Upload
others
View
5
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Water Management National Application
Lawrence Friedl & Jared EntinNASA Headquarters
NASA Land-Cover and Land-Use Change Science Team Meeting
October 10-12, 2006
Extending the societal and economic benefits of Earth science research, information, and technology …
National Space Policy
National Aeronautics and Space Act of 1958 (as amended)Section 102. The preservation of the role of the United States as a leader in aeronautical
and space science and technology and in the application thereof …The most effective utilization of the scientific and engineering resources of the United States, with close cooperation among all interested agencies of the United States in order to avoid unnecessary duplication of effort, facilities, and equipment.
Section 203. The [NASA] Administration shall … (3) provide for the widest practicable and appropriate dissemination of information concerning its activities and the results thereof.
National Space Policy (1996) NASA, in coordination with other departments and agencies as appropriate, will focus its
research and development efforts in (parts of longer list): - Earth observation to better understand global change and the effect of
natural and human influences on the environment; - Space technologies and applications to develop new technologies in
support of U.S. Government needs and our economic competitiveness.
Items from 2006 NASA Strategic Plan
http://science.hq.nasa.gov/strategy/index.html
“NASA’s programs in Earth science also are central to three important Presidential initiatives: the Climate Change Research Initiative, Global Earth Observation, and the Oceans Action Plan.”
“NASA’s Applied Sciences program will continue the Agency’s eEfforts in benchmarking the assimilation of NASA research results into policy and management decision-support tools that are vital for the Nation’s environment, economy, safety, and security.”
Earth Science Division:
Applied Sciences Program
NASA Research to Societal Benefits
NASA Earth Science program produces “research results”, such as:
• Scientific Observatories, measurements, data dets• Research Models• Advanced Sensor and Space System Technology• Data Archives and Interoperability Technology• High Performance Computing and Networking Systems• Knowledge products• Increased Capacity
The Earth Science program is extended through the Applied Sciences Program…
• …to accelerate the use of these “research results” to improve future operational systems…
• …by partnering with operational organizations to benchmark usefulimprovements in their decision support systems for societal benefit.
Integrating Knowledge, Capacity and Systems into Solutions
Value andBenefits to citizens
and societyPartnership Area
Predictions/ Forecasts
High-Performance Computing, Communication, and Visualization
Standards and Interoperability
Decision Support Tools
AssessmentsDecision Support SystemsScenario Tools
Policy Decisions
Management Decisions
ImpactsOutcomesOutputsInputs
Data
Earth Observatories
Planetary Models
SatelliteAirborne In-Situ
LandOceans Atmosphere Solar
NASA and Research Partners Partners with Decision-Support Tools
Applied Sciences Program Approach to Integrated System Solutions
Observations
Decision Support Tools/Systems
Generally, decision support systems are interactive, computer-involved systems that provide organizations with methods to retrieve and summarize information, analyze alternatives, and evaluate scenarios to gain insight on critical factors, sensitivities, risks, and consequences of potential decisions.
- Analysis activities- Actions & Management decisions
Types of decision support systems and tools include:- Early warning systems- Planning tools - Forecasting- Assessments- Decision boards- Expert Systems- Alternatives analysis- Visualization tools- Impact analysis & response- Resource allocation
Decision support systems allow the systematic evaluation and analysis of the relative value of various inputs to the decisions.
Ecological Forecasting
AgriculturalEfficiency
Air Quality
Invasive Species
Aviation
Energy Management
CarbonManagement
WaterManagementHomeland
Security
Disaster Management
Coastal Management
Public Health
Applications of National Priority
Program Activities
Project Solicitations
Directed Projects
“Rapid Prototyping” Projects
Congressionally-directed Projects
Crosscutting Activities- Interoperability activities- Human capital development- Analysis and database of Earth science research
----------------------
Primary Products are “Benchmark Reports”
Current and Future Solicitations
REASoN CAN (Awards 2003) Runs FY04-FY09
Decisions CAN (Awards 6/05) Runs FY05-FY08
ROSES 2005 (Awards 3/06) Runs FY06-FY09
ROSES 2006 No solicitation
ROSES 2007 (Awards 10/07) Runs FY08-FY10
ROSES 2008 (Awards 10/08) Runs FY09-FY11
ROSES 2009 (Awards 10/09) Runs FY10-FY12
ROSES 2010 (Awards 10/10) Runs FY11-FY13
. . .
Earth Science Division:
Applied Sciences Program
Water Management National Application
Water Management Program Structure
Water Management Themes
• Irrigation & Water Delivery• Flow / Flood Forecast• Drought• Water Quality
- BASINS Water Quality - RiverWare Reservoir Management - AWARDS ET Toolbox Water Supply &
Demand Systems- NOAA NWS River Forecasting Systems - National Integrated Drought Information System & US Drought Monitor DSS- Gridded Surface/Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis
Tenets of the Water Management Program:
• Develop and nurture partnerships
• Identify and assess partners’ water management responsibilities & decision-support systems; evaluate capacity of NASA Earth science results to enhance systems
• Validate, verify and benchmark application of NASA products with the partners’ DSTs
• With partners, assess the value of Earth system science results & support adoption into operational use
• Communicate results and partners’achievements to appropriate water management communities and stakeholders
Water Management Program Structure
Water Management Themes
• Irrigation & Water Delivery• Flow / Flood Forecast• Drought• Water Quality
- BASINS Water Quality - RiverWare Reservoir Management - AWARDS ET Toolbox Water Supply &
Demand Systems- NOAA NWS River Forecasting Systems - National Integrated Drought Information System & US Drought Monitor DSS- Gridded Surface/Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis
Progress
Benchmark NOAA NCEP Eta. NCEP actively using NASA LIS and MODIS research products with plans to make operational.
FY07 Plan to assess value of Earth science data in EPA in EPA Non-point Source Water Quality Project.
FY07 Plan to assess value of Earth science data in Reclamation’s RiverWare and AWARDS ET Toolbox.
Air Force Weather Agency successfully implemented NASA Land Information System to replace AGRMET providing global soil moisture and temperature analysis.
Water Management Program Review in June 2006- Seek more active involvement at Water resource managers meetings and conferences (e.g, AWRA, NIDIS, AMS, etc.)
Water Management Program Workshop June 13-14, 2006 - College Park, MD
Workshop Objectives• Review NASA Water Management Program activities and identify opportunities for consideration• Networking between Water Management-funded investigators
Water Working Group (Working Group Charter Developed and Approved)1) Jim Carleton - EPA 2) Don Frevert - US Bureau of Reclamation 3) Thomas Graziano – NOAA NWS/OHD 4) Brian Parsons - American Society of Civil Engineers 5) Dale Straw - Colorado Div. of Water Resources 6) Mike Thomas - Florida Environment Protection 7) Kathleen White – Army Corp of Engineers
Recommendations & Major Action Action Items Taken (Status)• Shorter and more concise Water Management Program Plan with functional themes - Revisit setting of priorities in terms of vision for the next 5-years. - Indicate what we are doing and the vision driving it.• Join and participate in the Interagency (led by USGS) ACWI-SOH• Participate in prioritized meetings and groups ASCE 2007, NIDIS, & Western Governors’ Association • Specific recommendations included:1) Prioritize water quality in program (FY07 and beyond)2) Include thermal band in Landsat Data Continuity Mission 3) Coordinate Project Reporting. Include Quarterly Updates.
Water Management – Current/Future Directions
Theme Current Future
• Irrigation & Water Climate forecasts (W. US) & Enhanced forecasts (esp. Eastern US)
Delivery snowmelt run-off, reservoirs
Regional ET- Aggett Int’l Activities (Africa, S. America w/ IGWCO)
Regional ET - Hendrickx
AWARDS / RiverWare
• Floods & Flow NOAA/NWS River Forecast Damage assessment (w/ Disaster Man.)
USGS Flash Flood (NEWS) New Missions (GPM, NPP VIIRS)
• Droughts USDM & NIDIS Soil Moisture
Climate prediction (link w/NEWS proj.)
• Water Quality EPA BASINS WQ in Receiving Waters
WQ in bays – Chesapeake Bay
• Program Mngt. Water Man. Working Group App Link to NASA SMD, National & Int’l Work
Workshops, Investigator Meetings Integrated Watershed Management
Major Accomplishments
Six watersheds with varying topography and land
use chosen and calibrated
LDAS and LIS data sets developed for simulation
Evaluation report completed
Major Milestones & Activities
Evaluation report completed
Runs with default parameters completed for four
watersheds
LDAS data used as input to two watersheds
Watershed sub-divided to accept gridded LDAS and LIS data
Project goal: Assess the potential for LDAS and LIS products to improve performance of the EPA BASINS Nonpoint Source Pollution model used in source water protection, and watershed management to establish Total Maximum Daily Loads of pollutants in a river.
Project goal: Assess the potential for LDAS and LIS products to improve performance of the EPA BASINS Nonpoint Source Pollution model used in source water protection, and watershed management to establish Total Maximum Daily Loads of pollutants in a river.
EPA BASINSEPA BASINS
Action Items and Issues
Complete LIS data sets with stage IV precip.
Finish default runs to establish baseline conditions
Run BASINS with NASA data and data products
Write Benchmark report
Risks and Mitigation
Question about use of calibrated parameters – are they reasonable?
Missing input data for default runs
BASINS watershed delineation program does not match the location of stream gauging station
Earth System Models
Land Surface Models:
MOSAIC, VIC
Noah, CLM
Data Assimilation Products
NLDAS, LIS
Watershed Hydrology:
HSPF
Earth System Models
Land Surface Models:
MOSAIC, VIC
Noah, CLM
Data Assimilation Products
NLDAS, LIS
Watershed Hydrology:
HSPF
Value & Benefitsto Society
Quantitative and qualitative benefits from improved
decisions
Improved Water Quality
Identification of Nonpoint
Sources of Pollution
Drinking Water Protection
Improved Recreation
Watershed studies
Developing Total Maximum
Daily Loads
Watershed Characterization
Reports
Value & Benefitsto Society
Quantitative and qualitative benefits from improved
decisions
Improved Water Quality
Identification of Nonpoint
Sources of Pollution
Drinking Water Protection
Improved Recreation
Watershed studies
Developing Total Maximum
Daily Loads
Watershed Characterization
Reports
Observations, Parameters & Products
Earth Observations Surface Temperature: Terra, Aqua,
GOES, Landsat
Precipitation: Aqua, TRMM,
Snow Cover: Terra, Aqua
Snow Quantity: Aqua
Ground Water: GRACE
Land Cover - Vegetation: Terra, Aqua, Landsat
Surface Radiation: GOES, Terra,
Aqua, Aster
Topography: SRTM
Earth Observations Surface Temperature: Terra, Aqua,
GOES, Landsat
Precipitation: Aqua, TRMM,
Snow Cover: Terra, Aqua
Snow Quantity: Aqua
Ground Water: GRACE
Land Cover - Vegetation: Terra, Aqua, Landsat
Surface Radiation: GOES, Terra,
Aqua, Aster
Topography: SRTM
Decision Support Systems, Assessments,
Management ActionsBASINS - HSPF
AnalysesPoint and Nonpoint Sources
of PollutionTotal Maximum Daily LoadsConcentrations of Water
Quality VariablesStorm Runoff Volume and
PeakBaseflow (Ground Water)
Decisions / ActionsImplement Best management
Practices to Control RunoffEnforcement of Water
Quality StandardsTest Various Management
Options
Decision Support Systems, Assessments,
Management ActionsBASINS - HSPF
AnalysesPoint and Nonpoint Sources
of PollutionTotal Maximum Daily LoadsConcentrations of Water
Quality VariablesStorm Runoff Volume and
PeakBaseflow (Ground Water)
Decisions / ActionsImplement Best management
Practices to Control RunoffEnforcement of Water
Quality StandardsTest Various Management
Options
Water Management: NASA-EPA Non-Point Source Water Quality (BASINS)
Predictions, Dataand Data Products
Information products
Rainfall rates and spatialDistribution
Snow Cover & DepthSoil MoistureEvapotranspirationLand Cover/Land UseDigital Elevation DataVegetation Indices
Predictions, Dataand Data Products
Information products
Rainfall rates and spatialDistribution
Snow Cover & DepthSoil MoistureEvapotranspirationLand Cover/Land UseDigital Elevation DataVegetation Indices
Toll/Engman
BASINS-HSPF: Precipitation & Evapotranspiration for Flow
• Rain Gauges (Default method) not Representative of Precipitation Events
• Satellite/Doppler Spatial Data Compliments Gauge Data
= BASINS defaultrain gauges
= NLDAS Stage IIprecipitation
Chesapeake Bay Watershed
STATISTICS 2001 2002 2003
111.03 72.00 201.99
92.02 64.75 233.59
Modeled Flow Estimations for NE Anacostia Basin
NATIONAL vs. USGS
NLDAS 1/8th Degree vs. USGS
Correlation Coefficient
RMS Error
Model Fit Efficiency (NS)
Correlation Coefficient
RMS Error
Model Fit Efficiency (NS)
0.63 0.80 0.83
0.78 0.84 0.77
0.33 0.62 0.69
0.54 0.70 0.58
NASA-EPA Study to Test NASA Products for Nonpoint Source Water Qualit
Daily Rainfall Comparison (6/1/03-8/31/03)
y
Major Accomplishments Major Milestones & Activities
Project goal: Use MODIS-derived products with modeling systems, like SEBAL-METRIC and the Land Information System (LIS), to produce relevant land surface, energy and moisture flux information, including evapotranspiration output, which can provide Reclamation additional data for the AWARDS ET Toolbox to help improve water consumption estimates.
Project goal: Use MODIS-derived products with modeling systems, like SEBAL-METRIC and the Land Information System (LIS), to produce relevant land surface, energy and moisture flux information, including evapotranspiration output, which can provide Reclamation additional data for the AWARDS ET Toolbox to help improve water consumption estimates.
ReclamationReclamation’’s AWARDS ET Toolboxs AWARDS ET Toolbox
Action Items and IssuesRisks and Mitigation
•Toolbox domain in NeSTAGE II/IV precipitation datasets into LIS•with in-situ eddy covariance flux measurements•C
Set up LIS LSMs for the AWARDS ET w Mexico; implemented
Validating the ET Toolbox and LIS LSMs
Presented preliminary results at the NOAA PPA PI’s meeting in Tucson, AZ
• R. Allen (U of Idaho) has calibrated entire year of SEBAL-METRIC with MODIS data and is able to generate crop coefficients and monthly ET fields for Reclamation• The AWARDS ET Toolbox has now been validated for certain vegetation types in New Mexico, and will be further validated soon.
The main LSMs in LIS are showing an
parian vegetated corridor along the Rio
Sensitivity case studies are being run with derstand what is the
ation, especially in er months.
• Issue 1: Local in-situ meteorological forcing datasets in New Mexico have different data coverages in time.• Action Item: Statistical evaluation is underway to generate longer term record of well validated meteorological datasets for model-algorithm comparisons
•underestimation in ET and its components for the riGrande •the LSMs to better uncause for this underestimthe summ
Major Accomplishments Major Milestones & Activities
Project goal: Use MODIS-derived products with the modeling system, the Land Information System (LIS), to produce relevant land surface, energy and moisture flux information, including snowpack fields, which can provide Reclamation additional data for its RiverWare DSS to help improve water supply estimates.
Project goal: Use MODIS-derived products with the modeling system, the Land Information System (LIS), to produce relevant land surface, energy and moisture flux information, including snowpack fields, which can provide Reclamation additional data for its RiverWare DSS to help improve water supply estimates.
ReclamationReclamation’’s RiverWares RiverWare
Action Items and IssuesRisks and Mitigation
• Set up LIS LSMs for the Columbia-Yakima RiverWare domain in Washington state; implemented 1km elevation adjustment for LDAS forcing fields.• Validating the LIS LSM and MODIS snow cover against SNOTEL and Daily COOP station data• Participation in NASA Water Management
Meeting in College Park, MD, June 2006
• New Task Plan with Reclamation underway for updating validation and benchmarking activities focused on improving inputs to RiverWare.
• Issue 1: Improvement needed to model forcing and parameters for high resolution runs with LIS models• Action item: Accurate registration of the parameter fields and MODIS products to be done for region and for the 1km scale• Action item: New correction made to forcing fields at 1km
• Major delay of funding from NASAcaused delay for work with Reclamation
• Retirement of original Reclamation staff workers has slowed progress as well
Reclamation RiverWare and AWARDS ET Toolbox DSTs
• Improved water supply estimates and predictions
• Improve ability to monitor and predict flood events
• Improve ET estimates for riparian and agricultural areas for irrigators
• Help water resource managers make more informed decisions to help meet hydrologic and ESA needs
• Use of soil moisture estimates can improve monitoring effects of drought conditions
• Allow users to model any river basin, manage data input and output efficiently enough for near real-time operations
• Integrates reservoir systems, including flood control, water supply and quality, and hydro-electric power-dam operations
RiverWareGeneral river basin modeling environment for operations
and planning
Snowpack Characteristics
• Runoff/streamflow
• ET Estimates
• Soil Moisture
• Energy Fluxes
•Meteorological Data
• Assimilation Techiques for use with remote sensing data in LSMs
• Research and operations involve multi-spatio-temporal scales
AWARDS (AgriculturalWAter ResourcesDecision Support system)
• ET Toolbox – Estimate high resolution daily rainfall and water depletion through evapotranspiration (crop, riparian, open water)
• Used as input into RiverWare
• LSMs: Mosaic, Noah, VIC, Catchment, CLM2
• Atmospheric Models/Forecasts: NCEP Eta, FSL RUC, MM5, CSU RAMS, NASA GEOS (FVDAS)
• River Routing/Streamflow Modeling: MMS, CASC2D, DHVSM, TOPMODEL, Vflo™
Science Models
Value and Benefits
• Snow cover and water equivalent: MODIS, AMSR-e, SSMI, SMMR
• Soil Moisture/Water Storage: AMSR-e, TRMM TMI, GRACE, SMOS
• Radiation/Energy Budget:GOES, MODIS, CERES, ERBE
• Land Use/Cover: MODIS, ASTER, Landsat
• River discharge height (large basins): TOPEX/POSEIDON, ERS-1 & 2, ENVISAT
• Land Surface/Elevation:SRTM
Monitoring and Measurements
Information Products, Predictions,
Visualizations, and Computing
Dat
a
Arsenault
D. Boyle/DRI
RiverWare: Using NASA Products in Reclamation Decision Support Tools
Aqua Terra
(NOAA)
(BOR)
(NASA)
(NASA)
Regulating Reservoirs
Major Accomplishments Major Milestones & Activities
Project goal: Assimilate hydrologic and ecologic observations from NASA Earth satellite sensors, including AMSR-E, QuikSCAT, and MODIS, into a national drought monitoring system, specifically the United States Drought Monitor (USDM), an existing national decision support tool used for drought monitoring and drought early warning.
Project goal: Assimilate hydrologic and ecologic observations from NASA Earth satellite sensors, including AMSR-E, QuikSCAT, and MODIS, into a national drought monitoring system, specifically the United States Drought Monitor (USDM), an existing national decision support tool used for drought monitoring and drought early warning.
National Drought Information SystemNational Drought Information System
Action Items and IssuesRisks and Mitigation
• NASA funds received at JPL and put on account in June 2006
• Participation in NASA Water Management Meeting
• Participation in NOAA Drought Challenge Workshop
• Modifying Land Surface Water Processor for newly reprocessed QuikSCAT data
• Project started at JPL in June 2006
• Focus on processing subcontracts from JPL to USGS, NDMC, and NOAA
• Issue 1: Additional costs due to subcontract overhead at JPL to process and send subcontracts to co-investigators
• Issue 2: Additional work for Principal Investigator at JPL on subcontract processing, monitoring, and management
• Action items: JPL works subcontracts in Year 1; NASA to send funds directly to co-investigators in Year 2 and Year 3.
• Major delay and cut of funding from NASAcausing delay and de-scoping of work (< reports, < drought types, < AMSR-E work)
• NASA cannot send subcontracts to USGS, NDMC, and NOAA for Year 1
• JPL to send subcontracts to co-investigatorsfor NASA in Year 1
Integrated System Solution: National Drought Information System
Earth System ModelsSatellite Algorithms
AMSR-E algorithms (JPL)- Soil moisture- Vegetation water content
QuikSCAT algorithms (JPL)- Precipitation water change on land surface
- Precipitation frequency
MODIS algorithms- Vegetation indices (USGS)- Lake/reservoir area (DFO)
Earth System ModelsSatellite Algorithms
AMSR-E algorithms (JPL)- Soil moisture- Vegetation water content
QuikSCAT algorithms (JPL)- Precipitation water change on land surface
- Precipitation frequency
MODIS algorithms- Vegetation indices (USGS)- Lake/reservoir area (DFO)
Value & Benefitsto Society
Quantitative and qualitative benefits from improved
decisions
• Wider dissemination of drought information
• Improved understanding of drought effects at sub-county scale
• Quicker response for State Drought Task Forces and State Governors
• Increased spatial precision in drought emergency designations
• Better informed state and local decision making leading to more effectiveuse of available water and drought relief program resources
Value & Benefitsto Society
Quantitative and qualitative benefits from improved
decisions
• Wider dissemination of drought information
• Improved understanding of drought effects at sub-county scale
• Quicker response for State Drought Task Forces and State Governors
• Increased spatial precision in drought emergency designations
• Better informed state and local decision making leading to more effectiveuse of available water and drought relief program resources
Predictions/Forecasts
Observations, Parameters & Products
Earth Observations
NASA Satellite Data:- AMSR-E Radiometer- QuikSCATScatterometer- MODIS Spectroradiometer
Surface Data:- Weather Station networks - Soil moisture : SCAN
Network, SNOTEL Network- Long-term stations- Surface radars
Earth Observations
NASA Satellite Data:- AMSR-E Radiometer- QuikSCATScatterometer- MODIS Spectroradiometer
Surface Data:- Weather Station networks - Soil moisture : SCAN
Network, SNOTEL Network- Long-term stations- Surface radars
Decision Support Systems, Assessments,
Management Actions
National Integrated Drought Information
System
US Drought MonitorWeekly map and web portal
Analyses and ForecastEarly Drought DetectionDrought Spatial ExtentDrought State/Drought SeverityDrought duration
Decisions / ActionsDrought Plans ActivatedUrban Water RestrictionsDrought Assistance ProgramsAgricultural Choices for Water Conservation
Decision Support Systems, Assessments,
Management Actions
National Integrated Drought Information
System
US Drought MonitorWeekly map and web portal
Analyses and ForecastEarly Drought DetectionDrought Spatial ExtentDrought State/Drought SeverityDrought duration
Decisions / ActionsDrought Plans ActivatedUrban Water RestrictionsDrought Assistance ProgramsAgricultural Choices for Water Conservation
NASA Water Management Project: National Drought Monitoring System
Information products
Water Monitoring- Soil moisture change- Precipitation frequency- Lake/reservoir change
Vegetation Monitoring- Vegetation Indices- Season start- Season length
Drought Indices- Palmer Drought index- Standardized Precipitation Index
- Stream flow precentile- Soil moisture percentile- Drought indicator blend
Information products
Water Monitoring- Soil moisture change- Precipitation frequency- Lake/reservoir change
Vegetation Monitoring- Vegetation Indices- Season start- Season length
Drought Indices- Palmer Drought index- Standardized Precipitation Index
- Stream flow precentile- Soil moisture percentile- Drought indicator blend
Nghiem/Verdin
Earth System Models
Decision Support Tool:-NOAA NCEP Eta weather model
Supporting Systems:Data Assimilation System:-NASA LIS
Current Land Surface Model:-Noah LSM
Future Land Surface Models:-Mosaic, Catchment/Unified LSMs
Value & Benefitsto Society
Quantitative and qualitative benefits from improved
decisions
-Public has improved ability to plan daily activities due to improved weather forecasts out to 84 hours
-Public safety is improved through better knowledge of upcoming weather conditions
-Power supply reliability increased through adjustments made by power companies
Observations, Parameters & Products
Earth Observations Current:-MODIS snow cover assimilation
-NASA/NOAA CMAP (CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation)
-GOES Solar Radiation
-SNOTEL, Ameriflux, ARM/CART, OK Mesonet, SCAN in-situ networks (land surface conditions)
Potential Future:-AMSR (soil moisture)
-SRTM (topography)
-TRMM and GPM (precipitation)
Decision Support Systems, Assessments,
Management ActionsNLDASE
Output and Analyses
-NOAA NCEP 12km Eta model DST 84-hour weather forecasts validated over standard NCEP verification regions with NCEP FVS.
-Verification statistics produced for surface and upper air forecasts of temperature, humidity, wind, and precipitation.
Decisions / Actions
-Formulation of weather forecasts issued to public
-Issuing of severe weather watches
-Changes to short term power management
-Changes to short term water management
Water Management: NOAA NCEP Weather Predictions Through NLDAS/LIS
Predictions, Dataand Data Products
Improved Weather Forecasts:-2m Temperature-2m Humidity
Improved Initial Conditions: -Snow Cover/Depth
-Soil Moisture
-Soil Temperature
-Canopy Water Content
Improved Forcing:-Solar Radiation
-Precipitation
Cosgrove
AFWA-NASA Land Information System (LIS)Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) – Leveraged Project• LIS Replaces AFWA’s AGRMET (Agriculture-Meteorology), Global Soil
Moisture and Temperature System• Department of Defense Decision Support Systems Including:
- Army mobility software and the Target Acquisition Weapons Software (TAWS)
- Night Vision Goggle Operational Weather Software (NOWS)
LIS Soil Moisture (1 km) AGRMET Soil Moisture
29-August-2005 at 1800 UTC Covering Afghanistan and Portions of Pakistan
•Improved precipitation, upper air, and surface weather forecasts
NOAA Eta DST
Initial Land SurfaceConditions for EtaWeather Model
NOAA Eta DST
NO
AA
Eta
DST
NO
AA
Eta DST
Noah LSM
EtaAtmospheric
Model
Multiple 84-Hour Eta Forecasts
DataAssimilation
DataProcessing
Forcing and Boundary Data
Noah LSM
NASA LIS
NASA LIS
NA
SA L
IS
NASA MODIS Snow Data
Multi-Year LIS Simulation
NA
SA LIS
Model Output
Obs
+
NASA-NOAA/NCEP Project: Land Information SystemCurrently Used (Research to Operations) in Global Forecast & Climate Forecast Systems
INPUTS & OUTPUTS IMPACTSOUTPUTS & OUTCOMES
NASA & Partner Research DST Partnership Opportunity Value & Benefits
NASA/GSFC Land Information System
Models: CLM, VIC, Noah, Mosaic, SSiB, HySSiB, CLSM, SAC-SMA, SNOW-17
Methods: Numerical integration, Data assimilation & validation
States: Surface temperature, Snow cover & depth, Soil temperature & moisture
Fluxes: Evaporation, Transpiration, Precipitation, Runoff
Weather Models & Tools
Models: GMAO, NCEP, NCAR, ECMWF, AGRMET, SNODAS
States: Cloud cover, Winds,Water Vapor, Temperature
Fluxes: Radiation, Precipitation
Observation Products & Platforms
Topography: USGS, SRTM, GPSVegetation: AVHRR, MODISWeather: GOES, NPOESSPrecipitation: TRMM, CMORPH, CMAP, PERSIANN, NEXRAD, NWS & cooperative gauges
Snow Cover: MODIS, SNOTEL
NOAA National Weather Service (NWS)River Forecast System (RFS)
Component Models: SAC-SMASNOW-17
Methods:Multi-sensor precipitation estimationNumerical integrationData assimilation & validation
Evaluation Metrics:Flood stageFlood event spatial/temporal accuracyFlood warning skill and false-alarmsFlash flood warning lead time
Critical Processes:Snowmelt Runoff conversionRainfall Runoff conversionRunoff routingStream & river routing
Critical Needs for Event Forecasting:Antecedent & evolving soil moistureAntecedent & evolving snow states
NOAA/NWS Operational Mandate
River discharge & stage prediction
NOAA/NWS Operational Products
Flood watches & warningsFlash flood prediction & warningDisaster response
Additional & Potential DST Benefits
Model & DST validationNWS RFC forecaster efficiencyPreparation for future datasets
models
states
NASA-NOAA RIVER FORECAST SYSTEM STUDY USING NASA PRODUCTS - ISS
Restrepo
NASA-NOAA River Forecast Project OverviewNOAA/OHD (Restrepo), NASA/MSFC (Limaye), NASA/GSFC (Peters-Lidard)
MODISCloud + SnowCoverAMSR-e SoilMoisture
NASA/GSFC’sLand InformationSystem (Water
Availability)
NWSRFSStreamflow
Potential EvaporationObserved/Forecast
Earth System Models
Land Surface Models:VIC: (1) Land Surface Model(2) Data Assimilation Target(3) Watershed Hydrology
Coupled L-A-O Models:(1) NSIPP/GMAO
Earth System Models
Land Surface Models:VIC: (1) Land Surface Model(2) Data Assimilation Target(3) Watershed Hydrology
Coupled L-A-O Models:(1) NSIPP/GMAO
Value & Benefitsto Society
Quantitative and qualitative benefits from improved
decisions
Improved characterizations of: (a) current hydrologic conditions
(b) evolving water year outlook
Greater efficiency and reduced uncertainty in water allocation decisions
Improved communication of uncertainties in decisionmaking
Reduced conflict over water by stakeholders
Increased confidence in federal & state agency decision-making and policy
Value & Benefitsto Society
Quantitative and qualitative benefits from improved
decisions
Improved characterizations of: (a) current hydrologic conditions
(b) evolving water year outlook
Greater efficiency and reduced uncertainty in water allocation decisions
Improved communication of uncertainties in decisionmaking
Reduced conflict over water by stakeholders
Increased confidence in federal & state agency decision-making and policy
Predictions/Forecasts
Observations, Parameters & Products
Earth Observations
Surface Temperature: Co-Op, MODIS, GMAO hindcasts/forecasts
Precipitation: Co-op, GMAO hindcasts/forecasts
Snow Cover: MODIS
Snow Quantity: NRCS Snotel, CADWR Snow Pillow
Surface Radiation/ET/Temp: MODIS
Earth Observations
Surface Temperature: Co-Op, MODIS, GMAO hindcasts/forecasts
Precipitation: Co-op, GMAO hindcasts/forecasts
Snow Cover: MODIS
Snow Quantity: NRCS Snotel, CADWR Snow Pillow
Surface Radiation/ET/Temp: MODIS
Decision Support Systems, Assessments,
Management ActionsAnalyses
Two tracks, in parallel for research / operations:
real-time (current) nowcast/forecast evaluationRetrospective nowcast/forecast evaluationAssessment of skill contributed by ES Models & Observations relative to operational baseline.Decision Support Tools
VIC-OMS-WHFS ComboIn house BOR reservoir project model (Klamath)CADWR/SWP Delta Coordinated Operations model (at Joint Operations Center)
Decisions / ActionsWater Allocations for myriad uses, WY Type declarationsWater Banking (Klamath)Risk Communication
Decision Support Systems, Assessments,
Management ActionsAnalyses
Two tracks, in parallel for research / operations:
real-time (current) nowcast/forecast evaluationRetrospective nowcast/forecast evaluationAssessment of skill contributed by ES Models & Observations relative to operational baseline.Decision Support Tools
VIC-OMS-WHFS ComboIn house BOR reservoir project model (Klamath)CADWR/SWP Delta Coordinated Operations model (at Joint Operations Center)
Decisions / ActionsWater Allocations for myriad uses, WY Type declarationsWater Banking (Klamath)Risk Communication
Water Management: Water Supply Forecasting (U. Washington)
Information products
Seasonal Precipitation / Temperature Ensemble Forecasts
Streamflow ForecastsMonthly VolumesSummer RunoffUncertainties
Spatial Nowcasts & Forecasts:
Snow CoverSnow Water EquivalentSoil MoistureRunoffEvapotranspirationReservoir EvaporationCrop Water Demand
Information products
Seasonal Precipitation / Temperature Ensemble Forecasts
Streamflow ForecastsMonthly VolumesSummer RunoffUncertainties
Spatial Nowcasts & Forecasts:
Snow CoverSnow Water EquivalentSoil MoistureRunoffEvapotranspirationReservoir EvaporationCrop Water Demand
Lettenmaier
University of Washington Forecast Systemhttp://www.hydro.washington.edu
At UW, started testing hydrologic uses of real-time climate forecasts in 2000, for East Coast
Started producing water supply forecasts in 2001
Started testing snow assimilation techniques in 2003
Launched SW Monitor in 2005
NASA Water MgmtWestern US Seasonal Forecast (2006-2008)
U. Washington Seasonal Forecast System: Spatial Products
SWEPrecip Temp Soil MoistureRunoff
Apr-06
May-06
Jun-06
Enhancing Water Management DSS with Spatio-temporal Mapping of Actual ET
Aggett
Integration of NASA Regional ET products into AWARDS/ET Toolbox and GSSHA DSTs
Hendrickx
(R. Allen, University of Idaho)(R. Allen, University of Idaho)
Current and Future Solicitations
REASoN CAN (Awards 2003) Runs FY04-FY09
Decisions CAN (Awards 6/05) Runs FY05-FY08
ROSES 2005 (Awards 3/06) Runs FY06-FY09
ROSES 2006 No solicitation planned
ROSES 2007 (Awards 10/07) Runs FY08-FY10
ROSES 2008 (Awards 10/08) Runs FY09-FY11
ROSES 2009 (Awards 10/09) Runs FY10-FY12
ROSES 2010 (Awards 10/10) Runs FY11-FY13
. . .
NASA ResearchSpacecraft –Launches in 2006and beyond
Contact information:
Lawrence FriedlApplied Sciences ProgramNASA Headquarters202-358-1599LFriedl @ nasa.gov