Nate CoxGEOG 342

Analysis of Vegetation Regrowth Following the Camp Fire

2018 saw the deadliest and most destructive wildfire in California history, consuming approximately 240 sq. miles,

18,000 structures, and 84 lives within a 17-day period. My goal during this analysis was to see approximately how much

land cover was lost and how much had regrown one year later. Using the technique of unsupervised image classification, I

was able to determine just that. My first step was obtaining the imagery. I decided to use LANDSAT 8 images, due to the

multi-spectral properties, that were taken on 10/07/18 (one-month pre event) and 10/26/19 (one year post event). These

images were downloaded from the USGS Earth Explorer website. Once the images were downloaded, the next step was to

put them into an ArcGIS Pro project.

Paradise, CA

10-07-18

Nate CoxGEOG 342

Paradise, CA

10-26-19

Nate CoxGEOG 342

From there I ran an object-based image classification. This process groups neighboring pixels together based on

similarities, and then uses these objects to classify the image. I used this method over the pixel-based classification since

such precise results were not necessary. The images were classified into four landcover types; forest, shrub, barren, and

water.

Classified Image

10-07-18

Nate CoxGEOG 342

Classified Image

10-26-19

Once the classifed images were created I used the zonal histogram tool to create tables with cell counts of each

landcover type. Producing these cell counts is what we need for comparison.

10-07-18

Nate CoxGEOG 342

10-26-19

Within the study area I observed the following landcover changes. Barren land increases by 5% from 20% to 25%,

Shrub type landcover increased by 12% from 18% to 30%, and forest landcover decreases by 17% from 56% to 39%.

Hydrology landcover remained the same at 6%. These results are indicative of typical regrowth patterns following large

fires. A total recovery would consist of the same mix of grasses, trees, and shrubs. Typically grasses and short shrubs are the

first to grow, followed by small trees. Total recovery may take decades. But the landcover that grows back is dependent on

the region’s climate conditions. Drought resistant shrubs may replace trees that require more water. With the current

changing climate, it is hard to predict if a total recovery is even possible (Ecology Letters).

Sources:

USGS Earth Explorer

https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/

Camille S. Stevens-Rumann, Kerry B. Kemp, Philip E. Higuera, Brian J. Harvey, Monica T. Rother, Daniel C. Donato, Penelope Morgan and Thomas T. Veblen. (2017), Evidence for declining forest resilience to wildfires under climate change, Ecology Letters