Wayne Higgins Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA

October 9, 2008

An Overview of NOAA Climate Prediction Center

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Outline:

CPC Operational Activities

– Alaska Region

Transition Activities (Climate Test Bed)

Challenges

National Climate Service (NCS)

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

CPC MissionCPC Mission

• National temperature and precipitation National temperature and precipitation outlooks, but not monthly / seasonal outlooks, but not monthly / seasonal rankingsrankings

• Focus: weeks, months, seasons, years Focus: weeks, months, seasons, years (i.e. (i.e. short term climateshort term climate))

• Forecasts in collaboration with other Forecasts in collaboration with other NCEP Centers, NOAA line offices, other NCEP Centers, NOAA line offices, other agencies and labs agencies and labs

• Integral to NWS Seamless Suite of Integral to NWS Seamless Suite of ProductsProducts

We deliver climate monitoring, assessment, and prediction products for timescales from weeks to years to the Nation and

the global community for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the economy.

Temperature Outlook

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CPC Operational Activities Outlooks (GPRA Measure - U.S. Seasonal Temperature)

Monitoring Products

Assessment Products

How do we accelerate improvements in the above?

Outreach and Feedback

Partnerships

Applied Research

Transition Activities (R2O; O2R)

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Climate Outlook Products

Focus on week-2 to seasonal-to-interannual

6-10 Day & 8-14 Day Precipitation & Temperature Outlooks

Day 3-14 Hazards Assessments (US, Global Tropics)

Monthly & Seasonal Precipitation & Temperature Outlooks

Seasonal Drought Outlook

Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks (Atlantic and Eastern Pacific)

Note: Note: We recognize that we need to do more than T & P – and in We recognize that we need to do more than T & P – and in particular – more climate-weather type products, more particular – more climate-weather type products, more variables. What are your needs?variables. What are your needs?

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Climate Monitoring Products

– Primary modes of climate variability (ENSO, MJO, NAO, PNA, AO,...)

– Atmospheric Circulation (global troposphere and stratosphere)

– Storm Tracks and Blocking

– Monsoons

– Oceanic Conditions (global and coastal)

– Precipitation and Surface Temperature (global and US)

– Drought (US, North America; NIDIS)

Note: Note: There has been a concerted effort to improve and There has been a concerted effort to improve and expand the CPC monitoring product suite in response expand the CPC monitoring product suite in response to to user community requests.user community requests.

A Collaborative Effort Between the Climate Prediction Center and the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy

Jon Gottschalck1, Sarah Trainor2, Wayne Higgins1, and Tim Eichler3

1 NOAA / NWS / NCEP – Climate Prediction Center2 Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy – University of Alaska, Fairbanks

3 Saint Louis University – Department of Earth and Atmospheric SciencesAreas of Collaboration • Storminess monitoring, assessment, and prediction

• Drought and Fire Mitigation

• Application of hazard assessments

• Coordination and utilization of precipitation datasets

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http://www.uaf.edu/accap/index.htm

Precipitation DatabasesAt CPC, a newly developed global daily gauge-satellite merged precipitation dataset is now available in realtime employing a sophisticated quality control system. ACCAP would like to utilize this state of the art dataset as part of their operations and outreach while CPC hopes to expand the number of stations included in its analysis and obtain additional historical data if possible.

Drought-RelatedAcross interior Alaska, drought and fire issues are extremely important and play a substantial role in decision making by regional planners. CPC and ACCAP plan to work together to improve CPC existing products (Figure 4) via improved coordination, data input, and tool development.

Figure 5: ACCAP produces a monthly map (a) and associated text of weather and climate highlights for public use. (b) Example of the CPC weekly US Hazard Assessment that includes Alaska as part of its product domain.

(a)

Fire-RelatedCPC and ACCAP are initiating work that will support extended range fire forecasters in Alaska. Stakeholders hope to utilize CPC operational monthly and seasonal outlooks as input into fire activity statistical models for forecasts from lead times of 3-6 months. There appears to be strong relationship - that they hope to exploit - between certain meteorological variables and seasonal fire activity.

Figure 6: Official operational CPC monthly outlooks for temperature (a) and precipitation (b). The include Alaska in their product domain and work in this area will downscale these forecasts for application to specific locations.

Figure 7: (a) Total precipitation (mm) from the CPC dataset for February 20, 2008 and (b) an example station distribution map for a typical day across Alaska.

Figure 1: Time series of the storminess index (black line) and contributing terms [pressure tendency (red line), pressure gradient (blue line), and central low pressure difference from climatology (yellow line)] for the storm track in (a).

Figure 4: The US Drought Monitor (a) and US Seasonal Drought Outlook (b) include Alaska as part of their product domain and would benefit from input from stakeholders in the Alaska region to improve not only the inputs to each product but also for improved utilization.

StorminessDuring the past year, work in this area included CPC participation in an Alaska wide teleconference showcasing existing storminess-related products to a wide variety of stakeholders. Feedback from participants has been evaluated and prioritized. Also, ongoing research work continued for the development of a storminess index and the evaluation of the Climate Forecast System (CFS) as a potential extended range forecasting tool.

(b)

Short-Term HazardsMany types of hazardous weather occur across Alaska during all seasons. CPC provides 3-14 day guidance for potential threats as part of its weekly US Hazard Assessment. CPC plans to work with ACCAP to more effectively communicate prospects for hazardous weather (i.e. probabilistic terms).

(a)

(b)

(a)

(b)

The index combines information of storm frequency, intensity, and duration when integrated over time

Greater structure is seen over the example storm’s lifetime (i.e., intensity is greatest early even though the storm central low pressure remains generally constant).

After further refinement and evaluation, the index can be applied to Alaska and used for both realtime and research applications.

Storminess Index

Time

Inde

x (h

Pa)

Current station coverage as part of the CPC analysis is sparse

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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

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Climate Assessment Products Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (monthly, web)

ENSO Diagnostics Discussion (monthly, PDF and WORD)

Weekly ENSO / MJO / Monsoon / Ocean updates (.ppt, PDF, web)

Seasonal Climate Summaries (web)

Special Climate Assessments (extreme events, web)

Annual Climate Assessment (multi-agency; published in the AMS Bulletin)

Hazards Assessments (US, Africa, & Global Tropics) Day 3-14 – WX/CX Connection

Note: Note: These products should connect climate to people’s lives. These products should connect climate to people’s lives. How should we expand and improve the current suite of How should we expand and improve the current suite of

products to do this?products to do this?

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Applied Research Activities

Climate diagnostics and attribution

Prediction tool development/ improvement

Climate monitoring tool development/ improvement

Model diagnostics and evaluation

Atmospheric and oceanic predictability

Weather/ Climate links

Teleconnections

Drought/ floods and other extreme events

CPO and NCEP have partnered to accelerate the transition of research advances into operations (new and improved forecast products and services)

The Role of the Pacific- North American (PNA) Pattern in the 2007 Arctic Sea Ice Decline

L’Heureux, Kumar, Bell, Halpert, and Higgins (2008)

In press, Geophysical Research Letters

July-Aug-Sept 2007 500-hPa geopotential height

Loading Pattern for July-Aug-Sept PNA

JAS 2007 PNA value was 3

standard deviations

Location of the greatest sea ice melt

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Climate Climate Test BedTest Bed

Climate Climate Test BedTest Bed

Advancing Climate Prediction:The Climate Test Bed

Climate Community

Climate Community

Research &Development

Research &Development

NOAA ClimateForecast

Operations

NOAA ClimateForecast

Operations

Mission:Mission: To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services.

Climate Prediction Advances at NCEP

• Climate Forecast System: first dynamic operational coupled climate forecast model, implemented Aug 04

• Climate Test Bed: jointly established by CPO and NCEP in 2005 and focused on accelerating improvements in the Climate Forecast System and related seasonal forecast products

• Increases in the skill of CPC official seasonal outlooks (20% or more; O’Lenic et al. 2008) due in part to CFS and to CTB milestones (e.g. consolidation tool).

((0.5 Month Lead – 4 Year Running Average vs. GPRA Goal) 0.5 Month Lead – 4 Year Running Average vs. GPRA Goal)

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Climate Test Bed is a Community Resource

Infrastructure: – 1/3rd NCEP R&D supercomputer – 12 CPC/EMC contract/federal employees

Competitive grants program – Collaborative research on high profile science activities

CFS/GFS Improvements Multi-model ensembles across time scales Objective climate forecast products (drought / NIDIS)

– Currently 10 funded projects (external PI’s and internal co-I’s)

CTB Seminar Series

Visiting Scientist Program (FY09)

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Challenges for Accelerating Improvements in Climate Prediction

Multi-Model Ensembles – National Strategy

Computer resources for generating hindcasts

– Concept of Operations

Memoranda of Agreement with partners (International and US) for exchanges of operational models & forecast data

Reanalysis– Advance assessment and prediction capabilities

CTB infrastructure– Revitalize climate computing

– Competitive grants program to accelerate R2O

– Model Test Facility (O2R) support – people, data access, helpdesk, training to accelerate R2O

Click to edit Master title style

Toward a National Climate Service

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Toward a National Climate Service

• Public demand for climate information exceeds current capacity

• Sources of information are distributed and usually not coordinated

• Commitment to establish a Climate Service is needed to integrate provision of NOAA’s climate products and services

• NOAA needs to engage other agencies and organizations in defining their roles in a National Climate Service partnership

• Improved capabilities are needed to enable: User and issue focused approach Better monitoring Improve national to local predictions and projections Assessments of impacts and vulnerabilities in support of

adaptation and mitigation

CarbonTracker

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

National Climate Service

NCS Key Working Groups

DAA Oversight Group

• Co-chairs:Paul Doremus and Chet Koblinsky

• NESDIS- Charlie Baker• NWS- Vickie Nadolski• OAR- Craig McLean / Sandy MacDonald• NOS- Bill Corso• NMFS- John Oliver

• Co-chairs:Paul Doremus and Chet Koblinsky

• NESDIS- Charlie Baker• NWS- Vickie Nadolski• OAR- Craig McLean / Sandy MacDonald• NOS- Bill Corso• NMFS- John Oliver

SAB Tiger Teams

• Coordinating Committee Chair:Eric Barron (NCAR)

• NOAA Coordinating Committee Members:

Craig McLeanCharlie Baker

• Tiger Team Chairs:Tom Armstrong (USGS)Joe Friday (AMS)Jack Fellows (UCAR - invited)Bob Corell (Heinz Center)

• NOAA members will be included in each Tiger Team

• Coordinating Committee Chair:Eric Barron (NCAR)

• NOAA Coordinating Committee Members:

Craig McLeanCharlie Baker

• Tiger Team Chairs:Tom Armstrong (USGS)Joe Friday (AMS)Jack Fellows (UCAR - invited)Bob Corell (Heinz Center)

• NOAA members will be included in each Tiger Team

Climate Service Development Team (CSDT)

• Chair: Chet Koblinsky• NESDIS- Tom Karl, Eileen Shea• NWS- Fiona Horsfall, Wayne Higgins,

George Smith, Ahsha Tribble• OAR- Rick Rosen, Roger Pulwarty, Claudia

Nierenberg, Randy Dole, V Ramaswamy, Robin Webb

• NOS- Margaret Davidson• NMFS- Ned Cyr, Steve Murawski

• Chair: Chet Koblinsky• NESDIS- Tom Karl, Eileen Shea• NWS- Fiona Horsfall, Wayne Higgins,

George Smith, Ahsha Tribble• OAR- Rick Rosen, Roger Pulwarty, Claudia

Nierenberg, Randy Dole, V Ramaswamy, Robin Webb

• NOS- Margaret Davidson• NMFS- Ned Cyr, Steve Murawski

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NOAA’s vision is a service that leads to:

An informed society anticipating and responding to climate and its impacts

The mission for a National Climate Service in NOAA is to:

develop and deliver research, information and services to enhance society's ability to understand, anticipate, mitigate, and adapt to climate variability and change

Toward a National Climate Service

* Note: Intent is not to infringe on the mission responsibilities of other agencies but to enhance NOAA’s own climate

services

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Strategic Goals

1. Provide Leadership for a National Climate Services Partnership

2. Build and Sustain Comprehensive Observations and Monitoring Systems

3. Provide State-of-the-Art Research, Modeling, Predictions, and Projections

4. Develop, Deliver, and Communicate Valued Climate Services in Collaboration with Users.

Toward a National Climate Service

Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (JAWF)

• Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin• Briefings & Weather Summaries

• Morning (US) & afternoon (International) Wx summary

• Weekly briefing on global weather and crop conditions

• Daily Agricultural Weather Highlights• Future plans include International JAWF Desk

– World Food Crisis adds a sense of urgency to JAWF activities• USDA – Commerce partnership on JAWF is a centerpiece

of NOAA’s emerging strategy for a National Climate Service

Activities for Africa/AsiaCurrent Activities

• Provide support to WMO Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project and to AMMA

• Work with WMO on improving seasonal to interannual climate forecasts and applications

• Support regional climate outlook forums

• Lead Famine Early Warning System Hazard/ Benefit Assessments: Africa, Central America, Afghanistan

• Indian Ocean tropical cyclone monitoring

• Contribute to USAID Asian Flood Network

• Provide professional development training to African Meteorologists

D JF Prec ip ita tion A n omalies

-3

-2

-1

0

1

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1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

CFS

CFS 2- tier

OBS

CFS DJF S. Africa P Fcsts

Training Coverage in Africa

Future Plans

• Assess global models over Africa

• Climate training for SE Asia

• Enhance outreach capability to ensure best possible use of forecast products and services

Summary

• CPC delivers a large suite of “operational” climate monitoring, assessment and prediction products

• CPC plays a unique and critical role in NOAA climate services

• The mission of CPC is to “ deliver climate monitoring, assessment, and prediction products for timescales from weeks to years to the Nation and the global community for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the economy.”

• CPC will play a central role in NOAA’s emerging strategy for a National Climate Service