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SINTEF Energy Research 1
Vulnerability related to critical functions/ components
RISK DSAM Workshop
2009-09-29Stockholm
[email protected] Energy Research
SINTEF Energy Research 2
Outline
Vulnerability
and security
of
supply
–
definitions
Risk and vulnerability
assessment
using
bow tie-model
Monitoring
vulnerability
and security
of
supply
Vulnerability
in RISK DSAM
SINTEF Energy Research 3
Vulnerability related to critical functions/ components
Objective
in RISK DSAM:
Develop methods, which can be used to describe the society’s vulnerability related to critical functions/components in the distribution sector
Survey vulnerability indicators
in use and describe state of the art
Propose indicators to monitor the effect of maintenance and reinvestments. Describe data needed to estimate the indicators
Models and methods to identify critical functions/ components.
SINTEF Energy Research 4
Vulnerability and security of supply – Definitions
SINTEF Energy Research 5
Vulnerability – a definition
A characteristic of an element of the critical infrastructure's design,
implementation, or operation that renders it susceptible to destruction or
incapacitation by a threat
EPCIP Green Paper, COM(2005) 576 final
Vulnerability
is closely
related
to security
of
supply
SINTEF Energy Research 6
Security of electricity of supply - SoS
”Security of electricity supply means the ability of an electricity system to supply final customers with electricity”
(EU Directive)
Energy availability
Power capacity
Reliability
Power system failures
SINTEF Energy Research 7
Factors influencing SoS and vulnerability
System securityand integrity
Legislation, electricity
market and monopoly
regulation
Assetmanagement
Operation, monitoringand control
Structure, topology, technology
Emergencypreparedness,
Crisismanagement
Labour force,competence,
skills
Standards, criteria, grid codes
etc
Environment
Terror, sabotage
etc
SINTEF Energy Research 8
Challenges and concerns related to vulnerabilities in the power system
Climate
changes
–
increasing
climatic
stress
Ageing
assets
Restructuring, outsourcing, workforce
reductions
Increasing
ICT -
and mutual dependencies
Integration
of
distributed
generation
Terrorism
and organised
crime
etc.
SINTEF Energy Research 9
Risk and vulnerability assessment using bow tie model
SINTEF Energy Research 10
Bow tie-model
Unwantedevent
Causes Consequences
Threats
Vulnerabilities
SINTEF Energy Research 11
Bow-tie with fault- and event tree
Unwantedevent
Causes Consequences
Threats
Fault
tree
Event
treeBarrier 1 Resource1Condition1
YN
Consequence 1
Consequence 2
Consequence 3
Consequence 4
Barrier 2 Resource 2Condition 2
YN
Barrier 3 Resource 3Condition 3
YN
Barrier 1 Resource1Condition1
YN
Barrier 1 Resource1Condition1
YN
Consequence 1
Consequence 2
Consequence 3
Consequence 4
Barrier 2 Resource 2Condition 2
YN
Barrier 2 Resource 2Condition 2
YN
Barrier 3 Resource 3Condition 3
YN
Barrier 3 Resource 3Condition 3
YN
SINTEF Energy Research 12
Security of supply – Unwanted events
Power systemfailures
Causes Consequences
Threats
Vulnerabilities
Energy shortage
Capacityshortage
Three types of
unwanted
events
Doorman, G., Kjølle, G.H., Uhlen, K., Huse, E.S., Flatabø, N.: Vulnerability
of
the
Nordic Power System, SINTEF Energy Research 2004, Technical report
A5962
SINTEF Energy Research 13
Unwanted events and Consequences
Power systemfailures
Causes Consequences
Threats
Vulnerabilities
Energy shortage
Capacityshortage
Three types of
consequences
Highprices
Wide-areainterruption/
Blackout
Curtailment/rationing
Doorman, G., Kjølle, G.H., Uhlen, K., Huse, E.S., Flatabø, N.: Vulnerability
of
the
Nordic Power System, SINTEF Energy Research 2004, Technical report
A5962
SINTEF Energy Research 14
Threats, unwanted events and consequences
Power systemfailures
Causes Consequences
Vulnerabilities
Natural hazard
Antagonistic
Operational/ Technological
Social
Energyshortage
Capacityshortage
Highprices
Wide-areainterruption/
Blackout
Curtailment/rationing
Example
from NordSecurEl-
project
Doorman, G., Kjølle, G.H., Uhlen, K., Huse, E.S., Flatabø, N.: Vulnerability
of
the
Nordic Power System, SINTEF Energy Research 2004, Technical report
A5962
SINTEF Energy Research 15
Wide-area interruptions: Chain of events and different paths
Causes Consequences
Threat
Threat
Threat
Threat
Threat
Power systemfailures
Geographicalextent
No. of
peopleaffected
Load
disconnected
Interruptionduration
Societal
costs
Vulnerability
is primarily
associated
with
events
which
potentially
impose
severe
consequences
SINTEF Energy Research 16
Historical wide-area interruptions (blackouts – examples)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
0,1 1 10 100 1000Hours
Dis
conn
ecte
d lo
ad (M
W)
Sweden 1983
Southern Sweden/ EasternDenmark 2003Western Norway 2004
Helsinki 2003
Southern Sweden 2005(Gudrun)Canada 1998
France 1999
Europe, UCTE 2006
Gudrun: Mainly
distribution
system affected
SINTEF Energy Research 17
Monitoring vulnerability and security of supply
SINTEF Energy Research 18
Monitoring security of supply – state of the art (in Norway)
Energy and power
balance
Fault
and interruption
statistics
Learning
from blackouts/ major events
Risk and vulnerability
assessment
Age development
of
assets
Investment
costs
Maintenance
and reinvestment
costs
SINTEF Energy Research 19
The reliability of supply is improving…?
Energy not supplied for the Norwegian power system
SINTEF Energy Research 20
Example from fault statistics: fault rate for 22 kV overhead lines (Norway)
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
No.
of f
aults
per
100
km
Temporary faultsPermanent faultsAll faults
SINTEF Energy Research 21
Example from fault statistics, 66 kV overhead lines in North of Norway
1
10
100
1000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
No of faultsENS MWh
Steigen blackout 2007
Fault
statistics
give
historical
information
about
failed
components
only
SINTEF Energy Research 22
Examples of SoS-indicators in use
Number
of
interruptions
Interruption
duration
Energy not supplied
Interruption
costs
Cost
of
very
long
interruptions
(> 12 hrs)
Fault
rate
Number
of
line repairmen
Number
of
reserve units
Vegetation
management
(frequency
etc.)
SINTEF Energy Research 23
Vulnerability in RISK DSAM
SINTEF Energy Research 24
Example relevant for the vulnerability activity in RISK DSAM
How will the maintenance or reinvestment influence the distribution system’s susceptibility towards the 150 year storm – and the society’s vulnerability?
Is it possible
to define
indicators
capable
of monitoring
the
effect
of
maintenance
and
reinvestment
regarding
vulnerability?
SINTEF Energy Research 25
Vulnerability indicator
Parameter providing
information about
vulnerability
Work
in progress …
SINTEF Energy Research 26
Vulnerabilities and barriers
Power systemfailures
Causes Consequences
Natural hazard
Technical/ operational
Human errors
Terror, sabotage
etc.
Barriers
Minor Moderate
Major Critical Catastrophic
Wide-areainterruption/
Blackout
Vulnerability
is related
to the
barriers; if
a barrier
doesn’t
exist
or is out
of
function
the
system may
be vulnerable
SINTEF Energy Research 27
Barrier – a definition
Something that can either prevent an event from taking place or protect against its
consequence
E. Hollnagel, 2004
SINTEF Energy Research 28
Different types of barriers
Causes Consequences
Threat
Threat
Threat
Threat
Threat
Power systemfailures
Geographicalextent
Peopleaffected
Load disconnected
Interruptionduration
Societal costs
B1 B2 B3 B4
Causes Consequences
Threat
Threat
Threat
Threat
Threat
Power systemfailures
Geographicalextent
Peopleaffected
Load disconnected
Interruptionduration
Societal costs
B1 B2 B3 B4
B1: Barriers to prevent component failure
B2: Barriers to prevent power system failure
B3: Barriers to facilitate restoration
B4: Barriers to reduce end-users consequences
SINTEF Energy Research 29
Effect of maintenance and reinvestments – examples of barriers
Type B1 :
Limiting
presence
of
degraded
components
by preventive maintenance
and replacement
Design improvements
to increase
redundancy
or strength
Vegetation
management
Replacing
overhead lines with
cables
Type B2:
Testing of
protection
settings and schemes
Type B3:
Standardisation
of
spare parts, maintenance
friendly
components
SINTEF Energy Research 30
Work in progress in RISK DSAM …
Identify
relevant threats
and how
maintenance
and reinvestments
can
limit component
failure
or facilitate
restoration
Identify
a set
of
vulnerability
indicators
regarding maintenance
and reinvestments
and describe
data
needed
to estimate
the
indicators
Methods
to identify
critical
components/functions
This activity
is closely
related
to another
project
SINTEF Energy Research 31
Vulnerability and security in a changing power system – related project
Indicators
and methods
to monitor and classify
vulnerabilities
in electric
power grids
Methods
and operational
tools for power
system risk and
vulnerability
analysis
and assessment
of
the
level
of
security
of
supply
Duration
2009 –
2012
Budget: 16,6 mill. NOK ≈
1,8 mill. Euro