Vulnerability and adaptive capacity of biodiversity in Wales

Dr Clive Walmsley

Countryside Council for Wales

Hickling et al. 2006, Global Change Biology

Climate change impacts are widespread and happening now

N

S

Many future threats & opportunities facing UK biodiversity

• Frequency of extreme weather events • Increased risk of fire • Facilitation of non-native invasive species through climate change

and invasional meltdown• Dramatic changes in freshwater flows• Increased demand for biofuel and biomass• Facilitate species range change in face of climate change• Sea-level rise resulting in loss of coastal/intertidal habitats• Reduction of coldwater continental shelf habitats• Significant increase in coastal and offshore power • Ocean acidification• Nature conservation policy and practice may not keep pace

with environmental change• Geo-engineering to mitigate effects of climate change

Sutherland et al. 2008, J. Appl. Ecol.

• Programme of Action Sets out proposed actions to deliver climate change objectives

• Emission reduction by business, transport, residential, waste, public, agriculture and land use sectors

• Adaptation to climate change in our environment, economy and society

• Importance of behavioural change in all sectors

Climate Change Strategy for Wales

CCW’s Climate Change Position Statement

• Monitoring - climate change and its impacts to inform action

• Projecting change - in climate and its environmental impacts to inform action

• Understanding and awareness - climate change, its impacts and potential responses

• Enhancing resilience - development of actions and policies that improve resilience

• Reducing emissions - an integrated approach to our own and facilitating others

Monitoring climate change Yr Wyddfa/Snowdon ECN site

© CCW

Monitoring climate changeMarine: Skomer MNR

2020s High

Scenario

Projecting future change: greater horseshoe bat

2050s High

Scenario

2080s High

Scenario

Type of weather event reported

Spatial distribution of reported weather events corrected by population

Sites ranked based on proportion of habitat area assessed as highly vulnerable to climate change over the next 20 years

Wilson et al. 2010.

Welsh SSSIs & SACs containing highly vulnerable habitat features

a) SSSIs (406 sites)

26%

61%

13%

H habitats M habitats L habitats

b) SACs (79 sites)

54%

28%

18%

H habitats M habitats L habitats

Wilson et al. 2010. CCW Science Report No. 942. Climate Vulnerability Assessment of Designated Sites in

Wales

UK Biodiversity Partnership:guidelines

•Actions we can start now – not requiring new policy or legislation•No regrets –good things to do even without climate change•Set the direction of change not the final destination•Maintaining Protected Areas and their appropriate management underpins all other elements of advice

Develop measures that improve resilience to climate change

Collating case studies and evidence

• Enhancing resilience at a local or landscape scale

• Monitoring and projecting impacts

• Understanding and awareness of adaptation issues

• Emissions reduction projects with synergy for biodiversity adaptation