The Euro is Oversold, the Dow is not!

8/8/2019 The Euro is Oversold, the Dow is not!

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Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Newtown, PA. ValuEnginecovers over 7,000 stocks every day.

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November 1 8, 2010 The Euro is Oversold, th e Dow is no t !

The yield on the 10-Year note reached 2.969 on Monday versus my annual value level at 2.999.

On Wednesday the yield touched 2.798 versus my annual pivot at 2.813. Gold tested its 50-daysimple moving average on Tuesday and Wednesday and this support is $1331.6. Closes havebeen above its 50-day since August 12th. Crude oil moved below its 50-day at $80.89, but isback above it this morning. The euro is oversold and below its 50-day at 1.3674. The Dow is nooversold and remains overbought on its weekly chart. The 50-day has held at 10.980. The FDICLaunched Investigations against Some Failed Banks, But who is investigating the FDIC forignoring Regulatory Guidelines? Housing Starts weaken!

10-Year Note (2.867) My daily and annual value levels are 2.992 and 2.999 with my annual pivot at2.813, and weekly, monthly, quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 2.441, 2.380, 2.265 and 2.249.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters


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Comex Gold ($1335.0) Quarterly, semiannual and annual value levels are $1306.4, $1260.8,$1218.7 and $1115.2 with a daily pivot at $1348.5, and monthly and weekly risky levels at $1373.0 an

$1424.1.


Nymex Crude Oil ($80.36) Monthly and annual value levels are $78.51 and $77.05 with daily andsemiannual pivots at $81.91 and $83.94, and weekly, semiannual and annual risky levels at $91.33,$96.53 and $97.29.



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The Euro (1.3525) Quarterly, daily and monthly value levels are 1.3318, 1.3283 and 1.2709 withweekly and semiannual risky levels at 1.4618 and 1.4733.


Daily Dow: (11,008) Monthly, semiannual, annual and quarterly value levels are 10,848, 10,558,10,379 and 8,523 with a daily pivot at 10,962, and annual, semiannual, and weekly risky levels at

11,235, 11,296, and 11,579.



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The FDIC Launched Investigations against Some Failed Banks, But who is investigating theFDIC for ignoring Regulatory Guidelines?

The FDIC has launched 50 criminal investigations of banks that failed since the start of The GreatCredit Crunch in claims that top $2 billion. The total number of bank failures so far this year is 146and 311 since the end of 2007. The FDIC has more than 800 banks on their non-list of problem banks

Back in the fall of 2005, the Federal Reserve, US Treasury and the Federal Deposit InsuranceCorporation (FDIC) realized that community banks were loaning funds to the housing and real estatemarkets at a pace above what these regulators thought as prudent. Guidelines were set andmonitored via quarterly filings to the FDIC. These guidelines were formalized by the end of 2006, andwere administered and ignored by the FDIC.

The Ignor ed Regulat or y Guidel ines

Overexposure to construction and development loans: The first guideline states that if loans foconstruction, land development, and other land are 100% or more of total risk capital, theinstitution is considered to have loans concentrations above prudent risk levels, and shouldhave heightened risk management practices.

Overexposure to construction and development loans including loans secured by multifamilyand commercial properties: If loans for construction, land development, and other land, andloans secured by multifamily and commercial property are 300% or more of total risk capital, thinstitution would also be considered to have a CRE concentrations above prudent levels, andshould employ heightened risk management practices.

There are many more community banks that are failure candidates. 1172 of all community banks (14.8%) are overexposed to Construction & Development Loans 1432 or 18.1% are overexposed to Nonfarm / Nonresidential real estate loans. 2504 or 31.7% are thus overexposed to Commercial Real Estate loans. 1317 or 16.7% have a real estate loan pipeline thats 100% funded. 2622 or 33.2% have a pipeline thats between 80% and 100% funded. 3939 of 49.9% of all banks have a pipeline thats 80% or more funded. So half the

community banks in America remain overleveraged to Commercial Real Estate and thepossible losses remain about $1.5 trillion.

I repeat Where is the probe of the FDIC on this matter?

Housing Starts Plunged in October - Housing starts slumped 11.7% to a seasonally adjusted annuarate of 519,000 units in October. Single-family starts declined a modest 1.1% to 436,000 units. Homebuilders are finding it next to impossible to obtain construction financing, which is a drag on homeproduction and economic growth. Despite some signs of buyer interest the inability to get constructionfunding comes when the supply of new homes is low. The NAHB describes this situation as under-buiand in my opinion home builders would sell more homes during a period where the foreclosureprocess is under scrutiny.


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Thats todays Four in Four. Have a great day.

Richard SuttmeierChief Market StrategistValuEngine.com(800) 381-5576

Send your comments and questions to [email protected]. For more information on our products and services visitwww.ValuEngine.com

As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, andquarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. Mynewest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go HERE to review sample issues andfind out more about my research.

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The Euro is Oversold, the Dow is not!