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Performance | Top 20 Policy Themes Overbought & Oversold | Top 20 Policy Themes Weekly Highlights
Policy Theme Change 1 Week QTD Policy Theme Current
Drug Rebates ↑ 8.4% 9.2% Drug Rebates OB
IMO 2020 ↓ -0.1% 28.6% IMO 2020 OB
Infrastructure ↑ 4.1% 2.8% Infrastructure OB
Sports Betting ↑ 0.4% 7.7% Sports Betting N
Trade - NAFTA ↑ 3.1% 1.3% Trade - NAFTA N
Deregulation (SIFIs) ↑ 1.4% -0.5% Deregulation (SIFIs) N
Opioid Crisis ↑ 10.3% 5.9% Opioid Crisis N
Trade - China & I.P. Theft ↑ 0.5% 2.3% Trade - China & I.P. Theft N 2019 Calendar
5G Telecom ↑ 2.0% 1.3% 5G Telecom N Aug 25-27: G-7 Summit in France
Home Health Reimbursement ↑ 3.2% 3.6% Home Health Reimbursement N Late Aug/Early Sept: Decision on $11bn of E.U. Tariffs
Local Media ↑ 3.0% -0.8% Local Media N Sept 17-18: FOMC Meeting
Capital Markets ↑ 0.2% 1.0% Capital Markets N
Energy Infrastructure ↓ -0.1% -1.4% Energy Infrastructure N
Data Regulation ↑ 0.1% -1.1% Data Regulation N
E-Cigarette Ban ↑ 1.9% 0.4% E-Cigarette Ban N
Defense Spending ↓ -1.5% -3.1% Defense Spending N
Student Loans & Servicing ↑ 0.6% -4.5% Student Loans & Servicing N
Cannabis Legalization ↑ 3.0% -9.4% Cannabis Legalization OS
Education ↓ -3.4% -5.0% Education OS
Space Force ↓ -4.8% -7.7% Space Force OS
U.S. Market Summary | 1 Week U.S. Market Sentiment | Last 12 Months Factor Quartiles | U.S. Market Performance
Index Change % | bps Current 1 Wk Ago
S&P Large Cap 500 ↑ 0.5% 2,986 2,970
S&P Mid Cap 400 ↑ 1.1% 1,937 1,917
S&P Small Cap 600 ↑ 1.6% 950 936
Forward P/E Ratios
S&P Large Cap 500 ↑ 0.8% 16.6x 16.5x
S&P Mid Cap 400 ↑ 1.4% 15.8x 15.6x
S&P Small Cap 600 ↑ 2.1% 15.9x 15.5x
Credit Spreads
10Y vs 2Y U.S. Treasuries ↑ 3 bps 18 bps 15 bps
HY vs IG Corp. Bond ↓ -2 bps 323 bps 325 bps
FX | Commodities
U.S. Dollar Index ↓ -1.0% 97 98
Commodities Index ↓ -0.2% 79 79
Institutional Ownership
High to Low
% International Revenue2
High to Low
1.24%
1.54%Market Cap
Large to Small
P/E Ratio
High to Low
Dividend Yield1
High to Low
1.03% 1.37% 0.76%
1.10% 0.77% 1.25%
1.38%
2.19%
● Last week the best performing policy theme was Opioid
Crisis, while Space Force was the worst. Currently, the most
overbought policy theme is Drug Rebates, while the most
oversold policy theme is Data Regulation.
1.49% 0.75% 1.34%
0.31% 0.90% 1.46%1.20%
0.97%
1.15%
0.53% 1.33% 1.15%
Additional Resources
3rd
Analyst Ratings
Best to Worst
● Small Caps outperformed Mid & Large Caps. Credit spreads
were mixed, while the U.S. Dollar weakened (-1.0%) and
Commodities weakened (-0.2%).
4th
1.10% 1.01%
1st 2ndQuartiles
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Oc
t-1
8
De
c-1
8
Feb
-19
Ap
r-1
9
Ju
n-1
9
Au
g-1
9
Overbought
Oversold
Overbought (Oversold) = +1 Standard Deviation Above (Below) 50-DMA. Includes all U.S. Stocks > $1 billion market cap.
Analysis includes All U.S. Stocks. 1: Quartile 4 = non-dividend payingstocks. 2: Quartile 4 = stocks with no international revenue.
OS OBNeutral..
-3 0 3
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Investment Solutions
Policy Research
Market RecapWatch our CIO explain how to use this report
EventShares.com/MarketRecap
October 19, 2019
5G Technology Capital Markets Deregulation (SIFI Threshold)
Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket)
Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)
Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket)
Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)
5G deployment is a geopolitical battleground. The US and China are
racing to develop their respective 5G networks, and the winner will likely
set the technical standards for 5G. Setting standards is important
because it means the country's equipment will be used globally in
smartphones and Internet of Things (IoT) objects like self-driving cars. The
US views the latter as a national security threat and doesn't want to rely
on a Chinese 5G.
SEC Commissioner Jackson questioned the business model of stock
exchanges selling market data through a combination of public and
private feeds. Jackson claimed the exchanges underinvest in the public
data feeds, while at the same time overinvest in their private data feeds.
Regulation of private data feeds may lead to lower revenue and / or
discontinuation of private feeds.
Systemically Important Financial Institution (SIFI) threshold raised from $50
billion to $250 billion may benefit smaller, regional banks by lowering their
compliance costs. Increased potential for regional bank M&A as banks
look to scale their operations. A decrease in capital requirements may
free up cash to return to shareholders or grow the business, while relaxing
oversight may lead to lower compliance expenses.
October 19, 2019
Policy Research
Market RecapWatch our CIO explain how to use this report
EventShares.com/MarketRecap
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: +5.6%
$85
$95
$105
$115
$125
$135
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
-2 std
+2 std
Price
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
-2 std
+2 std
Price
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
-2 std
+2 std
Price
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -3.9%
Policy Research
Equal weight
50-day moving average
(50DMA) of basket
-2 standard
deviations from
50DMA
+2 standard deviations
from 50DMA
Trailing 1 Year Return relative
to the S&P 500 Index
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: +6.4%
Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac Legalized Sports Betting U.S. Infrastructure
Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket)
Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)
Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket)
Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)
Under Mick Mulvaney's leadership, the Consumer Financial Protection
Bureau (CFPB) is working to deregulate subprime and non-traditional
lenders. Financial institutions previously backed away from the subprime
and non-traditional markets after the passage of Dodd-Frank, which
increased regulation and costs for the short-term and payday lending
industries. The CFPB actions provide regulatory certainty and decrease
compliance costs.
During May 2018, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in the case of Murphy v.
NCAA. By a 6-3 majority, the court found that Congress exceed its
authority when it prevented state from legalizing and regulating sports
betting. The court ruling will likely spur the growth of the U.S. sports
betting industry. Companies that provide sports betting odds, build the
infrastructure to conduct the sports betting and manage gambler
information, and casinos may see increased revenue as sports betting
grows.
Companies involved in the privatization of infrastructure assets, such as
managing toll roads, may see increased revenues. In addition,
companies managing and performing the construction work may see
increased opportunities to grow their revenues. Construction material
companies, such as asphalt, rock, and steel, may see increased demand
under an infrastructure build out.
October 19, 2019
Policy Research
Market RecapWatch our CIO explain how to use this report
EventShares.com/MarketRecap
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
$220
$240
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
-2 std
+2 std
Price
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: +125.2%
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
-2 std
+2 std
Price
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -13.0%
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
-2 std
+2 std
Price
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: +3.8%
Policy Research
Space Force Data Regulation Cannabis Legalization
Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket)
Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)
Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket)
Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)
The Trump administration requested funding for a new military branch
during its most recent budget request. The new branch, called "Space
Force", would perform space related operations that include missile
warning and defense, space situational awareness and reconnaissance
with imaging satellites. This story is unfolding day by day and should be
watched closely in the coming months and years. For comparison, the
creation of the U.S. Cyber Command – the center for DoD cyberspace
activities – took ten years to reach full independent status from its first
official proposal. Space Force is even more complex endeavor, so it is
reasonable to expect an even longer time frame.
Rapidly expanding technology and social media companies may not be
able to collect and monetize individual user data resulting in less data
revenues. Third-party data brokers and aggregators may face increased
compliance costs and/or not be permitted to compile user data to
target specific advertising groups. This would be a significant disruption
to their business models. Credit reporting agencies may be subject to
increased compliance costs. Incoming House Democrats have made it
a priority to monitor credit reporting agencies and how they safeguard
sensitive consumer data.
Despite being illegal at the federal level, more and more states are
legalizing medical and recreational marijuana. While this trend likely
continues, it’s important to note there are significant policy implications
that come with legalizing marijuana, which could slow down federal
legalization. Those include taxing and regulating the product,
responding to employer concerns about liability and drug testing,
monitoring for driving under the influence, and addressing the marijuana
industry’s inability to use federally insured banks.
October 19, 2019
Policy Research
Market RecapWatch our CIO explain how to use this report
EventShares.com/MarketRecap
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
-2 std
+2 std
Price
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: +7.2%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -3.5%
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
-2 std
+2 std
Price
$60
$85
$110
$135
$160
$185
$210
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
-2 std
+2 std
Price
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -56.0%
Policy Research
Energy Infrastructure Defense White House Prescription Drug Price Plan
Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket)
Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)
Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket)
Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)
The Trump administration has aggressively pushed to deregulate energy
infrastructure, including natural gas pipelines, oil drilling, and gas shipping
terminals. For example, one aspect of the administration's overall plan
would shorten the time a state has to issue water permits, which are
needed for construction of interstate natural gas pipelines under Section
401 of the federal Clean Water Act. The Trump administration has also
pushed to redefine "navigable water" under the Waters of the United
States rule. If the Trump administration is successful in changing the
definition of navigable water, the energy sector may be able to expand
infrastructure more quickly and less expensively.
Companies with products that advance the technological capability of
the U.S. military may see new revenue growth as the Pentagon and
defense hawks push to modernize the military after years of lower
defense budgets in the Obama administration.
The Trump administration has previously issued an executive order to
speed up and deregulate the process of defense industry sales to foreign
allies.
The White House's push to increase generic drug approval by FDA may
offer pharmaceutical companies with large generic drug lineups the
opportunity to take market share from companies with branded drug
lineups. Potential regulations include the required disclosure of prices in
prescription drug ads and changing the rebate system (see 'Drug
Rebates' below).
October 19, 2019
Policy Research
Market RecapWatch our CIO explain how to use this report
EventShares.com/MarketRecap
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
-2 std
+2 std
Price
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -33.6%
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
-2 std
+2 std
Price
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: +5.5%
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
-2 std
+2 std
Price
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -36.1%
Policy Research
Drug Rebates ACA Opioid Crisis
Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket)
Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)
Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket)
Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)
Health and Human Services (HHS) submitted a proposed rule entitled
“Removal Of Safe Harbor Protection for Rebates to Plans or PBMs
Involving Prescription Pharmaceuticals and Creation of New Safe Harbor
Protection” to OMB for regulatory review. The proposal appears to follow
through on HHS Secretary Azar's comments around removing the
prescription drug rebate safe harbor under the Federal Anti-Kickback
Statute.
A Texas judge recently ruled the Affordable Care Act (ACA) is
unconstitutional. This introduced uncertainty into health insurance and
will likely lead to a multi-year appeals process. The judge elected to
keep the insurance exchanges and law in place while the issue is
appealed. The Trump administration and Republican governors are
beginning to look at expending Medicaid/ Medicare, which may
increase the insured populations in those government health insurance
programs.
The House Committee on Energy & Commerce released a report during
December 2018 finding that "drug distributors did not conduct proper
oversight of their customers and failed to recognize potential red flags".
The report also faulted the DEA for not putting in place policies and
procedures to prevent the overdistribution of opioids. If the drug
distributors are found to have willfully ignored red flags or drug
manufacturers are found to have withheld important information about
opioid addiction, we believe the companies may experience depress
valuation multiples or distract management teams from expanding the
businesses.
October 19, 2019
Policy Research
Market RecapWatch our CIO explain how to use this report
EventShares.com/MarketRecap
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
-2 std
+2 std
Price
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -21.7%
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
$150
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
-2 std
+2 std
Price
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -4.5%
$50
$70
$90
$110
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
-2 std
+2 std
Price
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -48.3%
Policy Research
Home Health Reimbursement E-Cigarette Ban Trade - NAFTA
Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket)
Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)
Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket)
Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)
The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) finalized a
proposed rule during October 2018 that changes the way post-acute
care (e.g. home health) is reimbursed under the Patient Driven
Groupings Model. The rule was a result of the Bipartisan Budget Act of
2018 and focuses on moving toward a values based payment system.
The new rule finalized a controversial methodology for calculating
reimbursement rates. The new payment rates and methodologies are
expected to be in place for fiscal year 2020.
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) unveiled its "Comprehensive
Plan for Tobacco and Nicotine Regulation" in July 2017. Under the plan,
the FDA has launched numerous education campaigns, including "The
Real Cost", "This Is Our Watch", and "Every Try Counts". The FDA took
additional steps in March 2018 by publishing three Notices of Proposed
Rulemaking that would regulate flavored tobacco products and the
nicotine level in combustible cigarettes. In the second half of 2018, the
FDA sent warnings letters to retailers who illegally sold JUUL pods and
requested plans from tobacco companies about how to curb underage
usage.
Due to the uncertainty around NAFTA negotiations, investors previously
sold off companies with significant Mexico and Canada revenue. Now
that the negotiations are wrapping up, investors may reinvest in these
securities. "Auto Rules of Origin" and the push to source more auto
content from high wage paying firms, such as U.S. auto parts suppliers,
may increase revenues for the auto parts industry.
October 19, 2019
Policy Research
Market RecapWatch our CIO explain how to use this report
EventShares.com/MarketRecap
$85
$95
$105
$115
$125
$135
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
-2 std
+2 std
Price
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: +22.7%
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
-2 std
+2 std
Price
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -30.8%
Policy Research
$65
$75
$85
$95
$105
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
-2 std
+2 std
Price
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -2.8%
Trade - China & I.P. Theft Student Loans & Servicing Education
Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket)
Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)
Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket)
Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)
Companies involved in the U.S.-Asia Pacific trade corridor may see
revenues decrease if trades flow decrease between the U.S. and Asia-
Pacific region. Chinese tariffs levied on U.S. agriculture exports (e.g.
soybeans) may result in decreased demand for machinery. Additionally,
the U.S. has accused Chinese companies of stealing technology and
intellectual property from U.S. companies. If China implements a policy
preventing large cap U.S. companies from accessing the growing
Chinese market, those companies may have a competitive
disadvantage against foreign companies.
The Department of Ed is working to update the federal student loan
program called NextGen. The overhaul initially focused on one
company to service student loans. However, that request for proposal
(RFP) was later ended and a new RFP is being opened after lawmakers
and student debt activists highlighted the risk of one company
controlling the student loan servicing market. As part of the NextGen
proposal, the loan servicers would assume the role of debt collection
over private collection agencies. In our view, this could be positive if the
companies can successfully work with the student to avoid a default,
allowing the companies to continue earning servicing fees.
The Trump administration, via the Department of Education (ED), recently
released a group of sweeping proposals to deregulate a broad range of
the higher education industry. The rules range from granting
accreditation agencies more leeway to approve nontraditional
educational models (e.g. online programs and outsourcing classes),
enhance protections for religious colleges, and eliminate the Obama
administration definition of a "credit hour". The above is in addition to the
ED proposal to rescind the Gainful Employment Rule and update the
‘College Scorecard’ to provide information on all Title IX institutions, not
just for profit and nontraditional colleges.
October 19, 2019
Policy Research
Market RecapWatch our CIO explain how to use this report
EventShares.com/MarketRecap
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
-2 std
+2 std
Price
-10%
0%
10%
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -0.6%
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
-2 std
+2 std
Price
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -12.0%
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
-2 std
+2 std
Price
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -5.9%
Policy Research
Value Based Reimbursement IMO 2020 Uranium
Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket)
Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)
Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket)
Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)
Health tech firms focused on increasing efficiency by improving patient
outcomes and lowering costs may increase revenue as the healthcare
sector moves to a value based reimbursement system.
Lower sulfur content in marine shipping fuels will change oil shipping
routes and increase the complexity of fuel logistics. Driven by the
inequality in refining ability among countries and current capacity
constraints, (1) oil will need to be moved to different geographic
refineries and (2) refined products will need to be transported from
excess fuel regions to those regions with a shortage of fuel. Multi-Year
Impact: Effective date 1/1/2020; Significant disruption in the marine fuel
and oil shipping market could last through 2022
Section 232 nuclear study is preventing the short-run uranium market from
functioning efficiently. Uranium is key input in nuclear energy production.
Utilities producing nuclear energy typically enter long-term contracts to
purchase uranium, but have pulled back from the long-term contract
market due to concerns over potential quotas or tariffs. A resolution to
the Section 232 study is expected during summer 2019 and could restore
the market functionality if utilities begin to lock in long-term contracts.
October 19, 2019
Policy Research
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Policy Research
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
-2 std
+2 std
Price
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -27.7%
$75
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$95
$105
$115
$125
$135
$145
$155
$165
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
-2 std
+2 std
Price
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
-2 std
+2 std
Price
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -30.2%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: +42.6%
Local Media Gun Stocks
Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket) Trading Range (Equal Weight Basket)
Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)
Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket) Relative Returns to S&P 500 Index (Equal Weight Basket)
Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019) Source: EventShares (as of 10/19/2019)
FCC review of local market ownership rules may lead to industry
consolidation and economies of scale. Local broadcast owner growth is
constrained by national audience caps, while digital advertisers (e.g. FB,
GOOGL, TWTR, SNAP) grow exponentially due to audience caps. Pricing
power increase in retransmission fee negotiations. We anticipate
broadcast industry consolidation will lead to increased pricing power
when broadcast owners negotiate retransmission fees with traditional
and virtual cable distributors.
Historically, gun stocks have performed better when Democrats take
control of the executive and legislative branches due to fear future
regulation constraining gun sales, leading to "a run" on gun and
ammunication sales. With 2020 elections on the horizon, this group of
stocks could see some outperformance if polling numbers show
Democratics chances of taking the White House.
October 19, 2019
Policy Research
Market RecapWatch our CIO explain how to use this report
EventShares.com/MarketRecap
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
$150
$160
$170
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
-2 std
+2 std
Price
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -2.3%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
1 Year vs S&P 500 Index: -43.5%
$50
$60
$70
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$90
$100
$110
$120
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19
-2 std
+2 std
Price
Performance (Policy Theme | Stock)
Capital Markets OB | OS Change 1 Week QTD Data Regulation 5G Telecom
CBOE N ↑ 1.0% 1.6% Alphabet OB ↑ 2.4% 1.9% American Tower N ↑ 2.1% 3.6%
CME Group N ↑ 0.2% 0.9% Amazon.com N ↑ 1.5% 1.2% Boingo Wireless OS ↓ -0.9% -15.3%
ICE OB ↑ 0.5% 2.3% CoreLogic N ↑ 1.2% 2.2% Broadcom N ↑ 2.1% 3.9%
Nasdaq N ↓ -0.7% -0.7% Equifax N ↑ 0.5% 2.9% Ciena N ↑ 1.7% -2.0%
Facebook N ↑ 0.9% 4.4% Cisco Systems N ↑ 0.3% -5.5%
Deregulation (SIFIs) Interpublic Group N ↑ 2.8% -4.2% CommScope N ↑ 3.3% -1.6%
American Express N ↑ 0.3% -1.3% LiveRamp OS ↓ -6.5% -12.2% Corning OB ↑ 0.9% 2.8%
Associated Bancorp OB ↑ 3.6% 1.3% Nielsen Holdings N ↑ 0.9% -1.7% Crown Castle N ↑ 5.4% 3.6%
BB&T N ↑ 1.3% -1.3% TransUnion N ↑ 1.1% 0.4% Dycom Industries OB ↑ 5.8% -0.7%
Fifth Third Bancorp N ↑ 1.8% -0.2% Twitter OS ↓ -3.4% -5.4% Ericsson OB ↑ 8.8% 15.0%
KeyCorp N ↑ 2.1% -0.4% InterDigital N ↓ -1.1% 0.5%
M&T Bank N ↓ -2.7% -3.6% Infrastructure Keysight Technologies N ↑ 3.4% 1.0%
PNC Financial OB ↑ 2.2% 2.4% AECOM OB ↑ 10.5% 9.3% Lattice Semiconductor N ↑ 0.5% 5.9%
SunTrust Banks N ↑ 1.4% -1.3% Astec Industries N ↑ 1.9% -0.6% Motorola N ↑ 4.5% 2.7%
U.S. Bancorp N ↑ 3.0% -0.5% Eagle Materials OB ↑ 2.2% 2.7% National Instruments N ↓ -0.2% -3.3%
Fluor N ↑ 1.1% -0.4% Nokia Oyj OB ↑ 3.6% 2.8%
Cannabis Legalization Granite Construction OB ↑ 8.1% 9.9% NXP Semiconductors N ↓ -1.6% -0.1%
Aurora Cannabis OS ↓ 0.0% -16.2% Herc Holdings OB ↑ 5.2% 0.4% ON Semiconductor N ↑ 0.5% -1.9%
Canopy Growth OS ↑ 4.0% -11.9% KBR N ↑ 1.3% 2.2% Qorvo OB ↑ 0.3% 4.7%
Cronos Group OS ↑ 6.1% -8.1% Martin Marietta N ↑ 0.1% -3.0% QUALCOMM N ↑ 1.3% 1.8%
GW Pharmaceuticals N ↑ 3.2% 2.7% NV5 Global N ↑ 1.8% 3.5% SBA Communications N ↑ 1.1% 1.2%
Tilray OS ↑ 2.0% -13.6% Primoris Services OB ↑ 3.5% 6.9% Skyworks Solutions OB ↑ 2.8% 10.8%
Summit Materials N ↑ 0.8% 0.8% Ubiquiti Networks OB ↑ 2.7% 6.9%
Sports Betting Tutor Perini OB ↑ 8.5% 15.0% Uniti Group N ↑ 4.5% -1.5%
Boyd Gaming OB ↓ 0.0% 8.6% U.S. Concrete OB ↑ 8.8% -4.2% Xilinx OS ↓ -2.0% -1.6%
Churchill Downs OB ↑ 0.0% 6.4% United Rentals OB ↑ 8.7% 3.2% Zayo Group OB ↑ 1.1% 1.3%
Eldorado Resorts OB ↑ 2.0% 8.0% Vulcan Materials N ↓ -0.9% -3.4%
Everi Holdings N ↑ 0.8% 5.7%
GVC Holdings OB ↑ 1.0% 14.7% Drug Rebates Student Loans & Servicing
Intl. Game Technology N ↓ -7.1% -7.6% Cigna OB ↑ 9.5% 9.9% Navient OS ↓ -0.8% -8.0%
Las Vegas Sands N ↓ -0.2% -0.5% CVS Health OB ↑ 5.1% 4.9% Nelnet OS ↓ -0.5% -5.1%
MGM Resorts N ↓ -0.7% 0.5% UnitedHealth Group OB ↑ 10.5% 12.9% SLM N ↑ 3.1% -0.2%
Penn National Gaming OB ↑ 7.0% 9.7%
Scientific Games N ↑ 1.4% 11.3% E-Cigarette Ban Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac
Stars Group OB ↓ -1.6% 31.9% Altria Group N ↑ 4.1% 8.4% Fannie Mae N ↓ -1.1% -6.8%
William Hill OB ↑ 2.3% 7.6% British American Tobacco OS ↑ 0.5% -6.4% Fannie Mae (Pfd) N ↓ -2.4% -4.1%
Wynn Resorts N ↑ 0.7% 4.4% Philip Morris N ↑ 3.3% 6.1% Freddie Mac N ↓ -1.2% -7.2%
Turning Point Brands OS ↓ -1.9% -3.3% Freddie Mac (Pfd) N ↓ -2.4% -4.1%
Energy Infrastruture Vector Group N ↑ 3.6% -2.7%
Baker Hughes N ↓ -2.1% -6.2% Home Health Reimbursement
Cheniere Energy N ↓ -0.2% -0.8% Space Force Addus HomeCare N ↑ 4.2% 8.7%
Fluor N ↑ 1.1% -0.4% Aerojet Rocketdyne OS ↓ -5.1% -9.9% Amedisys OS ↑ 4.0% 3.2%
Halliburton N ↓ -2.7% -2.2% Boeing OS ↓ -8.2% -9.6% Chemed N ↑ 0.1% 0.0%
Quanta Services OB ↑ 3.6% 6.4% Lockheed Martin OS ↓ -2.4% -4.5% LHC Group N ↑ 4.4% 2.6%
Schlumberger N ↓ -0.5% -5.4% Northrop Grumman OS ↓ -3.5% -6.7%
October 19, 2019
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Performance (Policy Theme | Stock)
Defense Spending OB | OS Change 1 Week QTD Trade - China & I.P. Theft Trade - NAFTA
AAR Corp. OB ↓ -2.7% -3.4% Advanced Micro Devices N ↑ 4.1% 6.8% American Axle OB ↑ 4.8% 1.1%
Aerojet Rocketdyne OS ↓ -5.1% -9.9% AGCO Corp. N ↑ 0.1% -2.3% Aptiv PLC OB ↑ 3.1% 1.8%
AeroVironment N ↑ 2.6% 8.0% Atlas Air Worldwide OS ↑ 3.9% -10.3% BorgWarner OB ↑ 4.1% 5.6%
Air Transport Services N ↑ 4.3% -2.7% Broadcom N ↑ 2.1% 3.9% Brown-Forman Corporation Class BN ↑ 1.2% 1.5%
Amedisys OS ↑ 4.0% 3.2% Caterpillar OB ↑ 1.8% 3.5% Constellation Brands N ↑ 2.0% -4.9%
Boeing OS ↓ -8.2% -9.6% CNH Industrial N ↑ 0.2% 5.9% Fluor N ↑ 1.1% -0.4%
Booz Allen Hamilton OB ↓ -2.2% -1.5% Deere & Company OB ↑ 1.7% 3.1% Ford Motor Company N ↑ 5.8% 1.4%
BWX Technologies N ↑ 0.9% -1.5% Expeditors N ↓ -0.6% -0.5% General Motors Company N ↑ 1.7% -3.5%
CACI International N ↓ -1.9% -2.5% IBM OS ↓ -6.1% -7.8% Kansas City Southern OB ↑ 8.8% 9.2%
Curtiss-Wright N ↓ -2.0% -2.9% Intel N ↓ -1.4% -0.3% Magna International OB ↑ 3.0% 0.2%
Ducommun OS ↓ -4.8% -7.2% Las Vegas Sands N ↓ -0.2% -0.5% Molson Coors Brewing N ↑ 1.6% -0.9%
FLIR Systems N ↓ -0.2% 0.6% Matson N ↑ 3.1% 1.1% Quanta Services OB ↑ 3.6% 6.4%
General Dynamics OS ↓ -2.9% -4.5% Micron N ↓ -3.6% 1.4% Union Pacific N ↑ 0.1% -0.3%
Harris OS ↓ -5.2% -5.1% NVIDIA OB ↑ 2.4% 9.4% Whirlpool Corporation OB ↑ 1.8% 1.7%
HEICO OB ↓ -2.8% -4.7% Qorvo OB ↑ 0.3% 4.7%
Hexcel OB ↓ -1.8% -7.3% QUALCOMM N ↑ 1.3% 1.8% Education
Huntington Ingalls N ↓ -0.8% -0.8% Rexford Industrial OB ↑ 2.2% 5.5% Adtalem Global OS ↓ -0.4% -5.9%
Kratos Defense N ↑ 1.8% 3.0% Skyworks Solutions OB ↑ 2.8% 10.8% American Public Education OS ↓ -2.7% -2.8%
Leidos OB ↓ -1.9% -5.0% Star Bulk Carriers OB ↓ -0.8% 9.2% Bright Horizons OS ↓ -3.3% -1.9%
Lockheed Martin OS ↓ -2.4% -4.5% Texas Instruments N ↓ -0.5% 0.2% Career Education OS ↓ -4.6% -8.6%
ManTech Intl. N ↓ -1.1% -3.1% Wynn Resorts N ↑ 0.7% 4.4% Grand Canyon Education OS ↓ -5.3% -4.2%
Mercury Systems OB ↓ -5.0% -11.5% K12 OS ↓ -3.7% -6.3%
Moog N ↑ 1.1% 3.1% Value Based Reimbursement Laureate Education OS ↓ -0.4% -6.2%
National Presto OS ↓ -3.3% -8.9% Allscripts Healthcare OB ↑ 2.5% -1.1% Strategic Education OS ↓ -6.7% -4.4%
Northrop Grumman OS ↓ -3.5% -6.7% Cerner N ↑ 0.3% -0.6%
OSI Systems OS ↑ 1.4% -3.2% Evolent Health N ↑ 8.6% 3.8% White House Drug Plan
Perspecta N ↓ -1.4% -1.7% Omnicell OB ↑ 2.3% 5.3% Allergan OB ↑ 2.7% 3.2%
Raytheon OB ↑ 0.5% 1.8% Tabula Rasa OS ↓ -4.8% -11.0% Eli Lilly OS ↑ 0.3% -2.9%
RBC Bearings N ↑ 1.9% -1.8% Teladoc Health N ↑ 2.6% 2.2% Gilead Sciences N ↑ 1.4% 2.4%
Science Applications OB ↓ -3.8% -6.9% Vocera N ↓ -1.7% -1.9% Mallinckrodt N ↑ 15.7% 10.4%
Textron N ↓ -5.8% -6.0% Mylan OS ↓ -3.0% -7.3%
TransDigm N ↑ 0.3% 1.1% ACA Pfizer N ↑ 1.0% 1.5%
Woodward N ↓ -0.1% -0.6% Anthem N ↑ 5.0% 3.9% Teva Pharmaceutical N ↑ 8.7% 9.0%
Centene N ↑ 5.9% 8.4% Vertex N ↑ 2.2% 4.0%
Opioid Crisis eHealth OS ↑ 6.6% -10.6%
AmerisourceBergen OB ↑ 9.4% 8.9% Encompass Health OB ↑ 4.0% 5.5% Local Media
Cardinal Health OB ↑ 9.8% 9.2% Ensign Group N ↑ 5.0% -5.5% E. W. Scripps N ↑ 1.4% -0.7%
Endo International OB ↑ 31.6% 51.9% HCA Healthcare N ↑ 2.7% 2.7% Gray Television N ↑ 4.9% 0.6%
Insys Therapeutics N ↑ 10.0% -38.9% Humana N ↑ 8.6% 13.1% Meredith N ↑ 7.3% 0.2%
Johnson & Johnson OS ↓ -2.8% -1.3% Masimo N ↑ 1.7% -0.6% Nexstar Media N ↓ -1.8% -5.1%
Mallinckrodt N ↑ 15.7% 10.4% Molina Healthcare N ↑ 8.4% 12.0% Sinclair Broadcast N ↑ 2.6% -1.5%
McKesson OB ↑ 13.0% 11.4% Universal Health N ↓ 0.0% -1.8% TEGNA OB ↑ 3.8% 1.4%
Mylan OS ↓ -3.0% -7.3% WellCare Health OB ↑ 3.8% 5.9%
Teva Pharmaceutical N ↑ 8.7% 9.0%
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Performance (Policy Theme | Stock)
IMO 2020 OB | OS Change 1 Week QTD Uranium Gun Stocks
Ardmore Shipping OB ↑ 2.3% 33.3% Cameco N ↓ -2.0% -3.3% American Outdoor Brands N ↓ -0.9% 16.7%
DHT Holdings OB ↓ -3.7% 16.9% Denison Mines N ↓ -0.5% 6.4% Axon Enterprise OS ↓ -4.9% -11.0%
Euronav NV OB ↓ -1.0% 22.0% Energy Fuels N ↓ -3.0% 0.0% Olin N ↓ -4.1% -2.8%
Frontline Ltd. OB ↓ -6.6% 17.4% Ur-Energy N ↓ -7.4% -3.9% Ruger OB ↑ 1.4% 7.8%
International Seaways OB ↓ -0.4% 31.7% Vista Outdoor N ↑ 0.3% 2.3%
Kirby N ↑ 0.9% -1.3%
Nordic American Tanker OB ↓ -3.1% 85.2%
Scorpio Tankers OB ↑ 0.4% 17.2%
Teekay Tankers OB ↑ 7.6% 63.1%
World Fuel Services OB ↑ 3.0% 0.6%
October 19, 2019
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Important Information © Active Weighting Advisors LLC ("AWA") is an SEC-registered investment adviser that manages ETFs under the brand name EventShares Funds. The opinions expressed herein arethose of AWA as of the published date and are subject to change. It is provided as general market commentary only, and it does not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation orparticular needs of any one client. The comments may not be relied upon as recommendations, investment advice or an indication of trading intent. AWA is not soliciting any action based on thisdocument. Investors should consult with their own financial adviser before making any investment decisions. There is no guarantee that any future event discussed herein will come to pass. Theinformation herein was obtained from various sources, which we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The policy themes and baskets mentioned herein areunmanaged and are not available for direct investment. Returns assume no management, transaction or other expenses and no reinvestment of dividends, interest and/or capital gains. Pastperformance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal and fluctuation of value. AWA disclaims responsibility for updating information.In addition, AWA disclaims responsibility for third-party content, including information accessed through hyperlinks.
October 19, 2019
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About EventShares
EventShares is an investment management firm dedicated to translating
legislation and regulation coming out of Washington D.C. into real world
investment solutions. The firm's goal is to provide its clients with attractive, long-
term results by following a disciplined and differentiated approach to investing.
Additional information at www.EventShares.com.
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