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Water quality regulation functions under climate change in South-Western Europe catchments
Brussels, 19 Septembre 2018
Mélanie Raimonet, Roxelane Cakir, Sabine Sauvage, Magali Gerino, Robert Vautard, José Miguel Sánchez-Pérez
Climate change impacts on hydrology in Europe
IPCC AR5 (2014)
Donnelly et al. (2017)Climatic change
+3°C
Climate change impacts on hydrology in Europe
IPCC AR5 (2014)
↘ precipitation (<-0.25 mm/d)
Donnelly et al. (2017)Climatic change
↘ streamflow (<-0.15 mm/d)
Major impacts in the South of Europe :- ↘ water ressource- changes in hydrological regime- ↗ extreme events
+3°C
Water quality
Climate change impacts on biogeochemistry?
o Nutriento Sediment
o Sediment retentiono Nitrate removal
www.marlborough.govt.nz
Ecologicalfunctions
Export to the ocean
Water quality
Climate change impacts on biogeochemistry?
o Nutriento Sediment
o Sediment retentiono Nitrate removal
www.marlborough.govt.nz
Ecologicalfunctions
Export to the ocean
Ecological functions of water quality regulation
result from a group of physical / biological / biogeochemical processes
From Oraison et al. (2011), Peterson et al. (2001)
Ecological functions of water quality regulation
result from a group of physical / biological / biogeochemical processes
From Oraison et al. (2011), Peterson et al. (2001)
IN
OUTStream Solute Workshop (1990)
Net balance IN – OUT
o sediment retentiono nitrate removal
The AGUAMOD project
South-West of Europe
talk Dr. Sánchez-Pérez et al., session I1, Friday @12am
The AGUAMOD project
Environment
Economy
Society
South-West of Europe
talk Dr. Sánchez-Pérez et al., session I1, Friday @12am
The AGUAMOD project
Environment
Economy
Society
South-West of Europe
One objective: to evaluate impacts of global changes on ecological functions of water regulation
talk Dr. Sánchez-Pérez et al., session I1, Friday @12am
SWAT modelling
Calibration/Validation: past talk Ms. Cakir et al. today @2:40pm
• 263 subbasin ~ streames
• 12 834 HRUs
• 633 000 km²
Sampling stations - 19 hydrological- 28 physical-chemical
Human activities: - 44 dams- 44 urban releases
Climate Data
Soils
Land use
Digital Elevation
Model
Climate forcing
Europe(11 km x 11 km)Precip & Temp
1 set of reanalyses MESAN1989-2010
Climate forcing
Europe(11 km x 11 km)Precip & Temp
4 sets of projections BC-CORDEX1951-2100
1 set of reanalyses MESAN1989-2010
GCM (4)
RCM (4)
RCP (1)
Bias-correction (1)
RCP8.5
Climate forcing
Europe(11 km x 11 km)Precip & Temp
4 sets of projections BC-CORDEX1951-2100
1 set of reanalyses MESAN1989-2010
GCM (4)
RCM (4)
RCP (1)
Bias-correction (1)
RCP8.5
Trend = 1990/2059
Reference = 2000/10
Calibration/validation of hydrologywith MESAN reanalyses
2000/10
Garonne Ebro
Guadiana Jucar
Calibration: 2000/05Validation: 2006/10
Calibration/Validation: past talk Ms. Cakir et al. today @2:40pm
Validation of hydrology with climate models (BC-CORDEX)
Guadiana Alqueva 51
Tajo 3940_18
Turia
Duero Adour
2000/10
Trends of hydrological changes
Mann-Kendalltau
1990/2059
Trends of hydrological changes
Mann-Kendalltau
1990/2059
General annual streamflow decrease, more intense in the South
Trends of hydrological changes
Minho
1990/2059An
nual
river
dis
char
ge(m
3 /s)
Trends of hydrological changes
Minho Ebro
1990/2059An
nual
river
dis
char
ge(m
3 /s)
Trends of hydrological changes
Winter
Tau Mann-Kendall
1990/2059
Trends of hydrological changes
Winter
1990/2059
Tau Mann-Kendall
Trends of hydrological changes
FallSummer
Winter Spring
1990/2059
Tau Mann-Kendall
Trends of hydrological changes
FallSummer
Winter Spring
1990/2059
Tau Mann-Kendall
Trends of hydrological changes 1990/2059
Max average decrease in 70 yrs: -185 m3/s -98% summer streamflow
Summer
Tau Mann-Kendall
Trends of hydrological changes 1990/2059
Max average decrease in 70 yrs: -185 m3/s -98% summer streamflow
Summer
Extreme scenario(IPSL RCP 8.5)
Tau Mann-Kendall
Impacts of climate change on ecological functions
Ecological function = group of physical / biological / biogeochemicalprocesses (e.g. sediment retention, nitrate removal)
IN
OUTStream Solute Workshop (1990)
Net balance IN – OUT
Impacts of climate change on ecological functions
Ecological function = group of physical / biological / biogeochemicalprocesses (e.g. sediment retention, nitrate removal)
IN
OUTStream Solute Workshop (1990)
Net balance IN – OUT
Sediment releaseNitrate production+
Impacts of climate change on ecological functions
Sediment retentionNitrate removal
Ecological function = group of physical / biological / biogeochemicalprocesses (e.g. sediment retention, nitrate removal)
IN
OUTStream Solute Workshop (1990)
Net balance IN – OUT
Sediment releaseNitrate production
-+
Impacts of climate change on sediment retention
Net balance: IN - OUTDominance of sedimentretention in rivers of South-Western Europe
2000/10
<0 >0 -+
Impacts of climate change on sediment retention
Net balance: IN - OUT
Trend of net balance
Dominance of ↗ sediment retention
Dominance of sedimentretention in rivers of South-Western Europe
Tau Mann-Kendall
1990/2059
2000/10
<0 >0 -+
Impacts of climate change on nitrate removal
Dominance of nitrate removal in rivers of South-Western Europe, except large downstream rivers
2000/10
<0 >0 -+
Net balance: IN - OUT
Impacts of climate change on nitrate removal
Tau Mann-Kendall
↗ nitrate removal in main rivers↘ nitrate removal in smaller streams
Dominance of nitrate removal in rivers of South-Western Europe, except large downstream rivers
1990/2059
2000/10
<0 >0 -+
Net balance: IN - OUT
Trend of net balance
Explanatory factors Preliminary analysis
Spatial analysis
↗ NO3 removal
↘ NO3 removalnot significant
Explanatory factors Preliminary analysis
↗ NO3 removal
↘ NO3 removalnot significant
a b c
Trend Net balance NO3Spatial analysis
Explanatory factors Preliminary analysis
↗ NO3 removal
↘ NO3 removalnot significant
a b c a a a
a b c
a b b
Trend Net balance NO3 Trend Streamflow
Altitude
%agro-forestry (landuse)
Spatial analysis
Explanatory factors Preliminary analysis
↗ NO3 removal
↘ NO3 removalnot significant
a b c a a a
a b b
a b c
a b b
Trend Net balance NO3
Trend Net balance SED
Trend Streamflow
Altitude
%agro-forestry (landuse)
Spatial analysis
Explanatory factors Preliminary analysis
Hotspots of ‘nitrate removal increase’ :- downstream of large rivers- where %agro-forestry is high - where sediment retention also increases
↗ NO3 removal
↘ NO3 removalnot significant
a b c a a a
a b b
a b c
a b b
Trend Net balance NO3
Trend Net balance SED
Trend Streamflow
Altitude
%agro-forestry (landuse)
Spatial analysis
Conclusions and perspectives
Conclusions
o Effects of climate change in South-Western Europe (1990-2059):
Conclusions and perspectives
Conclusions
o Effects of climate change in South-Western Europe (1990-2059):
Explanatory factors : upstream/downstream
landuse
Conclusions and perspectives
Perspectives
o Investigate multiple factors explaining ecological functions variations
Conclusions
o Effects of climate change in South-Western Europe (1990-2059):
Explanatory factors : upstream/downstream
landuse
Conclusions and perspectives
Perspectives
o Investigate multiple factors explaining ecological functions variations
o Include more climate projections and combine climate scenarios
with changes in direct human pressures (e.g. population, landuse)
Conclusions
o Effects of climate change in South-Western Europe (1990-2059):
Explanatory factors : upstream/downstream
landuse
Conclusions and perspectives
Perspectives
o Investigate multiple factors explaining ecological functions variations
o Include more climate projections and combine climate scenarios
with changes in direct human pressures (e.g. population, landuse)
o Quantify impacts on export to the ocean
Conclusions
o Effects of climate change in South-Western Europe (1990-2059):
Explanatory factors : upstream/downstream
landuse
Thank you for your attention.
