Water and Climate Change in

Central Asia

Filippo Menga

Ph.D. Candidate - University of Cagliari

14th European Seminar on Geography of Water Cagliari, 28 June 2011

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An overview of the region

“Who rules the hearthland (which included Central Asia) commands the World-Island (Eurasian continent). Who rules the World-Island commands the world”.

Sir Halford John Mackinder

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The breakup of USSR in 1991 marked the birth of 5 newly independent states in Central Asia:

� Kazakhstan� Kyrgyzstan� Tajikistan� Turkmenistan� Uzbekistan

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Main characteristics of the new states in

1991

� None of them really wanted or sought independence� Authoritarian regimes (except in Kyrgyzstan)� Weak and non-organized public administrations� Ethnic rivalries in and between countries� Frequent border problems (especially in the

Ferghana Valley)� Competing rather than complementary economies

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Distribution of water resources

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The Aral Sea BasinThe Basin covers a vast area (nearly 1.8 million km2 with a population of around 50 million) that includes the territory of the five Central Asianrepublics plus Afghanistan and Iran. It is formed by two great Asian rivers:

� The Amu-Darya , The most important river in the basin, which originates among the glaciers and snowfields of the Pamir mountains of Tagikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan (average annual flow: 78 km3 per year)Countries crossed: Tajikistan , Afghanistan , Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan

� The Syr-DaryaWhich flows from the Tyan Shan mountains, located to the north of the Pamirs in Kyrgyzstan (average annual flow: 37 km3 per year)Countries crossed: Kyrgyzstan , Uzbekistan , Tajikistan and Kazakhstan

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Upstream and Downstream

countries

� 80% of the water flows from upstream rivers inKyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which occupy only 20% of the territory of the basin

� Most of it is used for irrigation in the downstreamareas of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, where over 83% of the irrigated land of the region isconcentrated

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Distribution of water resources

Average water flow, km3 per year (source: The Euras ian Development Bank, 2008)

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� Upstream countries, that have scarce resources of Oil & Gas and that are by far the poorest of the region, are mostly interested in exploiting rivers for electricity production

� Oil & Gas rich downstream countries are hugely dependent on water resources for intensive irrigation

Incompatible interests

Vegetation period(spring-summer)

Non-vegetation period(fall-winter )

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Therefore…

During the non-vegetation period (fall-winter):� Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan release large volumes of water downstream

when they are not needed to produce hydro-electric power (especially from Toktogul reservoir), causing flooding and water logging of large areas of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

During the vegetation period (spring-summer):� Downstream countries experience droughts in summer with severe

consequences for agriculture and other related sectors such as food,light industry, etc.

Agriculture’s contribution to GDP, %,(source: The E urasian Development Bank, 2008)

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Impact of Climate Change

Changes in climate over the 20th Century show:� An increase in mean annual air temperature of 1-2°C (IPCC,

2008)� Runoff has increased in rivers feeding Lake Balkhash, as a

result of degradation of mountain glaciers� The glaciers of Tajikistan have decreased by 20-30% on

average; in Afghanistan the decrease is as much as 50-70%

� On a whole, during the period 1957-1980 the glaciers in the Aral Sea Basin lost 20% of their ice cover

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Future Scenarios (2050)

� An increase of extreme weather events such as high intensity precipitations and prolonged droughts

� An increase in annual air temperature of 1-7°C compared to the 1960-1990 average

� The glaciated area will shrink by 20% and ice reserves will decrease by 25%

� The long term effect on the Tajikistan’s rivers’ runoff is expected to decrease by 5-15%

� The agriculture sector will be facing changed hydrologi cal regimes , with probably more runoff in the winter months and drier summer periods

� The soil texture and moisture will be altered and crop yields will be more difficult to sustain

� Food production will show a 30% decrease in crop yields by the end of 21st century

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Possible solutions

� Increase the storage capacity to cope with the inter-annual variations as well as the predicted increase of floods and droughts

� Early warning systems to mitigate the effects of mudflows or floods � Modernize the irrigation system and increase the effectiveness of

water in agriculture� Reach an international agreement on water use in Central Asia that

looks into:� how to deal with changes in the common resource� how conflict can be prevented by revisiting agreements that may

become irrelevant due to climatic changes

Thank you!

“Instead of being at the head of people, be at the head of water”

(Эл баши болгуча – суу баши бол,

Kyrgyz proverb)