War Games: The Secret World of the Creators, Players, and Policy Makers Rehearsing WorldWar III Today by Thomas B. AllenReview by: Gregory F. TrevertonForeign Affairs, Vol. 66, No. 1 (Fall, 1987), p. 192Published by: Council on Foreign RelationsStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/20043307 .

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192 FOREIGN AFFAIRS

BETTER A SHIELD THAN A SWORD: PERSPECTIVES ON DEFENSE AND TECHNOLOGY. By Edward Teller. New York: Free Press, 1987, 225 pp. $19.95.

The title of Teller's book makes it sound as though it too is about SDI, and so it is in part. But its 30 short essays, about half of them published before, range across Teller's life, work and philosophy. His sketches of the famous physicists with whom he has worked are engaging. The book displays no shortage of ego, but if it will not change the minds of his detractors, it does provide insight into a man who has had a profound impact on the

shape of weaponry in this century.

AMERICA THE VULNERABLE: THE THREAT OF CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WARFARE. By Joseph D. Douglass, Jr., and Neil C. Liv

ingstone. Lexington (Mass.): Lexington Books, 1987, 204 pp. $19.95. This is an attempt to sound the tocsin over the emerging threat of

chemical and biological weapons, especially those that might emerge from the revolution in biotechnology. For the authors, the threat derives not just from the Soviet Union but also from Third World states and, still more

ominous, from terrorists working in home laboratories. The warning is on

the mark, but it is undermined by the book's heavy-handed assertions?for

instance, that America's domestic narcotics problem derives from a number of factors, "not the least of which is the direct role played by nations such as Cuba, Nicaragua, Bulgaria, East Germany and Hungary."

WAR GAMES: THE SECRET WORLD OF THE CREATORS, PLAY ERS, AND POLICY MAKERS REHEARSING WORLD WAR III TO DAY. By Thomas B. Allen. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1987,402 pp. $19.95.

The story this book has to tell?of gaming and simulation extending back to military chess of the 17th century?is better than the theme

suggested by its subtitle: that the abstractions of gaming encourage a belief that wars can be fought and won. Its own evidence belies that conclusion, for the book tells how simulations anticipated recent messy situations in both the Strait of Hormuz and in Middle East hijackings.

INTELLIGENCE AND STRATEGIC SURPRISES. By Ariel L?vite. New York: Columbia University Press, 1987, 220 pp. $27.50.

This small book is thought-provoking if ultimately unconvincing. It launches a broadside against the now conventional wisdom about surprise attack, based in significant measure on Roberta Wohlstetter's classic work on Pearl Harbor: that warning was available but not grasped because of

organizational and psychological barriers. Reexamining Pearl Harbor and

Midway, L?vite argues that in fact sufficient warning indicators were not

available before Pearl Harbor. Two cases, however, are a modest basis for

generalizing, especially for an author as careful about method as L?vite.

More important, he comes close to arguing a tautology: if warning was not

grasped, the indicators must have been insufficient.

General: Economie and Social

William Diebold, Jr. INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION. By Ralph C.

Bryant. Washington: Brookings, 1987, 181 pp. $26.95 (paper, $9.95).

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