages.”

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Reforms Won’t Change Oil Market

Stiff opposition means Mexican reforms will get watered down, specifically with oilPatrice Hill, Staff Writer, September 12, 2013, “Mexico could make North America the world leader in oil production,” Washington Times, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/sep/12/mexico-could-make-north-america-the-world-leader-i/?page=all, Accessed 9/21/2013Christopher Swann, an analyst with Reuters Breakingviews, doubts that the country is ready for big changes. He said stiff opposition has forced Mr. Pena Nieto to back off his most ambitious oil reform ideas, and the limited opportunities for profits under his legislation will not attract major oil companies, which have boycotted Mexico’s efforts to spur production. “He’s watered down plans to end the state oil monopoly to placate nationalists,” he said. “That’s bad for foreign oil companies needed to jump-start production — and shows rivals may weaken his broader agenda.”

82

Mexican Economy Rebounding

The Mexican economy is strong and the manufacturing base is reboundingDamian Cave, Staff Writer, September 21, 2013, “For Migrants, New Land of Opportunity Is Mexico,” New York Times, Accessed 9/21/2013, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/22/world/americas/for-migrants-new-land-of-opportunity-is-mexico.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 Mexico, whose economic woes have pushed millions of people north, is increasingly becoming an immigrant destination. The country’s documented foreign-born population nearly doubled between 2000 and 2010, and officials now say the pace is accelerating as broad changes in the global economy create new dynamics of migration. Rising wages in China and higher transportation costs have made Mexican manufacturing highly competitive again, with some projections suggesting it is already cheaper than China for many industries serving the American market. Europe is sputtering, pushing workers away. And while Mexico’s economy is far from trouble free, its growth easily outpaced the giants of the hemisphere — the United States, Canada and Brazil — in 2011 and 2012, according to International Monetary Fund data, making the country more attractive to fortune seekers worldwide.

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Mexican Economic Decline Inevitable

Denationalizing the oil industry will inevitably fragment the economy and drive away regional alliesJames Petras, retired Bartle Professor (Emeritus) of Sociology at Binghamton University in Binghamton, New York and adjunct professor at Saint Mary's University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada, September 10, 2013, “Mexico’s Unfolding Political Crisis: Denationalization and the Privatisation of Oil and Electricity,” Global Research, http://www.globalresearch.ca/mexicos-unfolding-political-crisis-denationalization-and-the-privatisation-of-oil-and-electricity/5349119?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=mexicos-unfolding-political-crisis-denationalization-and-the-privatisation-of-oil-and-electricity, Accessed 9/21/2013The denationalization of strategic sectors of the Mexican economy increases national vulnerability to imperial pressures, isolates Mexico from regional alliances and creates a class of collaborator politicians whose primary loyalty is to the MNC – not to the citizens of the country. Within the current world disorder, Washington is continually engaged in wars in the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia. Ownership of the Mexican petroleum industry serves as a US strategic reserve in the face of boycotts and war-induced shortages. In any global conflict, Mexico, as a strategic supplier of petrol to Washington, will become an object or target of numerous US adversaries. The political costs to Mexico of denationalization of strategic economic sectors (like oil and electricity) in the context of growing political links to a highly militarized state, like the US , are high and have no commensurate benefits. Mexico effectively surrenders its political independence, isolates itself from its Latin American neighbors, fragments its national economy and deepens the colonial character of its state and economy.

Multiple factors will drag down the Mexican economyNathaniel Parish Flannery, Staff Writer, August 27, 2013, “Mexico: Is The Aztec Tiger Starting To Whimper?,” Forbes, http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanielparishflannery/2013/08/27/mexico-is-the-aztec-tiger-starting-to-whimper/, Accessed 9/22/2013Although Mexico rebounded quickly from the global recession, reporting 5.5% growth in 2010 and outpacing Brazil in both 2011 and 2012, recent growth rates have disappointed many investors. A 3% growth rate is underwhelming in comparison to the 5% or 6% that some analysts predicted. Mexico’s stock market has fallen and investor confidence may be diminishing. In a recent interview Henry Tricks, The Economist’s Mexico correspondent explained “there does seem to be a very serious crime problem here [and] anecdotal evidence that investment is being curtailed because companies are worried about the…situation. People are worried about crime.” Tourism, one of Mexico’s most important sectors, has also been affected by security concerns. Telecommunications reform, education reform, fiscal reform and energy reform are all ambitious projects, but the government needs to make sure it can implement these measures and turn campaign promises into policies. Overall though, many of Mexico’s economic problems stem from weak growth in countries around the globe in general and in the U.S. in particular.

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Mexican Economy Low Now

Mexico’s economy has slowed to a crawlJohn Paul Rathbone, Staff Writer, September 15, 2013, “Mexico’s ‘Aztec tiger’ economy struggles to earn its stripes,” Financial Times, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/98d9f736-1c81-11e3-a8a3-00144feab7de.html#axzz2ff2CJhjo, Accessed 9/22/2013When Enrique Peña Nieto assumed the Mexican presidency in December, he seemed to promise a breath of fresh air to blow away the cobwebs of the past and unleash an “ Aztec tiger ”. Ten months later, however, the tiger appears to have run out of puff. The economy has slowed to a crawl and Mr Peña Nieto’s reform drive seems to be flagging. Protesting teachers have held the capital to ransom, blocking the airport and the Zócalo central square. A parallel group, waving placards emblazoned with mustachioed heroes from Mexican history, wants to block energy reform.

Mexican economic growth slowing nowNathaniel Parish Flannery, Staff Writer, August 27, 2013, “Mexico: Is The Aztec Tiger Starting To Whimper?,” Forbes, http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanielparishflannery/2013/08/27/mexico-is-the-aztec-tiger-starting-to-whimper/, Accessed 9/22/2013Mexico’s Finance Ministry cut its 2013 growth forecast for Mexico to 1.8%, down from its previous prediction of 3.1%. Mexico’s National Statistics Institute reported that the country’s GDP (at least when seasonally adjusted) actually contracted 0.74% during the second quarter of 2013. This is more bad news for the economy that Thomas Friedman hastily dubbed the Aztec Tiger. In the fourth quarter Mexico’s economy grew at an anemic 0.8 percent. Despite campaign promises that voters would “earn more” and the introduction of an ambitious set of reform bills, Mexico’s economy started to slow at exactly at the time that the country’s new president, Enrique Peña Nieto, took office.

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VENEZUELA NEG.

86

Russia DA - Links

Russia has extensive economic and military ties with VenezuelaDavid Smilde, senior fellow at the Washington Office on Latin America and associate professor of sociology at the University of Georgia And Timothy Gill, doctoral candidate in the Department of Sociology at the University of Georgia, September 17, 2013, “Strategic Posture Review: Venezuela,” World Politics Review, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/13224/strategic-posture-review-venezuela, Accessed 9/18/2013A confluence of interests has brought Russia and Venezuela together. First Chavez and now Maduro have found in Russian President Vladimir Putin an ally in trying to balance the U.S. In addition, like Venezuela and Iran, Russia is an oil producer that prefers to maximize its profits by maximizing prices rather than production. Russian investments in Venezuela now total $21 billion , with a large part of them going toward Venezuelan oil infrastructure. Finally, since the U.S. will not sell Venezuela military weapons and has blocked countries that use U.S. technology in their weapons manufacturing from selling weapons to Venezuela, Caracas has depended on Russia to modernize its military. Since 2007, the Venezuelan government has purchased $11 billion worth of military equipment from Russia , including submarines, Sukhoi fighter jets, assault rifles and army tanks. The Russian and Venezuelan navies have also performed military exercises together off the Venezuelan coast.

87

Iran DA - Links

Iran has strong historical ties with VenezuelaDavid Smilde, senior fellow at the Washington Office on Latin America and associate professor of sociology at the University of Georgia And Timothy Gill, doctoral candidate in the Department of Sociology at the University of Georgia, September 17, 2013, “Strategic Posture Review: Venezuela,” World Politics Review, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/13224/strategic-posture-review-venezuela, Accessed 9/18/2013Perhaps the most disturbing relationship that Venezuela has maintained under Chavez has been with the Iranian government. On multiple occasions, Chavez and former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad traveled through Caracas and Tehran and publicly embraced one another, referring to each other as allies and brothers in the struggle against imperialism. In 2010 and 2011, the Chavez government defied U.S. sanctions against Iran and delivered oil to the Middle Eastern country , which resulted in U.S. sanctions, albeit largely symbolic ones, against PDVSA. Although this relationship disturbs much of the outside world, it is a far less novel relationship than, for example, Belarusian-Venezuelan relations. In fact, Venezuela and Iran have had diplomatic relations since 1947 and have participated together in OPEC since 1960. Since this time, the two countries have mutually preferred maximizing their oil profits through limited production. In recent years, Iran and Venezuela have established hundreds of agreements, including accords involving food, technology and communications, among other areas. Historically, and more specifically, the two countries’ agreements have involved the transfer of medical equipment, gun powder and agro-industrial equipment. They have also involved Iranian assistance with the construction of government housing for Mision Vivienda as well as several factories. In 2012, bilateral exchange amounted to $17 billion.

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Terrorism DA - Links

The Venezuela n military is directly tied to nacro-terrorismDavid Smilde, senior fellow at the Washington Office on Latin America and associate professor of sociology at the University of Georgia And Timothy Gill, doctoral candidate in the Department of Sociology at the University of Georgia, September 17, 2013, “Strategic Posture Review: Venezuela,” World Politics Review, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/13224/strategic-posture-review-venezuela, Accessed 9/18/2013The “Cartel of the Suns” refers to the alleged drug-trafficking network that exists within the Venezuelan military forces. The term “cartel” is a bit misleading, however. Analysts point out that various cells exist throughout the military with no hierarchical leadership. These cells are alleged to primarily exist in western Venezuela, along the border with Colombia, and to traffic drugs, primarily cocaine, across the border with assistance from the FARC and through several ports on the Caribbean coast. While the notion of a cartel within the military developed in 1993 as a result of an investigation into several military officials assisting with drug trafficking across the Colombian border, it is suspected that drug-trafficking has increased over the past decade or so, due to the termination at that time of the peace process between the FARC guerillas and the Colombian government, and the alleged security threats that the Venezuelan government faces from U.S. military bases in Colombia. The former development pushed FARC guerillas closer to the Venezuelan border, while the latter dynamic meant the placement of more Venezuelan military personnel along the border with Colombia, increasing interaction between the two groups. Since 2008, when several laptops were retrieved by the Colombian military during a raid on a FARC base across the Ecuadorean border, the U.S. and other countries have accused high-ranking Venezuelan government and military officials of participating in the drug trade. As a result, the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has placed sanctions on several high-ranking officials, including Henry Rangel Silva, Venezuela’s former minister of defense, and Ramon Rodriguez Chacin, Venezuela’s former minister of the interior and justice, among others, claiming that they assisted the FARC in smuggling cocaine into Venezuela. The Venezuelan government has repeatedly denied these claims, and, in recent years, has even deported several high-ranking FARC members and drug-traffickers to Colombia for prosecution.

The military is corrupt and engaged in drug traffickingDavid Smilde, senior fellow at the Washington Office on Latin America and associate professor of sociology at the University of Georgia And Timothy Gill, doctoral candidate in the Department of Sociology at the University of Georgia, September 17, 2013, “Strategic Posture Review: Venezuela,” World Politics Review, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/13224/strategic-posture-review-venezuela, Accessed 9/18/2013The Venezuelan military’s social and political role significantly increased during the Chavez years, as did its capabilities. However, it has little international profile. It has not participated in peacekeeping missions, for example, although it has engaged in humanitarian actions in Haiti, Bolivia, Nicaragua and other countries. Transparency in military expenditures and operations has declined significantly, and there is a good deal of debate(.pdf) concerning expenditures and capabilities. Most observers, however, suggest there is considerable corruption (.pdf) and involvement in drug trafficking. This combined with politicization likely affects its overall readiness.

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90

U.S. Shale Turn

Lack of oil engagement with Venezuela secures the shale oil boom. It’s key to jobs and the U.S. economySean Goforth, Affiliated Researcher, Portuguese Institute of International Relations and Security (IPRIS), September 25, 2013, “US – Latin America Relations: In Defense Of Benign Neglect – Analysis,” Eurasia Review, http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/content/ analysis-defense-benign-neglect-us-latin-america-relations, Accessed 9/26/2013The first omitted point is the United States has benefitted from developments south of the border as well, albeit in a slow and often indirect fashion. Lawmakers in Washington who took seriously Hugo Chávez’s puffery about diverting Venezuelan oil to China helped free up restrictions on shale gas fracking, which has eased the way for America’s current oil and gas bonanza. Estimates vary about how many jobs will be created and other long-term effects, but even at this early stage in the shale boom it is clear that the US economy will be bolstered in multiple ways. Jobs will be created, and low natural gas prices will give spending power to consumers and businesses in the United States. The domestic windfall will help mend the US trade balance because less gas will be imported.

The plan results in global nuclear warMathew Harris, PhD European History @ Cambridge, counselor of the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC) and Jennifer Burrows member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit, 2009, “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis” http://csisdev.forumone.com/files/publication/twq09aprilburrowsharris.pdf, Accessed 9/26/2013Of course, the report encompasses more than economics and indeed believes the future is likely to be the result of a number of intersecting and interlocking forces. With so many possible permutations of outcomes, each with ample Revisiting the Future opportunity for unintended consequences, there is a growing sense of

insecurity. Even so, history may be more instructive than ever. While we continue to believe that the Great Depression is not

likely to be repeated, the lessons to be drawn from that period include the harmful effects on fledgling democracies and

multiethnic societies (think Central Europe in 1920s and 1930s) and on the sustainability of multilateral institutions (think League of

Nations in the same period). There is no reason to think that this would not be true in the twenty-first as much as in the twentieth century. For that

reason, the ways in which the potential for greater conflict could grow would seem to be even more apt in a constantly volatile economic environment as they would be if change would be steadier. In surveying those risks, the report stressed the likelihood that terrorism and

nonproliferation will remain priorities even as resource issues move up on the international agenda. Terrorism’s appeal will decline if economic growth continues in the Middle East and youth unemployment is reduced. For those terrorist groups that remain active in 2025,

however, the diffusion of technologies and scientific knowledge will place some of the world’s most dangerous capabilities within their reach. Terrorist groups in 2025 will likely be a combination of descendants of long established groups_inheriting organizational structures, command and control

processes, and training procedures necessary to conduct sophisticated attacks and newly emergent collections of the angry and disenfranchised that become self-radicalized, particularly in the absence of economic outlets that would become narrower in an economic downturn. The most dangerous casualty of any economically-induced drawdown of U.S. military presence would almost certainly be the Middle East. Although Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons is not inevitable, worries about a nuclear-armed Iran could lead states in the region to develop new security arrangements with external powers, acquire additional weapons, and consider pursuing their own nuclear ambitions. It is not clear that the type of stable deterrent relationship that existed between the great powers for most of the Cold War would emerge naturally in the Middle East with a nuclear Iran. Episodes of low intensity conflict and terrorism taking place under a nuclear umbrella could lead to an unintended escalation and broader conflict if clear red lines between those states involved are not well established. The close proximity of potential nuclear rivals combined with underdeveloped surveillance capabilities and mobile dual-capable Iranian missile systems also will produce inherent difficulties in achieving reliable indications and warning of an impending nuclear attack. The lack of strategic depth in neighboring states

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like Israel, short warning and missile flight times, and uncertainty of Iranian intentions may place more focus on preemption rather than

defense, potentially leading to escalating crises.

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Increasing Oil Exports Now

Venezuela just made new oil export contracts with the Palestinian AuthorityEwan Robertson, Staff Writer for Venezuela Analysis, September 2, 2013, “Venezuela, Palestine conclude solidarity oil deal,” Green Leaf Weekly, http://www.greenleft.org.au/node/54896, Accessed 9/5/2013Venezuela has agreed to sell oil to the Palestinian Authority (PA) at a “fair price” as part of new energy agreements with the Middle Eastern government. The deals, made during a meeting between Venezuelan foreign minister Elias Jaua and his PA counterpart Riyah al-Malki in Caracas on August 24, include the training of Palestinians in the handling and distribution of oil.

93

Massive Economic Failure Now

The Venezuelan economy is ridden with economic instability and structural decayDavid Smilde, senior fellow at the Washington Office on Latin America and associate professor of sociology at the University of Georgia And Timothy Gill, doctoral candidate in the Department of Sociology at the University of Georgia, September 17, 2013, “Strategic Posture Review: Venezuela,” World Politics Review, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/13224/strategic-posture-review-venezuela, Accessed 9/18/2013Chavez enjoys posthumous approval ratings in the 70 percent range, while Maduro struggles to confront the issues of governance he inherited. Chavez’s economic model, which depended on exporting oil and importing most everything else, is showing its weakness as Venezuela flirts with hyperinflation, shortages of basic consumer goods and an official exchange rate that is overvalued by 500 percent. This is accompanied by deteriorating infrastructure, crises in hospitals and higher education, and a wave of crime and violence that continues unabated.

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A2: U.S. Relations

Drug accusations are degrading U.S.-Venezuelan relations nowFox News Latino, Staff Writer, September 17, 2013, “Venezuela And Bolivia Angry At U.S. For Putting Nations On Drug 'Black List',” http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2013/09/17/venezuela-and-bolivia-angry-at-us-for-putting-nations-on-drug-black-list/, Accessed 9/21/2013A White House report blacklisting Bolivia and Venezuela as major countries for drug production and transportation respectively has drawn the ire of leaders in Caracas and La Paz. The statement – released last week and signed by U.S. President Barack Obama – named Venezuela and Bolivia, along with Burma, as failing to adhere to international counternarcotics obligations over the past year. The same accusations were leveled against the Latin American nations last year. “I hereby designate Bolivia, Burma, and Venezuela as countries that have failed demonstrably during the previous 12 months to make substantial efforts to adhere to their obligations under international counternarcotics agreements,” Obama said in the statement. Drug trafficking has been a touchy issue in U.S.-Venezuelan relations ever since the late leader Hugo Chávez expelled the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) in 2005 and accused its agents of spying on the "Bolivarian Revolution.” Speaking over the weekend, the country’s national anti-drug office chief, Alejandro Keleris, said that Venezuela arrested more than 6,400 people for trafficking and seized almost 80,000 pounds of various drugs since the beginning of 2013. It also captured more than 100 drug gang bosses and handed over 75 to other countries, including the U.S., since 2006, said Keleris. “We strongly reject the accusation … the United States is trying to ignore our government's sovereign policies," he said.

95

Maduro Can’t Be Trusted

Maduro hates the U.S. and has turned engagement toward ChinaAntonio Herrera-Vaillant, Staff Writer, September 24, 2013, “Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro Snubs Washington For Beijing,” Fox News Latino, http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/opinion/2013/09/24/venezuelan-president-nicolas-maduro-snubs-washington-for-beijing/, Accessed 9/26/2013To listen to the current Venezuelan government talking about the United States, you might think that a squad of CIA agents is just waiting to seize President Nicolás Maduro on a street corner in Manhattan, where he is attending the United Nations General Assembly meeting. Following unsubstantiated claims last week that the U.S. closed its airspace to Maduro's plane as he flew to China, Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elias Jaua has written to the UN Secretary-General, Ban Ki Moon, demanding "guarantees that we are going to be respected by the government of the United States." Jaua also said that the State Department had denied visas to members of the Venezuelan delegation heading to the UN – an allegation firmly denied in Washington. These outbursts of hatred toward the U.S. are to be expected from the Venezuelan regime, which has accused the Americans of all sorts of conspiracies in the last few months, from assassinating the late President, Hugo Chávez, to plotting the shortage of basic goods like cooking oil and toilet paper which is currently plaguing the country. There is some purpose behind these accusations. Maduro is looking for a great power ally and he thinks he's found one in China. Maduro's trip to China last week came just days after the Venezuelan government announced a $14 billion deal with the China National Petroleum Corporation for a project to develop the Junín 10 block in Venezuela's Orinoco region, an area that holds one of the largest oil reserves in the world. Over the last decade, Venezuela's relations with China have grown warmer at all levels. When he served as Venezuela's foreign minister under Chávez, Maduro assiduously cultivated China's ruling communists, regarding them as both an ideological and an economic ally. After the United States, China is Venezuela's biggest trade partner, and Venezuela has become the main destination for Chinese investment in Latin America.

Maduro is a dictator and is explicitly aligning Venezuela with authoritarian regimesAntonio Herrera-Vaillant, Staff Writer, September 24, 2013, “Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro Snubs Washington For Beijing,” Fox News Latino, http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/opinion/2013/09/24/venezuelan-president-nicolas-maduro-snubs-washington-for-beijing/, Accessed 9/26/2013Maduro and those loyal to him are fond of presenting the relationship with China as integral to the country's socialist orientation. Yul Jabour, the president of the Venezuelan parliament's Foreign Policy Committee, trumpeted Maduro's Beijing visit as essential for the well-being of the "Bolivarian revolution." Alongside China, Jabour named Russia, Iran and Belarus as countries with whom Venezuela enjoys a fruitful relationship. Interestingly, Cuba, which receives a colossal $8 billion worth of subsidised oil from Venezuela each year, didn't make it onto Jabour's list of friends. Regardless, what all these countries have in common is that they are run by authoritarian regimes. Following the widely disputed presidential election in April of this year, in which Maduro held onto power after refusing a recount, Venezuela has steadily been developing the features of a more traditional dictatorship. As that tragic process continues, Maduro has come to understand that he needs allies who share his view of the world, but who won't bleed the country's resources – as Cuba does – at the same time.

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TOPIC DISADVANTAGES

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Politics DA

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Cuba Links – Reform requires political capital

Cuba reform requires substantial political capitalWilliam M. LeoGrande, PhD & Prof. of Government in the School of Public Affairs at American Univ., August 29, 2013, “What’s Up with Cuba Policy?,” AULA Blog, Center for Latin American and Latino Studies, American University, http://aulablog.net/2013/08/29/whats-up-with-cuba-policy/, Accessed 9/15/2013Although U.S. policy is no longer completely paralyzed by the predicament of Alan Gross, it remains tentative, cautious, and incremental – far from the bold stroke that Fidel Castro was hoping for from a second-term president. In May, the State Department again listed Cuba as a “state sponsor of terrorism” in its annual report, although the rationale read more like a justification for removing Cuba from the list—a move reportedly under discussion by the Obama team. When the administration sent its FY2014 budget request to Capitol Hill, it again requested $20 million for “democracy promotion” in Cuba, continuing programs like the one that got Alan Gross arrested. Radio and TV Martí, which cost U.S. taxpayers $28 million a year, continue to beam programs below Voice of America standards to a shrinking radio audience and non-existent TV viewers. (Cubans call TV Martí “la TV que no se ve” —No-See TV.) If Obama had the mettle to make the bold stroke, these provocative, ineffectual programs would be on the chopping block in tough budgetary times. More positively, the president could take the initiative by appointing a special envoy to talk turkey with Havana, and he could promote a U.S. policy debate on Cuba that’s long overdue. Incrementalism will only take us so far. Real change in U.S.-Cuban relations requires vision and courage – qualities Obama displayed on comprehensive health care and immigration reform. After all , as Lyndon Johnson once said, “What the hell’s the presidency for?”

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Cuba Links – Closing GITMO requires political capital

Obama isn’t using capital on GITMO now. The plan requires a massive investmentLuke Jerod Kummer, Congressional correspondent, August 28, 2013, “Will Congress Put Obama’s Push To Shutter Gitmo on Lockdown?,” Washington Diplomat, http://www.washdiplomat.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=9528:will-congress-put-obamas-push-to-shutter-gitmo-on-lockdown&catid=1506&Itemid=428, Accessed 9/18/2013"It's very likely that, given politics, Congress will beat [Obama] over the head with it, so he just seems unwilling to engage in that dispute," Dixon said, offering a soupçon of empathy for the president's predicament while lamenting his reluctance to use the special waivers. "He seems unwilling to do what is necessary politically to actually effect the closure of the prison." When The Diplomat contacted the White House in July to ask when Gitmo transfers would resume, Laura Lucas, a spokeswoman for the National Security Council, responded that "the president has directed the administration to transfer detainees when possible, and we are actively pursuing that." "However, the extremely restrictive nature of current legislation severely limits the transfer process," Lucas said.

Obama must expend political capital to close GITMOHuman Rights First, July 2013, “Guantanamo: A Comprehensive Exit Strategy,” http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/uploads/ pdfs/close-GTMO-july-2013.pdf, Accessed 9/18/2013Guantanamo will not be closed by the end of the president’s second term unless the White House drives the process and establishes momentum . It must ensure that the relevant agencies and departments work together to transfer cleared detainees out of Guantanamo quickly and at a steady pace, using to the maximum extent the waiver authority Congress has provided to facilitate transfers. The White House must also ensure that the Department of Defense, in conjunction with the other relevant agencies and departments, conducts immediate, thorough reviews of other detainees whom the administration does not intend to prosecute to determine whether they can be transferred. To date, the administration has not used the waiver authority—which it has had for more than 18 months—to transfer a single cleared detainee. It also has failed to conduct a single Periodic Review Board (PRB) hearing for non-cleared detainees despite the president’s executive order requiring that all such hearings be conducted by March 7, 201213—more than 16 months ago. However, in an encouraging development, the Pentagon has announced that PRB hearings will begin soon, though it has not said when or established a timeline for completing the hearings.

GITMO is a political football that requires huge capitalLuke Jerod Kummer, Congressional correspondent, August 28, 2013, “Will Congress Put Obama’s Push To Shutter Gitmo on Lockdown?,” Washington Diplomat, http://www.washdiplomat.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=9528:will-congress-put-obamas-push-to-shutter-gitmo-on-lockdown&catid=1506&Itemid=428, Accessed 9/18/2013The House has already rebuffed the administration's latest drive to close Guantanamo, passing a $600 billion defense bill that not only maintains the restrictions on transferring detainees, in particular to Yemen, but even allocates nearly $250 million in construction upgrades for prison facilities at Gitmo. Claude Chafin, spokesman for the House Armed Services Committee, chaired by Rep. Buck McKeon (R-Calif.), told The Diplomat that McKeon had sent four letters over the past two years to the White House offering to discuss detainee policy but none received a response. "It's just a political game," McKeon

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told the New York Times this spring. "They like to point to this as our intransigence, but we have worked with them."

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Cuba Links – Closing GITMO requires political capital

Closing GITMO requires significant political capitalLuke Jerod Kummer, Congressional correspondent, August 28, 2013, “Will Congress Put Obama’s Push To Shutter Gitmo on Lockdown?,” Washington Diplomat, http://www.washdiplomat.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=9528:will-congress-put-obamas-push-to-shutter-gitmo-on-lockdown&catid=1506&Itemid=428, Accessed 9/18/2013Prasow also said she has long believed that Obama would make a strong push to close Guantanamo at this point in his second term because he retains significant political capital and the 2014 midterm elections are still more than a year away. How much force he can muster, and how much risk he can stand, remains to be seen. But advocates like Prasow can take heart in knowing that Obama's legacy is tightly bound to this issue — something he seemed keenly aware of during his speech at the National Defense University. "I know the politics are hard," Obama told the audience. "But history will cast a harsh judgment on this aspect of our fight against terrorism and those of us who fail to end it."

Even Obama admits the plan is controversial in Congress. Their resistance means that Obama will have to burn a lot of capitalLuke Jerod Kummer, Congressional correspondent, August 28, 2013, “Will Congress Put Obama’s Push To Shutter Gitmo on Lockdown?,” Washington Diplomat, http://www.washdiplomat.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=9528:will-congress-put-obamas-push-to-shutter-gitmo-on-lockdown&catid=1506&Itemid=428, Accessed 9/18/2013Obama's address at the National Defense University in May was meant to signal that he remains committed to reining in what he called a "boundless global war on terror." At the end of the wide-ranging counterterrorism speech that covered military tactics abroad and civil liberties at home, Obama listed the steps he'd take to end the Gitmo era once and for all, while continuing to blame the prison's stubborn endurance on intransigence in Washington. "[The detention center] has become a symbol around the world for an America that flouts the rule of law. Our allies won't cooperate with us if they think a terrorist will end up at Gitmo," he said. "During a time of budget cuts, we spend $150 million each year to imprison 166 people — almost $1 million per prisoner. And the Department of Defense estimates that we must spend another $200 million to keep Gitmo open at a time when we're cutting investments in education and research here at home, and when the Pentagon is struggling with sequester and budget cuts." This, he said, was the fault of lawmakers on Capitol Hill. "I transferred 67 detainees to other countries before Congress imposed restrictions to effectively prevent us from either transferring detainees to other countries or imprisoning them here in the United States," he said. "There is no justification beyond politics for Congress to prevent us from closing a facility that should have never been opened."

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Closing GITMO is Politically Controversial

Closing GITMO is politically controversial and the hunger strike heightens attentionLuke Jerod Kummer, Congressional correspondent, August 28, 2013, “Will Congress Put Obama’s Push To Shutter Gitmo on Lockdown?,” Washington Diplomat, http://www.washdiplomat.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=9528:will-congress-put-obamas-push-to-shutter-gitmo-on-lockdown&catid=1506&Itemid=428, Accessed 9/18/2013Obama used to think so, too. In the run-up to the 2008 election, the presidential nominees from both parties called for the controversial American prison on Cuban soil to be shuttered. But when Obama took office and signed an executive order in January 2009 to close Gitmo within a year, he conversely renewed the issue as a political fight between the White House and Congress and among legislators. More than four years later, 166 detainees remain at Guantanamo — taken into custody during the Bush administration in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks 12 years ago this month. More than half of them are in the midst of a months-long hunger strike, which guards have dealt with by strapping them into chairs so nutrients can be pumped into their nostrils. The protest has refocused attention on the prison, which stands as a bitter reminder of how many of the policies that sprang up after 9/11 — the very ones that Obama railed against during his historic charge to the White House — persist today with no clear end in sight.

Special transfer waivers make the plan highly contentious. Obama will have to court HagelLuke Jerod Kummer, Congressional correspondent, August 28, 2013, “Will Congress Put Obama’s Push To Shutter Gitmo on Lockdown?,” Washington Diplomat, http://www.washdiplomat.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=9528:will-congress-put-obamas-push-to-shutter-gitmo-on-lockdown&catid=1506&Itemid=428, Accessed 9/18/2013The 2012 National Defense Authorization Act bars almost all Gitmo transfers unless they receive a special waiver from a senior administration official — and that unenviable task falls on Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, potentially placing him in an extremely vulnerable position. If he were to sign off on a detainee who was later linked to a terrorist attack, the defense secretary would be on the hot seat — again — just like he was during his contentious confirmation hearings. "Congress decided to make this a very political issue and required someone to take personal responsibility for each transfer," said Prasow. "The person that they're holding responsible is the secretary of defense." Clearly, the political risks are immense, especially as the administration relies on Hagel to help it wind down the war in Afghanistan. Dixon seemed to acknowledge as much, but he said that if Obama is committed to closing Guantanamo, he must make use of the options available to him.

Congress has repeatedly blocked all efforts to close GITMOLuke Jerod Kummer, Congressional correspondent, August 28, 2013, “Will Congress Put Obama’s Push To Shutter Gitmo on Lockdown?,” Washington Diplomat, http://www.washdiplomat.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=9528:will-congress-put-obamas-push-to-shutter-gitmo-on-lockdown&catid=1506&Itemid=428, Accessed 9/18/2013It's true that Congress has repeatedly stymied Obama's efforts to close Gitmo. In 2010, there was a Republican uproar after the administration said it wanted to relocate captives to a vacant prison in Illinois and to have 9/11 plotter Khalid Sheikh Mohammed appear before a New York federal court. The outcry ignored the fact that the United States has successfully convicted scores of high-profile terrorists

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in civilian courts (in contrast, the military tribunals at Gitmo have barely convicted a handful of prisoners). More than 200 international terrorists are also locked up in U.S. jails, including 9/11 co-conspirator Zacarias Moussaoui, who'll spend the rest of his life in a super-max prison in Colorado. (Illinois officials were eager to develop a similar facility because of the economic boost it would've provided their state.) Testifying before the Senate last month, Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.), the ranking Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, called it "stupefying ... the degree to which people seem unaware of the fact that we already hold hundreds of terrorists in United States super-max prisons." Smith also called Gitmo a boondoggle that has cost taxpayers $4.7 billion since it opened in 2002. "The Department of Defense is spending $454.1 million on total costs for Guantanamo Bay detention operations in 2013, which is about $2.7 million per detainee, compared to the average figure of $34,046 required to hold a prisoner in a maximum security federal prison in the United States," he said. "The facilities at Guantanamo Bay were designed to be temporary and are rapidly deteriorating, requiring new temporary construction," Smith added. Nevertheless, since 2010 Congress has used its spending authority to block Guantanamo detainees from being tried or sent to prisons on U.S. soil.

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Politics DA Answers

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A2: Political Capital

Obama is already spending political capital on GITMOJeff Mason and Steve Holland, Staff Writers, September 10, 2013, “Obama limits use of drone strikes, offers steps to close Guantanamo,” Daily News, http://www.delcotimes.com/general-news/20130523/obama-limits-use-of-drone-strikes-offers-steps-to-close-guantanamo, Accessed 9/19/2013Faced with congressional opposition, Obama has been frustrated by his inability to carry out a 2008 campaign pledge to close the prison in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. A hunger strike by 103 of the 166 detainees has put pressure on him to take action. "There is no justification beyond politics for Congress to prevent us from closing a facility that should never have been opened," Obama said. While he cannot close it on his own, he did announce some steps aimed at getting some prisoners out. He lifted a moratorium on detainee transfers to Yemen out of respect for that country's reforming government. He called on Congress to lift restrictions on the transfer of terrorism suspects from Guantanamo and directed the Defense Department to identify a site to hold military tribunals for Guantanamo detainees.

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A2: Cuban American Lobby

The Cuban American lobby does not represent the views of Cuban AmericansThe LAWG Cuba Team, June 28, 2013, Latin America Working Group, “Cuban-American Call to Action: Take Cuba off Terrorist List,” http://www.lawg.org/action-center/78-end-the-travel-ban-on-cuba/1216-cuban-american-call-to-action-take-cuba-off-terrorist-list, Accessed 9/15/2013On June 12, sixty Cuban Americans delivered a letter to Secretary of State Kerry and President Obama denouncing the views of three Cuban-American members of Congress who encouraged Secretary Kerry, in a letter dated April 29th, to keep Cuba on the State Department’s list of state sponsors of terrorism. The dissenting Cuban Americans maintain that the members of Congress wanting to continue punishing Cuba for something it is not, do not represent the majority view of Cuban Americans.

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Public Supports Lifting Embargo

The public strongly supports lifting the embargo on CubaJamison Maeda, Staff Writer for Clare Daly TD, August 27, 2013, “End the American Embargo Against Cuba,”http://www.unitedleftalliance.org/end-the-american-embargo-against-cuba/, Accessed 9/25/2013But, with the exception of a handful of aging Cuban exiles who lost their vast plantations during the Cuban revolution and the Republican politicians they bankroll, over 60% of Americans are in favor of reestablishing ties with Cuba. It is estimated that despite facing thousands of dollars in fines, over 200,000 Americans travel to Cuba illegally each year via Mexico or the Bahamas. And they find that many of the Cold War stories they were taught in school were completely false. Though still struggling financially, partially due to the American embargo, Cubans have religious freedom, almost no violent crime, Marlboro lights, Diet Coke and CNN.

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China DA

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Cuba Links

China just made a new economic agreement with CubaHou Qiang, Editor, September 25, 2013, Xinhua News, “Cuba woos Chinese investment with special development zone,” Accessed 9/25/2013, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2013-09/25/c_132750029.htmCuban Foreign Trade and Investment Minister Rodrigo Malmierca said here on Wednesday that Cuba welcomes Chinese investment in its first special development zone. The zone, due to open in Mariel Bay in November, will grant foreign businesses preferential tax treatment, including an exemption from corporate income tax for 10 years, said Malmierca during a tour designed to promote the zone. "China is our first leg in international promotion, as Cuba and China boast long-term friendship and good cooperation" he said. The minister briefed the Chinese business community on features of the Mariel Special Development Zone and invited interested and competitive Chinese companies to come there. According to Malmierca, development of biological technology, medicine, renewable energy, telecommunication, food processing, tourism and real estate sectors will be given priority under the project.

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Mexico Links – Oil

Mexico is looking to China for investment in oil productionToh Han Shih, Staff Writer, September 11, 2013, “Mexico offers China US$300b in infrastructure deals,” South China Morning Post, http://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/1307863/mexico-banks-china-get-back-feet, Accessed 9/22/2013Mexico is looking to China to boost its economy while offering Chinese companies a share of US$300 billion of infrastructure projects being planned for the country, which could serve as a back door for mainland manufacturers to export their goods to the United States. "Mexico requires large investments in infrastructure, such as oil platforms, trains, ports, bridges and highways. China has premier quality in infrastructure and time-to-market delivery," said Banco Interacciones managing director Fernando Moreno, who is in Beijing seeking mainland investment and building relations with potential Chinese partners. "Mexico has a large border with the US. There is going to be a lot of interest from Chinese companies in putting up factories to supply to the US market. This infrastructure can help.

China will supplpy Mexico with new oil infrastructureToh Han Shih, Staff Writer, September 11, 2013, “Mexico offers China US$300b in infrastructure deals,” South China Morning Post, http://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/1307863/mexico-banks-china-get-back-feet, Accessed 9/22/2013"Our bank is looking for Chinese industrial companies to invest in Mexico to supply the US market." Banco Interacciones is Mexico's largest infrastructure-financing bank. Under the North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement, there are no tariffs on most goods moved between the US and Mexico. Previously, Mexican factories that exported to the US were seen as competitors by Chinese manufacturers. As one example of a Mexican project seeking Chinese investment, Pemex, the state oil monopoly, will require 52 oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico in the next six years. Each platform would cost about US$280 million, Moreno said.

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Mexico Links – Export markets

Mexico is reaching out to China to diversify its US-centered export marketDave Graham, Staff Writer, August 26, 2013, “Mexico moving to grow trade ties with Asia,” Reuters, Accessed 9/23/2013, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/26/us-mexico-asia-trade-idUSBRE97P0V920130826, Asia could become twice as important to Mexico as an export market over the next five years as the country strengthens trade ties with the fast-growing economies of the region, Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo said on Monday. Latin America's biggest exporter is working to diversify its trade to reduce its dependence on the U.S. market, which takes in more than three quarters of Mexico's exports. For years a peripheral market for Mexico, Asia has been growing in importance, and Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto has been at pains to bolster relations with China in particular since he took office at the start of December.

Mexico’s economy is on the brink and kept afloat by exports to AsiaDave Graham, Staff Writer, August 26, 2013, “Mexico moving to grow trade ties with Asia,” Reuters, Accessed 9/23/2013, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/26/us-mexico-asia-trade-idUSBRE97P0V920130826, Mexico's economy is facing its toughest year since 2009 and net trade has been a drag on growth, with imports rising faster than exports in 2013. However, robust demand in the Orient for Mexican goods has helped to take the edge off. Guajardo told Reuters the government was in the midst of "redesigning" ties with Asia and was optimistic the share exports to the region would increase before Peña Nieto's term comes to an end in December 2018.

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Venezuela Oil Links

China just signed 12 new agreements with Venezuela for education and oil productionThe Associated Press, Staff Writer, September 22, 2013, “Venezuela's president in China, signs agreements,” Sacramento Bee, http://www.sacbee.com/2013/09/22/5757819/venezuelas-president-in-china.html, Accessed 9/22/2013China and Venezuela signed several agreements Sunday during a visit by the Venezuelan president that is meant to strengthen economic ties between the South American nation and its leading creditor. President Nicolas Maduro told his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, that the main goal of his trip was to further consolidate and expand the strategic partnership between the two countries that late President Hugo Chavez began with Chinese leaders. Chavez died in March after 14 years in power. The two leaders signed 12 agreements Sunday, including ones related to a finance fund deal, education, and a joint development between Chinese state-owned oil producer Sinopec and Venezuela's national oil company. They also signed a cooperation and exchange agreement between China's space flight administration and Venezuela's science and innovation ministry relating to remote satellites. No details were given on any of the agreements.

Venezuelan oil deals are a way China seeks to counterbalance U.S. influenceZachary Keck, Associate Editor, September 19, 2013, “China to Invest $28 Billion in Venezuelan Oil,” The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/pacific-money/2013/09/19/china-to-invest-28-billion-in-venezuelan-oil/, Accessed 9/21/2013Some initially believed Maduro would seek to improve Venezuela’s ties with the U.S., which had been badly strained during Chávez’s tenure as president. These expectations appear to have been misplaced as the two countries have maintained frosty relations under Maduro’s presidency. The US$28 billion in oil deals seems to cement Maduro’s intent to continue Chávez’s legacy of courting China as a way to counterbalance U.S. influence in the Latin American country. Under Chávez Sino-Venezuelan ties blossomed. According to the Wall Street Journal, China has loaned some US$40 billion in Venezuela in recent years. These loans are often repaid in oil and natural resources. Already, China receives 600,000 barrels of Venezuelan oil every day. Venezuela recently surpassed Iran to become China’s third largest oil supplier.

China just invested $14 billion in Venezuela’s oil industry. This will substantially increase productionZachary Keck, Associate Editor, September 19, 2013, “China to Invest $28 Billion in Venezuelan Oil,” The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/pacific-money/2013/09/19/china-to-invest-28-billion-in-venezuelan-oil/, Accessed 9/21/2013China and Venezuela concluded two large oil investment deals ahead of the Venezuelan President’s visit to China this weekend. Venezuela's Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez announced on his Twitter account earlier this week that China has agreed to invest US$14 billion in an oilfield in Venezuela’s Orinoco Belt. “In a meeting with Sinopec, we agreed to develop the Junin 1 field in the Orinoco Oil Belt,” Ramirez said, referring to China’s state-owned oil company. “Development of the Junin 1 field requires an investment outlay of $14 billion for production of 200,000 barrels per day of oil,” he added.

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China and Venezuela just agreed to a $14 billion oil deal for developmentKejal Vyas, Staff Writer, September 18, 2013, “Venezuela Secures Energy Deals With China,” Wall St. Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323308504579083811178665526.html, Accessed 9/23/2013Venezuela will partner with China National Petroleum Corp. on a $14 billion development project in the country's Orinoco heavy oil belt, one of a handful of investments secured by Venezuelan officials during a trip to China this week in preparation for President Nicolás Maduro's state visit to Beijing on Saturday. Venezuela is looking to fortify relations with its Asian ally, which over the last several years has granted the South American country around $40 billion in loans. In exchange, China receives 600,000 barrels of oil a day and access to Venezuela's vast natural resources, whose development still requires massive investment.

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Internal Link - Taiwan Extension

China courts Latin American countries to gain leverage at the UN on the Taiwan issueChris Barker, University of Bristol August 13, 2013, “What Implications Does Rising Chinese Influence Have for Latin America?,” eInternational Relations, http://www.e-ir.info/2013/08/13/what-implications-does-the-rising-chinese-influence-have-for-latin-america/, Accessed 9/5/2013Another implication of South-South cooperation has been the accentuation of the North-South divide in the region owing to Sino-Taiwanese rivalry. While Taiwan has fostered economic cooperation with Central America for political support in the UN, South-South (American) cooperation has been promoted by the PRC fostering economic development, particularly scientific and technological progress (Hirst 2008). By showing support in this way, China hopes to win the backing of LAC countries on important issues in such forums as the United Nations (UN). An example of this is China and Argentina in their ‘quid pro quo approach’ (Dosch & Goodman 2012:7). More specifically, following Argentina’s abstention from voting on U.S. sponsored resolutions investigating Chinese human rights, the PRC supports Argentina’s position on The Falkland Islands in the UN Committee on Decolonisation.

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China DA Answers

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China DA Answers – Not Zero Sum

Sino-LA relations are not zero sum. Cooperation and competition are rising nowChris Barker, University of Bristol August 13, 2013, “What Implications Does Rising Chinese Influence Have for Latin America?,” eInternational Relations, http://www.e-ir.info/2013/08/13/what-implications-does-the-rising-chinese-influence-have-for-latin-america/, Accessed 9/5/2013Owing to the complexities inherent within the relationship, this essay does not focus on a zero-sum nature of the relationship. This is because the Sino-LAC relationship is not zero-sum in nature. Indeed one finds “there is no simple relationship between the different channels through which China affects Latin American economies and the nature of its impact” (Jenkins 2009: 27). There are both short and long term, as well as direct and indirect, differentiated economic implications for the region in the context of Chinese initiatives. Within this context, it is clear that Sino-LAC relations are operating simultaneously along both increasing cooperation, but also increasingly (economically) competitive pathways. As a result, this essay frames the overall implications for the region along a continuum of increasing challenges. These challenges are longer-term economic challenges owing to the growing asymmetric dimension of the economic exchange. These challenges can represent opportunities for the LAC.

China has no interest in a leading role in Latin America, just influenceChris Barker, University of Bristol August 13, 2013, “What Implications Does Rising Chinese Influence Have for Latin America?,” eInternational Relations, http://www.e-ir.info/2013/08/13/what-implications-does-the-rising-chinese-influence-have-for-latin-america/, Accessed 9/5/2013Similar to Taiwan, as it concerns matters politically in the Sino-PRC relationship, is the PRC’s courtship of fostering cooperation on South-South political matters. A shared experience of colonisation, “common trends of foreign domination, poverty and a struggle of independence underpin South-South cooperation” (Lanxin 2008: 45). This cooperation represents an opportunity for South American countries’ increasing economic and political independence from the U.S., connecting primarily economic, but also political dimensions of Sino-LAC relationships. This has resulted in a convergence of interests between the PRC and South American countries.” In fact, Latin America is a potential partner in China’s on-going quest to establish a just and harmonious world” (Shixue 2008: 35). This convergence revolves around a shared preference for a multipolar, multilateral world that reflects, amongst other things, the changing nature of globalisation (Jilberto & Hogenboom 2010). For example, “effective multilateralism” has resulted in observer and consultation status of the PRC in many bodies including MERCOSUR, CARICOM, and regional banks. The latest development in this area was the creation of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC). The Beijing Review (2011:14) proclaimed: advancement of political, economic, social and cultural integration . . . CELAC is possibly the third largest economic powerhouse in the world. The overall implication of these developments: any superiority of US-backed models of market reform in the region can no longer be taken for granted (Dorsch & Goodman 2012: 4). Despite the opportunity that South-South cooperation provides for South American countries in particular, there are limitations. Notwithstanding several instances of China’s support for developing nations such as in the G-22 WTO Doha round, China’s actual record in supporting the agenda of the developing world has been patchy. Indeed, “China displays more interest in influencing than leading the movements of the South on specific demands” (Hirst 2008: 92). Here, South American countries lose out by owing to China’s hierarchy of international relations, placing developing nations at the bottom.

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China DA Answers – Not Zero Sum

Even if China is trying to displace the U.S. in Latin America, there’s no evidence that this has an impactChris Barker, University of Bristol August 13, 2013, “What Implications Does Rising Chinese Influence Have for Latin America?,” eInternational Relations, http://www.e-ir.info/2013/08/13/what-implications-does-the-rising-chinese-influence-have-for-latin-america/, Accessed 9/5/2013Beijing has also established several “strategic partnerships” in the region (Mexico, Venezuela, Brazil and Argentina). This intensification of relationships appears to confirm a neorealist perspective that Beijing uses trade, investment, and diplomacy in an attempt to offset regional and global dominance of the U.S. (Dosh & Goodman 2012). Indeed, Li (2008: 195) argues that China is taking advantage of a power vacuum in the region. However, despite certain developments such as increasing LAC military personnel trained by the PRC, there is no evidence this is affecting the regions’ strategic relationship

with the U.S. Indeed, the region’s convergence with Washington remains firm on matters in the Security Council (Hirst 2008). In summary, China’s presence in Latin America is innocuous with respect to the regional security agenda and does not represent a threat or deterioration in strategic relations between the LAC and the U.S. However, “PRC does at times act as an extra regional ally in matters of international politics” (Hirst 2008: 95).

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China DA Answers – Causes Deindustrialization

Chinese influence in LA is leading to deindustrialization that will drag down regional economic growthChris Barker, University of Bristol August 13, 2013, “What Implications Does Rising Chinese Influence Have for Latin America?,” eInternational Relations, http://www.e-ir.info/2013/08/13/what-implications-does-the-rising-chinese-influence-have-for-latin-america/, Accessed 9/5/2013However, increasing economic challenges that the LAC region faces are evident beyond short term trade surpluses. Jenkins notes the differentiated impact on countries in the region and also within these countries (Jenkins 2010: 834). This is supported in a later study that elaborates, “LAC exports to China are heavily concentrated in a handful of countries and sectors, leaving the majority of LAC without the opportunity to significantly gain from China as a market for their exports” (Gallagher & Porzecanski 2010: 136). This not only emphasises the differential impact the PRC has had on the LAC, but also that increasing concentration of LAC export structures reflects the regions’ lack of diversification. This had led to fears that the real ‘Dragon in the room’ is the deindustrialisation of Latin America (Gallagher 2011). This process has negative connotations for future growth scenarios for the region (Moreira 2007: 22). For instance, Argentinean soybeans account for the bulk of its exports while exports in Chile are comprised of around 80 percent of its exports. Meanwhile, Brazil soy bean and iron exports dominate, while Peru relies heavily on exports of copper and fishmeal (Jenkins 2012: 1350). Moreover, there is no evidence that these Latin American exports to China are becoming more diversified; indeed the contrary is occurring (Jenkins 2012: 1351). As Moreira states, “[T]he risks of a pattern of specialisation based on natural resources are there for everyone to see… there are success stories, but they seem to be exceptions” (Inter-American Bank 2007: 27). While China has used a range of state backed industrial and trade policies to develop certain stages of its global value chain, “Latin American producers are increasingly specialising in the early, low-value-added stages of the chain” (Jenkins 2010: 823). This is creating a risk of the ‘primatisation’ of export structure to the PRC (Jenkins 2009: 31). The overall implication, then, is: Sino-LAC economic relations are being increasingly conducted in an asymmetric context that much rather resembles a North-South trade model (Jenkins 2012: 1348, Lanxin 2008: 54 and Tokatlian 2008: 61). The result of this emerging asymmetry indicates a possible return of the centre-periphery trade pattern that has long been at the core of scholarly and political discourses in the region since the 1940s (Jenkins & Dussel Peters 2009: 9-10).

China is destroying Latin American manufacturingChris Barker, University of Bristol August 13, 2013, “What Implications Does Rising Chinese Influence Have for Latin America?,” eInternational Relations, http://www.e-ir.info/2013/08/13/what-implications-does-the-rising-chinese-influence-have-for-latin-america/, Accessed 9/5/2013The important point is that for Latin American economies to continue export growth, export diversification and upgrading are essential. However, if these countries attempt this process of recognised key ingredients for sustained growth (Devlin 2008), this will lead to a convergence of the two regions’ export structure, with the PRC the most competitive manufacturer in the world currently (Gallagher 2011). Moreover the current threat to Latin American from Chinese manufacturing is evident: in 2009, 92 percent of all manufacturing exports in LAC were threatened by Chinese manufacturing exports, 37.9 percent of all LAC exports (Gallagher 2011). This is a much more grave assessment than earlier assessments on the impact of China in this area.

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Direct competition from China in manufacturing is such that Chinese imports are now outcompeting Latin American countries in their own markets. The much-espoused case is of Mexico, but also in Brazil. Brazil has experienced upwards of 15 percent in Chinese imports, of amongst others, medical instruments, batteries, and accumulators (Jenkins 2012: 31). Furthermore, the level of penetration was over 10 percent in a number of other sectors including date-processing equipment, radios, and TVs (Jenkins 2012: 31). As a result of this import penetration from China, Brazil amongst other Latin American nations has introduced several anti-dumping measures against cheap Chinese imports.

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China DA Answers – Causes Deindustrialization

Chinese economic leverage hurts the environment and causes spiraling deindustrializationChris Barker, University of Bristol August 13, 2013, “What Implications Does Rising Chinese Influence Have for Latin America?,” eInternational Relations, http://www.e-ir.info/2013/08/13/what-implications-does-the-rising-chinese-influence-have-for-latin-america/, Accessed 9/5/2013There is also a feeling within LAC that gains associated with natural-resource-intensive exports are not widely spread (Lederman, Olarreaga, & Perry 2006). As Gallagher points out, five countries and eight sectors dominate LAC trade to China. Moreover, only four sectors (Copper, Iron, Soybeans and Crude Petroleum) represent 83 percent of overall trade to the PRC (Gallagher 2011). Jenkins indicates the ‘winners’ as the multinationals and the losers as industrialised workers facing pressure from lower wages in China (Jenkins 2010: 836). Furthermore, if South American nations are not proactive, there are negative implications environmentally. Taking the copper industry as an example, if Chile takes no precautions in its extraction, once this non-renewable resource has been exhausted, not much remains for neither trade nor the environment. Increasing Chinese competition in third markets is a well-espoused fear for LAC region, particularly Central American countries. This predominately concerns the manufacturing sector. While this is an indirect effect of rising PRC in Latin America, a more direct effect is Chinese competition in domestic manufacturing markets. Competition in third markets relates to Gallagher’s assertion that Latin America may be in the process of deindustrialisation, and is what Gallagher explicitly refers to as ‘The Dragon in the Room’. This should be viewed as a positive challenge, as Devlin (2008: 111) states: “(China’s) increasingly competitive prowess is, in effect, a wake-up for the region.” Indeed, “a more strategic long-term strategy for innovation and export development is required” (Devlin 2008: 111).Although Chile has set a benchmark for what pro-active government initiatives can achieve in respect to this challenge, with the exception of Brazil, no other country in the LAC region has an R&D percentage expenditure of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over 0.5 percent (Gallagher 2011). Indeed, some countries, particularly in the Caribbean Basin, are already feeling the pinch of Chinese competition in third markets for manufactured goods, and the entire region has experienced domestic pressure in one economic sector or another (Devlin 2008:113). Not surprisingly, countries that share a similar export structure to the PRC have and will continue to suffer the most.

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China DA Answers – Economy /Inequality

Sino-Latin American trade is structurally wrecking Latin American economies and exacerbating social inequalityChris Barker, University of Bristol August 13, 2013, “What Implications Does Rising Chinese Influence Have for Latin America?,” eInternational Relations, http://www.e-ir.info/2013/08/13/what-implications-does-the-rising-chinese-influence-have-for-latin-america/, Accessed 9/5/2013In conclusion, the implications of rising Chinese influence for LAC countries are found within the context of Chinese initiatives. These predominately economic initiatives can be most accurately viewed along a continuum of increasing long-term economic challenges to the region. These include: the primatisation of LAC’s export structure that also affects societal inequalities and environmental degradation, competition in both world and domestic manufacturing markets that has a direct effect on employment and, the ability of Latin America to continue export growth and continue its development. These challenges have provided Latin America with a motivational wake-up call and lie only at the door of LAC themselves. Only Chile’s copper stabilisation fund and emphasis on innovation, and Brazil’s increased negotiation leverage in iron extraction and emphasis on R&D, have taken up this challenge. As a result, the region is becoming increasingly subject to an economic asymmetrical nature. This asymmetry is reflected in the composition of Sino-LAC trade and LAC’s export concentration outlined above. This has culminated in an economic relationship that resembles more North-South, centre-periphery characteristics than South-South. It’s the exact conundrum the region has fought against for the last 100 years within American and European externally imposed economic policies. If LAC governments do not respond to these increasing challenges, the consequences could be grave. Kevin Gallagher argues that the numerous free trade agreements that countries like Chile, Costa Rica and Peru are signing with China could “ship such countries back to the 19th century” for they are neglecting the importance of a diversified economy (Gallagher 2011). LAC countries should ease off free trade agreements that they are making with China and take stock of these implications, whilst deciding whether the current route of development will allow a more diverse economy to develop.

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China DA Answers – Venezuela Answers

China is still involved but support for Venezuela is drying upDavid Smilde, senior fellow at the Washington Office on Latin America and associate professor of sociology at the University of Georgia And Timothy Gill, doctoral candidate in the Department of Sociology at the University of Georgia, September 17, 2013, “Strategic Posture Review: Venezuela,” World Politics Review, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/13224/strategic-posture-review-venezuela, Accessed 9/18/2013Nevertheless, China’s oil investments in Venezuela have been frustrated by Venezuela’s complex partnership terms and lack of infrastructure as well as PDVSA mismanagement. China is in Venezuela for the long haul, as it seeks to ensure future sources of oil beyond the U.S.-Saudi global oil alliance, and Beijing has already invested considerable resources in building refineries and tankers. However, it no longer seems willing to provide Venezuela with large cash loans.

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China DA Answers – Mexico Answers

China has virtually no ties to Mexican oil productionSr Emerging Markets Analyst, Staff Writer, September 5, 2013, “Proposed energy reforms: Implications for investors in Mexico (Part 3),” Market Realist, http://marketrealist.com/2013/09/mexican-energy-reform/, Accessed 9/21/2013The Mexican market is closely linked to the U.S. market, so as the U.S. market continues to recover, Mexico will be boosted as well. The reason for this close relationship is that Mexico’s geographic proximity to the United States made the United States Mexico’s most important trade partner. Mexico’s major exports are from the auto and related industries (think auto supplies), so a strong recovery in the U.S. auto industry usually boosts the Mexican market as well. Interestingly enough, Mexico’s exposure to China is quite limited, as their trade is very limited. This has helped Mexico weather to some degree the weakness in China, though the reduced flows to emerging markets did affect the Mexican market.

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Oil DA

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Cuban Ethanol Links

Increasing non-corn imports reduces dependence on oilJonathan Specht, J.D. Washington University Saint Louis, 2013, “Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States,” http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf, Environmental Law & Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, Accessed 9/19/2013Imported ethanol from non-corn sources may be an increasingly popular means of reducing U.S. fossil fuel dependence for two reasons in particular. First, the transition from corn-based to cellulosic ethanol is difficult. Second, the RFS caps the amount of ethanol from corn that can be blended into U.S. fuel at 15 billion gallons per year by 2022. In coming years the amount of ethanol imported into the United States is likely to increase by a significant amount unless Congress revives the ethanol tariff. If both U.S. ethanol import restrictions and the ethanol blending tax credit were eliminated (as happened at the end of 2011), imports of ethanol into the United States would more than double.

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Mexico Links / Uniqueness

Mexico has capped oil production and prices will remain high in the status quoAjay Makan, Javier Blas, and Jude Webber, Staff Writers, September 18, 2013, “Mexico hedges oil output at highest price on record,” Financial Times, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ec038a60-206b-11e3-9a9a-00144feab7de.html#axzz2fYlsh4zf, Accessed 9/21/2013Mexico has hedged its oil production for the coming year at the highest price on record, in a striking indication of how stubbornly high oil prices continue to allow producing governments to finance growing budgets. Surging output from US shale oilfields and slowing consumption in mature economies are expected to weigh on the price of crude eventually, eating into the revenue available to the world’s largest exporters. But concerns about rising production costs mean that long-term prices have remained high.

Increasing Mexican oil and gas production reduces North American energy dependence quicklyTim Mullaney, USA Today staff, May 15, 2012, “U.S. energy independence is no longer just a pipe dream,” USA Today, http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/story/2012-05-15/1A-COV-ENERGY-INDEPENDENCE/54977254/1, Accessed 9/20/2013Every president since Richard Nixon has called for the U.S. to wean itself from needing oil from unstable or unsavory countries. The nation's new-found energy riches are likely to bring that ambition closer to reality in the next two decades, according to many forecasters. It's no pipe dream. The U.S. is already the world's fastest-growing oil and natural gas producer. Counting the output from Canada and Mexico, North America is "the new Middle East," Citigroup analysts declare in a recent report. The U.S. Energy Information Agency says U.S. oil imports will drop 20% by 2025. Oil giant BP projects the U.S. will get 94% of its energy domestically by 2030, up from 77% now, as oil imports fall by half. Energy billionaire T. Boone Pickens, a major investor in oil and natural-gas companies, said the U.S. can at least end oil imports from Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, about half its total, through new drilling and by shifting diesel-swilling trucks to natural gas. Any other oil needs should be from politically stable allies such as Canada, Pickens said. Most enticing, a team of analysts and economists at Citigroup argues that the U.S., or at least North America, can achieve energy independence by 2020, as more domestic production and doubling down on conservation produce a virtuous cycle. The U.S. can make itself a net exporter of crude oil, refined products and natural gas — says Citigroup energy strategist Seth Kleinman. "The notion of the U.S. getting to zero net imports of oil is obviously a sexy notion, but it's not necessary for it to mean the world will change," he says. "We are seeing a dramatic collapse in U.S. net imports of oil as we speak, to the tune of almost 1 million barrels a day each year over the last four years."

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Saudi Arabia Extension

Saudi and GCC economies are barely staying afloat. Any shock to oil prices collapses Middle East economiesGordon Platt, Staff Writer, September 2013, “GCC: Oil Prices And Regional Stability,” Global Finance, Accessed 9/23/2013, http://www.gfmag.com/archives/178-september-2013/12643-gcc-oil-prices-and-regional-stability.html#axzz2fj71s67rReal GDP growth in Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, will slow to 4% this year from 5.1% in 2012, owing to an expected decline in oil production to support prices in the face of new supply, according to the International Monetary Fund. “Private-sector growth is expected to be strong, but oil production is likely to drop below 2012 levels, while government spending growth may slow,” the IMF noted following a consultation with Saudi Arabia in July. In Kuwait the central bank expects economic growth to slow to 1.9% this year from 6.3% in 2012, also owing to lower production. The pace of public spending in a number of Gulf Cooperation Council countries increased dramatically in the wake of the Arab Spring uprisings in an effort to placate the populace. Despite the expected slowdown in government spending this year, continued strong investment in non-oil industries—such as petrochemicals, fertilizers, steel and aluminum—will support non-oil GDP growth in the near term, economists say. But any shocks to the oil price could have a serious impact.

U.S. production and weakening Chinese demand put Saudi Arabia on the brinkGordon Platt, Staff Writer, September 2013, “GCC: Oil Prices And Regional Stability,” Global Finance, Accessed 9/23/2013, http://www.gfmag.com/archives/178-september-2013/12643-gcc-oil-prices-and-regional-stability.html#axzz2fj71s67rIn addition, Saudi Arabia’s petrochemicals industry is at risk. “The Saudi petrochemicals industry is perhaps more vulnerable than it has been for some time,” Samba’s economists say. There is a clear challenge from US petrochemical plants with access to cheaper natural gas, a crucial raw material for petrochemical production, they explain. Meanwhile, China’s economic growth outlook has weakened, which could affect demand for petrochemicals, they add.

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Oil DA Answers

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Oil DA Answers – Production Uniqueness Answers (U.S.)

US shale oil production is already causing a supply shock now with no impactGordon Platt, Staff Writer, September 2013, “GCC: Oil Prices And Regional Stability,” Global Finance, Accessed 9/23/2013, http://www.gfmag.com/archives/178-september-2013/12643-gcc-oil-prices-and-regional-stability.html#axzz2fj71s67rAs US shale oil and gas production continues to grow, it could have an impact on GCC economies over both the short and long term. The supply shock to global energy markets created by a surge in US oil and gas production is putting a damper on economic growth in the Arab Gulf, as oil-exporting countries of the Middle East have become more reliant on high oil prices to balance profligate fiscal spending. The International Energy Agency says US shale oil will help meet most of the world’s new oil needs in the next five years, and the US could become the world’s largest oil producer as early as 2017, the IEA forecasts.

New US oil production will allow higher exports and less importsConglin Xu, OGJ Senior Editor-Economics, September 20, 2013, “API: US oil production reaches 25-year August high,” Oil & Gas Journal, http://www.ogj.com/articles/2013/09/api-us-oil-production-reaches-25-year-august-high.html, Accessed 9/23/2013US crude oil production reached a 25-year high for August of nearly 7.6 million b/d, according to the American Petroleum Institute’s monthly statistics for August. Total US petroleum deliveries, a measure of demand, slipped 0.7% from August 2012 to 19.1 million b/d last month, recording the highest deliveries for the year and the lowest August level in 4 years, API reported. The number of oil and gas rigs in the US in August, according to Baker Hughes Inc., was 1,781, up from 1,766 last month, API said. “August saw a continuation of trends that have been building for quite some time,” said John Felmy, API chief economist. “The incredible rise in American energy production, helped in part by softening demand, has allowed the US to dramatically increase energy exports and reduce its energy imports.”

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Oil DA Answers – New Production / Price Decline Inevitable

Oil price decline inevitable with multiple sources of new productionGordon Platt, Staff Writer, September 2013, “GCC: Oil Prices And Regional Stability,” Global Finance, Accessed 9/23/2013, http://www.gfmag.com/archives/178-september-2013/12643-gcc-oil-prices-and-regional-stability.html#axzz2fj71s67rOil prices rose to the highest levels in more than a year during July, amid political upheaval in Egypt and a seasonal rise in summer driving in the US and elsewhere, as well as growing demand for air conditioning, particularly in the Middle East and other emerging markets. Nevertheless, the trend for the next three years appears to be toward weaker prices. Capital Economics expects oil prices to drop to about $85 a barrel by the end of 2015, putting more pressure on budgets in the GCC. Substitution of shale gas for oil in transportation could have a long-term impact, Shearing says. In addition, the development of shale fields in Russia and China could add to supply.

Multiple domestic and international factors are driving down oil pricesInvesting.com, Staff Writer, September 20, 2013, “Crude prices fall as Libyan production improves, Fed comments weigh,” http://www.investing.com/ news/commodities-news/crude-prices-fall-as-libyan-production-improves,-fed-comments-weigh-252937, Accessed 9/23/2013Crude oil futures softened on Friday on reports that Libyan production is on the mend, while sentiments that the Federal Reserve still remains on track to begin unwinding stimulus programs pushed down prices as well. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in November traded at USD104.85 a barrel during U.S. trading, down 0.495%. The November contract settled down 1.32% at USD105.86 a barrel on Thursday. The commodity hit a session low of USD104.82 and a high of USD106.11. Reports that Libyan oil production is on the rise after protesters reopened access to facilities sent oil prices dipping on Friday, as did talk Iraqi output is on the mend as well.

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Oil DA Answers – Prices Internal Link Answers

Syria deal proves a dip in oil prices has no big effectOffshore-Technology.com, September 16, 2013, “Oil prices decrease following US-Russia deal over Syria weapons,” http://www.offshore-technology.com/news/news-oil-prices-drop-us-russia-syria-chemical-weapons, Accessed 9/21/2013Oil prices decreased as Syria escaped the threat of imminent military action from the US, following a deal with Russia to remove Damascus's chemical weapons. Brent crude fell by $1.15 to $110.55, its lowest level since 23 August 2013, while US oil dropped by $1.04 to $107.17, reported Reuters. Oil prices have rallied since August, as investors were worried over the possible disruption of oil supplies from the Middle East in the possible event of the US launching an attack on Syria. A deal was signed by US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Saturday to wipe out chemical weapons possessed by Syria, therefore supporting a nine-month UN programme.

The rise in production would have to cause a sustained crash in prices to hurt the Saudi economyGordon Platt, Staff Writer, September 2013, “GCC: Oil Prices And Regional Stability,” Global Finance, Accessed 9/23/2013, http://www.gfmag.com/archives/178-september-2013/12643-gcc-oil-prices-and-regional-stability.html#axzz2fj71s67rNeil Shearing, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics in London, says that although the US shale-oil boom will have an impact on the GCC mainly through the price channel, “oil prices would have to fall a long way and stay low for a long time to cause serious fiscal problems for most of the GCC countries.” Bahrain, Oman and then the UAE are the most vulnerable to a decline in oil prices, Shearing says. Saudi Arabia has strong reserves to count on: more than $694 billion of foreign currency reserves, according to the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency. He adds that the kingdom would have no trouble borrowing in international markets, if necessary.

Oil prices are too uncertain in the near termGordon Platt, Staff Writer, September 2013, “GCC: Oil Prices And Regional Stability,” Global Finance, Accessed 9/23/2013, http://www.gfmag.com/archives/178-september-2013/12643-gcc-oil-prices-and-regional-stability.html#axzz2fj71s67rJames Reeve and Andrew Gilmour, senior economists at Riyadh-based Samba Financial Group, said in a recent report: “The outlook for oil prices is perhaps more uncertain than normal. Worries about conflict in the Middle East are likely to keep markets on edge, but the shale-oil ‘revolution’ in North America seems set to loosen fundamentals in the medium to long term. We see [Brent] prices drifting—albeit remaining high by historical standards—to some $98 a barrel by 2015.”

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Oil DA Answers – Prices Internal Link Answers

Domestic oil production booms aren’t big enough to affect global pricesBryan Walsh, senior editor at TIME, September 4, 2013, “America’s Oil Boom Won’t Make It Energy-Independent From Middle East Madness,” TIME, http://science.time.com/2013/09/05/americas-oil-boom-wont-make-it-energy-independent-from-mideast-madness/, Accessed 9/23/2013The truth is that domestic oil production in the current market has little impact on the price of gas. In 1995 — which happens to be the last year that U.S. oil production exceeded imports until now — America pumped about 6.5 million barrels of oil a day. That’s less than the 7.2 million barrels a day the U.S. produces now. But gas in 1995 cost $2.07 in current dollars — a little more than half of what it costs today. This isn’t to say that the miniboom that American oil producers have experienced over the past few years is meaningless. It has helped reduce U.S. oil imports, which in turn shrinks America’s huge foreign trade deficit. In June the gap between how much petroleum the U.S. imports and exports in dollar terms fell to $17.4 billion, down from a record $42.4 billion five years ago. That means more dollars stay in the U.S. rather than being sent abroad. And the shale-oil boom has been very good to U.S. oil companies and their employees, which is good for the larger economy. The research firm IHS Global Insight estimates in a new report that increased production from unconventional oil and gas has increased disposable income by an average of $1,200 per household, a figure that’s predicted to rise in coming years. But while the oil boom has been a nice boost, it hasn’t quite been a revolution. Since 2007, U.S. oil production has increased by a little more than 2 million barrels , good for a 44% increase. But those additional 2 million barrels represent just 2% of the 90 million barrels a day the world is consuming now . No wonder it’s had little impact on the price at the pump.

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Oil DA Answers - Mexico

New reforms make higher Mexican oil production inevitableSr Emerging Markets Analyst, Staff Writer, September 5, 2013, “Proposed energy reforms: Implications for investors in Mexico (Part 1),” Market Realist, http://marketrealist.com/2013/09/mexican-energy-reform/, Accessed 9/21/2013While still there are several details lacking about the reforms, there are a few points that are very likely to be included. The main change would be allowing the participation of private capital in oil, as currently, Pemex holds the oil monopoly in the country. For this purpose, the reforms will require changes to the Constitution, which is partly why the process has been delayed so much. Another likely outcome is the opening of downstream oil activities—which include refining, transportation, distribution, and other oil-related derivatives. This will reduce Mexico’s dependence on oil derivative imports. However, it’s unlikely that foreign investment will be allowed to participate in the production and exploration. It’s also highly speculated that the reforms will allow private firms to generate and sell electricity, which should lower prices overall. This should bring about significant development in the sector and attract investments. Overall, Mexico’s oil production would increase, as increased investment allows faster development on the sector, though the increase will take time and may not be massive. Nonetheless, the country will enhance the exploitation of its oil reserves and reduce its dependence on imports, making it more competitive and benefiting the local economy.

There is massive investment in Cuban offshore drilling nowThe Havana Times, (Staff Writer), August 16, 2013, “Cuba Invests in Solar, While Still Betting on Oil,” Accessed 9/5/2013, http://www.havanatimes.org/?p=98026One of the greatest hopes of the Cuban executive to carry out a successful reform package is to obtain income from oil drilling in the country’s Special Economic Zone in the Gulf of Mexico. Companies from Russia, Norway, Angola, Vietnam, Spain, India, Malaysia and Venezuela signed contracts for oil exploration blocks in Cuba’s Exclusive Economic Zone. To date several exploration attempts have proven unsuccessful.

Mexican investment reforms will revive the oil industry. It’ll be a game changer for the entire hemispherePatrice Hill, Staff Writer, September 12, 2013, “Mexico could make North America the world leader in oil production,” Washington Times, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/sep/12/mexico-could-make-north-america-the-world-leader-i/?page=all, Accessed 9/21/2013Mexico is poised to join the North American oil revolution as a new government is moving to significantly modify 75-year-old constitutional restrictions against foreign involvement in the oil sector, allowing U.S. firms to go in for the first time and help develop the country’s sizable untapped reserves. Energy analysts are increasingly optimistic that Mexico will make changes it has resisted for decades to revive its foundering oil sector, which is a primary source of growth for the economy and revenue for the government but has been in rapid decline in recent years because of the depletion of Mexico’s conventional oil fields in the Gulf of Mexico. A liberalization of the legal restrictions barring foreign investment proposed by Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto last month promises to boost Mexico’s economy and wealth and to help put North America on the map as a potential new “Persian Gulf” for oil. “This has the potential to be a game-changer,” said Marc Chandler, an analyst at Brown Brothers Harriman. Mexico has reserves of oil estimated by industry analysts at 60 billion to 120 billion

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barrels in the deep-water Gulf, shale and other land deposits, but most of that has gone undeveloped. When combined with Canada’s huge reserves of oil in the Alberta oil sands and large shale oil resources that the U.S. is exploiting through pioneering technologies, the unlocking of Mexico’s oil wealth has the potential to transform the entire region, he said.

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Oil DA Answers – A2: Russia

Russia’s eastward expansion to China would offset any loss. Prefer our evidence because it assumes the recent shale production boom, which makes their argument non-uniqueWood Mackenzie, Staff Writer, September 19, 2013, “WoodMac: Russia's energy trade with China could quadruple by 2025,” Oil & Gas Financial Journal, http://www.ogfj.com/articles/2013/09/woodmac-russias-energy-trade-with-china-could-quadruple-by-2025.html, Accessed 9/23/2013Wood Mackenzie’s report, titled ‘Russia’s pivot east: the growth in energy trade with China’, points to three key drivers behind this wider political alignment which is underway. Ian Thom, Head of Russia Upstream Research comments; “As legacy West Siberian oil production declines, Russia is undergoing a period of renewed interest in exploring and developing the energy resources of its Far East and East Siberia regions. These key provinces are sparsely populated, highly resource rich and adjacent to a large and resource-hungry Chinese population, and their development is a major priority for the Russian government. Exploiting the mineral and hydrocarbon wealth of the Far East and East Siberia allows Russia to diversify markets, maintain energy production levels, develop industry and increase local incomes.”The report says that Russia’s oil sector is leading the way and East Siberia is becoming a major producing region, “The construction and expansion of the Eastern Siberia Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline has been a critical piece of infrastructure,” Thom comments; “In return for guaranteed crude supplies, US$25 billion of Chinese finance underpinned the construction of the second stage of the pipeline. ESPO has opened up East Siberia for large-scale commercial oil production, resulting in a

significant increase in upstream investment. Oil production from East Siberia is expected to exceed 1.2 million barrels a day (b/d) by 2017.” Simultaneously, Russia is being forced to accommodate the new realities of the European gas market . McConnell expands: “As a result of the North American shale gas revolution, Qatari LNG cargoes have been diverted to Europe ,

where gas demand has been effectively stagnant since the Global financial crisis. As a result, Russia has reduced its target price for gas into Europe and is seeking alternative markets for new supply.” “The Russia-China energy relationship is very different to the one that exists between Russia and its traditional market of Europe. The latter operates in an established legal context, features commercial arrangements with a variety of state-owned and private companies across a number countries, and has a track record of many decades. In contrast, there is a very short history of

energy trade between Russia and China,” McConnell adds. McConnell continues; “Now, a wider political realignment is underway, reversing the historical trend of limited engagement between China and Russia. CNPC has acquired a 20 percent stake in Yamal LNG and will purchase at least 3 million tonnes per annum of LNG. Chinese support is a crucial step in building a broad-based financial platform for the project.” While progress has been made with oil trade, and access to upstream assets this year, gas exports from Russia to China have been almost 20 years in negotiation. A Memorandum of Understanding was signed in March 2013 for 38 billion cubic metres (Bcm) of supply from Russia’s East Siberia gas fields, with first delivery scheduled for 2018. Gas developments are on hold until the pipeline agreement and gas sales contract is finalised. China’s rampant demand has led to re-evaluation of the strategic need to access Pacific basins for energy exports. “We forecast China’s total oil imports will overtake those of the United States by 2017, and reach 9.2 million b/d in 2020. China’s gas market is now the third largest globally, with total demand expected to reach over 170 bcm in 2013. Power demand is also growing at a tremendous rate, and trade with China could make Russia the world’s largest electricity exporter by 2030,” says McConnell.

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Oil DA Answers – A2: Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia will maintain standard levels of production through autumn, offsetting small disruptionsUSEIA, September 10, 2013, “Global crude oil supply disruptions and strong demand support high oil prices,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=12891, Accessed 9/23/2013Sustained Saudi output. EIA expects Saudi Arabia to maintain elevated crude oil production of almost 10 million bbl/d into the autumn if high volumes of global production remain disrupted. Seasonally, Saudi Arabian production typically declines at the end of summer, falling in line with its declining domestic consumption, which peaks in the summer. Sustained production provides greater volumes for export, partially offsetting disruptions elsewhere.

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Oil DA Answers – A2: Libyan Production

Libyan oil production is tumbling in post-Gadhafi instabilityJeff Rubin, former Chief Economist and Managing Director of CIBC World Markets, September 4, 2013, “Will Syria Bring an Oil Shock?,” Financial Sense, http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/jeff-rubin/will-syria-bring-an-oil-shock, Accessed 9/23/2013Libya’s oil industry has fared even worse. Much like Iraq, Libya is the product of 20th century border making by foreign powers. It’s fractured by fierce tribal and regional divisions, which preclude the functioning of an effective central government. Prior to the demise of Gadhafi’s reign, which stretched four decades, the country pumped 1.6 million barrels a day. In the ongoing chaos following his ouster in 2011, production has tumbled to less than a third of that amount.

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