Water Cycle Aspects of Water Cycle Aspects of NEESPINEESPI

Alexander Shiklomanov, Charles Alexander Shiklomanov, Charles VVöörröösmartysmarty, , Richard Lammers, Michael RawlinsRichard Lammers, Michael Rawlins

Water Systems Analysis Group Water Systems Analysis Group

University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire

NASA Land-Cover and Land Use Change Science Team MeetingUMUC , October 10-12, 2006

OUTLINE:

● North Eurasian Earth Science Partnership Initiative NEESPI

● Some Scientific Water Aspects in NEESPI region

● NEESPI Status, Integration efforts

● Summary

Former Soviet Union, Northern China, Mongolia,Fennoscandia, Eastern Europe and the coastal zone of these countries.

NEESPI STUDY REGION

Former Soviet Union, Northern China, Mongolia,Fennoscandia, Eastern Europe and the coastal zone of these countries.

NEESPI STUDY REGION

WHY NORTHERN EURASIA?

Former Soviet Union, Northern China, Mongolia,Fennoscandia, Eastern Europe and the coastal zone of these countries.

WHY NORTHERN EURASIA ?

•Vast region, eleven time zones and an area of about 28,600,000 km2•Diverse region, from semi-desert and deserts to tundra•About 70% of boreal forest and 2/3 of Earth’s permafrost

Unique features that need to be better understand

Hansen et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 103, 2006

North Eurasia is experiencing an unprecedented rate of change in modern times:

•temperature increases•timing of rainfall and snowmelt•freeze/thaw of lakes and rivers•intensity of seasonal storm activity•melting of glaciers•thawing of permafrost•reduction of snowcover•dewatering of lakes, wetlands

Region critical to Earth System• planetary heat balance • trace gases• freshwater fluxes to ocean

Additional supporting items:• Transition economy region• Relatively data and scientific resources rich region

WHY NORTHERN EURASIA?

Hansen et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 103, 2006

North Eurasia is experiencing an unprecedented rate of change in modern times:

•temperature increases•timing of rainfall and snowmelt•freeze/thaw of lakes and rivers•intensity of seasonal storm activity•melting of glaciers•thawing of permafrost•reduction of snowcover•dewatering of lakes, wetlands

Region critical to Earth System• planetary heat balance • trace gases• freshwater fluxes to ocean

Additional supporting items:• Transition economy region• Relatively data and scientific resources rich region

WHY NORTHERN EURASIA?

MAJOR SCIENTIFIC TOPICS

• Terrestrial ecosystem dynamics (fresh water systems)

• Biogeochemical cycles (wetlands, permafrost)

• Surface energy and water cycles

• Land use interactions: societal-ecosystem linkages (water use)

• Ecosystems and climate interactions

• Topics of special interest Cold land region processesCoastal zone processesAtmospheric aerosols and pollution (aridization, salinization)

The hydrological cycle links every major component of the NEESPIsystem and central to the analysis of: Global change, Natural variability, Human vulnerability www.NEESPI.org

Some Water Issues in NEESPI region

NEESPI Scientific Topics:Terrestrial ecosystem dynamicsBiogeochemical cyclesSurface energy and water cyclesLand use interactionsEcosystems and climate interactionsTopics of special interest

Cold land region processesCoastal zone processesAtmospheric aerosols

“Change-detection” figure (color merge of 1974 Landsat and 1998 RESURS) illustrating disappearing lakes. Disappeared lakes appear in red.

•Examining temporal variability of ~10,000 West Siberian lakes and ponds•Comparing archived Landsatdata from early 1970’s w/ contemporary RESURS and MODIS data

Disappearing of lakes in Western Siberia

Courtesy Laurence Smith, UCLAWhy did the lakes disappear?

SAR-based Open Water Classification for Ob River Region

ERS-1ERS-2

Coherence

JERS-1McDonald, Podest, et al.

Blue = open water. Green = other

Open Water Classification

Synthetic Aperature Radar (SAR) image

1989 2003

ARAL SEADISAPPEARANCELINKED TOHUMAN-INDUCED CHANGES TO UPLAND HYDROLOGY

QUANTIFICATION & ATTRIBUTION STUDIES: Water Use/Engineering, Land use, Climate change

Syr Darya

Amu Darya

Lake level changes in Central AsiaLake level changes in Central Asia

-500

50100150200250

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

Δ L, cm Issik Kul, Kukunor, Balkhash, Caspian Δ L, cm Lobnor, Aral

1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981

Lobnor

Issik KulKuku Nor Balkhash

CaspianAral

-5001991

Except the Caspian Sea that receives most of its runoff from theExcept the Caspian Sea that receives most of its runoff from the north, lake north, lake levels are decreasing despite no substantial changes in precipitlevels are decreasing despite no substantial changes in precipitationation

Climate variability? Water withdrawal? Snow line retreat? Climate variability? Water withdrawal? Snow line retreat? DeglaciationDeglaciation? All together?? All together?

Global Reservoir and Lake Elevation DatabaseNear-Real Time Monitoring of Lake and Reservoir Surface Elevations

from TOPEX/POSEIDON and Jason-1 Altimetry. Charon Birketthttp://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/global_reservoir/

Currently near-real time monitoring of 16 lakes and reservoirs across Northern Eurasia

Lakes and Reservoirs Altimetry

Changes in the hydrological cycle over the continenteffect on the fresh water transport to the Arctic Ocean, and may influence on ocean thermohaline circulation

(updated from Peterson et al. 2002)(updated from Peterson et al. 2002)Combined Annual Discharge 6 Largest Eurasian Arctic Rivers --- 8% increase over period of record• Aggregate Trend Detectable for Arctic

-Temporal character complex-Geography of change complex

• Linked to NAO and global T rise• 18-70% Increase in River Q to 2100

Ob Yenisey LenaPechoraSev. Dvina

Changes in trends over 1936-1999 in mm

Kolyma

Change in Evapotranspiration (ET)

Change in Precipitation (P)

Runoff changes have complex spatial distribution

Runoff (R)

Ob Yenisey LenaPechoraSev. Dvina

Kolyma

Data source: R-ArcticNet, 57 gauges over 1936-1999. Selected gauges have at least 60 annual discharge values

Direction and especially rate of changein precipitation are not consistent with runoff

Precipitation cannot explain runoff change - especially in the north

Ob Yenisey LenaPechoraSev. Dvina

Kolyma

Change in Evapotranspiration (ET)

Change in Precipitation (P)

Runoff changes have complex spatial distribution

Runoff (R)

Precipitation (P)

Ob Yenisey LenaPechoraSev. Dvina

Kolyma

Changes in trends over 1936-1999 in mm

Direction and especially rate of changein precipitation are not consistent with runoff

Precipitation cannot explain runoff change - especially in the north

ET change is minor

Negative discrepancies coincide with permafrost regions…

Ob Yenisey LenaPechoraSev. Dvina

Kolyma

Change in Evapotranspiration (ET)

Change in Precipitation (P)

Runoff changes have complex spatial distribution

Runoff (R)

Precipitation (P)

Ob Yenisey LenaPechoraSev. Dvina

Kolyma

Evapotranspiration (E)

Discrepancies P-R-E

Changes in trends over 1936-1999 in mm

Acceleration + Deceleration

1) How might the changing network configuration affect interpolated (gridded) fields?

2) Could any biases help explain the discharge increase?

1937 1972

1937 1972

Total Precipitation for 1972 from Yearly Station Network

Comparison of SWE from model simulations and remote sensing products

Pan-Arctic Spring Thaw Trend (SSM/I, 1988-2001)

Timing and trend in the timing of spring thaw derived from SSM/I have elucidated the thaw correspondence with regional anomalies in annual NPP derived from MODIS and AVHRR. Mean annual variability in springtime thaw for Northern Eurasia (above) is on the order of ±7 days, with corresponding impacts to annual productivity of approximately 1% per day.

Spring Thaw Monitored with Microwave Remote Sensing

McDonald, Kimball, et al., 2004

Advance in Thaw Day for Northern Eurasia (SSM/I, 1988-2001)

Trend: Total Significant Significant % Increasing 25 1 4 Decreasing 79 11 14

1960-2001

Evidence of earlier snowmelt across North Eurasia

Change in dates of maximum spring daily discharge

> 10 5 to 10 3 to 5 1 to 3 1 to -1-1 to -3-3 to -5-5 to -10< -10

Changes in Date ofMaximum Discharge

(Days)

Significant changes, p< 0.05

1930–1990 net change: -0.27 m

1956–1990 net change: -0.34 m

-0.50

-0.25

0

0.25

0.50

Max

imum

Ann

ual D

epth

Dep

artu

re (m

)

1930 1936 1942 1948 1954 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990

• Thickness of seasonally frozen ground has decreased in the former Soviet Union in the past decades based on data from 211 stations

• Soil temperature at 40 cm depth has increased about 0.9 to 1.0°C from 1930-1990 in the former Soviet Union

Figures courtesy Tingjun Zhang

Changes in Freeze-Thaw Cycle and Permafrost Dynamics and Their Hydrological Implications over the Russian Arctic Drainage Basin

PIs: Tingjun Zhang and Roger G. BarryUniversity of Colorado at Boulder

The GIS multi-layered DataBase model for Spatially Distributed Permafrost and Active Layer Dynamics modeling in the Northern Eurasia.

GIPL Model

Courtesy Vladimir Romanovsky, UAF

Projected changes in permafrost extent

(a) Akshiirak glacier area changes between 1943 and 2003. Petrova Glacier terminus positions since 1869 (A), Davidova Glacier terminus positions since 1932 (B) and in 1977 (aerial photographs) before its surface elevation and terminus advanced in 1978 (b).(From Aizen et al, 2006)

Changes in Tien Shan Glaciers (example of deglaciation)

Integration of water-related studies is necessary for NEESPI

Current NEESPI research activity:

Currently: 52 funded NEESPI projects

NASA funded NEESPI projects by solicitation:

LCLUC - 12THP - 4NEWS - 7 Carbon Cycle - 9Other NASA – 3Total NASA – 35

NOAA – 3NSF – 2

Russian, European, Japanese Agencies – 12

Water - directly related projects - approximately 18 projects

- Disciplinary research has studied many individual elements of the NEESPI water cycle

- These processes are linked and inter-dependent

- Major shortcoming of current science is the lack of integrative, inter-disciplinary synthesis

NEESPI Focus Research CentersNEESPI Focus Research Centers

NEESPI Focus Research NEESPI Focus Research CenterCenter for Water System Studiesfor Water System StudiesVenue:Venue: Water Systems Analysis GroupWater Systems Analysis Group,, University of New Hampshire, Durham, New University of New Hampshire, Durham, New Hampshire, USAHampshire, USA

Objectives:Objectives: conduct, promote, and facilitate research aimed to improve underconduct, promote, and facilitate research aimed to improve understanding and standing and modeling of the water cycle and water management in the Earth Symodeling of the water cycle and water management in the Earth System focusing on Northern stem focusing on Northern EurasiaEurasia

Links to International Projects:Links to International Projects: GWSP, CLIC, GEWEX, GTNGWSP, CLIC, GEWEX, GTN--H, ACIA, IPYH, ACIA, IPYLeaders:Leaders: Vorosmarty, Lammers, Shiklomanov, Rawlins, Douglas, XiaoVorosmarty, Lammers, Shiklomanov, Rawlins, Douglas, XiaoCurrent Science foci: Current Science foci:

Water resources and water budgetsWater resources and water budgetsWater management Water management Variability and change of hydrological cycleVariability and change of hydrological cycleInteractions between Humans and hydrologyInteractions between Humans and hydrologyMonitoring of the water cycleMonitoring of the water cycleRemote sensing for hydrological researchRemote sensing for hydrological research

Funded and pending proposals to NSF, NASA and NOAA Funded and pending proposals to NSF, NASA and NOAA ………………………………......Other relevant activitiesOther relevant activities: :

The Focus Research Center is currently serving as the base instiThe Focus Research Center is currently serving as the base institution for the NSF Arctic tution for the NSF Arctic Fresh Water Initiative (CHAMP), Fresh Water Initiative (CHAMP), ArcticRIMSArcticRIMS, R, R--ArcticNetArcticNet, , IPY IPY ArcticHydraArcticHydra. .

Summary

• Water is the key to understand effects of global change natural variabilityhuman vulnerability

in NEESPI Region

• We are poised to integrate water related science activitiesin NEESPI

(many pieces pointing at the same picture)

• Focus center is the vehicle to do this

Thank you

Water Cycle Aspects of NEESPILake level changes in Central AsiaNEESPI Focus Research Centers