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Vision for 2020: Development of Methodology

Supporting pack for core team

March 2009

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Introduction to this document

•In December 2008, Value Partners was engaged to support the British Library by providing a “toolkit” to develop its vision to 2020

•Our approach was focused on collaboration and empowering the BL -working jointly with the BL “core team”-teaching strategy “tools”-ongoing training and support-ensuring BL ownership -shared workshops

•This document is a supporting pack which is designed to act as a “how to” guide and refresher on the key tools in the toolkit

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Structure of this document

•Tools are divided across 4 phases of strategy planning process

1 2 3 4

•For each of the 17 tools, this document outlines - what the tool looks like - why we use it - when we use it - how we use it - what the BL version could look like

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Introducing the four phases

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Planning approach – 4 phases

Who are we?

Phase 1: Structure issues

Phase 2: Develop hypotheses / scenarios

Phase 3: StrategicOptions analysis

Phase 4: Strategic roadmap

Which scenario is best?

How do we get there?

Review core ideology

Vision 1

Vision 2

Vision 3

Vision 4

What do we need to do?

Build scenarios

Assess scenarios Plan

Conclusions

Scenario 1

What will the operating environment look like?

Where could we go?

1Scenario 2

10 years

External environment

NewNow

Internalenvironment

New Now

Scenario 2Scenario 3

2

3

What is the critical path?

Worksteps 1 2 4 6 10

Text

• Text

• Text

Define range of potential visions

Where should we go?

PLAN

Hypotheses

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Detailed review of phases

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Phase 1: structure issues

1 2Month

Review core ideology

Vision 1 Vision 2

Vision 3 Vision 4

What do we need to do?

Define range of potential visions

Who are we?

PLAN

• Yin Yang

Vision tools

• Question-tree• Domain Chart• Hypotheses• Source matrix• Gantt chart• RACI

Planning tools

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Vision

Phase 1a) Vision development

Core ideology

VisionVision

VisionVision

Vision

Vision

Generate range of vision

Inform evaluation of

scenarios

• Before diving into structuring the issues and planning research, the BL needs to have an idea of the ‘core ideology’ upon which its vision will be based

• This is not an easy exercise and may take time

- ideally requires a series of ‘wordsmith’ workshops

- agree in draft format to ‘get the ball rolling’ and address more fully later (e.g. when communicated to staff / public)

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Tool 1: Yin Yang

VISIONCORE

IDEOLOGY

Core Values

Core Purpose

BHAG

(Big, Hairy, Audacious Goal)

Description

YANG

YIN

Source:James C Collins and Jerry I Porras, Harvard Business Review, September - October 1996

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Yin Yang – why and when do we use it?

Why do we use it? When do we use it?

• It is essential to understand and clarify the unchanging principles behind an organisation before considering its future direction

• At the start of the vision development process

• As a continual source of reference

• As an evaluation criteria for scenarios

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How do we construct a Yin Yang?

Source:James C Collins and Jerry I Porras, Harvard Business Review, September - October 1996

Core ideology Vision

• The raison d’etre• Why we exist

CORE IDEOLOGY

Core Values

Core Purpose

YANG

YIN

VISION

BHAG

(Big, Hairy, Audacious Goal)

Description

• What we stand for• Should include

outward-facing statements

• Long-term (10-15 year) goal

• Clear and compelling

• Tangible, energising and focused

• A clear “finish line”

• A fuller description of the BHAG

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Example Yin Yang: Sony in the 1950s

• Become the company most known for changing the worldwide poor-quality image of Japanese products

• To experience the sheer joy of innovation and the

• application of technology for the benefit and pleasure

• of the general public

• Elevation of the Japanese culture and national status

• Being a pioneer – not following others; doing the impossible

• Encouraging individual ability and creativity

Core ideology

• We will create products that become pervasive around the world.… We will be the first Japanese company to go into the U.S. market and distribute directly.… We will succeed with innovations that U.S. companies have failed at – such as the transistor radio.… Fifty years from now, our brand name will be as well known as any in the world…and will signify innovation and quality that rival the most innovative companies anywhere.… “Made in Japan” will mean something fine, not something shoddy.

Source:James C Collins and Jerry I Porras, Harvard Business Review, September - October 1996

CORE IDEOLOGY

Core Values

Core Purpose

YANG

YIN

VISION

BHAG

(Big, Hairy, Audacious Goal)

Description

Vision

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What could the BL Yin Yang look like?

• Example: “Become the digital one-stop shop for researchers to connect to digital content both within and outside our collections”

• Advancing the world’s knowledge

• A visionary organisation with world-class collections

• The highest quality and breadth of activity, serving multiple users

• Leading edge innovations from conservation to digitisation

• Making a valuable contribution to society

• A passionate and collaborative culture

• Valuable benefits and personal development opportunities

Core ideology VisionENVISIONED

FUTURE

CORE IDEOLOGY

Core Values

Core Purpose

BHAG

(Big, Hairy, Audacious Goal)

Description

YANG

YIN

• Major transition to e- collecting and mass digitisation

• Services based on BL collection and linking to non-BL collection

• Developing tools for research environment

• Majority of customers remote

ILLUSTRATIVE

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Phase 1b) Planning/structuring the issues

Structuring the issues Defining the scope Planning the

research

• Question tree • Domain chart • Hypotheses• Source matrix• Gantt chart• RACI

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Tool 2: Question tree

Client’s Principal Question

Client’s Subordinate

Question

Client’s Subordinate

Question

Client’s Subordinate

Question

Client’s Subordinate

Question

Deliverables

Key Research Questions

Deliverables

Key Research Questions

Deliverables

Key Research Questions

Deliverables

Key Research Questions

Structuring the issues

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Question tree – why and when do we use it?

Why do we use it? When do we use it?

• The question tree is a tool to break down a complex problem into manageable pieces-structures the questions that need to be answered to complete a project

-provides a check that all issues have been covered off

-visually represents how the questions fit together and which are most important

• At the start of a project

• Before generating hypotheses and conducting research

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How do we construct a question tree?

Define principal question

• Consider the deliverables required

• Needs to be broad enough so not to limit thinking, but not too broad that the project is meaningless

Develop subordinate questions

• Keep to 5-6• Start by

brainstorming• Clarify importance• Check for any issues

not covered• Should logically flow

to answer the principal question

Identify research questions• Keep to 5-6 per

subordinate question• Check for cross-over

with other research questions

• May raise issues about scope, e.g. depth of research, time, budget, etc.

Iterate, refine and test

• Each level down may inform higher-level questions

• Interactively ‘play back’ to team, e.g. workshop

M

E

C

E

Don’t forget...

utually

xclusive

ollectively

haustive

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Example question tree – Government policy

How can the Government best foster innovation in the UK for high quality, professional new media content?

How does the UK new media sector currently operate?

• What is included within ‘new media’?

• What is the new media ecology?

• Who are the key players across the value chain?

• What are the successful and emerging business models?

• How is talent attracted, developed and retained in the sector?

What are the drivers and barriers to creativity and

innovation in UK new media?

• What factors have driven success in:- traditional media in

the UK?- new media in the UK

and internationally?• What challenges do

new media businesses face in start-up and growth phases?

• To what extend are the drivers and barriers demand-led or supply- led?

What range of policy options should we

evaluate?

• How should the new media sector evolve to best support UK plc in the next 5 – 10 years?

• What policies are in place in other countries with a thriving new media industry?

• What policies have successfully driven growth in other UK sectors?

Which set of policy options would we

recommend?

• What criteria should be used to evaluate policy options? How should these be prioritised?

• What parameters do we need to work within e.g. funding, timing

• How do our shortlisted policy options compare on a qualitative and quantitative basis?

Subordinate questions

Principal question

Key research questions

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What could the BL question tree look like?

Subordinate questions

Principal question

Key research questions (examples)

What should be the role of the BL in 2020?

What is the BL’s current

position?

How are macro-

dynamics changing

demand for BL services?

How is the funding

environment changing?

How is the market

developing to meet these

trends?

What are the BL’s options and which is

best?

How can change be realised?

• What services does the BL offer?

• Who are its users?

• What are the BL’s strengths and weaknesses?

• Where is spending focused?

• What are the technological trends affecting consumer behaviour?

• How are researcher patterns changing?

• What are the relevant macrodynamics?

• How are Government objectives changing?

• How are other potential funders’ demands changing?

• In what stages of the value chain are competitors likely to emerge?

• What business models will be developed?

• In which areas will there be limited market development?

• What are the key scenario parameters?

• What are the evaluation criteria?

• What are the key steps that need to be taken?

• What are the potential barriers?

• How can change be managed effectively?

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Tool 3: Domain chart

Assignment objective

Domain to be

understood

Domain to be

understood

Domain to be

understood

Domain to be

understood

Deliverable 1 Deliverable 2 Deliverable 3 Deliverable 4

Sub domain

Sub domain

Sub domain

Sub domain

Sub domain

Sub domain

Sub domain

Sub domain

Sub domain

Sub domain

Sub domain

Sub domain

Defining the scope

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Domain chart – why and when do we use it?

Why do we use it? When do we use it? • Domain charts take the question tree

thinking a stage further by answering the question: “what do we need to understand to do this project?”

• Defining the sub-domains and what the deliverables are upfront helps to avoid ‘boiling the ocean’ e.g. ‘understand the market’ could be huge

• Each deliverable (i.e. understanding each domain) contributes to the assignment objective

• After completing the question tree• Before generating hypotheses and

conducting research

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How do we construct a domain chart?

Assignment objective

Domain to be

understood

Domain to be

understood

Domain to be

understood

Deliverable 1 Deliverable 2 Deliverable 3

Sub domain

Sub domain

Sub domain

Sub domain

Sub domain

Sub domain

Sub domain

Sub domain

Sub domain

• Specific• Measurable• Agreed• Realistic• Time-bound

• Maps onto question tree subordinate questions

• Maps onto question tree research questions

• Collectively helps to achieve assignment objective

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What could the BL’s domain chart look like?

To define a vision statement for the British Library in 2020 and develop a roadmap for organisational transformation

The BL’s current position

Macro- dynamics

Funding environment

Competitive dynamics

Internal analysis

Users

Strengths & weaknesses

Services

Options Implement- ation

Market analysis

Researchers

Economy

Technology

Funding projections & demands

Research bodies

Voluntary

Government

Competitor / partner analysis

Bus. model

Partnerships

Players

Scenarios & vision

statement

Attractiveness

Parameters

Resource

Focus streams

Trans- formation roadmap

Achievabiility Timing

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Tool 4: hypotheses

Funding pressures will require significant

cutbacks in discretionary services

Assignment objective

Domain to be

understood

Domain to be

understood

Domain to be

understood

Deliverable 1

Deliverable 2

Deliverable 3

Sub domain

Sub domain

Sub domain

Sub domain

Sub domain

Sub domain

Sub domain

Sub domain

Sub domain

There are significant opportunities for

partnerships in resource discovery

Researchers will increasingly demand

remote access

Planning the research

At least 1 hypothesis is required for each sub-

domain in the domain chart

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Hypotheses – why and when do we use them?

Why do we use them? When do we use them? • Hypotheses ‘look to the end’ of the

project, driving research in terms of testing a set of tentative conclusions

• Storyboarding is the process of setting out hypotheses in a logical order to reach a conclusion- this allows you to consider what evidence is required to reach a conclusion

- research will test hypotheses and in turn check whether conclusions can be made

• After developing the domain chart

• To clarify and review the team’s thinking

• To start the more detailed planning of the research required

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How do we construct hypotheses?

Generate ideas

• In terms of the overall objective / end result, generate ideas about each domain- what might be

the problems?- what might be

the opportunities?

- what might be the explanations?

Refine and select Look ahead Consider

implicationsOngoing review

• Are the hypotheses clear?

• Are they relevant?

• Are they valuable in terms of the overall objective?

• Are they verifiable?

• How would the hypotheses be tested?

• How would the resulting conclusions contribute to the overall objective?

• How would they be analysed and presented?

• Is testing the hypotheses practical?

• What skills do we require to test them?

• Can we test them by ourselves?

• Review and refine hypotheses in the team as the project progresses

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Hypotheses vs. propositions

• “70% of customer facing staff in the bank would leave tomorrow given equivalent pay/job security”

• “65% of Brand X’s previously most loyal customers cite price rises as the main reason for switching to Brands Y & Z”

• “Staff morale would be more likely to improve through better internal communications than with another training programme.”

• “The deregulation of this market offers a brief, but significant opportunity for products A&B, but the end for product C”

Hypotheses Propositions

Neutral statements or exhibits of research

finding

Considered value judgments as to the explanation, problem or opportunity

Conclusions

Lead you to

Look for evidence to test the validity of the statement

• When modified in the light of the data, they become:

Prompts you to think: “what should we do /

change?”

Lead you to

Look for data to prove / disprove the statement

• If substantiated they become:

Evidence

Prompts you to think: “so what?”

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Tool 5: source matrix

• What are the issues in today’s environment?

• What is Brand X’s current positioning

• Who are its major competitors?

• Etc?

Dir.

Mar

ketin

g

Dir.

Fin

ance

Reg

iona

lMan

ager

s

Cou

ntry

Man

ager

s

Cus

tom

ers

(UK

)

Supp

liers

Cus

tom

ers

(Ove

rsea

s)

Indu

stry

Expe

rt

Questions

I

I

I

WS

WS

WS

WS

FG FG

FG FG

S II

I/D

I =InterviewWS=WorkshipFG =Focus group

S =SurveyD =report document

Planning the research

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Source matrix – why and when do we use it?

Why do we use it? When do we use it? • To organise the data gathering

process to test hypotheses

• To set out required activities, potential sources and method of data gathering

• To crystallise data gathering issues- highlights where data might be difficult to find

- identifies resource needs- enables more detailed planning and a more intense research phase

• After generating domain chart and hypotheses

• When planning a complex piece of research

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How do we construct a source matrix?

Agree research questions• This forms the

vertical axis of the matrix

• Should follow from question tree, domain chart and hypotheses

Brainstorm sources

Identify methods

Check sources

Assess practicality

• This forms the horizontal axis of the matrix

• Think about who you wish to consult for each research question (e.g. stakeholders, staff, customers)

• Consider best way to get data from each source- Time/effort- Tactics- Type of data

• Do you have enough sources for validity?

• Is there any overkill?

• Is the source matrix practical?- Time- Resource- Cost

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What could the BL source matrix look like?

• What is the BL’s current position?

• How are macro-dynamics changing demand for BL services?

• How is the funding environment changing?

• Etc

ET Cor

e Te

am

Staf

f

Gov

ernm

ent

Oth

erfu

nder

s

Cus

tom

ers

Supp

liers

Pote

ntia

lpar

tner

s

Indu

stry

Expe

rts

Questions

D

D

D I I

FG I

FG I

I IS/I

I

WS

WS I

WS

ILLUSTRATIVE

I =InterviewWS=WorkshipFG =Focus group

S =SurveyD =report document

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Tool 6: Gantt Chart

• Activity 1

• Activity 2

• Activity 3

• Activity 4

• Activity 5

• Activity 6

• Activity 7

• Activity 8

T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T10 T11 T12

MilestonePlanning the research

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Gantt chart – why and when do we use it?

Why do we use it? When do we use it? • To visually represent the tasks

required, their time sequence and milestones

• To identify critical tasks or bottlenecks

• To support communication within the assignment team

• After developing domain chart, hypotheses and source matrix

• Before conducting research

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How do we construct a Gantt chart?

• Activity 1

• Activity 2

• Activity 3

• Activity 4

• Activity 5

• Activity 6

• Activity 7

• Activity 8

T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T10 T11 T12

Activities should map broadly onto domain chart

Level of detail should depend on purpose of Gantt chart• Project plan should be high-level

Build in contingency – where overrun is possible make this clear

Highlight project milestones

Milestone

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What could the BL’s Gantt chart look like?Milestone

• Review core ideology

• Define range of visions

• Plan research, allocate responsibility

• External research

• Internal research

• Develop scenarios

• Option analysis

• Strategic roadmap

T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T10 T11 T12

Market research Focus groups

Focus groupsResearch complete

Workshop

WorkshopStakeholder Consultation

Workshop

WorkshopPhase 1

Capabilities reviewPhase 2

Phase 3

Phase 4

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Tool 7: RACI

Planning the research

Activity 1

Activity 2

...

Key activitiesRole CEO Finance

C

I

HR

R

Operations

I

R

Sales

C

IT

A

A

Responsible = the ‘doer’Accountable = ‘the buck stops here’Consulted = discuss before decision/actionInformed = told after decision/action

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RACI – why and when do we use it?

Why do we use it? When do we use it? • To clarify responsibility for complex

tasks

• To identify who else needs to be involved in the process and what role they will play

• After developing source matrix and Gantt chart

• Immediately before conducting research

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What could the BL’s RACI look like?

Customer segmentation

Literature review

Stakeholder interviews

Key activitiesRole Steve

C

Responsible = the ‘doer’Accountable = ‘the buck stops here’Consulted = discuss before decision/actionInformed = told after decision/action

Lucie

A

C

Ann

R

I

Stephanie

R

A R

ET

I

Board

IC

I

•Drive accountability down•Only one person is accountable

I A R R R I I

ILLUSTRATIVE

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Phase 2: research and develop scenarios

1 2Month 3 4 5 6 7

Conclusions

Scenario 1

Where could we go?

External environment

NewNow

Internalenvironment

New Now

Scenario 2Scenario 3

Hypotheses

What will the operating environment look like?

• Stakeholder mapping

• Customer segmentation

• Value-chain

Conceptualtools

• Market research

• Focus groups• Interviews• Desk research

Researchmethods

• Parameters• 2x2 matrix

Scenariodevelopment

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Conceptual tools

‘TRUTHS’

What will the operating environment look like?

UNKNOWNS

INTERNAL

EXTERNAL

Focus of this document

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Internal analysis

INTERNAL

STAFF

COSTS

ORGANISTATIONAL STRUCTURE

ABILITY

WILLINGNESS

CUSTOMERS

SERVICES

Focus of this document

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Tool 8: internal stakeholder mapping

Commitment to change

Impact of change

Resist Watch Support Drive

High

Low

IT

Finance

Marketing

Sales

Operations

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Internal stakeholder mapping – why and when do we use it?

Why do we use it? When do we use it? • Assessing an organisation’s capacity

for change requires understanding not only its staff ability, but also their willingness or resistance to change

• This analysis may have a direct bearing on the achievability of a given vision scenario

• When starting internal analysis, alongside assessing the ability of your workforce and suitability of the organisational structure

• As a management tool upon implementation – the aim will be to move staff to the top-right quadrant

WO

N’T

WIL

L

CAN’T CAN

Will

ingn

ess

Ability

• Primarily used for staff in the bottom two quadrants

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How do we construct an internal stakeholder map?

Identify stakeholders

• Start with major groups before breaking down to individuals

• Use organisation chart if necessary

Identify commitment Identify impact Identify

influence

• How enthusiastic and bought in is this group/individual to the change?

• How will the change affect the group/individual, in terms of changes to their working practices and behaviour?

• What is the group's/individual’s ability to block or delay the delivery of the change?

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A framework for identifying commitment

Rational• Why should I change?• Is the new model really

better?

Political• What's in it for

me?• Is there a risk for

my position?• What will my

power be tomorrow?

Emotional• Is the effort worth it?• Am I going to be

successful?• How will I look in the

future?

• Addressing the rational motivation for change is only a starting point

• Understanding and addressing the political and emotional dimensions of change is necessary

The three dimensions of change

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What could the BL’s internal stakeholder map look like?

Commitment to change

Impact of change

Resist Watch Support Drive

High

Low

IT

HR

Finance

S&C

O&S

ILLUSTRATIVE

size of circle = group’s/individual’s level of influence on the success of

the changeBreak down to individuals within directorates

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8%

50%

13%

29%

Capital(£12m)

People (£66m)

Cost analysis

Collection (£17m)

Goods/services incl. estates (£39m)

BL’s current cost allocation • Given expected funding

pressure, the BL needs to understand how it spends its money in more detail

- how is spending currently allocated?

- where are there further efficiency gains to be made?

- which parts of the cost base are most / least flexible?

• This will involve an assessment of spending by:

- customers

- services

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Tool 9: customer segmentation for internal analysis

... ... ......

...

...

...

...

Variable 2

Variable 1

20% of customers

80% of expenditure

Dedicated customer team

80% of customers

20% of expenditure

Limited understanding

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Customer segmentation – why and when do we use it?

Why do we use it? When do we use it? • For internal analysis, to understand

current spend and focus

• To inform future priorities, e.g. most attractive potential customers

• As part of cost analysis

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How do we construct a customer segmentation?

• Segmentation should be driven by- purpose- potential availability of data

• Two types of variables to consider- Customer-related, e.g.. demographics. customer needs

- Product-related, e.g.. usage. application / user type. benefits sought. price sensitivity

• No more than 5-6 groupings

How we do it

• Discipline

• Digital vs physical

• Physical vs remote

• Simple vs complex

• Full- vs part-time

• Researcher vs general public

• Current vs future

Workshop 2 ideas

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What could the BL’s customer segmentation look like?

A&H STM SSAcademic

Commercial

Library network

General public

Education

What % of total users?What % of expenditure?

Current offer?

Discipline Customer

type

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Tool 10: value chain for internal analysis

Content production Aggregation VAS

Strengths / weaknesses

Expenditure

Key activities

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Value chain – why and when do we use it?

Why do we use it? When do we use it? • For internal analysis, to understand

current spend and focus of investment

• To assess strengths and weaknesses

• To inform future priorities, e.g. most attractive potential services and future focus of investment

• As part of cost analysis

• In tandem with assessment of competitors and potential partners

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What could the BL’s value chain look like?

• Author• Academic• Journalists• Diaries /

memoirs

Content creation

• Editing• Peer

review• Design• Marketing• Manufact-

uring

• Subscrip- tion agents

• Wholesal- ers

• Legal deposit

• Acquisition• Storage /

preservat- ion

• Catalogue • A&I• Metadata• Resource

discovery

• On-site view

• Document supply

• Remote access

• Exhibitions

• Academic• Education • Entrepren-

eur• Casual

Selection & develop- ment

Distribu- tion

Aggreg- ation Navigation Access End user

Traditional publishing value-chainVertical integration make sense when content is physical

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Value chain – clarifying focus of investment

Content creation

Selection & develop- ment

Distribu- tion

Aggreg- ation Navigation Access End user

Two possible options

Content creation

Selection & develop- ment

Distribu- tion

Aggreg- ation Navigation Access End user

Focus of investment

Focus of investment

Content-led

Customer services-led

Focus of investment

Secondary focus

Consider what we:• do ourselves• partner• outsource

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External analysis

DEVELOP FILTER FOR ANALYSIS

REPURPOSE INTERNAL TOOLS DRILL DOWN

• How can we best approach external analysis?

• How can we best adapt the tools from internal analysis?

• How can we best analyse particular external issues?

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Tool 12: external stakeholder mapping

External Stakeholders

Customers

Suppliers

PartnersCompetitors

Funders

Developing a filter for external analysis

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External stakeholder map – why and when do we use it?

Why do we use it? When do we use it? • To identify the major groups and

individuals who are impacted by your organisation’s change and who can influence the level of change

• To create a ‘filter’ through which external analysis can be conducted – if it is not relevant to your stakeholders then it is unlikely to matter to you

• To understand relationships between stakeholders

• To assess external stakeholders’ hopes and fears of change

• When beginning external analysis

• As a reference point throughout external analysis

• As a basis for assessing the attractiveness and achievability of any given vision scenario

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What could the BL’s external stakeholder map look like?

British Library

Funders

PartnersCompetitors

• Gov’t departments• Research councils• Sale of services• Voluntary donors• International

• Academic• Commercial• Library network• General public• Education

Suppliers

• Established publishers

• Digital content• UGC• Legal deposit

• Search engines• OA networks• Social networks• Document supply• A&I• Other libraries

Customers

• ‘Innovation’ partners, e.g. Microsoft

• Libraries (local, legal deposit, int’l)

Competitors could be future partners

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Tool 13: value chain for external analysis

Content creation

Selection & develop- ment

Distribu- tion

Aggreg- ation

Navigation

Access

End user“Open Access”

Search engines

Social networks / UGC

• As a step on from assessing its current capabilities to operate in an unbundled value chain, the BL must identify competitive trends and potential partners

- competitor strengths and weaknesses

- emerging business models

- willingness / suitability for partnership

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Tool 14: customer segmentation for external analysis

A&H STM SSAcademic

Commercial

Library network

General public

Education

•Understand customer motivations, unmet needs and perception of non-customers

•Options and constraints to enhancing offer?

Discipline Customer

type

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Research methods

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What research methods should we use?

• Quantitative• Large sample size

Pros Cons

Market research

Focus groups

Desk research

• Takes a long time• Quantitative not always

required• Superfluous questions

• Detailed qualitative• Discussion between

participants

• Harder to ask sensitive questions

• Individuals dominate• Logistical difficulties

• Cheap and quick• Flexible timing

• Reliant on secondary data

• Limited ‘digging’ beneath surface

Interviews • Detailed qualitative• Ask sensitive questions• Assess body language /

tone in more detail

• Labour intensive

Low

High

Cost

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Interview tips

Use ‘straw men’

• Take working hypotheses / scenarios to the interviews to facilitate discussion of longer- term vision

Mix number of interviewers

• Two interviewers are not always necessary or optimal• Interviewees can feel easily intimidated (especially at less senior levels)

Supplement interviews

• Interviews form just part of the consultative process• Supplement them with written questionnaires and workshops

Keep interviews transparent

• Ensure the interviewee knows why they are being interviewed • Make them feel like they are part of an ongoing process• If possible try to involve them throughout to see how their thinking develops

Challenge ideas

• When interviewees mention an idea or vision, ask them for concrete ways to put it into practice – this might throw up challenges or new ideas

Bottom-up & top-down

• Some interviewees find discussion outside of their area of expertise difficult• Mix bottom-up, detailed questions (how ‘nuts & bolts’ of everyday work might change) with

discussion about top-down, high-level issues

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How much research do we need to do?E.g. “Do we need to invest time in getting a clear view of what the macro-dynamics will be in 2020?”

High

Low

Focus of research

Scale of impact HighLow

Focus research on areas that

have highest impact and are most likely to

affect your organisation

Monitor

Analyse in-depth

Likelihood of impact

Monitor and analyse; consider

contingent strategies

Monitor and analyse

Source: Strategic Market Management, David Aaker

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Scenario development

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Scenario development: the process

Conclusions about future operating environment

BA

Long list of parameters

Parameter 2

Parameter 1

A

B

AS IS

Scenario 1Scenario 2

Most incremental

Most radical

Scenario 3

Arrive at short-list of 2

1

2

3

Use parameters to drive scenarios

4

From conclusions to refined vision

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Tool 15: 2 x 2 scenario matrix

Scenarios are created based on mapping across

two dimensions or parameters

Parameter 1

Parameter 2

TODAY

SCENARIO 3SCENARIO 1

SCENARIO 2

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Long-list of parametersParameters

Physical-led Digital-ledContent

Content ConnectServices

Specialist BroadCustomer

Physical access Remote accessAccess

RelevanceOn-site OnlineCustomer experience

In-house Out-sourceProduct delivery

National InternationalGeographic scope

Specific disciplines All disciplinesDiscipline

Free FeePricing

Reduced to customer

experience

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What could the BL’s scenarios look like?

Connect

Physical-led

Content

TODAY

SCENARIO 3SCENARIO 1

SCENARIO 2

An additional “disciplines/subject” lens can be applied to this framework

SERVICES

CONTENT

Digital-led

Scenario development tool

ILLUSTRATIVE

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Straw-men scenarios

• Major transition to e-collecting and mass digitisation

• Services based on BL collection only

• Majority of customers remote

“Become the digital one-stop shop for researchers to connect to digital content both within and outside our collections”

• Major focus on collecting print• Small scale digitisation• Services based on BL collection

and linking to non-BL collection• Mix of on-/off-site customers

Collection digital + digitisedContent accessed BL-ownedCustomers using St Pancras

1. “Let’s get virtual” 2. “Let’s get physical” 3. “Let’s get embedded”

• Major transition to e-collecting and mass digitisation

• Services based on BL collection and linking to non-BL collection

• Developing tools for research environment

• Majority of customers remote

“Become the one-stop shop for physical content both within and outside our collections”

“Become the primary provider of digital academic content”

ILLUSTRATIVE

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Phase 3: Options analysis

1

2

3

Where should we go?

1 2Month 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Which scenario is best?

• A2 matrix

Tools

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Tool 16: A2 matrix

Attractiveness

High

Low

Best option

AchievabilityHighLow

Scenario X

Scenario Y

Scenario Z

Worst option

What are the strategic benefits?

How easy to implement?

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A2 matrix – why and when do we use it?

Why do we use it? When do we use it? • To rank scenarios and identify the

scenarios which are most attractive/accessible

• Once a long-list of scenarios has been created

• Whenever new scenarios are added/considered

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How do we construct an A2 matrix?

• From scenario development process

• In this document we will use scenarios from phase 2

Identify scenarios Define criteria Weight

criteria

Score criteria for each scenario

Plot A2 matrix

• MECE• Ideally mix

qualitative and quantitative

• May require prior work (e.g. stakeholder needs)

• Keep it manageable

• Rank 1 (lowest) to 5 (highest)

• Be disciplined – think priorities

• Post-rationalise if necessary

• Think long-term• Post-rationalise

if necessary

• Compare scenarios

• Step back and sense-check

A2 is not a scientific formula – it provides a framework to rationally consider what factors are important, the underlying

rationale, and a means to systematically compare scenarios

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Attractiveness: what do we mean?

Criteria

Financial sustainability

• Will it attract public funding?• Will the BL’s products and services be monetisable?

Brand value • Will the BL be perceived more positively?• Will the BL brand be coherent?

Fit with core ideology

• Will the BL continue to ‘advance the world’s knowledge’?• Will the BL’s organisational values be upheld?

Social value • Will the BL create value for the wider society?• How far will the BL’s reach be extended, e.g. in regional areas?

Customer value • Will the BL’s customers be satisfied?• Will representative bodies by satisfied, e.g. Royal Society?

Questions

…

Government support

• Will the BL support government priorities / objectives?

“What are the strategic benefits?”ILLUSTRATIVE

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Achievability: what do we mean?

Criteria

Financial risk • How much will it cost?• Can the funding be raised?• Does the BL need to invest significantly upfront?

Timing • Can it be planned and implemented within the required timeframe

Competitor response

• How easy is it for existing / future competitors to enter?• Are competitors deemed a serious threat?

Availability of suitable partners

• Will the BL have access to the willing and suitable partners?• Are competitors potential partners?

Regulatory and legal hurdles

• What are the regulatory / legal issues that need to be overcome?• Is there political support?

Capabilities • Does the BL have requisite in-house capabilities?• Will there be internal alignment or resistance to change?

Questions

…

“How easy is it to implement?”ILLUSTRATIVE

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How important could each attractiveness criteria be for the BL?

Criteria ReasonWeighting(1 to 5)

Financial sustainability

• BL is a not-for-profit organisation• However self-sustainability would allow greater

autonomy from funding pressures3

Government support 2

• Government is a key stakeholder but not end-in-itself• Government objectives may be slow to develop• BL may be able to influence support

Customer value5

• It is important for the BL to satisfy the people that actually use it otherwise it may become irrelevant

Social value4

• As a public organisation the BL should add significant value to wider society

Fit with core ideology 5

• Yin Yang – vision should be rooted in core ideology

Brand1

• Brand is less important than BL’s actual contribution• BL may be able to influence those who matter

ILLUSTRATIVE

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Criteria ReasonWeighting(1 to 5)

Financial Risk5

• The BL has to be funded – otherwise it will not exist• High upfront capex may be unfeasible

Capabilities3

• Capabilities are important but can be improved• Change can be managed

Regulatory and legal hurdles 3

• More likely to slow BL’s development• However BL may be able to influence

Availability of suitable partners 4

• The BL cannot nor should try to do everything itself

Timing1

• We are already thinking ahead 10 years so plenty of time

Competitor response 3

• Competitors, especially in the private sector, may undermine the BL’s vision

How important could each achievability criteria be for the BL? ILLUSTRATIVE

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Reaching a weighted score for each scenario

Attractiveness criteria• Financial sustainability• Government support• Customer value• Social value• Fit with core ideology• Brand

Achievability criteria• Financial risk• Capabilities• Regulatory and legal• Availability of suitable partners• Timing• Competitor response

32545120

53341218

Weighting

443331

324542

ScoreX Total A B

C

A BX C/ DorCriteria

D

0.600.400.750.600.750.053.15

0.830.330.661.110.220.223.37

Rationale

ILLUSTRATIVE

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Plot weighted scores for each scenario

Attractiveness

High

Low

Best quadrant

AchievabilityHighLow

Let’s get virtual

Let’s get digital

Let’s get embedded

Worst quadrant

• Isolated from researchers• Skills shortage long-term• Funding risk• Reputational risk

• Bring knowledge to researchers• Weaker USP• Stronger competitors• Reliance on partnerships• Multiple funding sources • Stronger position in global

research• USP is digital content• Retreat from public consciousness• Reliance on partnerships

ILLUSTRATIVE

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Phase 4: Strategic roadmap

How do we get there?

Scenario 2

10 years

Worksteps 1 2 4 6 10

Text

• Text

• Text

1 2Month 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

What is the critical path?

• Transformation mapping

Tools

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Tool 17: transformation map (mobile operator example)

Polic

y &

Gui

danc

eD

evic

e

Consolidation Construction Adoption Goal

Con

nect

ion

Security Applications and Access Organisation & Process Culture

"We are recognised as the leading exponent of mobile lifestyle in the UK - if businesses or individuals

want to become mobile they automatically come us. Everything

we do reflects our brand."

Laptop refresh roadmap

Mobility device assessment tool

Smartphones only on EBP for corporate users

Rolling laptop refresh & replacement

A smartphone for all corporate users

Standard laptop packages

All employees have a corporate smartphone

Blackberry restricted to leadership team

Mobile device policy

Home working policy

Laptop policy

Remote access policy

Mobile security policy

USB usage policyHome working contract

review

International traveller survival guide

Mobility starter pack

Home working survival guide

All home workers on home working contracts

All staff use the mobile portal for acquisition, support & guidance

New home broadband users on personal

contracts

Replacement of home broadband offering

All new Mobile Connect cards are HSPDA

Free internet access for all employees

Free Hotspot access for all laptops with WLAN

All laptops have HSDPA cards

All laptops have HSUPA cards

Secure USB sticks

Encrypted C: drives on laptops

Password protection on all laptops in pilot group

SMS passcodes

Mobile security installed on all devices

Remote device management

Security dashboard

Trial of desktop Citrix

Middleware supplier selection

Upgrade to BES 4.1

PIM via cradle sync

Mobility Portal

Mobile middleware

SAP mobilisation infrastructure

Outlook 2003 push email pilot

Upgrade to Exchange 2003

Mobile Windows push email

Citrix for office application users

Webmail

Symbian push email

Mobile Messenger

ESS on mobile devices

Mobile access to shared data areas

All applications (with valid

business case) available on

mobile devices

MMO design

Mobility health check process

Mobility grading process

Full time mobility group in IS

Mobility helpdesk

New staff & corporate plans

Mobility health check

Hands-on training centre

Distributed BAU mobility with central

MMO

Change readiness assessment

Mobility roadmap on Messenger Communications plan

Internal mobility demo centre

Office usage assessment

Home working pilot

Leadership team exploit mobile working – case

study

Mobility launch

Mobility KPIs in management dashboard

Mobility use included in staff survey

Real time sales and engineering

organisations

Mobile Extensions

IS Networks HR Marketing Sales RetailMobility Team

Tablet PC in retail stores

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What is a transformation map

•A shared vision of what needs to happen over time

•A holistic framework for long-term transformational change

•A flexible tool which can change emphasis when required

Now

To be

Organisation

Business issues

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Why do we use a transformation map?

•Plot the goals, milestones and priorities needed to achieve a business vision, and break these down into manageable pieces

•Identify barriers to achieving vision, e.g. conflicting initiatives

•Communicate vision and ‘journey’ to entire organisation, build momentum and focus energy towards common goals

Communicate throughout organisation

Core TeamET Board

StaffManagement

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How do we build a transformation map?

Define vision Define focus streams Define phases

• A big first step! • Key focus areas• Keep to a

manageable number

• Consider time frame

• Define measurements

1 2 3

Now

Vision1

2

4

3

Map improvement initiatives

4

• Time phases

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Step 1: define vision

• Major transition to e- collecting and mass digitisation

• Services based on BL collection only

• Majority of customers remote

“Become the digital one-stop shop for researchers to connect to digital content both within and outside our collections”

• Major focus on collecting print• Small scale digitisation• Services based on BL collection

and linking to non-BL collection• Mix of on-/off-site customers

Collection digital + digitisedContent accessed BL-ownedCustomers using St Pancras

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

• Major transition to e-collecting and mass digitisation

• Services based on BL collection and linking to non-BL collection

• Developing tools for research environment

• Majority of customers remote

“Become the one-stop shop for physical content both within and outside our collections”

“Become the primary provider of digital academic content”

ILLUSTRATIVE

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Step 2: define focus streams

‘As is’ ‘To be’

What is impacted?

ORGANISATION

COLLECTING

DIGITISATION

SERVICES

ACCESS

FUNDERS

Who influences?

PARTNERS

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Step 2: define focus streams

‘As is’

Dig

itisa

tion

Ser

vice

s

Access Organisation

Col

lect

ing

Funders / partners

VISION

“Become the primary provider of digital academic content”

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Step 3: define phases

2011 2014 2017 2020

‘As is’

Dig

itisa

tion

Ser

vice

s

Access Organisation Funders / partners

Col

lect

ing

Based on 3 year strategic reviews

VISION

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Step 4: map improvement initiatives

2011 2014 2017 2020

‘As is’

Dig

itisa

tion

Access

Col

lect

ing 30% collection

digitised

20% collection digitised

10% collection digitised

Funders / partners

Ser

vice

s

Organisation

VISION

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Step 4: map improvement initiatives

• Within the focus streams, it is helpful to categorise improvement initiatives by who is responsible

• A simple visual way to do this is to use different colours

• E.g. Finance is green, Marketing is blue, HR is red

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