VISTAS Modeling Overview

Oct. 29, 2003

pat.brewer@ncmail.net

VISTAS is evaluating visibility and sources of fine particulate mass in the Southeastern US

View NE from Appalachian Trail,Mt. Cammerer, Great Smoky Mtns.

VISTAS - Regional Haze Timeline

2004 2005 2006 200820072002 20031999 2000 2001

Regional Haze Rule

PM2.5

Designation Mar 2004

PM2.5 &Haze SIPsDec 2007

Air Quality Monitoring

Emissions Inventory

Atmospheric Modeling

VISTAS Planning

States Develop Haze SIPs

Strategy Design

Policy Interpretation

Baseline and natural conditions

BART Sources

Reasonable Progress Goals

Base year and future year strategies

Base year and future year air quality

Air Quality

Emissions

Meteorology

Air Quality Responsesto EmissionControls

Policy Interpretation

VISTAS Science Supports Regulatory Decisions

• anthropogenic • biogenic

• topography

• gases• particles• deposition• visibility Atmospheric

Model:• Chemistry• Transport• Deposition

2001 Annual Average Light Extinction

From VIEWS website

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Light Extinction on 20% Haziest Days - IMPROVE 1998 - 2001

50

100

150

200

250

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125,000

25,000

SO2 Point Sources >5,000 Tons per year 1999 National Emissions Inventory v 2

250,000Annual SO2 emissions

VISTAS Air Quality Modeling

Objectives:• Accurately represent meteorology, emissions,

and air quality MM5, SMOKE, CMAQ

• Model base year to support both regional haze and PM2.5 regulatory requirements

• Model future year and control strategies for regional haze states responsible for PM2.5 attainment

demonstrations

VISTAS Air Quality Modeling

• Phase I: Evaluate different model configurations for 3 episodes: Jan 02, July 99, July 01 recommend annual modeling protocol Jan 04

• Phase Ib: Evaluate emissions sensitivities Decoupled Direct Method (DDM) to support design

of emissions control strategies - Sept 04• Phase II: Annual regional modeling

base year modeling begins Jan 04 control strategy runs completed by June 05

VISTAS Modeling Contracts

• Meteorological Modeling Baron Applied Meteorological Systems

• Emissions, and Air Quality Modeling Environ International Corporation University of California – Riverside Alpine Geophysics

• Emissions sensitivities using DDM for aerosols Georgia Institute of Technology

VISTAS 36-km and 12-km CMAQ Modeling Domains

Initial CMAQ Model Configuration

CMAQ Version 4.3 (August 2003)• Horizontal Advection and Vertical Advection

Piecewise Parabolic Method (PPM)• Gas-Phase Chemistry: CB-IV with MEBI/Hertel Solver• Aerosol Chemistry: AE3 / ISORROPIA / SORGAM• Aqueous-Phase Chemistry: RADM• Dry Deposition: Pleim-Xiu• MM5 Configuration:

Pleim-Xiu/ACM Soil/PBL models with MCIP2.2 Pass Through• SMOKE Emissions: NEI 1999 v2 with CMU NH3

CMAQ Sensitivity Tests: 3 episodes

• Vertical Layers: 19 vs 34 layers• Boundary Conditions: Ultra Clean, GEOS-CHEM• Ammonia Emissions: Jan 50% reduction, diurnal pattern• Vertical Diffusivity - Minimum Kz: 0.1 or 1.0 m2/s• Alternative meteorology - with Wesley Dry Deposition • SAPRC-99 chemistry• CB-2002 chemistry• CB-AIMS chemistry with sectional approach• Best and Final CMAQ configuration• CAM-x trial with comparable configuration

Emissions Sensitivities

Objectives• Install DDM-AERO in CMAQ

– DDM gas-phase already in CMAQ• Demonstrate DDM-AERO performance

– “Limits of linearity” for each pollutant• Apply DDM-AERO to evaluate emissions changes:

– Point SO2, Area SO2, Point NOx, Mobile NOx, Area NH3...– States, regions, boundary conditions

• Test options to revise CMAQ code to improve model efficiency

Aug 2003:Emissions InventoryBase 2002

Dec 2003:RevisedEm InvBase 2002

Jan 2004:Modeling Protocol

Mar 2004:DraftEm Inv 2018

July 2004:Revised State Em InvBase 2002

Sept 2004:Annual Base YearModel Runs

Dec 2004:Annual Run 2018

Apr 2004:DDM in CMAQ

Oct 2004:SensitivityRuns 20183 episodes

Dec 2003:Met, Em, AQmodel testing3 episodes

Sept 2004:Revised Em Inv2018

Oct-Dec 2004:Control Strategy Inventories

Jan 2005:Sensitivity Runs 2018 episodes

Jan-Jun 2005:Control Strategy Runs 2018

Mar 2004:CART:selectsensitivityepisodes

July-Dec 2005:ObservationsConclusionsRecommendations

After Jun 2005Model Runs: e.g. Power Plant Turnover

Before Jun 2005Other Inventory: e.g. Power Plant Turnover

Meteorological, Emissions, and Air Quality Modeling Deliverables

State Regulatory Activities

Jan-Mar 2004Define BART sources

Optional Optional

June 2004Identify BART controls

Draft 08/18/03