VMT AND ITS CAUSES?

Alan E. Pisarski

HERITAGE FOUNDATION 10/21/14

The long term trend is a declining VMT growth rate – baby boom, worker boom, car boom of the 60’s-90’s is over.

60 year av annual VMT growth Aging pop is a key

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 730

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Annual VMT by age -- 2009 VMT growth rate by decade

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1950's 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's

perc

ent c

hang

e

THE BOOMER PERIOD1960-1990 BABY BOOMERS JOINING THE WORK FORCE AND WOMEN ESPECIALLY IN EXTRAORDINARY NUMBERS.

WOMEN > MEN IN MILLIONS OF NEW WORKERS IN THE ENTIRE PERIOD

2000 - 2010 ADDED WORKERS WERE MORE LIKE THE 60’S OR 70’S THAN THE 90’S

2000-2010 WAS THE FIRST TIME SINCE 60-70 DECADE WHERE % INCREASE IN POPULATION EXCEEDED % INCREASE IN WORKERS.

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

6.9

12.8

18.1 18.4

13.2

8.6

WORKER INCREASE BY DECADE

mill

ions

SOME POSITIVE SIGNS

IS IT CYCLICAL OR STRUCTURAL? = a long slow miserable

economic recovery or a new normal? THE RANGE AROUND 3 TRILLION VMT

FROM 2004 TO 2014 IS REALLY MINOR = 1-1½% SHIFTS

MAY AND JUNE UP 1.4%IF WE FINISH THE YEAR AT THAT RATE TOTAL VMT WILL BE BACK TO HIGH OF 2007 – NOT LIKELY

EXPECTED GROWTH RATES OUT TO THE FUTURE WITHOUT AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES circa 1.0%-1.4%

ROUGHLY, CONSTANT VMT/CAPITA

IF WE SHIFT TO THE SAME SHARE OF WORKERS PER POP AS IN 2007 WE ARE BACK AT 2007 VMT

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132900000

2920000

2940000

2960000

2980000

3000000

3020000

3040000

Annual VMT Estimates - millions

INCOME LEVELS NOT BACK TO 2007!

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

yr $ 46326 48201 50233 50303 49777 49276 50054 51017

2012 $ 54486 54892 55627 53644 53285 51892 51100 51017

41,000

43,000

45,000

47,000

49,000

51,000

53,000

55,000

57,000

Recession Period Median Income Trend 2005-2012

med

ian

inco

me

$

BLS CPS NOTE: CEX SHOWS 2013 INCOMES DOWN FROM 2012; = 2011 IN 2013 TOP 4 QUINTILES LOST INCOME; ONLY LOWEST QUINTILE GAINED A BIT

TRANSPORTATION SPENDING BYWORKERS PER HOUSEHOLD

Single Person No Worker

Single Person Worker

2+ Persons No Worker

2+Persons, 1 Worker

2+Persons, 2 Workers

2+Persons 3 or More Workers

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$2,713

$5,552

$5,673

$8,477

$11,267

$14,025

Tran

spor

tatio

n Sp

endi

ng

EACH ADDED WORKERS ADDS ABOUT $2,800 IN CONSUMER SPENDING FOR TRANSPORTATION

“NORMAL” TRANSPORTATION SHARE IS 18-20% - NOT SEEN SINCE 2005

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

18.8% 19.1% 18.8% 18.8%18.0% 18.0% 17.6% 17.6%

17.0%15.6% 16.0%

16.7%17.5%

transportation share of consumer spending

2013 CEX TRANSPORTATION SPENDING RISES TO 17.6%GAS DOWN; CAR PURCHASES UP –POP, EARNERS, VEHICLES per HH CONSTANT 2011-2013

THIS CENTURY

• A VERY limited century so far

LIMITED• POP GROWTH•VEHICLE GROWTH•ROADWAY GROWTH•VMT GROWTH•SLIGHT GROWTH IN CONGESTED ROADS

•Average travel time to work•2000 25.5 minutes•2011 25.5 minutes

2000 2012 Change % chg

Population (millions) 281.4 313.9 32.5 11.6%

Vehicles (millions) 221.4 245.2 23.7 10.7%

Road System miles (millions)

3.936 4.092 .156 4.0%

Lane Miles (millions) 8.224 8.606 .381 4.6%

Vehicle Miles of Travel (trillions)

2.764 2.968 .204 7.4%

VMT/ lane mile (thousands)

336 345 8.8 2.6%

Summary Table of Key Factors

Some fundamental premises regarding future VMT

• Transportation is all about reducing the time and cost penalties of overcoming distance. – Overcoming distance = Access to opportunity = GOOD – Broader access to opportunity will be KEY in the future

• When innovation reduces the penalties of distance people will consume more of it.

• = more travel = more distance traversed • = more VMT

AMERICA BECAME GREAT BY OVERCOMING THE TYRANNY OF DISTANCE • NO OTHER SOCIETY HAS REACHED THAT SCALE• A COMMON MARKET OF WORKERS RESOURCES AND

PRODUCTS FROM MAINE TO CALIFORNIA + AK & HI• THE FUTURE WILL BE ABOUT SPECIALIZATION• ACCCESS TO

– SPECIALIZED WORKERS– SPECIALIZED MARKETS – SPECIALIZED SOURCES

• MARKET SHEDS WILL EXPAND-TRIP LENGTH GROWS

THE DEBATE IS REALLY ALL ABOUT

• SOME OF US SEE VMT AS EVIL OR A SYMBOL OF A HOST OF NEGATIVES

• OTHERS SEE VMT AS A BENIGN, GOSH, MAYBE EVEN A POSITIVE FORCE

• IS IT “INDUCED” DEMAND• OR “LATENT” DEMAND

HOW CRUEL IS THIS SOCIETY TO FORCE MINORITIES TO OWN VEHICLES

1970 1980 1990 2000 20100%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

All Black Hispanic

PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS WITHOUT VEHICLES

WHEN WLL THEY CON-VERGE?

WILL THAT BE A BAD THING?

DO

• ROADS CAUSE TRAFFIC ?• SCHOOLS CAUSE CHILDREN ?• HOSPITALS CAUSE ILLNESS ?• SUPER MARKETS CAUSE EATING?

?

“THE TRIPLE CONVERGENCE”TONY DOWNS

• IMPROVE A ROAD AND WHAT HAPPENS?– DRIVERS SWITCH FROM OTHER ROADS– DRIVERS SWITCH FROM OTHER TIMES– TRAVELERS SWITCH FROM OTHER MODES

• THEREFORE EXPANSION IS INEFFECTIVE THEREFORE THE ONLY ANSWER IS:

RELAX AND ENJOY THE CONGESTION, OR PRICING!

BUT I CONVINCED TONY – I THINK!

• IMPROVE ROAD WHAT HAPPENS ?- – DRIVERS SWITCH FROM OTHER ROADS – THAT MEANS THEY GET TO

CHOOSE A BETTER ROUTE– DRIVERS SWITCH FROM OTHER TIMES – THAT MEANS THEY GET TO

GO WHEN THEY PREFER– TRAVELERS SWITCH FROM OTHER MODES – THAT MEANS THEY GET

TO CHOOSE A PREFERRED APPROACH

• THEREFORE EXPANSION IS INEFFECTIVE NO; IT MEANS THAT EXPANSION IMPROVES AND EXPANDS CHOICE FOR BOTH PREVIOUS AND NEW USERS

TTI URBAN MOBILITY REPORT 2007

WOULDN’T IT BE NICE ….

• IF TRANSPORTATION DID NOT IMPEDE PEOPLE FROM ACTING ON THEIR ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL INTERESTS?

• MAYBE EVEN SUPPORTED IT?

ON OVERCROWDING AT TRB A PARABLE TRNEWS 1993

In one packed session, while seated high on the dais awaiting my turn to speak, (with a lofty view usually reserved for economists)

I noticed that in the back of the room a hotel employee was unloading chairs. As fast as they were setup, people sat on them.

The faster he put out chairs the faster people sat.

Finally, he ran out of chairs, and people stopped sitting.

Then, with that keen insight for which I am known, I realized:

Chairs cause sitting!

Alan E. Pisarski

ON OVERCROWDING AT TRB A PARABLE TRNEWS 1993

Given the number of policy analysts and planners available to us, and a planning process rich in depth, breadth, height, width, length, density-and viscosity-we can devise a better answer.

Obviously, more capacity is not the answer.

This member of the custodial staff who was unloading chairs thought he was doing the right thing, of course.

He thought, misguided as he was, that it was his job to provide more capacity for people who wanted to sit.

But we must not fall into his trap. We are transportation professionals!

We understand these things on a plane to which he cannot hope to aspire.

Alan E. Pisarski

THANK YOU !

Alan E. Pisarski

alanpisarski@alanpisarski.com

CURRENT VMT IMPROVING – OR GOING SIDEWAYS?

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2.30

2.50

2.70

2.90

3.10

Rural Highways

Travel Month

Av

era

ge

Da

ily V

eh

icle

-Dis

tan

ce

T

rav

ele

d (

Bill

ion

Mile

s)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

4.60

4.80

5.00

5.20

5.40

5.60

5.80

6.00

Urban Highways2012 2013 2014

Travel Month

Av

era

ge

Da

ily V

eh

icle

-Dis

tan

ce

Tra

ve

led

(B

illio

n M

iles

)

TO START: WHERE IS VMT NOW? Table 2-1 Commuting in Perspective

Household Travel

 

Travel by All Modes 2009 Private Vehicle Travel 2009

Percent of Person

Trips

Percent of Person Miles of Travel

Percent of Person

Travel Time

Percent of Person Travel

TimePercent of VMT

Percent of Total

Roadway VMT

Commuting 15.6 19 18.8 17.9 27.8

Work Related/Business Travel 3 6.3 4.6 5.2 9 76

Other Resident Travel 81.4 74.7 76.6 76.9 63.2

Subtotal 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Public and Commercial Travel

Public Vehicle Travel 2Utility/Service Travel 12Freight and Goods Movement Travel 10Total 100%

TABLE 2-1 BRIEF 2; Commuting in America 2013 – based on FHWA estimates

TTI URBAN MOBILITY REPORT 2010