VP_Value Killer OTTs in Africa

– 1 –We make ICT strategies work

Version-N.1.0025.08.2014

“OTTs” – Value Killers for Telcos? Focus on African Operators

Executive Summary

The current developments in the OTT market increase the pressure on operators. There is only a short window of opportunity to develop the right response strategy.

The Operator Profitability Trap

The Rise of OTT Players

A Regulatory A Regulatory Imbalance Remains

Definition of a Response Strategy

Learning from Learning from best practices

Global Data Usage Growth

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1 Innovation in the field of ICT products and services is significantly changing human communication behavior and drives data usage on both fixed and mobile networks, a challenge all Telco operators have to deal with.

Global data traffic has exceeded voice traffic by far but the generated revenues can not (yet) cover the required network investments as OTT players claim an increasing amount of traditional Telco revenues for themselves.

The globally growing number of OTT players with innovative business models is putting increasing pressure on Telco operators. The market for OTT services is expected to surpass the “traditional” Telco services market by the year 2021.

As a new regulatory balance is not yet in sight, operators need to act quickly on their own to cater for these challenges and develop adequate OTT response strategies.

There is only a short window of opportunity for operators to elaborate a specific response strategy before their performance is significantly impacted by OTTs. Operators can choose between a Defend, Attack or a Cooperate Strategy.

By carefully analyzing the strategies chosen by other operators around the globe, operators can draw upon best practices and benchmarks to support their decision making.

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Content

1. Overview and introduction The drivers for fixed and mobile data growth

The operator profitability trap

2. Trends and challenges3. Possible scenarios for Telco operators4. Selected case studies5. Detecon’s approach6. Detecon’s references and publications7. Authors and contact information

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Det

econ

Overview and Introduction: The drivers for fixed and mobile data growth

Innovation in the field of ICT products and services is significantly changing human communication behavior and drives data usage on both fixed and mobile networks.

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The drivers for fixed and mobile data growth Selected quantified data drivers

+4%

2019

8.506

1.782

4.383

2.341

2013

6.657

4.531

1.919207

<3G3G4G / LTE

+1.029%

+128%

-69%

Mobile Subscribers (in Million)

97 341

159

2019

365

25

+6%

2013

256

Regular TVsSmart TVs

TV Device Sales (in Million)

+721%

-86%

Source: IC Intelligence Centre (2013) - TV Devices ForecastsSource: Ovum (2014) - Mobile Subscription and Revenue ForecastSource: Ovum (2013) - Global Cellular M2M ConnectionsSource: Strategy Analytics (2013) - VoLTE, OTT Voice & Video Call Forecasts

199

494

2013 2019

+16%

M2M Connections (in Million)

+% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)

185

2013 2019

1.636

+44%

Active Videocall* Accounts (in Million)

* e.g. Skype and Facetime

Overview and Introduction: The operator profitability trap

OTT players evolve into the service providers of the future at the expense of Telco operators, pushed them into a severe data transport revenue and profitability trap.

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The Internet is evolving into an imbalanced media distribution platform (increasing downloads and stagnating uploads)

Data traffic is growing exponentially and significant network investments are needed to meet the future demand

The needed investments can not (yet) be recovered by data revenues and traditional voice revenues continue to shrink

In addition, OTT players re-shuffle the market balance by focusing on the content offering, rather than on the traffic

Operator profit margins significantly decrease over time and require innovative solutions to address these challenges

Revenue development in relation to traffic growth The Telco operator profitability trap

The key challenges for Telco operators

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

CAPEX + DepreciationOPEXRevenues

Shrinkingmargins

EBITnegative

EBITDAnegative

Unit: Million US $

Source: Analysis Mason (2014) - Fixed network data traffic worldwideSource: Strategy Analytics (2014) - Wireless Operator Performance Benchmarking Q1 2014

813.409

266.669

20162013

328.551157.850

1.654.872

2019

450.509

Mobile Network Traffic MNO Data revenues

Fixed Network Traffic

25.000

10.000

400.000

15.000

5.000

20.000

0

450.000

50.0000

250.000

100.000

200.000

350.000300.000

150.00020.217

17.744

376.360

2016 2019

403.231

2013

432.019

15.574

Mobile Voice Minutes (global)

Mobile Voice Revenues (global)

Minutes: Billion unitsRevenue: Million US $

Traffic: in PetabyteRevenue: Million US $

Content

1. Overview and introduction2. Trends and challenges The rise of OTT players

The rationale for OTT growth

Categories of OTT services

OTT player monetization strategies

The impact of revenue squeezers

The potential of revenue generators

The current regulatory imbalance

The need to develop adequate response strategies

Operators at the crossroads

3. Possible scenarios for Telco operators4. Selected case studies5. Detecon’s approach6. Detecon’s references and publications7. Authors and contact information

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Trends and challenges: The rise of OTT players

The number of OTT players that offer fully “location-independent” innovative services is constantly growing, attracting millions of subscribers with on a global scale.

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OTT Landscape - Overview of the most dominant OTT players

Source: Detecon Research 2014

Trends and challenges: The rationale for OTT growth

OTT players are expected to surpass established Telcos in the long run by claiming the majority of revenues from services that are built on top of the operator’s infrastructure.

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The forecasted absolute growth rates highlight the changing relationship between traditional vs. future services

OTT service revenues explode as:

Services with a large customer base move from free to “fremium” or subscription based models

OTTs expand and focus their services on mobile platforms, as the mobile penetration rates rise and usage behavior evolves

The data analytics and business intelligence tools evolve, increasing advertisement funding

This revenue explosion is built on the back of network operators, leaving them with network expansion costs to accommodate the data growth

Operators will face severe profitability challenges in the future

Development of global Telco and OTT services market (2010 – 2021) The rationale for OTT growth

2021(e)

753702

2020(e)

526

675

2019(e)

368

649

2018(e)

257

624

2017(e)

180

600

2016(e)

158

580

2015

137

560

2014

117

540

2013

94

519

+53%

74

497

2011

58

20122010

41

458

+1.720%

476

OTT Services MarketTelco Services Market

Source: IDATE - World Internet Services Markets 12/2013 and Detecon Forecast (e)

Unit: Billion US $

Trends and challenges: Categories of OTT services

OTT players offer a variety of services over Telco infrastructure. Telcos need to leverage the benefits of complementary services and constrain the impacts of destructive ones.

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OTT services can be classified into different categories, according to their impact on traditional Telco Business

Destructive Services, e.g.:

Messaging Services such as WhatsApp, Line, etc. directly cannibalize SMS revenues

VoIP Services, such as Skype or Viber directly cannibalize revenues,

– Revenue decline of international calls e.g. in high price regions like Africa

– Business calls substituted by collaboration software such as LYNC

Complementary Services, e.g.:

Online Gaming or Video can be complimentary to Telco business if data transport costs are covered

Cloud Services are complimentary depending on positioning (e.g. hosted storage services)

Breakdown of OTT Internet Services Market in 2017* The nature of OTT Services

OTT VoIP 5.1252.104

Music 7.7886.337

OTT video 28.86912.647

Online games 43.36922.720

Social 56.35123.222

Other ads(press, portals, etc…) 65.423

26.544

Paid mobile apps (including games) 58.731

28.746

E-commerce (value added) 81.569

40.105

Search 130.62854.808

Cloud (excl. mobile apps) 254.197

79.299

20192013

Source: IDATE - World Internet Services Markets 12/2013

Unit: Million US $

* Data for Messaging not reported via IDATE

OTTs focus on content distribution to monetize on subscription fees and advertisement revenues

By offering free services financed by targeted advertisements, OTTs quickly achieve a significant customer base which, in turn, drives ad. revenues

Integration with other OTT services and platforms increases the potential to cross-sell other high value products

Trends and challenges: OTT player monetization strategies

The revenues generated by OTTs come from an intelligent mix of content delivery and advertisement, reducing the operators to mere infrastructure providers or “dumb pipes”.

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Revenue development from OTT services (2010 – 2017) in Million US$

22.58020.15117.85715.74013.0249.713

4.534 7.2723.9233.4112.9662.5572.1671.8061.4431.155

+398%

+240%

20172016201520142013201220112010OTT VoIPOTT Video

Source: IDATE - World Internet Services Markets 12/2013

+540%

2017

43.186

2016

39.409

2015

34.772

2014

29.692

2013

23.916

2012

18.277

2011

11.847

2010

6.752

Social Network Advertising revenuesSocial Network Paid revenues

OTT Monetization Strategies

OTT Impact

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High quality content and higher traffic push a heavy load on the network and shift the perception on the Quality of Service (QoS) offered by the bit pipe, i.e. the operator transporting the data

Most OTTs do not (or only partially) generate revenues from their services but harm operator’s traditional ones

OTTs are viewed as the preferred service providers and no longer the operators

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Trends and challenges: The impact of revenue squeezers

Voice, Messaging and Video OTTs can be seen as revenue squeezers, their services do not only impact traditional Telco revenues but pressure the network infrastructure.

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Video / TV ServicesVoice and Messaging Services Revenue Squeezers

OTTs offering competing services

with free(mium) business models or

high capacity demanding services

Greatly harming operator traditional revenue streams or resulting in heavy

infrastructureinvestment to support QoS on OTT service

Source: Ovum 11/13 Consumer VoIP ForecastSource: Ovum 09/13 Mobile Messaging Traffic and Revenues Forecast

Mobile messaging

~ 49,0,6 bn US $ in SMS revenues lost to OTT players in 2014 (globally)

Video is expected to contribute the single largest portion of mobile data traffic, at over 70% by 2016”

Trends and challenges: The potential of revenue generators

Several OTTs can be identified as revenue creators, as their digital business evolve and services get pushed into the market generating revenue streams unknown to operators.

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Cloud, Games and Music ServicesSocial and e-Commerce Services Revenue Creators

OTTs offering innovative services

with compelling business models

based on Business Intelligence data

Most of business models are driven by

advertisement revenues built on the

basis of customer profile knowledge


Regulatory Challenge: Deregulation vs. Regulation of OTT?

Trends and challenges: The current regulatory imbalance

The current trends and developments in the OTT universe causes regulatory authorities all over the world to struggle with the question of how to treat OTT players adequately.

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Growing Imbalance between Telecom and OTT universe

Limited/ no regulation

Internet based standards (IETF)

Rapid growth Low, scalable investment

Limited direct employment

IP based Disruptive models (free, freemium,

ad based etc)

OTT| Communication Universe

Heavily regulated industry

Telco based standards (ITU)

Limited/ slowing growth High pre-investment required

Significant employer

Moving towards IP Traditional business models

Telecom Universe

Trends and challenges: The need to develop adequate response strategies

As a new regulatory balance is not yet in sight, operators need to act quickly on their own to cater for these challenges and develop adequate OTT response strategies.

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Network operator’s business models are determined by regulatory requirements

OTT Players are usually free of such limitations

Current market setups have not yet adapted to the new competitive situation

In addition, many Telco operators lack the necessary “innovation speed and readiness” and run into an innovation backlog against OTTs

This causes competition to be highly dysfunctional to the benefit of the increasingly dominant OTT players

The result is a significant loss of revenues in core services while costs for network expansion remain high

Operators need to act quickly to cater for these challenges as a new regulatory balance is not yet in sight.

Comparison of market conditions The need for action

Regulation Licensed network operator

Subject to license and license feeLicensing

SLAs are included in the service license

Quality of Service

Interconnection is mandatedInterconnection

Usually subject to universal service obligation

UniversalService

Subject to (enforceable) consumer protection policy

Consumer protection

Usually part of a license condition

Legal interception

Subject to national tax regimeTaxation

OTT player

No service license required

No quality requirements

No interconnect requirements

Not subject to univ. service regime

No or little enforcement power

Country dependent

Service dependent


Results

Conclusion

Trends and challenges: Operators at the crossroads

Operators need to carefully decide how to deal with OTT players as their different types of business models may determine the sustainable future of operators business.

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OTTs’ business models develop at a fast pace and change the traditional revenue split

Advertisement is the main revenue source of many OTTs.

Paid subscriptions start to work for larger customer base OTTs

Fremium apps have thrived as a innovative monetization strategy

Cloud storage as an add-on service has ramped profitability

Business Intelligence is the most powerful tool of content distributors

Best-effort free services cannibalize traditional revenues

Flexibility and innovation are the only way operators can monetize on future opportunities

Operators face a crossroad regarding OTT impact on their business OTT Business Models

Service deployment over time

Prof

itabi

lity

leve

l ove

r tim

e

OTT Business Model Refinement & Maturity

Strategic decisionneeded

OTT Perspective Operator Perspective

Voice and Messaging

High Bandwidth Video

Content

1. Overview and introduction2. Trends and challenges3. Possible scenarios for Telco operators Overview of applicable response strategies

Assessment of adequate response strategies

4. Selected case studies5. Detecon’s approach6. Detecon’s references and publications7. Authors and contact information

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Possible scenarios for Telco operators: Overview of applicable response strategies

In principle, Telco operators can choose between three strategic directives to mitigate the impact of OTT players on their core business: Defend, Attack and Co-Operate.

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Response Strategies for

Telco operators“ATTACK” - Strategy

Emulate service(s) of OTT player(s)

“ATTACK” - Strategy

Block OTT player(s) and service(s)

“CO-OPERATE” - Strategy

Partner with OTT player(s) and benefit from service(s)


Invest in or acquire OTT player(s) and gain access

to OTT service(s)

“DEFEND” – Strategy

Neutralize effect of OTT service(s)

Overview of the most common response strategies for Telco operators


Sponsored Data ApproachOTTs subsidize user data

Possible scenarios for Telco operators: Assessment of adequate response strategies

Both “Defend” and “Attack” strategies have implications on the value propositions towards the customers and should therefore be assessed carefully.

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Pro: Can reduce the usage of OTT services and content or stimulate purchase of additional capacity (download volume) beyond the usage cap

Contra: Increased administrative efforts and decreased customer experience. Soft cap only reduces usage, but does not fully stop it


Neutralize effect of OTT service(s) on network





Pro: This strategy may limit the up take of OTT services on a network and shift usage towards Telco services.

Contra: Completely banning OTT services on a network or making these services unattractive by adding an additional fees can also cause customer dissatisfaction and churn

Pro: If successful, emulated services can generate additional revenue streams or reduce the risk of losing revenues to OTTs

Contra: Involves additional investments and time consuming R&D work with the risk of market failure due to strong position of established players

Example(s)

Telkom SA introduced soft cap for fixed BB data volume (20GB)

AT&T, Vodacom, DT have soft caps on mobile BB plans

AT&T and DT blocked Skype calls over 3G/4G network

DT offers VoIP over 3G usage with special tariff

China Telecom started proprietary messaging app. ”YiChat”

Several European and Asian operators launched “joyn”

Strategy Assessment

Possible scenarios for Telco operators: Assessment of adequate response strategies

As recent examples have shown, operators aim for increased co-operation with OTTs in order to leverage the additional revenue potential and expand their service portfolio.

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Pro: The increasing amount of OTT content on the network is paid for (“sponsored”) by the content provider and does not count towards the customer’s data plan

Contra: May create regulatory constraints and limitations in the context of the “net neutrality” discussion. Benefits large content providers (increased sponsoring) over small players




Invest in or acquire OTT player(s) and gain access

to OTT service(s)


Partner with OTT player(s) and benefit from

service(s)

Pro: Acquire OTT service and content providers to expand service base, get immediate access to (paying) subscribers, benefit from brand and secure revenues

Contra: Depending on Service category, costly network upgrades are still required. ROI on OTT service questionable due to potential competition

Pro: Access to OTT brand popularity can increase customer numbers and drive sales of data plans with high(er) ARPU

Contra: Direct cannibalization of core services depending on type of partnership leading to revenue loss in specific segments

Example(s)Strategy Assessment

AT&T recently launched sponsored data platform

DT investigating a similar approach

Verizon acquired Intel Media, a business division developing Cloud TV products

Airtel Nigeria and MTN Cameroon launch Whatsappdata bundle

Vodafone UK bundles free “Sky Go” into LTE tariff

Content

1. Overview and introduction2. Trends and challenges3. Possible scenarios for Telco operators4. Selected case studies Overview of selected African OTT players

Overview of selected case studies Case Study 1 – MTN Play

Case Study 2 – Airtel Nigeria and WhatsApp

Case Study 3 – Vodafone Qatar and “Go” by OSN

5. Detecon’s approach6. Detecon’s references and publications7. Authors and contact information

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All mayor Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) are still located in the USA, Northern Europe and South-East Asia

The majority of content is still hosted outside of Africa, the are only a low number of Internet Exchange Points (IXPs) and therefore almost no local content

Nascent “local” OTT providers such as Saya or Mxit are directly competing with well-established global players and have difficulties reaching a critical mass of users

In addition, the primary OTT services in Africa still are “low-bandwidth” services such as messaging due to low penetration of broadband internet

Satellite Television dominates the TV sector leaving, causing high market entry barriers for OTT Video providers

The Africa and Middle East OTT Landscape

Selected Case Studies: Overview of selected African OTT players

In Africa, a limited number of OTTs is still in a nascent phase with only few subscribers. Global players hold the dominant position and attract regional operators as partners.

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“Mxit”South Africa Messaging Provider - ~ 7.5 Mio Subscribers worldwideKey Advantage – works on regular feature phones

Rationale

“eTV”South African Video Provider - Currently ~ 12,000 unique viewers in South Africa using its “e On Demand” serviceKey Advantage: offers over-the-top video on-demand and OTT live TV

“Saya”Ghanaen Messaging Provider - ~ Subscribers in 35 countriesKey Advantage – works on regular feature phones

“IC Flix”Dubai based unlimited streaming platform Available in UAE and Neighboring countries

Cooperate Strategy – Vodafone Qatar

OTT Mobile Video

Vodafone Qatar has partnered with ‘Go by OSN’ to give customers access to a large selection of movies and series

The service is currently available on PC’s and Macs, Smartphonesand tablets and subscribers can take advantage of dual-device screening

Vodafone is expecting to drive the update of its recently launched LTE service through this value proposition

Selected Case Studies: Overview

The following case studies were chosen to assess the impact of OTTs on African Telco operators and derive region specific strategies for operators based on current trends.

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OTT Messaging

Partnership between OTT messaging player WhatsApp and Airtel Nigeria

Exclusive WhatsApp-branded mobile data plan from Airtel to compensate SMS revenue loss and increase brand perception

The partnership has been extended regionally to other AirtelMarkets (e.g. India) and to include other OTT platforms such as Twitter and Facebook

OTT Video, Gaming, Music

MTN creates the content platform MTN Play to reduce usage of OTT content and increase brand perception

Subscribers get mobile access to content such as games, news wallpapers, ringtones, music, and videos

MTN Play is now available to MTN subscribers in 22 Markets in Africa and the Middle East

Attack Strategy – MTN play Cooperate Strategy – Airtel Nigeria

South Africa Nigeria Qatar

Case Study I – “MTN Play”

Operations:

Mobile operations in 22 countries

ISP in 13 countries

Subscriber information

Total mobile subscribers: 160,785,231 (March 2014)

3G subscribers: 25,277,615 (March 2014)

LTE subscribers: 500,760 (March 2014)

Financial (annual figures for 2013 (US$)):

Total revenue: $14.12 Billion

Opex: $9.93 Billion

Capex: $3.12 Billion

EBITDA : $6.18 Billion

EBITDA margin: 43.8%

MTN Group Footprint

Case Study I – MTN Play

With presence in 24 countries and with mobile operations in 22, the MTN Group is the continent’s leading provider of integrated ICT services in Africa and the Middle East.

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MTN Group Information

MTN CameroonMarket share: 60.7%Number of subscribers: 9,236,000Technology: 2G and WiMAX

MTN NigeriaMarket share: 44.9%Number of subscribers: 57,224,316Technology: 2G, 3G and WiMAX

MTN GhanaMarket share: 45.5%Number of subscribers: 13,054,981Technology: 2G and 3G

MTN South AfricaMarket share: 33.5%Number of subscribers: 24,875,000Technology: 2G, 3G and LTE

MTN Presence – Mobile Network and/or ISP

Selected MTN Mobile Operators

MTN subsidiaries chosen for case study analysis

Source: TeleGeography GlobalComms Database March 2014


In its largest markets Nigeria and South Africa, MTN faces strong declines in voice ARPUs and revenues but is expecting strong mobile growth rates across all markets.

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Mobile Voice Revenues of selected MTN Markets* Mobile Data Revenues of selected MTN Markets*

499 519 540 562480443

4,564,744,925,115,50

0200400600

0246

-4%

2017

4,40

201620152014201320122011

MTN

Cam

eroo

n

637 687 742 801590539469

3,803,853,913,964,174,12

0

500

1000

0246

-2%

2017

3,75

201620152014201320122011

MTN

Gha

na

4270 3873 3828 35593691

4,605,245,967,358,79

0200040006000

0

5

10-14%

2017

3,553309

2016

4,04

3432

20152014201320122011

MTN

Nig

eria

1898 1806 17191995235623144,004,535,135,826,60

8,269,60

0100020003000

0

5

10-14%

2017

1636

201620152014201320122011

MTN

Sou

th A

fric

a

ARPU in US $

Revenue in Mio. US $

ARPU in US $


ARPU in US $


ARPU in US $


Voice ARPUVoice Revenues

77 100594635

0,770,640,540,450,370,26

0501001501.0

0.5

0.0

20162015201420132012

21

2011

+25%

2017

MTN

Cam

eroo

n

517313189

2,401,59

1,050,700,460,290,130200400600

0123 +62%

2017201620152014

115

2013

69

2012

38

2011

15MTN

Gha

na46533236

7,274,58

2,891,821,150,930,290200040006000

0

5

10 +71%

201720162015

2104

2014

1284

2013

739

2012

492

2011

141M

TN N

iger

ia

1008 1228 1471 1733814590

1,891,581,331,120,940,66

0

1000

2000

0

1

2

20152014201320122011

428

+23%

20172016

MTN

Sou

th A

fric

a

ARPU in US $


ARPU in US $


ARPU in US $


ARPU in US $


Data ARPUData Revenues

Source: Strategy Analytics 2014, * Detecon Forecast for years 2014 – 2017 Source: Strategy Analytics 2014, * Detecon Forecast for years 2014 – 2017

n/an/a


The network infrastructure expansion needed for this mobile data growth hits MTN’s EBITDA Margins, as CAPEX can not be recovered if most revenues flow to OTT service.

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MTN needs to significantly expand its network infrastructure in order to accommodate the growing demand for mobile data usage

Mobile Data also accounts for significant revenue growth, but the majority of the content is provided by OTT players “free of charge” that “freeride” on MTN’s network while benefitting from the direct customer interaction

MTN acts as a bit pipe for OTT players while facing significant network cost (CAPEX + OPEX) that are increasingly difficult to recover

To counter this trend, the MTN Group chose to develop its own content distribution network labeled “MTN Play”

Development of EBITDA and EBITDA Margin (2011 – 2017)* Rationale

260,22254,31248,53242,88237,36226,69209,09

40,541,642,84448,3 45,247,8

0100200300100

50

02015 2016

-3%

201720132011 2012 2014

MTN

Cam

eroo

n

428380338300267231188

40,0039,6039,2038,9038,70 40,30 0200400600

0

50

100

201620152014201320122011

37,90

+1%

2017

MTN

Gha

na

2506255526052657270926942873

51,5053,1054,6056,2057,9059,8063,100100020003000

0

50

100

2016

-3%

201720152014201320122011

MTN

Nig

eria

1218122312281233123813351253

39,2039,6040,0040,4040,8041,7042,00

050010001500

0204060

20122011 20142013 2015 2017

-1%

2016

MTN

Sou

th A

fric

a

Marginin %

EBITDA in Mio. US $

Marginin %

EBITDA in Mio. US $

Marginin %

EBITDA in Mio. US $

Marginin %

EBITDA in Mio. US $

EBITDA Margin as % of RevenueEBITDA

Source: Strategy Analytics 2014, * Detecon Forecast for years 2014 – 2017


MTN Play is a digital platform developed and operated by MTN which offers subscribers a variety of OTT content which they can access on multiple devices.

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MTN Play was launched in 2009 in South Africa and expanded to other MTN markets

MTN Play is currently offered in 21 out of the 22 countries in which MTN it has mobile operations

MTN subscribers can access content which includes music, sports, news and information , applications, games, entertainment, social networking, as well as various streaming services (e.g. Mobile DVB-T)

The content offered on MTN play is platform-independent and tailored to each MTN market with options such as local soccer team updates and local music available

Background Using MTN Play

A range of mobile handsets and operating systems, (basic feature phones to smartphones and tablets) is catered for by MTN Play

The option of either subscribing to content or purchasing once off is possible

There is flexibility of cost to the subscriber as there are a variety of services to choose from

Both prepaid and postpaid customers can use the service

MTN Mobile Money, e-vouchers, loyalty points or airtime can be used to purchase content

User downloads application / access via the internet

User subscribesto content / purchases once off

Billing viadeduction of

airtime balance, voucher, mobile

money etc.


MTN Risks

MTN Benefits


MTN holds the necessary market position to monetize on OTT content through MTN Play but needs to mitigate the risks resulting from the operation of its “own” platform.

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MTN shifts monetization of OTT content from OTT providers back to MTN by offering third party content and charging the subscribers based on their usage

The resulting increased data usage translates into higher data revenues out of which MTN can achieve a larger share

Strong USP compared to competitors by providing easy access to local content to a large target group (device independent)

Synergies exist with other MTN products such as mobile money which can be used to pay for content

Significant potential for customer analytics (data mining) that can contribute to targeted advertising

Opportunity to partner exclusively with other service providers (e.g. current partnership with DSTV)

Significant subscribers base due to MTN presence in 22 markets in CASA and MENA region

Increased Operational Expenditures (OPEX) for the initial development and constant maintenance of the MTN Play platform

The investments into MTN play need to be backed by strong marketing initiatives to reach a critical mass of subscribers

OTTs continue to provide attractive content free of charge resulting in a direct competition between MTN and OTTs

In order to provide attractive content, partnerships with content providers need to be negotiated, more attractive content will be more expensive

In addition, legal and regulatory constraints with regards to providing local content need to be taken into account – specific local content needs to be sources individually per country

MTN Play revenues are limited to MTNs subscriber base of currently ~ 160 Million users as external access to the platform is not possible


Case Study II – Airtel Nigeria and Whatsapp

The Nigerian mobile market is the largest in Africa by subscribers, boasting over 126 million active cellular users at the end of April 2014

Country size km²: 923,768

Total population: 174,507,539 (2013)

Active Mobile Sims: 126,958,904 (2014)

Teledensity : 92.42%

Communications Regulatory Body: Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC)

Total Mobile Data Subscribers: ……65,813,890 (Q1 2014)

Total Voice Revenue: $ 7,253m (2013)

Total Data Revenue: $ 1,352m (2013)

GDP 2013 (USD Billion): $ 283.7

GDP per capita 2013 (USD): $1,700

Overview of major Nigerian telco operators

Case Study II – Airtel Nigeria and WhatsApp

The Nigerian telecommunications market has the highest number of subscribers in Africa, with 4 major operators providing services to over 126 million active SIM cards.

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Country Information

MTN NigeriaTotal Number of Subscribers: 58,355,855Mobile data Subscribers: 33,835,981 (Apr ’14)

Airtel NigeriaTotal Number of Subscribers: 25,475,672Mobile data Subscribers: 11,962,651 (Apr ’14)

Glo MobileTotal Number of Subscribers: 24,015,713Mobile data Subscribers: 13,221,754 (Apr ’14)

Etisalat NigeriaTotal Number of Subscribers: 19,111,664Mobile data Subscribers: 6,793,504 (Apr ’14)

Source: Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) Industry Overview 2014 Source: TeleGeography GlobalComms Database 2014Pyramid research Mobile Forecast Q2 2014


Airtel Nigeria was the first mobile operator to roll out GSM services in the country, now having the 2nd largest subscriber base with 28.6 million customers.

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Airtel Nigeria was the first mobile operator to roll out GSMservices in the country in 2001 (2 days before MTN)

The company was originally founded as Econet WirelessNigeria in 2001, named after the South African holdingcompany Econet Wireless which held a 5% stake and acontract to run the Cellco

After several changes of ownership, Zain Group approved anoffer for the majority of its African assets by Bharti Airtel inJune 2010. The Cellco was rebranded under the Airtelmoniker by the end of 2010

Court cases between Econet and Bharti Airtel about Econet’sremaining 5% share of ownership are still ongoing

In April 2014, Airtel Nigeria revealed it had invested overUSD1.7 billion to expand network capacity and improvenetwork and service quality since Bharti Airtel took over in2010

Airtel Nigeria plans to launch LTE in 2015. Trial tests wererun successfully in Lagos mid December 2012 with plans toincrease 4G coverage to other major cities

Airtel Nigeria’s subscriber base only recently surpassedNigeria's second national operator (SNO) Globacom in thefirst quarter of 2014, turning it into the 2nd largest operator inthe country, behind MTN Nigeria

Business Description

Number of Subscriptions and Market Share (m,%)

Airtel Nigeria Revenue and ARPU Development

19

2011 2012 2013 2014

36.6

21%

2015

34.3

20%

2016

31.6

20%

2017

28.6

20%

24.8

20%

23.1

21%

18.0

ConnectionsMarket share

1529 1581 1635 1690147914651338

3,914,224,905,28

5,936,61

0

500

1000

1500

2000

01234567

2012 201520142011 2013

4,55

20172016

-8%

ARPURevenues

ARPU in US $

Source: GSMA 2014 ,Telegeography 2014, Detecon Analysis 2014



With the expected uptake of OTT voice and messaging users in Nigeria, SMS traffic on Airtel’s mobile network as well as SMS ARPUs are expected to decrease.

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xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Source: Analysys Mason OTT worldwide forecasts 2013, * Detecon Forecast for years2014 – 2017

Nigerian OTT Voice and Messaging users (millions)

25

5

0

10

15

20

2011

+43%

201720162015201420132012

Voice Messaging

Development of SMS Traffic on Airtel Nigeria Network

1156121712811348141914501435

0

500

1000

1500

2014201320122011 20162015 2017

-4%SMS Traffic in Million

OTT Users in Million

Selected quantified data drivers

1638 1670 1704 173816061402

5,395,505,615,725,845,91

0

500

1000

1500

2000

0

2

4

6

-2%

2017201620152014201320122011

Voic

e Se

rvic

es

238 286 343

2,60

1,83

0,32

0

100

200

300

400

0

1

2

3+52%

201720162015

1,29

2014

0,91

198

2013

0,64165

2012

83

2011D

ata

Serv

ices

76 77 79 817468

0,250,250,260,260,270,27

0

50

100

0.0

0.3

0.1

0.2

-2%

2017201620152014201320122011

SMS

Serv

ices

ARPU in US $


ARPU in US $


ARPU in US $


Source: Strategy Analytics 2014, * Detecon Forecast for years 2014 – 2017

n/a

n/a

n/a


By partnering with WhatsApp, Airtel intends to reduce the negative revenue impact of OTT messaging by monetizing WhatsApp usage through specific tariff plans.

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Airtel Nigeria’s partnership with WhatsApp Inc. offers all Airtel prepaid subscribers a WhatsApp branded data plan that provides unlimited access to WhatsAppusage for a monthly subscription fee

This partnership is a first in Nigeria and is currently exclusive to Airtel

Subscribers who activate Airtel data bundles of 200MB or more (up to 15 GB per month) also get unlimited access to WhatsApp messaging without having to pay for WhatsApp usage via deduction of airtime

All core WhatsApp features are included in the bundle:

Instant messaging and Multi-user messaging

File sharing

Location sharing

Message broadcasting

Audio messaging

Airtel also provides a WTF (Whatsapp, Twitter and Facebook) bundle that offers unlimited access to all three OTT platforms

Airtel Nigeria and WhatsApp partnership Airtel Nigeria “WhatsApp” and “WTF” bundle tariffs

Monthly subscription fee for Airtel WhatsApp bundle is: 100 Nigerian Naira (0.62 US $)

Monthly subscription plan for 200MB, which includes unlimited WhatsApp usage, (i.e. Usage is not taken off data volume) is: 1,000 Nigerian Naira (6.14 US $)

Monthly subscription fee for Airtel WTF bundle is: 200 Nigerian Naira (1.23 US $)

For WhatsApp activity after expiration of bundle subscription, Airtel customers will be billed based at “Pay as you use” rates of 5kobo (0.003 US $) per Kilobyte


Airtel Nigeria Risks

Airtel Nigeria Benefits


The WhatsApp bundle may not be able to fully compensate shrinking SMS ARPUs but Airtel is expected to benefit from the improved brand perception through the partnership.

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Improved brand perception due to marketing of Airteland WhatsApp as “unique and exclusive” partnership

Stronger USP compared to Airtel’s local and regional competitors such as MTN, Glo or Etisalat

Unlimited WhatsApp usage (outside of tariff plans with more than 200MB per month) can be used as a sales argument for up-selling of higher value tariff plans to existing customers

Increase in subscribers numbers due to attractiveness of OTT social messaging bundles

Expansion of WhatsApp partnership into other Airtelmarkets such as India with significantly larger subscriber base

The partnership can facilitate the expansion of the WhatsApp bundle to include other OTT Services such as Twitter or FaceBook (“WTF Bundle”) or even other platforms in the future

Direct cannibalization of traditional SMS revenues as unlimited WhatsApp usage can be subscribed on a monthly basis for ~ 0.62 US $ (100 Naira) whereas 200 SMS (to all operators within Nigeria) are sold on a package price basis of ~ 1.20 US $ (200 Naira)

Lack of targeted advertising opportunities as WhatsApp explicitly does not “gather” user data for customer analytics purposes and “ad selling”

Depending on uptake of WhatsApp bundle, data traffic on Airtels’ network could increase significantly, particularly if WhatsApp is used for sharing media such as pictures

Cost of partnership, e.g. paying license fees to WhatsApp for exclusive advertisement of the Airtel “co-branded” service

Due to the “No Advertising” policy of WhatsApp, the explicit marketing of the partnership is one-sided (Airtelonly) and thereby reaching a reduced audience


Case Study III – Vodafone Qatar and “Go” by OSN

The Qatari mobile market is already highly developed, experiencing over 200% penetration with ≈50% of data connections

Country size km²: 11,437

Total population: 1,900,000 (2013)

Active Mobile Sims: 3,920,327 (2014)

Teledensity : 203.0%

Communications Regulatory Body: Supreme Council for Information & Communications Technology (ictQATAR)

Total Mobile Data Subscribers: ……1,840,000 (Q1 2014)

Total Voice Revenue: $ 643.9m (2013)

Total Data Revenue: $ 153m (2013)

GDP 2013 (USD Billion): $ 188.8

GDP per capita 2013 (USD): $98,800

Overview of major Qatart telco operators


The Qatari telecommunications market develops in an incredibly fast pace with sky-high penetration rates. Two operators run to differentiate and introduce new services.

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Country Information

OoredooTotal Number of Subscribers: 2,593,327Mobile data Subscribers: 1,075,000 (Apr ’14)

Vodafone QatarTotal Number of Subscribers: 1,327,000Mobile data Subscribers: 765,000 (Apr ’14)

Source: TeleGeography GlobalComms Database 2014 Source: Analysis Mason 2014


Mobile is a key driver for OTT video demand, Smartphones are significantly driving daily video usage and OTT take-up in the entire Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.

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Video viewing on handsets is common in MENA. Surveysshow that more than 60% of subscribers in developed MENAmarkets with data-enabled handsets use mobile video

Consumption of free OTT content is more prevalent than paidcontent, such as catch-up TV. YouTube usage reported byGoogle showed that playbacks in the region doubled y-o-y

Local OTT providers have also gained traction. Istikana, anOTT video provider with a freemium model, reached 1 millionvisits within 4 months of launching its service in March 2011,and has exceeded 100,000 users a day, after expanding itssupport to include portable devices, such as tablets

Increased take-up of Smartphones is encouraging mobileInternet users in MENA to use data-driving services such asvideo

As OTT players move from a free ad-supported to a paidmodel, they are likely to rely on operators’ support todistribute and monetise content

Operators need to prepare their infrastructure and positionthe services attractively (for example, as part of data bundles)to increase the likelihood of consumers paying for them

The video formats are demanding in terms of both bandwidthand capacity, so operators need to deploy networks that candeliver this level of performance and maintain an acceptablelevel of quality of service

Background Information

Mobile and Smartphone Penetration in MENA

Fixed Broadband Connections in MENA

110

31

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017SmartphonesMobile

0

5.000.000

10.000.000

15.000.000

20.000.000

25.000.000+16%

2017201620152014201320122011201020092008

FiberDSLConnections

Penetration rate in %

Source: Detecon Research 2014 Source: Analysis Mason 2014; TeleGeography GlobalComms Database 2014


MENA’s OTT video landscape differs from the rest of the world, as local players have had room to grow without intensive pressure from established international players.

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The media content creation and distribution market in MENAis dominated by a relatively small number of satellite TVbroadcasters (such as MBC) and pay-TV providers (such asOSN)

In the absence of competing international OTT providers suchas Netflix, these large regional media groups have used OTTto consolidate their market dominance

A new breed of home-grown OTT players has also emergedduring the past 4 years. These companies use cloud-basedstreaming and storage capabilities to quickly deploy digitalaggregation and distribution services. These players havemanaged to quickly reach consumers across the wholeregion using the web as the distribution platform, andtargeting niche segments

These emerging OTT players are increasingly making theirservices accessible from a variety of devices, such as mobilehandsets, tablets and smart TVs, because they haverecognised the importance of delivering a multi-screenexperience

The integration of social networking features such asrecommending and sharing helped attract MENA’s (mostlyyoung) mobile and online users

Most of these services are freely accessible (with advertisingsupport), but there is growing interest in building sustainablebusiness models based on subscription fees

MENA OTT Video Landscape

Source: Analysis Mason ,Telegeography 2014, Detecon Analysis 2014

Multi Access


The Qatari demand for advanced data offering can already be observed from the uptake of new services and technologies. Video services are a clear path towards revenue rise.

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xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Source: Analysys Mason 2014

Qatari Mobile Users (millions)

Connection Type (millions)

Video Demand on Qatari Market

383 405 427 449

288243

179118

05010015020025030035040045030

25

20

15

10

5

0%20172016201520142013201220112010

+30%

Source: Analysis Mason 2014, * Detecon Forecast for years 2014 – 2017

4.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.0

2G

3G

4G

1Q14

2.1

1.8

0.1

4Q13

2.1

1.7

3Q13

2.1

1.6

2Q13

2.1

1.4

1Q13

2.1

1.3

4Q12

2.0

1.2

3Q12

2.0

1.1

2Q12

2.0

1.0

4.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.0

2014

0.6

3.3

2013

0.5

3.3

2012

0.4

2.8

2011

0.3

2.6

2010

0.3

2.3

2009

0.2

2.0

PostpaidPrepaid

Data Share of Total RevenuesData Revenues

Introduction of OTT Video Offerings (Go by OSN)

Data Share in %

Revenues in Mio. US $

Connections in 000

500

400

300

200

100

0

+25%

2017

156

462

2016

139

417

2015

122

2014

96

338

2013

93

301

2012

76217

2011

55161

2010

32142

372

IPTV ConnectionsBroadband Connections


Vodafone has found in OSN an opportunity to differentiate and attract costumers to its newly deployed 4G network. OSN brings the benefits of a establish media corporation.

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Vodafone has partnered with ‘Go by OSN’ to give customers access to a huge selection of movies and series

The partnership is beneficial to Vodafone since it works with an experienced local partner which holds a large media portfolio (content) and network

The content available reaches out to the Arab nationals as well as to international viewers

This service has been made available with the rollout of Vodafone’s 4G network in the country, clearly indicating the necessity for investment to support such data-intense applications

Paulo Ferreira, Head of Commercial and Digital, OSN, stated that: “We launched ‘Go by OSN’ last month and the response has been overwhelming. There is no other service in the market that has multiple Hollywood studio deals which enables ‘Go’ to play host to the most critically-acclaimed and diversified Western and Arabic content. Coupled with Vodafone’s seamless 4G network”

Vodafone and Go partnership Vodafone Tariffs and Plans

Go,’ OSN’s online TV service, offers Qatar residents access to entertainment including Hollywood blockbusters, local Arabic productions, award-winning TV series and popular kids content. The service is currently available on PC’s and Macs, smartphonesand tablets and subscribers can take advantage of dual-device screening

With up to a 6 month trial followed by QR37 (10.16 US $) a month, customers choosing ‘Go by OSN’ can access over 500 movies, 150 series and over 100 kids and family shows

Subscribers can also enjoy up to 8 GB of FREE video streaming from ‘Go by OSN’ every month


Vodafone Qatar Risks

Vodafone Qatar Benefits


The partnership shows to be promising as it taps a market demand just at the event of a 4G introduction, expected to offer a good service with an acceptable mobile QoE.

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The new video service offering bundled with the 4G network is an important step to attract new customers and to differentiate itself from the market leader Ooredoo

The choice of OSN as a partner brings many benefits as it is already an established company in the media business and holds a wide network of partners itself

The extended portfolio which covers both the Arab and international content is very appealing to a market like as Qatar with its large population of expatriates

Since international OTT media players are not entering the Arab markets, the service can experience a controlled growth and adapt to the demands of the region

Video services has shown to be one of the top demands from the MENA region which will clearly have a positive impact on (mobile) data usage

Through a smart business model Vodafone can greatly benefit and monetize from this partnership with OSN. It also opens doors for smart bundles in case Vodafone grows a fixed access network in the future

On the group level, Vodafone can use the experience gained in Qatar to roll-out similar partnerships in other subsidiaries

Vodafone needs to strategize on the business model evolution as it needs to assure the return on its investment for the newly deployed 4G network

The price per MB is not likely to grow but the traffic will grow at a fast pace, nevertheless this might not be sufficient to push profitability up

Using a partner as OSN can provide access and expertise which is currently not in place at Vodafone, but the right interaction points and knowledge transfer need to take place

The magnitude of data explosion with innovative services has been always unpredictable and the demand for it can overload the new network and push for unforeseen investments

The partnership could trigger Ooredoo to also negotiate and launch a similarly attractive partnership and overtake Vodafone in this segment, due to its significantly larger existing subscriber base


Content

1. Overview and introduction2. Trends and challenges3. Possible scenarios for Telco operators4. Selected case studies5. Detecon’s approach6. Detecon’s references and publications7. Authors and contact information

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Our Approach

Detecon proposes a phased approach to assess the impact of OTTs on the business of our clients and develop an actionable response strategy tailored to their needs.

1 2 3Analyze and assesssituation

Define and recommendstrategy

Design and Implement action plan

Detecon’s project approach

Competitive Analysis and Trend Scouting

Quantify impact of OTT services on core business and identify both revenue squeezers and creators

Analyze and scout OTT environment and cluster key OTT players into “threats” and “opportunities”

Definition of OTT Response Strategy

Define high impact response strategy based on consideration of all risks and benefits

Recommendation of client’s strategy and definition of corresponding prerequisites for implementation

Development of Implementation plan

Definition of client’s specific implementation steps and timelines, action items and required resources

Translation into detailed Roll-out/ implementation plan including Work packages and Deliverables

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Project Methodology: Competitive Analysis and Trend Scouting

We support our client in understanding their OTT environment by assessing the impact of OTTs on their services and by scouting emerging players, technologies and trends.

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Detecon can also assist clients in the following areas:*

Innovation Scouting and Opportunity Evaluation

Silicon Valley Innovation Workshops

Detecon will analyze global developments with regards to service usage and map them against operator portfolio:

Global and regional trends in operator impact area

Client specific trends in OTT impact area

Competitive Environment and Impact Analysis OTT Services Trend and Innovation Scouting

Mobile Messaging by service type*

0

20

40

60

Mes

sage

s (tr

illion

s)

201820172016201520142013201220112010SMSOperator IP messagingOTT IP messaging

6.0316.2736.2896.276

1.9981.7001.3061.072

Q1/12Q1/11Q1/10 Q1/13OPEXData Revenue CAPEXVoice Revenue

Revenues and Expenditures in Mn. US $

1 2 3

* Can also be executed by the Detecon ICT innovation office in the US Silicon Valley

Project Methodology: Definition of OTT Response Strategy

Based on the competitive analysis Detecon and the client will define the best response strategy, including a customized actionable framework supporting the chosen strategy.

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Selection of Preferable OTT Response Strategy

Development of a customized actionable framework (for chosen partner strategy)

Action Areas for Telco operators






Partner with OTT player(s) and benefit from service(s)


Invest in or acquire OTT player(s) and gain access to OTT service(s)


Neutralize effect of OTT service(s)



Identify suitable strategic response(e.g. Partner with OTT Player)

Partner selection

Analyze potential Partner

Evaluate potential Partner, incl. Due Diligence (if possible)

Select and Engage Partner One-Pager Final decision portfolio

management

1 Partner relationship management

Strategic Business Planning

Joint Workshops Portfolio details, Road maps & Trends Sort of services

&capabilities Revenue Sharing First & second line support

2 Deal realization

First deals/customers identified

Pre-sales support from vendor

Generation bid of quantity Technical support records Responsibility matrix Pricing

Project management

3 Partner program management

Quality assurance Product quality Service capabilities Customer satisfaction Loyalty

Performance Review Financials Target achievements

4

Establish partnership type according to services and positioning of partner

Define target picture with regards to revenues, subscribers, costs, etc.

1 2 3

Project Methodology: Development of Implementation plan

The successful implementation of the chosen strategy relies on clearly defined targets and the translation into dedicated programs supported by detailed program plans.

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Detecon will develop a roll-out and implementation plan based on international frameworks and best practices

Detailed Program, interdependencies and resource plan

Optional tool-driven implementation support

Based on the defined strategy Detecon will further detail the strategic objectives in operational targets and programs

Managed programs to support strategy achievement

Each program is comprised of a set of projects

Prioritized and client specific implementation steps Roll-Out and Implementation Plan

1 2 3

Why Detecon

Detecon is a cross sector Management & ICT consulting company combining regulatory and technology expertise with a profound understanding of the business environment.

Diff

eren

tiatio

n Fa

ctor

s

Integrated Business, Technology and Regulatory Expertise

Strategy and Implementation capabilities

30+ years of ICT and Mgmt. Consulting experience

Profound Regional Expertise

Our experts understand Telco business , the competitive environment, future challenges and trends and will derive the best possible solution for the client

Interdisciplinary teams able to assess all impacts of OTT activities on the Telco value chain.

Independent advisor understanding both the Telco and OTT universe

Holistic analyses or specialized deep dive, according to client needs

Detecon has the necessary skill-set and expertise to develop custom-tailored actionable OTT strategies

Long-standing global track record with regards to strategy implementation together with the client

Proof of concept during implementation phase

OTT Strategies that truly work and impact the business

Detecon delivered 7.000+ projects covering all areas of Telco business, setting trends and shaping the industry

Detecon continues to be the ICT consultant of choice for operators across the globe

Experts with insights from different projects, clients and industries

Access to a database of international benchmarks and best practices

Full understanding of client’s reality of business and local market challenges

Profound knowledge of African Telco industry shared by international experts from 30+ countries

Consideration of client and region-specific needs

Project team knows client’s business environment

Detecon LeverageDetecon Leverage Client Benefit

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Content


Tbd…

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Snapshot of our latest publications and studies on OTT players

Publications and References

Over the past years Detecon has continuously published opinion papers and books , delivered project studies and presented research results on future key conferences.

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Detecon Management Report (DMR)

03/2011 – ICT 2032

“Cash Cow Information”

Success Factors for Information-centric Companies in 2032

03/2014 – Study

Policy and RegulatoryFramework for GoverningInternet Applications

The Regulatory Authority of Bahrain

03/2012 – ICT 2032

“Scotty, beam me up!“

On the possibilities of offering high-quality collaboration tools over the internet.

2014 – Book Publication

“Profitability in the Telco Industry”

Seven levers assure a prosperous future

2012 – eBook Publication

“The Future of Cloud

A roadmap of Technology, Product and Service innovations for Telecoms

Content


Tbd…

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Your Contact Persons

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Dr. Arnulf HeuermannManaging PartnerDetecon International GmbHSternengasse 14 – 16, 50676, Cologne (HQ)GermanyMobile: +49 171 2254217 (Germany)e-Mail: [email protected]

Please contact our topic experts at Detecon’s corporate headquarters in Cologne or at our regional offices in Johannesburg (CASA) and Abu Dhabi (MENA).

Tim DörflingerSenior ConsultantDetecon International GmbHBuilding 27, Woodlands Office Park,Woodmead 2191, South AfricaMobile: +27 82 3216730 (South Africa) Email: Tim.Dö[email protected]

Leonardo Caracas SalesConsultantAl Wahda City (1), Commercial Tower52612 Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates)Mobile: +971 566228123 Email: [email protected]

Stacey RukezoBusiness AnalystDetecon International GmbHBuilding 27, Woodlands Office Park,Woodmead 2191, South AfricaMobile: +27 82 879 7007 (South Africa) Email: [email protected]

Documents

VP_Value Killer OTTs in Africa