Key Points We have enough good science to recognize there is a

strategic problem right in front of us. In other words, there is a light at the end of the tunnel, AND it is a freight train moving at us very very rapidly.

Developed countries must recognize that water problems on another continent are in their Strategic National Interest.

The national security apparatus is the only way most nations have to address any environmental security issue.

I am out of time.

How it all fits together?? Theory of environmental security is that

environmental issues can damage stability causing all kinds of bad things

Evidence – my research on an ES model → Bad governance does not necessarily mean bad

environment but the reverse seems true

Peace and stability is good for all nations – we get that

Developed nations of the world must – find it in their ‘National Interest’ to act HOT OFF THE PRESS!!

US Office of the Director of National Intelligence Global Water Security – Intelligence Community Assessment

2 February 2012

Our Bottom Line: “During the next 10 years, many countries important to the United States will experience water problems—shortages, poor water quality, or floods—that will risk instability and state failure, increase regional tensions, and distract them from working with the United States on important US policy objectives. Between now and 2040, fresh water availability will not keep up with demand absent more effective management of water resources. Water problems will hinder the ability of key countries to produce food and generate energy, posing a risk to global food markets and hobbling economic growth. As a result of demographic and economic development pressures, North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia will face major challenges coping with water problems.”

My Bottom line of the DNI bottom line: Disappointing Kicked the problem down the road 10 years. Noted the solution for the US is providing support to better water resource

management. BUT did not think about – How long does it take to develop a large regional water project – 10 to 20 years? We are already behind in acting to prevent the issues this report predicts. Further, did not address the demographics effectively, and the science was light too.

BUT IT IS A START BECAUSE IT PUTS WATER INTO THE SECURITY CONTEXT

Defense Strategy – First Course National Security Strategy Presidential / PM level

Priorities Set National Interests Conceptual Strategy

National Defense Goals National Security Council, Sec State, Sec Def, etc. Threat Analysis Strategic Planning Resource plans

National Military Defense Strategic Plans Military Military Departments plans

Man Equip Train

• Force Commanders Operations Plans to address threats Theater Engagement Plans Fight Wars

Bottom line – If you want to be heard in the process, you must be good at this game; because, this is where priorities are set and the money is brokered .

Promoting Sustainable Development (NSS2000) • Pollution, Environmental Degradation, and unsustainable population growth, the remediation of which is much more costly than pre-emptive action • Uncontrolled exploitation of natural resources---

The Nile – A Case Study

Atbara R 12 BCM

Blue Nile 75 BCM

White Nile 28 BCM

At Aswan 91 BCM

40 – 80 in/yr

30 in/yr

10 in/yr

0 in/yr

RAINFALL

YEARLY FLOW

20 in/yr

Water Demands and Population in the Nile River Basin

Country

Per capita (M3

Per Person Per

Year)

Population in

2011 (millions)

Projected

Population in 2050

Current Water

Demand

Projected Water

Demand 2050

Burundi 37 8.383 27.149 0.3 BCM 1 BCM

Egypt 1,013 81.121 137.873 82 BCM 140 BCM

Ethiopia 40 82.950 278.283 3.3 BCM 11 BCM

Rwanda 10 10.624 27.506 0.1 BCM 0.3 BCM

South Sudan* 1,879 8 to 15. 30.0 17 BCM 35 BCM

Sudan 1,879 34.000 67.000 40 BCM 40 BCM

Uganda 13 33.425 128.008 0.4 BCM 1.7 BCM

totals 265.503 696.781

143.1 BCM

229 BCM

Source: World Bank. “Africa Development Indicators,” 2004, http://publications.world

bank.org/ (accessed 27 March 2011). Population data and growth rates from CIA Fact Book.

Note: DNI study uses 1,000 M3 / person/ yr as demand factor

Does water have the potential to

destabilize this region? –No, it is already unstable, but it can get worse What are the variables for the regional water security

equation? Population,, water rights, political will, culture, _________, water resource management tools

What can be done: What are the National Interests

Western Nations Egypt South Sudan

Priorities Egypt – critical – Keep their historical rights to full use South Sudan – critical – Get their fair share Western Nations – very mixed –calculate risk

The Politics of the Nile South Sudan’s Military View - “The analysis of this study paints a disturbing picture in the future for

the Nile basin countries regarding their current and future water demands not only the countries selected for this study but the entire sub-region. The water demands are extraordinarily high, at the time that the water supply is declining to the lowest point ever in recorded history.”

Egypt ’s Military View - “There is no doubt that Egypt must implement a new strategy in the Nile Basin. It has become necessary to focus on consolidating and deepening its ties for strategic cooperation between Egypt and the Nile Basin countries in order to secure its historic rights to water and to ensure the future needs for agriculture, urbanization and the daily needs for Egyptians, whose population increases each year.”

Western view of National Interests Egypt a critical element of peace and security for the region Horn of Africa region a vital access point Policies with Israel influence decisions Overall, a complex issue and tough priority

Security Risk Analysis EQ 1: Risk is defined as Probability * Magnitude of the Consequence

Probability is determined by Strategic Threat Analysis – US has just

concluded a water security threat analysis Leverage science for better use and management Support the political decision making process – cannot dictate Risk = High * regional conflict that denies access to resources and requires a military response Must establish the ‘National Interest’ of major powers?? Calculate Risk

(must be a consequence)

Planning Nile Example

International support for the Nile Initiative Joint Cooperative Science – Sudd Study for example Spend money now – buy ahead on security State/Foreign Service support to water rights negotiations

State to State Support USAID Regional organizations UN ???? International legal systems

Military Support Help develop engineering capacity Water security strategy

Conclusions Water as a scarce resource is a regional threat

The regional threat has primary and secondary ‘Vital National Interests” to the rest of the world

Time to act is now because some water resource management projects are big, costly, and slow. Further, starting even the smaller actions now produces mitigation immediately.

Security analysis is the appropriate approach to planning, but all solution require more than military solutions.

Environmental Security Analysis

2007 and 2011 FSI

FSI 2007 and 2011

RNI

%

Fertility

rate

Water

Data

Arable

land

Forest

Data

Crops ES Risk

Sudan (3) 2.9 6.0 F F F F Extreme

Iraq (9) 3.1 5.5 D D F D High

Somalia (1) 2.5 6.3 F F F F Extreme

Zimbabwe (6) 1.5 3.7 F D F- F High

Chad (2) 3.1 6.6 F F F F Extreme

Ivory Coast

(10)

2.3 5.4 F C NA F High

Dem Rep of

the Congo (4)

3.2 7.2 F C C F High

Afghanistan

(7)

2.7 6.9 F F F- F Extreme

Guinea (11) 2.7 6.2 F D D F High

Central Africa

Republic (8)

2.7 5.4 F C C F High

Haiti (5) 2.5 5.7 F F- F- F Extreme

U.S. 0.6 2.0 A B B A Low

France 0.6 1.9 A A A A low

F= Awful

D= Bad

C= Average

B= Good

A= Good and improving

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