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Vulnerability and Adaptation
Kristie L. Ebi, Ph.D., MPHExecutive Director, WGII TSU
PAHO/WHO Workshop on Vulnerability and Adaptation Guidance
20 July 2010
Impacts = ƒ ExposureVulnerability
ExposureVulnerability
Vulnerability = the degree to whicha system is susceptible to or unable to cope with the adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes
Sensitivity = the degree to which a system is affected by climate variability and change
Definitions of Vulnerability Vary Across Sectors
• IPCC definition also states that vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity– This views vulnerability as the expected net
damage after all possible adaptation / mitigation and not current situation
• This definition is from natural hazards research– Vulnerability determines adaptive capacity vs
adaptive capacity determine vulnerability
Multi-Hazard Map of Africa
2009 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction
Multi-Hazard Map of Asia
2009 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction
Number of Drought DisastersEMDAT (1974-2004)
2009 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction
People Exposed to Drought
2009 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction
Mortality Risk for Tropical Cyclones
Vulnerability
• For human systems, vulnerability relates to the consequences of exposure, not to the exposure itself (i.e. people and communities are vulnerable to damage and loss rather than to specific exposures such as flooding)
• Highly dependent on context and scale– Vulnerability changes over spatial and
temporal scales– Socioeconomic and biophysical dimensions
Sri Lanka Extensive and Intensive Loss Reports 1970-2007
2009 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction
Everyone is Vulnerable, However
• Vulnerability is not evenly distributed• Vulnerability to one hazard is often quite
different from vulnerability to another• Vulnerability varies over time and
location• Vulnerability can depend on a wide
range of socioeconomic and biogeophysical factors and trends
• National level indicators of vulnerability aggregate across significant differences
Defining levels of vulnerability for intervention
is a social and political process that depends on the
question being asked
Prerequisites for Action
• Awareness that a problem exists• Understanding of the causes• A sense that the problem matters• The capability to influence• The political will to deal with the
problem
Last 1998
Future vs Current Vulnerability
• Future and current vulnerability do not necessarily map directly– Current climate vs. climate change in the
absence of adaptation/ mitigation vs. residual vulnerability
• Some regions and communities will be particularly affected by changing climate variability, others by gradual changes in climate
• Identifying emerging vulnerability hot spots depends on projections of development pathways and of climate change impacts
Baseline
Ebi et al. 2005
2025
Ebi et al. 2005
2050
Ebi et al. 2005
Tropical Cyclones Over a 30-Year Period
2009 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction
Adapting to climate change is not a problem
to be solved, but a process to be managed
Responding to climate change involves an iterative
risk management process that includes both adaptation and mitigation and takes into
account climate change damages, co-benefits,
sustainability, equity and attitudes to risk
IPCC 2007 Synthesis Report
Addressing Changing Risks
• Existing risks– Modifying existing strategies and
programs– Reinstitute effective programs that
have been neglected or abandoned– Apply win/win or no-regrets
strategies
• New risks
– Design and implement strategies and programs that take into account a changing climate and changing vulnerabilities
Adaptation Measures to Reduce Health Outcomes from Floods
• Legislative policies: Improve land use planning
• Decision support tools: Early warning systems and emergency response plans
• Surveillance and monitoring: Alter health data collection systems to monitor for disease outbreaks during and after an extreme event
• Infrastructure development: Design infrastructure to withstand projected extreme events
• Other: Conduct research on effective approaches to encourage appropriate behavior
Prioritizing Adaptation Options
• Evaluate effectiveness of adaptation options by certainty, timing, severity, and importance of impacts
• Evaluate effectiveness of adaptation options under the following scenarios– Current climate– A hotter and drier climate– A hotter and wetter climate– Hotter with more variable precipitation
What Does This Mean?
• We look for:– Adaptations that make sense anyway
• And make even more sense considering climate change
• Policies that reduce vulnerability to climate variability will generally reduce risk to climate change
– Marginal adjustments and low cost– Target of opportunity– “No regrets”
Thank-you
Observed summer (Dec-Feb) rain
Forecast (November- modelled) summer
rain
Highest malaria incidence years
Lowest malaria incidence years
Climate Information
Adaptation